The Plaguey Dodgers Rotation

Entering the 2017 season, we were talking about two game changing trends – the home run surge and the 10-day disabled list. We’ve talked home runs to death. I think we all get it – players continued hitting record quantities of home runs. The 10-day disabled list also had a big impact on our fantasy games, and no team better exploited it than the Los Angeles Dodgers.

We could spend a couple paragraphs discussing exactly how the Dodgers leveraged the disabled list. Instead, can we just take it for granted that they used it to keep their pitchers fresh by implementing a pseudo seven man rotation? Let’s move on to fantasy implications.

No Dodger pitcher made 30 starts. Not Clayton Kershaw, Alex Wood, Rich Hill, Kenta Maeda, or Hyun-Jin Ryu. Technically, Yu Darvish did, although only nine of them were with the Dodgists. The lack of heavy volume was seemingly by design – those are all good pitchers with durability concerns. No real team should expect any of the non-Kershaws to reach the 30 start plateau, especially if the club wants those pitchers sharp in October. You can toss Brandon McCarthy, Brock Stewart, and Julio Urias into that conversation too.

Fewer starts means less bulk production. You have to replace those starts, and those pitchers are too good to stream in most formats. So they clog your DL slots instead. On the other hand, fresher pitchers theoretically produce better ratios. There are definite pros to a guy like Hill receiving a therapeutic stint on the disabled list. Better to be fake injured than real injured. The downside is a simple managerial headache.

Notably, it’s unfair to describe any of these issues as “fake.” The Dodgers responded to very early indicators of serious injuries. Rather than hope the pitcher could work through the issue with no ill effect, they played it safe. Los Angeles had more than enough depth to take a conservative approach.

Here’s my position on the matter. The new rules clearly intended for teams to exploit the 10 day disabled list. This was always going to happen. The Dodgers did it. It happened. Other teams are going to follow their lead in 2018. Everybody agrees – when it comes to injuries, it’s better to be proactive than reactive.

Fantasy leagues should respond to this by increasing the number of DL slots. Fantasy owners should respond by adjusting their valuations. Using resources like Steamer or ZiPS could overestimate pitcher workloads. In typical 12 team leagues, we all need to be prepared to use the waiver wire. Deeper leagues should load up on volume arms with positive attributes like Trevor Williams or Joe Biagini. With any luck, you’ll catch a breakout or two.

I’d like to spend the rest of this post examining a few clubs poised to manipulate their pitcher workloads. Let’s assume the Dodgers reprise their role as disabled list exploiters.

New York Yankees

The Bronx Bombers have a full five man rotation with reported interest in adding at least one more quality starting pitcher like Darvish. That would presumably push Jordan Montgomery into the sixth starter role. The Yankees have an embarrassment of pitching riches – I count upwards of eight minor league hurlers who could conceivably provide roughly league average innings over a five or 10 start trial. I also wouldn’t mind seeing a few starts from Chad Green or Adam Warren. The necessary depth is present, and they reportedly have interest in expanding upon it.

Cleveland Indians

Another contender, the Indians already have six quality major league starters. Right now, they lack the ridiculous depth of the Yankees, but they’ll have plenty of spot starters to call upon by the time the regular season rolls around.

Los Angeles Angels

After adding Shohei Ohtani, the other Los Angeles club is sitting on seven veteran starting pitchers – all of whom have some sort of injury history. This is a perfect opportunity to balance workload with some creative “injuries.” After building an uber-infield, they may consider adding a cheap ground ball pitcher like Trevor Cahill.

Houston Astros

The world champions have two aces, four mid-rotation studs, and a variety of high impact pitching prospects. Don’t forget Joe Musgrove too. After an abusive 2017 campaign, manager A.J. Hinch might want to reward his horses with a few extra spa days.

Oakland Athletics

The talent isn’t great, but there’s an awful lot of volume present. Why not mix and match?

Atlanta Braves

The #Barves kinda sorta demoed this strategy last season. They’re waiting for somebody from their bulk of upper-minors pitching prospects to take a step forward. Churn and burn baby.

New York Mets

No need for phantom DL stints here, amirite? The Mickey Callaway era may include better pitcher injury management. Considering the combination of depth and past injury issues, the Mets are a prime candidate to work the disabled list.