Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 2/19/2019

A transcript of today’s chat is available. We argued about the merits of rankings.

3:55
Brad Johnson: We’ll get this thing going in a few minutes. I got lost in the news of the day and forgot to put this post together.

3:56
Brad Johnson: If you didn’t vote in this morning’s poll, I’d appreciate the info. https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/highly-custom-leagues-a-desirability-pol…

4:01
Big Apple: Do you buy into the Conforto breakout I’ve seen in numerous publications in 2019?

4:01
Brad Johnson: Wasn’t really a breakout. He was good. Then he played injured for half a season. Then he was good again. So I think he’s still a good player

4:02
Brad Johnson: You should expect more than his 2018 production but a little less than his second half production. That’s a very useful fantasy asset and better than his current ADP.

4:02
Reactionary: What does Padres infield look like now?  Does this delay Tatis?

4:02
Brad Johnson: I don’t think so, but I always assumed Tatis would get Vladitoed unless the Padres need him for contention

4:03
Brad Johnson: In that sense, Tatis may be closer to the majors now

4:03
Brad Johnson: It doesn’t much matter where Machado/Urias play between SS/3B

4:04
Bruce: Brad Keller is either your relative or your favorite player. You dont find that having someone throw 120 innings of 6.5k/9 a huge hole to dig out of? Yes you can use 10K+ relievers, but so does everyone else

4:04
Brad Johnson: I’m not even the highest on Keller. Talk to Jeff Zimmerman if you want to chat with somebody in dripping love with him.

4:05
Brad Johnson: I only think he’s a playable late draft guy, a spot which will probably turn into a streamer in most 12-team formats

4:05
Brad Johnson: I’ve been trying to trade a 34th round pick for him in a 20-team dynasty

4:05
Brad Johnson: These are hardly outlandish valuations

4:06
Brad Johnson: That said, I do see about 7.7 K/9 with positive value ERA and WHIP in 12-team (and no wins)

4:06
Brad Johnson: The stuff was better than the strikeout rate last year

4:06
Centerfield: Are you buying the Nick Senzel possibility of breaking camp with the Reds?  And if so, expectations for a full season in his rookie year?

4:06
Brad Johnson: Not really, he needs some injury help at this point

4:06
Jack: Can Glasnow finally reach his projected phenom status in year 2 post Pittsburgh?

4:07
Brad Johnson: Nah, at best he’s bad Lance McCullers

4:07
Brad Johnson: I’m not confident he’ll average over 5 IP per start

4:07
Brad Johnson: or follow

4:07
Nelson: Do you think the scarcity of top round 1B options is a blip or a real baseball trend that will last for a long time? I dont see too many young 1B sluggers on the horizon.

4:07
Brad Johnson: Blip

4:08
Brad Johnson: What you’ll see is some of these big slugging middle infielders sliding to 1B. Like Daniel Murphy.

4:08
Rusted Root: As a White Sox fan, talk me off the ledge

4:09
Brad Johnson: At least you’re not a Phillies fan?

Bryce or bust now for #Phillies? Here’s Matt Klentak’s take on that idea:
19 Feb 2019
4:09
Brad Johnson: So much for stupid money

4:09
Brad Johnson: I never really thought Reinsdorf would pony up the $300MM. Sounds like he at least made a competitive offer in the end.

4:10
Andy: Dealt an expensive JTR and Snell and a fair market value Correa for ultra cheap Scherzer/Clevinger/DeJong.  12 tm 5×5 Dynasty. I did okay, no?

4:11
Brad Johnson: That’s a complicated swap…

4:11
Brad Johnson: In that you accomplished your goal of cutting costs, I think you did well

4:12
Brad Johnson: You seem to give up both present and future production to accomplish it, but we’re missing the players you buy with the savings

4:12
Daniel Castro: I’m in the Dodgers’ system now. Will they be the ones to let me mash, Brad?

4:12
Brad Johnson: Hey, if anybody can teach you how to mash, it’s the Dodgers

4:12
Brad Johnson: That’s an automatic 5 point increase to power on the 20/80 scale

4:13
Not Ben Kaspick: Who are you targeting in the Screw Cancer draft tonight?  Asking for a friend

4:13
Brad Johnson: Have you looked at my roster? I’m picking like 13 $1 players or something

4:13
Brad Johnson: I’ll do the prep during the draft while y’all bid like animals

4:13
Ryan: What are some post 250ADP arms (besides Brad Keller) you like as SP depth?

4:13
Brad Johnson: hah

4:15
Brad Johnson: In no particular order: Zach Eflin, Steven Matz, Trevor/Taylor Williams, Kyle Gibson, Trevor Cahill, Marco Gonzales, Anibal Sanchez, Mike Soroka, Luke Weaver, Michael Fulmer, Touki, Stroman, Woodruff…

4:15
Brad Johnson: It goes on, that’s just the guys rated 250 to 325

4:16
Brad Johnson: There’s no shortage of back end patches this year. Looks like a deep post-Glob to me

4:16
Planet Dust: For those of us dealing with innings cap the low k rates make otherwise decent pitchers unplayable. May be some source of disagreements.

4:17
Brad Johnson: True, though this all depends on your roster. If you have a bunch of 10 K/9 SP, you can protect your ratios with a 6.5 K/9 guy and still lead Ks.

4:17
Vegan Man!: Nimmo and Arrieta or Porcello in a 14 team dynasty points league? Thanks!

4:17
Brad Johnson: Nimmo and cut those SP?

4:17
Brad Johnson: Seriously though, Nimmo is an asset. The other two are just veteran guys.

4:17
Mannywood: All this talk of Manny arriving in SD, how about some catcher talk?  What are your thoughts on a full season of Francisco Mejia?

4:17
Brad Johnson: Not what you want to hear.

4:19
Brad Johnson: He had serious contact issues last year. He got WAY worse as a batter.

4:19
Brad Johnson: There’s a reason the Indians sold

4:19
Brad Johnson: The good news is I think he probably just over-sold out for power

4:19
Brad Johnson: and that should be fixable

4:19
Brad Johnson: But it could take years

4:20
Brad Johnson: Take a flier anyway since catcher is a wasteland

4:20
chet: 5yr of Mondesi for 5 years of Puig & 1yr of Bogaerts. 6×6 (walks). $$ immaterial. Which side do you like?

4:20
Brad Johnson: If you’re contending, gimme the Bogaerts side

4:20
Brad Johnson: Otherwise, gamble on Mondesi

4:20
Wilfredo: Sooooo….. is there a possibility of ZERO current suitors for Harper now?

4:21
Brad Johnson: Nah. He’ll get $320MM or so from the Phillies when the dust clears

4:21
Vegan Man!: How high would you bump up Gallo in an OPS roto league? 2 rounds? Thanks!

4:22
Brad Johnson: Um…

4:22
Brad Johnson: I have a link for you. Find Gallo’s name.

4:22
Brad Johnson: That’s not an optimized assessment. I just used the base inputs.

4:22
Brad Johnson: But you’re going to find Gallo is a top 10 hitter in most permutations you run.

4:23
Dynasty Q: Dynasty Question: How do you handle awful trade offers from the same team repeatedly, even in spite of feedback that you’re not interested? (For example, received an offer of Tanner Roark and Tim Anderson for Mookie, which was one of the better offers haha).

4:23
Brad Johnson: No comment rejections for about 3 times

4:23
Brad Johnson: Then just leave it open

4:24
Brad Johnson: And if you’re feeling like a real ass, make them think you’re close to pulling the trigger

4:24
Brad Johnson: Honestly, I’d probably do more of that if I had the time.

4:24
Brad’s left pinky toe: What are your thoughts on Eddie Rosario’s 1st half/2nd half splits last year?

4:25
Brad Johnson: I wouldn’t fuss about them. There’s no obvious explanations like with Conforto or Cesar Hernandez. So it’s probably just statistical noise

4:25
Brad Johnson: He *looks* like a streaky player to me, so don’t be surprised if he has ups and downs again

4:25
Dyna-steal: keep forever, keep all league.  In trying to simplifying a 10×10 league. Best category to drop in given todays game (opener strategy), IP, W, or QS?

4:26
Brad Johnson: Keep IP and maybe combine W and QS into W+QS

4:26
Brad Johnson: There are various formulas you can use if you’re on FanTrax

4:26
Joe: 12 team points, pick 2: $11 Conforto, $11 Gallo, $21 Albies, no negatives for strikeouts.

4:26
Brad Johnson: EZ Conforto+Gallo

4:26
Brad Johnson: Super EZ

4:26
Brad Johnson: dump that Albies noise.

4:27
Catcher in the Rye: D.Jansen or F.Mejia as starting catcher in a 15-team league?

4:27
Brad Johnson: EZ Jansen

4:27
chet: does it kind of make sense to handcuff ryu and stripling?

4:27
Brad Johnson: Absolutely, I love both of them as targets because they’ll likely give you playable IP when on the field

4:27
Brad Johnson: I’d rather have 80 very good IP than 190 decent IP

4:27
No Collusion!: How would you tackle pitching in a startup dynasty?

4:27
Brad Johnson: Generally I ignore it for the early portion of the draft

4:28
Brad Johnson: If I’m trying to contend early, I’ll build a rotation out of guys like Anibal, Derek Holland, and Mike Minor

4:28
Brad Johnson: i.e. late no-value picks

4:29
Brad Johnson: The spots you would usually use on guys like Snell and Nola go to elite position player prospects like Tatis, Royce Lewis, etc.

4:29
Brad Johnson: Use pop up middle relievers like Ryan Pressly to trim the fat off the ratios and add k’s

4:29
Brian: Why are people doubting Chapman?  Should I keep Gleybar over him in a ten team H2H?

4:30
Brad Johnson: Matt Chapman? There’s some concern about the various injuries he’s recovering from. Seems like a slow start is possible.

4:30
Bad Timing: So…just did a draft yesterday and punted pitching early and ended up with CMart as my #2…how screwed am I?

4:30
Brad Johnson: It doesn’t look good.

4:31
Brad Johnson: If you work hard on managing your pitchers and using good RP, you might be able to salvage things. Especially with the right opening/follower plays

4:31
Brad Johnson: It won’t be easy, and you might make things worse rather than better

4:31
Planet Dust: Trying to decide 5 keepers. When I run the auction values tool, it makes Gary Sanchez look super valuable. Based on ADP, Rendon, Buehler, Hoskins all look like better choices. What’s up?

4:31
Brad Johnson: Catchers get a big boost for position scarcity

4:32
Brad Johnson: I’d take the 3 you mentioned over Sanchez

4:32
Brad Johnson: They’re super high floor plays

4:32
Brad Johnson: Aside from injury scenarios

4:32
Brad Johnson: Sanchez could match Hoskins as a C which is hugely valuable. He might also hit .190 again.

4:33
Dave: Can you characterize those poolies who favor slow draft vs quick pick drafts

4:33
Dave: Which is better for newbies?

4:33
Brad Johnson: I’m not sure what the first question means.

4:34
Brad Johnson: I prefer slow drafts as it lets me prep during the draft. I think it’s an easier format for every circumstance.

4:34
Brad Johnson: I prefer any snake draft to be slow. Auctions should be fast because otherwise they’re interminable.

4:34
Desirability Poll: Hey. Re your desirability poll – as a non-twitter user, I wasn’t able to vote. Just FYI.

4:35
Brad Johnson: Yea, that’s a drawback to my various polling tools. Better Twitter than Patreon.

4:35
No More DL: What’s the time?!?!  It’s time to get IL!

4:35
Brad Johnson: Pssh

4:35
Brad Johnson: MLB is absurd sometimes. They can change the disabled list, but the Braves fans still tomahawk chop

4:35
Bob: Vogelbach interesting?

4:36
Brad Johnson: In super deep leagues. I picked him for my Spring Training league. He led in hitting last year.

4:36
Pitching : Can you contend in a league where starting pitching is an afterthought?  Build a solid offense, solid RP, but try & skate on mid-tier/low-tier starting pitching.  Roto league

4:36
Brad Johnson: Absolutely. It’s the not the easy way to roster building in this era of ultra-deep offense

4:36
Bill: Yandy Diaz… do you think he has a mini breakout this season and becomes useful for fantasy?

4:36
Brad Johnson: In a sufficiently deep league

4:37
Brad Johnson: I think for 12-team, his best use is as a AVG streamer

4:37
Brad Johnson: Since he lacks HR or SB

4:37
Brad Johnson: I don’t think the Rays will teach him to hit fly balls.

4:37
Brad Johnson: In fact, I think they want him around to pair against fly ball pitchers which are pretty common in the AL East.

4:38
Brad Johnson: In which case they’ll want him to keep the GB swing

4:38
Brad: 20 team Keep forever categories. Is my JD for Chapman and Eloy a fair deal? Which side wins? Is JD and McCullers for Chapman and Eloy too much?

4:38
Brad Johnson: Matt Chapman? Aroldis?

4:39
Brad Johnson: Assuming Matt, I really like that kiddie side of the swap. Either scenario.

4:39
Brad Johnson: JDM is obviously incredible so I could see passing for 2019 purposes

4:39
Brad Johnson: Psst, this is the kind of offer I want for JDM in Devil’s Rejects

4:39
FreeMason: Follow-up: are large swings in perception over classes of players (prospects vs. vet pitchers vs. vet hitters) a common occurrence in dynasty leagues?

4:40
Brad Johnson: Not really, unless you’re starting with a league of newbies

4:40
Brad Johnson: Then they might learn to adjust their redraft preferences en masse

4:40
Brad Johnson: But the idea that young hitters are everything and all else is noise is pretty firmly entrenched

4:40
Brad Johnson: To a way over-extreme

4:40
resumeman: Will Fangraphs be hosting the SaberSim DFS projections again?

4:41
Brad Johnson: I hope so. I haven’t heard otherwise.

4:41
Vegan Man!: Would you rather have Xander or Blackmon in a 12 team OPS roto? Thanks!

4:41
Brad Johnson: Blackmon for 2019

4:41
Desirability Poll: Maybe that makes me less of a human, though, so no biggie?

4:41
Brad Johnson: Or more? (re: no twitter account)

4:42
Brad Johnson: I hate Twitter. I wouldn’t have any social media if not for work.

4:42
Bad Timing: Think Reyes gets the open rotation spot now? Thoughts on his value if yes?

4:42
Brad Johnson: I think they’ll acquire a guy. Reyes maybe has 100 IP to give this year

4:42
Antonio Brown: Jose De Leon have any impact this season? He was pretty big prospect before TJ.

4:43
Brad Johnson: Overhyped. He was a fringe swingman/reliever whose MiLB stat line confused a bunch of folk

4:43
Brad Johnson: Was never actually a good fantasy prospect

4:44
Brad Johnson: I think he’s out until May/July if memory serves

4:44
Brad Johnson: Maybe a follower once he’s back?

4:44
R Sauce: Struggling with my last keeper between Albies in the 8th and Carpenter in the 11th. Other keepers are Betts, JDM, Bregman, 12 team.

4:45
Brad Johnson: I’d do Carp.

4:45
Ancient Mariner: Do you believe Nelson Cruz is good for 30hr and 100rbi this year?

4:45
Brad Johnson: More or less

4:45
Mr_Pine: Can you list your favorite of these 3 in order for fantasy purposes, please.  Bunes, Paddack, Keller.

4:45
Brad Johnson: Who did you mean by Bunes. My brain isn’t autocorrecting that for some reason.

4:45
Brad Johnson: Paddack is miles ahead of Keller.

4:46
Jung Ho Kang Bang: Can you justify targeting de Grom over Scherer or Sale in an auction?

4:46
Brad Johnson: If you take a shrug approach to pitching, they’re similar enough to not fuss about which one you get

4:47
Brad Johnson: You could torture an argument that he’s less risky because he’s not as old as Scherzer and doesn’t have a recent scare like Sale

4:47
Brad Johnson: But that’s pretty specious.

4:47
2019: Any bold predictions for fantasy this year?

4:48
Brad Johnson: Oh yea. We’ll be posting those in the coming weeks

4:48
Who’s on First?: Whitley, or Luzardo – bigger fantasy impact in 2019?

4:48
Brad Johnson: Flip a coin

4:48
Brad Johnson: Same asset class, similar opportunity

4:48
Grimace: Where do you fall on the Mondesi spectrum? Avoiding him entirely b/c he’s an expensive Villar or will you be sure to pay the premium to grab a few shares?

4:48
Antonio Brown: Does Mondesi have more value by the end of 2019 than Segura?

4:48
Brad Johnson: So I wrote about this ages ago.

4:49
Brad Johnson: I think the crux of it is that my interest is entirely situational

4:50
Brad Johnson: Usually, we’ll get to the point of the draft when it’s Mondesi’s turn to go and I won’t see his name

4:50
Brad Johnson: If I have a ton of AVG/OBP and a need for speed, he might be my top target

4:50
Brad Johnson: I’m more willing to throw the dice in keeper/dynasty scenarios

4:50
Limp Stick: Do you have an overarching strategy for SP this year? Are you a barbell method purist of grab’em at the extremes of top & bottom to avoid the middle?

4:50
Brad Johnson: I have 17 rosters so my approach is diversification

4:51
ESPN: What’s the most overrated trend in fantasy? Any that you look to exploit in drafts and leagues?

4:51
Brad Johnson: Some of my colleagues are FINALLY realizing that tiers are nonsense sauce

4:51
Brad Johnson: We’ll see how much longer until they join me on the “rankings are horseshit” bandwagon

4:52
Brad Johnson: ANY form of groupthink you can identify is exploitable

4:52
Brad Johnson: When you go against the grain, you can afford to be a little inefficient because you aren’t competing identically for resources

4:52
Brad Johnson: And if you manage to go contrarian AND efficient, you’ll crush

4:53
Who?: The young kid Poche in camp for Tampa Bay – early spring hype?  Nothing else to write about, or legit under the radar bullpen arm?

4:53
Brad Johnson: Is he under the radar? He’s the most talked about relief prospect since Seranthony.

4:54
Meat Sandwich: How many picks should go between Andujar and Castellanos in a redraft?

4:54
Brad Johnson: :slowgrin:

4:54
Brad Johnson: Nick Castellanos should be picked before Miguel Andujar

4:54
Marlin Man: The old Marlins regime wouldn’t be scared to move a young pitcher quickly through the minors – that said, any chance we see Sixto in 2019?

4:55
Brad Johnson: Seems unlikely.

4:55
Pat: Just became a patreon subscriber…really enjoy your work!

4:55
Brad Johnson: Awesome, great to have you. Be sure to check out the Discord community. Everybody there is friendly and helpful. They know their stuff too.

4:55
Chris: Do you know of any new stats similar or more advanced than wrc+?

4:56
Brad Johnson: Are you trying to get a FanGraphs writer to say DRC+?

4:57
Brad Johnson: My main gripe with BPro stats is they do these one week blitzes where all you hear on twitter is DRC+ this and that, then they’re never referenced again

4:57
Brad Johnson: They’ll tell us it’s a good stat, but they won’t tell us exactly how it’s formulated.

4:58
Brad Johnson: I’m mistrustful of hidden math.

4:58
MC Squared: trying to trade jon gray and yu darvish in dynasty…what hitter or pitcher could i reasonably move them for>

4:58
Brad Johnson: You might get something reasonable for Gray from the right opponent

4:58
Brad Johnson: I think you should hold Darvish

4:59
Brad Johnson: Because right now you can get like maybe Jonathan Schoop or another similarly busted player

4:59
Brad Johnson: But if he rebounds, he’s a top 15 pitcher in a pitching starved league

4:59
Brad Johnson: (I actually like Schoop’s rebound potential if that’s on the table)

4:59
Hey Zeus: NL only keeper league.  Pick 6 to keep Ozzie Albies, David Dahl, Wil Myers, Michael Conforto, AJ Pollock, Corey Seager, Miles Mikolas, Patrick Corbin, German Marquez.  Thanks!

5:00
Brad Johnson: Oof, that’s a lot of nice names

5:00
Brad Johnson: Albies, Conforto, Pollock, Seager, Corbin and choose your favority

5:00
Brad Johnson: I left off Myers because I think a trade to the AL could come this season

5:00
Brad Johnson: Marquez is lovely but Coors Field is not

5:01
Brad Johnson: Mikolas is maybe a little too command dependent for my liking (see Hendricks)

5:01
Brad Johnson: And I’m a renowned Dahl Doubter

5:01
Baseball THOT: Is David Dahl going to break out this year or will I continue to live with broken dreams?

5:01
Brad Johnson: He’ll be fine if they let him play

5:01
Brad Johnson: I expect him to fall well short of lofty expectations

5:01
E: If you don’t use rankings or tiers, what do you use? ADP? Isn’t that just a form of rankings?

5:02
Brad Johnson: I draft stats

5:02
Brad Johnson: and optimize for needs once those become apparent

5:02
Buston: Any chance Buxton becomes something of what was expected?

5:02
Brad Johnson: He could be pretty similar to what everybody is drafting Adalberto Mondesi to do

5:02
Brad Johnson: or not remotely playable

5:03
Brad Johnson: At their costs, I’ll prefer Buxton to Mondesi most times

5:03
Brad Johnson: Though you don’t have the luxury of knowing you’ll get Buxton when it’s time to pick Mondesi

5:03
Hey Zeus: I know…

5:03
SP: Are you out on Kershaw and MadBum?

5:03
Brad Johnson: I’m in on Kershaw

5:03
Brad Johnson: Super in

5:04
Brad Johnson: Out on MadBum

5:04
Brad Johnson: Kershaw is like SP10 and still has SP1 potential. There’s a good 20-25% of outcomes that involve a full healthy season and huge stats

5:05
Brad Johnson: And all but the worst outcomes are still top 30

5:05
Nicholas: Hi Brad. I give my Harper for Baez/Severino? 12 team OBP keeper, thanks!

5:05
Brad Johnson: Nooo

5:05
Brad Johnson: Keep Harper in OBP

5:05
Brad Johnson: Baez is a landmine

5:05
Baseball THOT: Which Padres OF are you hyped on? Seems like everyone has a pet cat in that outfield

5:05
Brad Johnson: I’m big on Travis Jankowski personally

5:06
Brad Johnson: Actually, I would bet that I own the record for most mentions of Travis Jankowski on the internet, excluding Padres beat writers.

5:06
Brad Johnson: In all seriousness, it’s an interesting collection of players, but it’s tough to tell which is a starter and which is a backup

5:07
Brad Johnson: they might all be backup quality. They might all be starter quality.

5:07
Guest: Can you explain your take on rankings? You say you draft stats, but are guys listed in an order? Curious as to what you mean.

5:08
Brad Johnson: That’s more of a full article, one I’ve written several times but I don’t recall a corresponding title

5:09
Brad Johnson: In short, I’ll identify what I need, identify the players that fit the need, then sometimes I’ll use perceived ADP (I expect industry insiders to pick differently than my old college teammates) as a tiebreaker when considering multiple options

5:10
Brad Johnson: I understand this no rankings approach can be a point of contention. I’m basically suggesting you become a full time fantasy professional so that all this information is internalized

5:10
Brad Johnson: I’d continue providing rankings if I was one of 5 guys doing it

5:11
Brad Johnson: You have HUNDREDS of alternatives so I see no need to anchor myself to a flawed process.

5:11
Brad Johnson: (I do get nightmarishly anchored to my rankings if I make them)

5:11
Antonio Brown: Does Franchy have a chance in hell to be anything worth rostering?

5:11
Brad Johnson: Definitely a chance. I’d treat him as a $1 flier for now. Be prepared to jump ship

5:11
ke’bryan mays hayes: Musgrove

5:12
Brad Johnson: And his replacement level twin Joe Must Groove

5:12
Defending Tiers: If I don’t have tiers to draft from, how can I draft drunk?

5:12
Brad Johnson: How can you see tiers drunk?

5:13
E: “You have HUNDREDS of alternatives so I see no need to anchor myself to a flawed process.” What do you think we’re asking for? We aren’t asking for your rankings, we’re asking what your draft organization is. Do you just have an alphabetized list of available players and do a “ranking” in your head for the specific need you’re after?

5:14
Brad Johnson: I don’t really understand. I pick the players who fit my needs. I don’t need them organized, the platform does that fine. I just search the name of the player I want.

5:14
Market Inefficiency: Have you noticed any glaring market inefficiencies so far this year? People reaching too high on 1B? Avoidance of SPs on teams that may use openers? Curious what your zigs have been to the relative zags thus far.

5:14
Brad Johnson: I’m heavy on dynasty leagues

5:15
Brad Johnson: So the main thing I’m seeing is too many people drafting scrubby volume vets or hellishly young prospects

5:15
Brad Johnson: There’s a middle ground between 14-year-olds and 35-year-olds

5:15
Brad Johnson: It’s a pretty big middle ground…

5:16
Brad Johnson: On the redraft side, there is a danger of completely missing SP if you pick in the back end of a 15-team draft and don’t take a SP in the first 2 rounds

5:16
Brad Johnson: You almost have to

5:16
Brad Johnson: Or plan to go without.

5:16
Brad Johnson: Which I do think is possible if you’re into enormous risks.

5:17
Dexter: What language should I learn to develop algorithms for baseball analytics and/or get a job with an MLB analytics department ?

5:17
Brad Johnson: I never really finished this step. I recommend asking Alex Chamberlain and/or Jeff Zimmerman. At the very least, you need SQL.

5:17
MC Squared: Jon Gray for Pivetta?

5:17
Brad Johnson: Seems pretty fair. I prefer Pivetta.

5:17
Brad Johnson: Ok, time to wrap it up.

5:18
Caleb Marcus: Been a big baseball fan for a long time, but would like to start playing fantasy. What’s a good first step?

5:19
Brad Johnson: Ideally, you find an active league with people you know. That’s easier said than done. I recommend something simple like 10-team classic 5×5 roto or H2H

5:20
Brad Johnson: There are various places on the internet that could help you find a friendly home. We usually have a league matchmaker spun up around this time of year. I have a channel on my Discord devoted to matchmaking and league formation. Reddit has a sub for that too.

5:20
Pedro: In the long run : Bieber,Lucchesi,F.Peralta,Keller…???

5:20
Brad Johnson: Bieber? They’re similar asset class, but I think Biebs has the best shot to turn into an actual ace

5:20
Brad Johnson: not saying it’s likely, the path is just more visible than with the others

5:21
Telemachus: Inre: missing out on top arms. That’s what happened to Sporer in LABR draft last week. So you think that will be the trend this year…how do you you think that team did without a pitcher drafted above pick 75 and Wheeler/Price leading their rotation?

5:21
Brad Johnson: I don’t recall the LABR rules, but they have their work cut out for them

5:21
Brad Johnson: The Tout Wars Draft and Hold I’m in right now allows NO post-draft moves so I nabbed three SP in the first five rounds.

5:22
Jung Ho Kang Bang: What’s wrong with using rankings or tiers to estimate how much your opponents value players during draft or starting trade negotiations?

5:22
Brad Johnson: Nothing wrong with rankings. I can’t imagine a good way of using tiers for that except as misinformation

5:23
Brad Johnson: I do run into some trouble in trade chats since I approach them from a “I can afford to trade these stats” perspective

5:23
Brad Johnson: Not everybody appreciates the non-standard approach

5:23
Telemachus: Do you have a link for that draft?

5:23
Guest: Keeper?  Hoskins or Correa?  How is Correa’s back?

5:24
Brad Johnson: I haven’t heard any updates on Correa. I’d lean Hoskins.

5:24
E: Ok so you need a player that fits your needs, say you need HRs, how do you choose which player to draft?

5:26
Brad Johnson: This is a complicate flow chart. For one, it’s not about one category. It’s more like “I need 5+ HR above average with +.010 OBP and no more than -5 SB or equivalent.”

5:26
Brad Johnson: Then I’ll queue up everybody who fits the profile or offers comparable value in a different package. For example, I might also consider Joey Gallo and Kenley Jansen.

5:27
Brad Johnson: Then I whittle down to a pick

5:27
Brad Johnson: That’s if it’s a slow draft and I can afford to put 10 minutes into it

5:27
Brad Johnson: For a normal draft, it’s the same process but with more ADP awareness

5:28
Brad Johnson: Nearly all of my snake drafts are slow

5:28
Dirty Water: Chance that Rafael Devers gets to 30/100 this year? last year in 75% of a year he was 21/66…

5:28
Brad Johnson: Seems low. Those are huge numbers.

5:28
Brad Johnson: More of a 75-90th percentile outcome

5:29
Brad Johnson: Alright, time to sign off. Good game folks.

5:29
Telemachus: Thanks! Great start! Lindor and Flaherty could be huge steals! If a second rounder can be a huge steal…but that’s an awesome start!

5:29
Brad Johnson: Grazi. Definitely couldn’t pass Lindor there. I was thrown.

We hoped you liked reading Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 2/19/2019 by Brad Johnson!

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