Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 2/12/2019

Brad Johnson: We’ll start in a few minutes

JoeQuo: Nice

Mikolas: Is there something that shows stats you should aim for from your starting lineup as a total? For example, to finish in the top 3 of runs scored, your team needs at least 1000 runs. That sort of thing

Brad Johnson: You can backwards engineer something of that nature based on your league settings. Since leagues are so non-standard these days, there’s not a lot of value in putting out a general number.

Brad Johnson: You need to take your settings, feed a bunch of projections into a spreadsheet, and sprinkle on some excel magic dust

Joe: Keep 1 at the same price 12 team OBP: Devers or Muncy

Brad Johnson: Muncy me for 2019. If you’re squinting at future years too, then maybe Devers.

Joe: Hi Brad, please help me with my final keeper spot. H2H points league: Conforto in rd 15 or Ohtani DH in rd 20. We have 5 OF spots and 2 UTIL, so position is not really a concern. Thanks!

Brad Johnson: This is challenging without knowing a lot more. If it’s 12 team or shallower, I might take the Ohtani stash. I love Conforto though. I think he’s an easy top 50 pick despite an over 100 ADP.

Brad Johnson: I don’t think I can be more helpful tbh

Brad Johnson: It’s a good conundrum to have – they’re both great long term values.

Tom: Keeper league – Victor Robles for Matt Ohlson?

Brad Johnson: So EZ Robles

BigTuna: After listening to Nick and Sporer, I’m curious what your take is on Merrill Kelly.

Brad Johnson: I’ll be honest, I must be missing something because I just don’t see anything worth fussing over

Brad Johnson: Granted, a near 100 ranking isn’t really “fussing”

Brad Johnson: Yea, I’m not sure why we wouldn’t expect Matt Andriese to get the 5th SP job with Taijuan eventually stepping back in. Sure, teams routinely need more SP so Kelly will get some chances

Brad Johnson: But the skill set isn’t all that exciting. Besides, the Rays don’t just throw away good arms

Brad Johnson: That’s a pretty strong signal

tacopocket: Hey Brad.  Thanks again for the help a couple of weeks ago.  I doubt you remember but I traded yelich for mondesi/suarez.  Now I am agonizing over my 5th keeper.  5X5 12 man auction league ($300).   Can you rank these guys:  $34 cole, $23 rendon, $14 flaherty and $5 wheeler?

Brad Johnson: I’d keep Rendon.

Cheeks: Who do you prefer as a bench bat this year in a points league: Marcus Semien or Kiké Hernandez? I am leaning towards Hernandez because of positional eligibility (2B/SS/OF) and the gains he made in plate discipline last year.

Brad Johnson: I’d bank Semien’s frequent starts

Brad Johnson: You typically use bench guys on days with shallow schedules. If they A’s are playing, you get Semien’s stats.

Brad Johnson: If the Dodgers are paying, chances are Hernandez is not.

Bridge: Would you be able to run a poll to find the average auction inflation for people that have calculated it? Mine came out to $1.27

Brad Johnson: I can look into better polling software for an article. As for JotCast polls, not so much.

Brad Johnson: The ottoneu slack community might have something for you

Brad Johnson: And my ottoneu Discord channel probably has a couple who have calced it too

Brad Johnson:

raymondzink: Would you keep any of $73 betts, $64 sale, $30 realmuto, $28 khris davis, or $27 segura in a keeper league with $300 budget? 6×6 roto with OPS and QS as additional categories

Brad Johnson: I would cut Segura for sure.

Brad Johnson: The others all bear considering depending on your opportunity costs.

Brad Johnson: I’d call those taut prices

Yuca Yuca: Does Garrett Hampson find his way to 450+ PAs this year?

Brad Johnson: That’s the million dollar question, isn’t it?

Brad Johnson: Nobody knows. I can give you my guess (no), but it’s just a guess.

mikerino: Where does  Adley Rutschman sit in the top 100 prospects if he were eligible? 10? 50? 99?

Brad Johnson: Approximately 15 to 25 I think

Brad Johnson: Right now. A goodly number of those guys will graduate.

JR: Any SPs outside the top 20 who would provide a boost in the K/BB category?

Brad Johnson: Many. I’ll go find a few besides Nick Pivetta.

Brad Johnson: Morton, Folty, Heaney, Gray, Porcello, Bundy, Marco Gonzales

Question: I’m on the fence between being a steady contender and a quick re-tooling in a points dynasty. Got offered Adell, Alex Reyes, Porcello and Gennett for Kershaw, Corbin, and Doolittle.

Brad Johnson: I like the idea of turning pitchers into young bats, but this isn’t the right offer. Adell still comes with a wide range of fantasy outcomes. I’d want an even bigger bat. I’m assuming this is a fairly shallow league too (i.e. 12 team?)

reardon: What do you make of Barreto this year?

Brad Johnson: Blocked but interesting.

Brad Johnson: I’ll have late fliers on him in deep formats

Moltar: After the Lindor news broke (he is my best keeper at the best price by far), I was presented with a very fair offer of some surplus draft picks for Carlos Correa. Do I take it? I was hoping to use those picks to package together for a frontline starter (h2h points league after all).

Brad Johnson: I don’t see any reason to panic over Lindor’s injury if you want to explore some alternatives.

dale: Is it a year too early to draft Wander Franco (late round) in a keep 5 league? We can keep in an NA slot, but I don’t want to burn that through 2022

Brad Johnson: Probably, but he’s so hyped that somebody else will grab him

Brad Johnson: Which is fine unless he’s a guy you simply must have

Brad Johnson: I like letting my rivals inefficiently use their roster space and keeper slots

Karen Yost: Thanks for debunking Merrill Kelly been confounding me all offseason. Are you also willing to shoot down Astudillo who doesn’t yet have a catching job, while his adp is starting to drop among C in NFBC he is still being drafted as a C1.

Brad Johnson: I too worry about Astudillo’s role, but the skill set is so unique that it’s hard to completely abandon the wagon

LittleTuna: Jimmy Nelson, yay or nay?

Brad Johnson: Meh

Brad Johnson: It was never assured that he’d repeat his good 2017 last season. Now we have that uncertainty and a linger injury

Mr. Fister: Dynasty farm pick…would you rather have Jazz Chisholm or Jarred Kelenic.  I’m not worried about position, just about offensive upside.  Thanks!

Brad Johnson: EZ Kelenic for me

LittleTuna: Seems like everyone is hedging and splitting projections. No one has given a real hardline stance yet.

Brad Johnson: I mean, they’ll probably use 3 catchers with a lot of rotation

Brad Johnson: And Garver still has options if I’m not mistaken

Mr. Fister: Brujan or Lux?

Brad Johnson: Vidal

zurzles: What did people call the relievers-only strategy in the old days? I feel like it had a handy 4-letter acronym back in the 00s but I can’t find it. Also is that strategy a good look now that SPs throw 4 innings and lose their jobs because they went through a single bad stretch and they play for the Dodgers?

Brad Johnson: That was part of the LIMA strategy (Low Investment Mound Ace)

Brad Johnson: That was when nobody rostered good non-closing relievers

Brad Johnson: And it was possible to own ALL of them because there were only 4 in the league

Brad Johnson: It’s not an effective strategy in a league with 100 relievers throwing upper-90s with wipeout offspeed stuff

Mr. Fister: Kristian Robinson or George Valera?

Brad Johnson: Robinson for me. But we’re talking about two very young players with a wide range of outcomes still

Jim: Does Carter Kieboom make any impact with the Nats this year? 150PAs?

Brad Johnson: I wouldn’t bet on it. Needs an injury to open the door.

Mr. Fister: Too early to pop Jasson Dominguez in long term dynasty minors?

Brad Johnson: Not at all

Ramblin’ Gamblin’: R. Lovelady or Enyel de los Santos?

Brad Johnson: I’ll take Enyel as there’s at least still a chance for a SP outcome.

Ken Giles Right Hook: Gun to your head and you have to take pitching prospects. What type of pitching prospects intrigue you more? Stuff or athletic/command pitchers?

Brad Johnson: I want athletic/stuff pitchers. Like Sixto.

Camden: Who are you taking in a Dynasty roto league with OPS instead of AVG? Eugenio or Devers?

Brad Johnson: That depends on if you’re contending, rebuilding, or somewhere in between.

Brad Johnson: Devers is the better long term asset. Suarez is MUCH better right now

Jim: Is Corey Ray in the same situation needing an injury with that OF in MIL?

Brad Johnson: I don’t think Corey Ray is a major leaguer

Brad Johnson: I see Jabari Blash

Christian: I had a super good question I wanted to ask you on your last chat. I forgot it…

BigTuna: Dammit, LittleTuna, you’re supposed to be with your tutor! Stop posting in chatrooms.

Win later?: How comfortable are you with Vlad, Soto or Eloy being your most expensive auction buy in a start up dynasty?

Brad Johnson: Pretty comfortable. Vladito and Soto are top 10 assets. Eloy is somewhere in the top 30

BigTuna: Any bounceback closers you like this year for cheap(ish) saves? Giles? Melancon? Colome? Knebel?

Brad Johnson: Yes, those guys. Melancon is a guy I’ve been talking about a lot.

Brad Johnson: He’s further distanced from those injuries and the Giants will probably trade Smith and Watson.

Daniel Castro: I’m a first round talent, and don’t you forget it, Bradley.

Vic: If I don’t secure Goldy or Freddie in the 2nd round of a 15 team keeper, do I draft Rizzo early or hope to get Votto or Abreu in 4th? I don’t have a 3rd round pick and Belly is already kept.

Brad Johnson: I would lock in Rizzo. I can’t imagine Goldy/Freddy lasting if there are players off the board.

Brad Johnson: I’m still taking Goldy well within the top 10 personally. I don’t understand why he’s fallen down the draft board after an amazing season

Brad Johnson: It’s nonsense

PB: Does Jeff McNeil’s fantasy outlook improve or get worse with a move to OF?

Brad Johnson: He’s still more or less blocked. The Mets have to decide Broxton is unplayable since Nimmo’s not ideally a CF.

Ken Giles Right Hook: If you like Sixto then you must like the return Miami got for Realmuto? Not concerned about injury?

Brad Johnson: Always concerned about injury to pitching prospects

Brad Johnson: Always.

Brad Johnson: I think it was a win-win swap

Brad Johnson: The Marlins were vindicated for playing hardball in negotiations

Brad Johnson: The Phillies, assuming they eventually sign Harper or Machado, come out as bonafide on paper contenders.

Siri: Are you concerned about Soto’s high ground ball rate? I feel like people are a little too rosy on him. In a h2h OBP categories league with $5 inflation each year, rather keep him or Carpenter?

Brad Johnson: I assume Soto is much cheaper?

Brad Johnson: I’m not bothered by his GB rate.

Brad Johnson: Dig beyond the surface level GB/LD/FB and there’s a lot to like

Brad Johnson: Really optimal launch angles which should support enough HR/FB to routinely top 20 HR. .300/.425/.550 slash lines are only like the 70th percentile outcome

Brad Johnson: And he’s 20

Ramblin’ Gamblin’: If healthy, does Ray Black have a chance to close some games this year?

Brad Johnson: I won’t say no. He’s not exactly a polished pitcher though.

Brad Johnson: Needs to improve dramatically

Brad Johnson: I know he throws hard, but that doesn’t mean he’s a must-be major leaguer

Billy: How many prospects do you typically keep in ottoneu leagues? does it vary with highly ranked prospects v longshots?

Brad Johnson: I avoid longshots altogether

Brad Johnson: I range from 0 to 6 or so

Brad Johnson: Just depends on how many vets my rivals allow me to convert into $2 assets

Brad Johnson: If you search the ottoneu tag, you’ll find my keeper rosters from this year pretty quickly.

Brad Johnson: I wound up with a bunch of prospects in FanGraphs Staff 2 and zero in FanGraphs Staff (1)

Not All Who Wander Are Franco: 10tm. $260 budget, H2H 7×6 (with XBH, OBP, QS).

Trade $5 Haniger and $6 Cano for $9 Taillon and $6 Clevinger? Seems even, but workhorses feel ever-important. What to make of Haniger (lineup) and Cano (Chili Davis)?

Brad Johnson: I like the gamble. Easier to replace those offensive pieces in 10-team

Ben: My league is switching from W to QS this year, and my thinking is that is going to limit quite a few SP targets with how SP is trending. I’m planning to be very cautious on any team using openers, and any pitchers with “3rd time through” concerns, or NL pitchers. Would you discount those type of arms in a QS format too?

Brad Johnson: Yea. Or more to the point, go hog on elite pitchers. But you’ll have a lot of competition.

Brad Johnson: This is why I hate QS leagues

Brad Johnson: You kinda have to go after elite arms. There are only a few Rick Porcello types who sorta fall through the cracks.

Brad Johnson: I don’t like formats that force me to compete for the exact same 15 players as everybody else.

Siri: Re: soto…..soto and carp would both be $18

Brad Johnson: Well, that’s an expensive Soto. What’s the inflation like on future years?

Roy: Any concern at all about Matt Chapman’s injury/surgery having an impact on 2019?

Brad Johnson: Sure, he’s a candidate for a slow start

Brad Johnson: I’m eagerly sharpening my knives to send out 10 offers on May 1

Brad Johnson: (I have 17 leagues, I’m not sending 10 offers to one owner)

Brad Johnson: Do you have any reservations on typical performances out of Kershaw and Altuve this year.

Brad Johnson: I wouldn’t pencil in more than 160 IP for Kershaw

Brad Johnson: That’s still a top 50 outcome

Brad Johnson: Altuve I’m buying as if 2018 didn’t happen

Brad Johnson: Well not quite

Brad Johnson: but I’m super excited to get him around pick #10

Ryan: In FGPTS, how would you rank the following: Freeman, Votto, Rizzo, Goldschmidt?

Brad Johnson: Goldy, Freeman, Votto, Rizzo

Ramblin’ Gamblin’: Do you think Ke’Bryan Hayes will break the Majors this year and offer any value?

Brad Johnson: I doubt he’ll “break” the majors, but he could make an appearance

Brad Johnson: (hilarious, I know)

Brad Johnson: I wouldn’t bank on getting value. He’s more known for his defense than bat. Probably a guy who has to take time adjusting.

Billy: Is either Brandon Finnegan or Jeff Hoffmann worth stashing in a deeper league?

Brad Johnson: Oof, I don’t think so

Brad Johnson: I’d rather try Derek Holland or Shelby Miller tbh

Siri: Re: soto….inflation on either would be $5 per year (contract system).  So a 2 year contract after this year would cost $28 per year. (for context, studs go around $40)

Brad Johnson: I think I’d bet on Soto

Billy: will danny jansen be worth the $3 price tag in 4×4 ottoneu?

Brad Johnson: Very likely

mbriese: Thoughts on Vidal Brujan? Any chance he makes the TB roster at any point this season?

Brad Johnson: I don’t have any saucy scouting takes

Brad Johnson: He’s a heavily hyped man, but I don’t expect a 2019 debut

Brad Johnson: The Rays are… cautious.

Brad Johnson: I don’t even expect to get a look at him in Durham (I live nearby)

JR: Is Danny Janssen worth keeping for $8 in a $260-cap, 1-catcher, 12-team 6×6 (OBP) league? I would love to have a little stability at the position.

Brad Johnson: I think that’s a bit much.

Brad Johnson: You CAN do it, it’s not like overpaying $4 is going to cripple your draft.

Brad Johnson: Strategic overpays at weak positions can be fine.

Brad Johnson: So long as you’re getting enough value elsewhere.

Angus: What’s your take on Julio and Luis Urias this year?

Brad Johnson: I love Luis in dynasty formats as he’ll probably progress slowly

Brad Johnson: I like guys who have a high floor but aren’t flashy upon reaching the majors

Brad Johnson: Makes it easy to buy them cheaply and profit later

Guest: How would you rank the following SS prospects for fantasy value in a 14 team OPS league: Andres Gimenez, Luis Garcia (PHI), Luis Garcias (WAS), Marco Luciano, Gavin Lux, Sherwyn Newton

Brad Johnson: Luis Garcia, Andres Gimenez, Marco Luciano, Luis Garcia, Gavin Lux, Shervyen Newton

Brad Johnson: We’re talking like next 6 years though, right?

Brad Johnson: If you’re looking at more instant gratification, Lux, Garcia, and Gimenez are much closer to the majors.

mbriese: Who would you prefer as a late round grab in a dynasty keeper league – Jo Adell or Jesus Luzardo?

Brad Johnson: Adell for long term value. Luzardo for 2019 production.

Austin Barnes: Worth owning as a C2?

Brad Johnson: In a sufficiently deep league, sure. Maybe not for 12-teams

Brad Johnson: I don’t have him as a late-draft flier

Brad Johnson: Just to see if anything happens

lgm: dominic smith–big enough MLB sample size to forget about as productive player?

Brad Johnson: I wouldn’t completely cross off his name, but he’s more of a guy to watch list than own

Guest: I’ve got next pick in my dynasty league, who do I go with? Waters, Bohm, Hampson, Gimenez, Lux, Luciano on the board

Brad Johnson: if the league is deep, I’d do Luciano. He’s the most likely of those to turn Wander Franco hypemon

Brad Johnson: A shallower format makes the near-majors guys like Hampson and Gimenez more attractive

Ay: In dynasty leagues for rebuilding teams, do you think it’s better to sell Kluber now or later? People are concerned on his future, will that be more or less so as we approach the All Star Break?

Brad Johnson: You should be continually shopping him. The sooner you can sell him the better. Even so, it’s not a sell-at-all-costs scenario

Brad Johnson: You need an offer to pass a certain point in quality.

Brad Johnson: The Realmuto trade is instructive

Also Paul: I take it from your response above that you’re not concerned about Matt Chapman for the 2019 season overall (outside of slow start potential)?   [selfish part of the question] – i’m picking between him at $4 and a $25 Cole (or $11 Clev) for my 7th/final keeper in a keep forever.  Heavily leaning to keeping Chapman and just redraft Cole/Clev at a $10 premium . . .

Brad Johnson: I think that’s a reasonable approach

Brad Johnson: Nor do I think taking Cole at $25 is wrong either (without knowing a lot more).

Brad Johnson: Frequently, our final choices are a variety of good scenarios

Ken Giles Right Hook: In the spirit of opportunistic trading… How did I do in trading my James Paxton? I traded Paxton for Diego Cartaya and Luis Patino

Brad Johnson: That’s a big investment in 2023

Brad Johnson: I wouldn’t have traded my dynasty share for them, but that’s because I’m heavily win-now. I fully plan to ride Paxton until he’s dust.

Brad Johnson: There’s a chance you’ll almost immediately win

Brad Johnson: I’m edgy about Paxton the Yankee

Brad Johnson: feels like the range of outcomes is between unplayable to top 5 SP

Ken Giles Right Hook: BTW for the Paxton question my league’s ageism is strong and Patino as the centerpiece was my best offer

Rob: How valuable is Muncy in a dynasty league? I know you are a believer, but is he any more valuable than Hicks or Pollock?

Brad Johnson: Probably not

Brad Johnson: Maybe the same asset class. Depends a bit on use case, but I’d usually bet on Pollock > Hicks > Muncy

Brad Johnson: Alright the comments are slowing down and I started a bit early so I’m going to call it

Brad Johnson: Time to wrap up!

Ben: Re w/QS: Thanks, elite is where I was thinking I may need to go. Here is a crazy question… I have the #1 pick, any chance that pushes consideration for Scherzer (DeGrom/Sale) over Trout?

Brad Johnson: I would almost never not pick Trout

Brad Johnson: And the almost scenarios are entirely composed of Acuna and Vladito

Brad Johnson: League would have to be insanely designed to make a SP preferable

Ken Giles Right Hook: Wait! We can’t end before I feel better about getting Reynaldo Lopez! lol

Brad Johnson: Did you ask a question about him? I didn’t see it 🙂

Ken Giles Right Hook: I don’t care if you like him…. Sell me on Reynaldo Lopez

Brad Johnson: Well…

Brad Johnson: the points in his favor are velocity, solid control/command, improved K-rate in the 2nd half, and a silly division

Brad Johnson: the best team has two offensive players

Brad Johnson: I could see taking a $1 flier in case he discovers some way to use his repertoire more effectively.

High 5 Ghost: What do you expect from Julio Urias this year…?

Brad Johnson: Mostly bullpen innings?

Big TW: What’s your take on Ke’Bryan Hayes?

Brad Johnson: Already been here. Near-term the defense is a strong skill than his bat.

Mike: In a dynasty startup auction league, what would you recommend the hitter/pitcher split be? I am in one and I have found myself at 75/25%. 16 team league, and I don’t mind my staff (Marquez, Tanaka, Hendricks, Pivetta, Darvish, Keuchel).

Brad Johnson: Yea, it should be pretty extreme imo

Brad Johnson: Maybe 85/15

Brad Johnson: But if everybody is doing that, pushing to 65/35 can give you an acey staff

Brad Johnson: so… like everything, it depends

Blind : Cole tucker outlook similar to Hayes?

Brad Johnson: No. I don’t see them as comparable.

Scotts Tots: Carlos Rodon expectations for 2019? Decent or trash?

Brad Johnson: There’s a lot of middle ground between those two

Brad Johnson: And he’ll probably be in there.

JD: Betts for Vlad Jr. straight up in dynasty. Who ya got?

Brad Johnson: In my deeper dynasties, I’d take Vlad

Brad Johnson: Shallow, go Betts

Sam: I see Trea Turner being consistently talked about as a 1rst round pick, and last year top 5. Both years on the Fangraphs auction calculator for 12 team roto obp leagues they had him actually returning late 2nd value. Do you think he should be shaded in obp leagues? If not, why?

Brad Johnson: The OBP wrinkle hurts as it takes a plus category and turns it neutral

Brad Johnson: So yea, shade into the early 2nd maybe

Brad Johnson: A roughly 100/20/70/45/.340(OBP) line is still amazing

Turgid: How do we know you’re the real Brad Johnson?

Brad Johnson: The better question is how do you know I’m A real Brad Johnson

Brad Johnson: there are a lot of us

Brad Johnson: and on that note, adios