Author Archive

A Classic Example of My Favorite Ottoneu Strategy

Last night, the Screw Cancer ottoneu league held their auction draft. Twelve owners (and a co-owner) came together to submit competing bids for around 200 players. Well, mostly. I entered the draft with $31 and 18 open roster spots. I vowed to draft only $1 players, reserving a $3-bid or two for the troublesome position of catcher. The result, I’m proud to say, is a pretty shiny roster.

In chats on FanGraphs and Discord throughout the early winter months, I advised countless ottoneu players to trade for expensive, elite players. “Don’t worry about running out of money,” I said. “Draft a bunch of $1 players,” I said. Yesterday’s draft is a perfect example of how to execute this approach.

The league is Screw Cancer. My team is Haliax Chandrian Explosion.

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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 2/19/2019

A transcript of today’s chat is available. We argued about the merits of rankings.

3:55
Brad Johnson: We’ll get this thing going in a few minutes. I got lost in the news of the day and forgot to put this post together.

3:56
Brad Johnson: If you didn’t vote in this morning’s poll, I’d appreciate the info. https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/highly-custom-leagues-a-desirability-pol…

4:01
Big Apple: Do you buy into the Conforto breakout I’ve seen in numerous publications in 2019?

4:01
Brad Johnson: Wasn’t really a breakout. He was good. Then he played injured for half a season. Then he was good again. So I think he’s still a good player

4:02
Brad Johnson: You should expect more than his 2018 production but a little less than his second half production. That’s a very useful fantasy asset and better than his current ADP.

4:02
Reactionary: What does Padres infield look like now?  Does this delay Tatis?

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Highly Custom Leagues: A Desirability Poll

Today’s post shall cover three things in a rather perfunctory nature. Intro complete.

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Highly Custom League: Elimination

With draft season kicking into full gear, this may be the last highly custom league I highlight this winter. Today we’re here to talk about elimination leagues including my own Top Tout Beta. Previous entries in this series covered 2×2 Roto, Split Auctions, Roto-to-HeadRotating DivisionsWAR wars, Category WarsPublic Trade Negotiations, and If Only.

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Highly Custom League: If Only

A couple weeks back, I unveiled my Public Trade Negotiations format. It’s begging to be included as a module in a league that encourages trading. But it’s rather heavy handed to simply say: thou shalt make trades. Instead, the league design should be such that certain resources are only available via your rivals. By George, I’ve got it!

Previous entries in this series covered 2×2 Roto, Split Auctions, Roto-to-HeadRotating DivisionsWAR wars, Category Wars, and Public Trade Negotiations.

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Five Sexy Valentine’s Prospects For 2019

It’s Prospect Week. And it’s Valentine’s Day. So I’m here with five underhyped prospects who could provide sexy fantasy stats. ADPs are from FantasyPros. There’s no further need for introduction. CHARGE!

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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 2/12/2019

The chat is complete. Read the transcript below.

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Top 60 Deep Dynasty Prospects By ADP

It’s Prospect Week at FanGraphs, the most exciting “week” outside of the one dedicated for sharks. I’ll have a chat at 4:00pm ET where we can talk all about prospects for fantasy purposes. In the mean time, let’s lay out some food for thought courtesy of the Dynasty ADP Project.

Please note: my standard for “prospect” may be slightly inconsistently applied. I didn’t bother to confirm rookie eligibility for all players with minimal major league experience. I just eyeballed the list. I might have incorrectly included or excluded a name. Feel free to call me out.

Top 60 Deep Dynasty Prospects by ADP
Rank Player Avg Rank Ovr Rank
1 Guerrero Jr., Vladimir 13 15
2 Jimenez, Eloy 34.25 35
3 Robles, Victor 54.75 51
4 Franco, Wander 60.67 56
5 Tatis Jr., Fernando 61.75 60
6 Tucker, Kyle 71 65
7 Senzel, Nick 89.25 80
8 Bichette, Bo 90.5 82
9 Lewis, Royce 94 88
10 Whitley, Forrest 99.75 97
11 Reyes, Alex 105.5 103
12 Rodgers, Brendan 109.75 107
13 Hiura, Keston 118.75 114
14 Adell, Jo 120 117
15 Luzardo, Jesus 128.25 121
16 Honeywell, Brent 134 122
17 Kieboom, Carter 147 131
18 Alonso, Peter 147.75 133
19 Alvarez, Yordan 148.75 136
20 Trammell, Taylor 149.5 138
21 Meadows, Austin 155 144
22 Kirilloff, Alex 160 148
23 Soroka, Mike 165.25 154
24 Urias, Luis 169.5 156
25 Kopech, Michael 185 169
26 Brujan, Vidal 185.33 170
27 Mejia, Francisco 187.25 173
28 O’Neill, Tyler 188.5 175
29 Calhoun, Willie 191.75 179
30 Sanchez, Sixto 195.75 182
31 Puk, A.J. 201.5 188
32 Valera, George 205.33 192
33 Bauers, Jake 207.75 198
34 Robert, Luis 207.75 199
35 Verdugo, Alex 214.75 207
36 Mize, Casey 214.75 208
37 Keller, Mitch 215 209
38 Riley, Austin 215.5 211
39 Gore, MacKenzie 225.25 219
40 Toussaint, Touki 226 220
41 Hampson, Garrett 233.5 230
42 Jansen, Danny 237.25 234
43 Sanchez, Jesus 249.5 247
44 Cease, Dylan 252.5 250
45 McKay, Brendan 257 253
46 Gimenez, Andres 258.75 255
47 Paddack, Chris 268.25 265
48 Lowe, Brandon 272.67 274
49 India, Jonathan 273.25 277
50 Pache, Cristian 276.5 281
51 Gorman, Nolan 277.5 282
52 Mesa, Victor Victor 278 283
53 Stewart, Christin 283.25 284
54 Greene, Hunter 286.5 287
55 Hayes, Ke’Bryan 297.75 298
56 Lowe, Nate 302 301
57 Bart, Joey 302.75 302
58 Anderson, Ian 303.5 303
59 Madrigal, Nick 304.75 305
60 Wright, Kyle 305.25 306
61 Edwards, Xavier 305.67 308
62 Sheffield, Justus 307 310

There appear to be a few areas where prospects clump together. You can think of these as tiers. What stands out to me is that with the exception of Vladito and possibly a few others, there isn’t a lot of difference in (my) perceived value between the early prospect picks and the guys around pick 300.

What do you think? Let’s chat about it here and at 4:00pm.


How I Spent Too Much Of The Past Week

One of the most successful video game franchises in history is Sid Meier’s One More Turn. It’s a horrifically addictive game in which you manage cities, military units, and other aspects of a society to build the best civilization. Countless millions have lost days upon days of their lives micromanaging in this civilization simulator.

Out of the Park (OOTP) is the baseball nerd’s Civilization. After purchasing the game a little under a week ago, I’ve already played through a two-season scenario (I failed my goals). More on that in a moment. The game offers nearly every historical scenario imaginable and even has real amateur targets available for the 2019 draft. If you want to play non-MLB professional leagues like Honkball Hoofdklasse, you can. Hours and hours of my life have already vanished in a poof of baseball simulacrity.

The singleplayer experience is rich and immersive. I’ve yet to test the most promising functionality – online multiplayer mode. As such, this article will focus on singleplayer mode versus 29 AI franchises. There’s a lot to like, although there are a few eyebrow raising aspects to touch upon too. Even a glowing recommendation – and to be clear I highly recommend purchasing this game – should have some negative comments.

Please note: I was not paid or approached to write this post. 

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Luis Castillo Returns For Life Lessons

Last year, I wrote a piece about Luis Castillo. Even though I liked him, the draft helium priced me out of the room. In the process of drooling about his upside, everybody forgot the myriad plausible scenarios in which he could disappoint us. So I wrote about how it could go wrong.

Here we are in 2019, and it’s as if nothing has changed. A painful first half chilled owners, many of whom cut bait. Those with the patience to hold or the perspicacity to buy low were rewarded with a wonderful second half. Castillo is once again among the most heavily hyped non-ace pitchers in the league.

Today, we’re going to revisit that post, using the classic internet technique of quote – respond. You’ll see what I mean.

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