Author Archive

Fun With Reliever Leaderboards

At some point over the last calendar year, we added K%-BB% in our advanced stats tab. It appeared without warning, and I’ve been using it ever since. The statistic captures pitcher dominance in a way that can be lost using K/BB. For example, Aroldis Chapman’s 4.42 K/BB is good (25th among qualified relievers). His 40.6 percent K%-BB% ranks first by over five percent.

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Fantasy Keeper Decisions: Part Two

I originally planned to write about something different today, but 125 comments have compelled me to revisit yesterday’s topic. I intentionally left out a lot of details, league history, and my own thoughts so you could work on attacking the problem with as little framing as possible.

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Handling Fantasy Baseball Keeper Decisions

It’s time to start talking about keepers. We’ve reached the point in the offseason when fantasy owners have to consider who they plan to keep and cut. While much of the fantasy baseball industry can be fit into neat bundles – for example, the majority of leagues cater to 5×5 roto or H2H – keeper rules are non-standardized. Each league has its own custom assortment of rules, costs, and considerations. With that in mind, it’s easier to teach how to handle keeper decisions than it is to pen a one-size-fits-all guide.

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Replacement Level Depth Revisited

Last week, I tried to puzzle through something that has been bothering me – how depth affects replacement level. Consider outfield and shortstop. Last season, I might be looking at Josh Reddick and Adeiny Hechavarria as my first picks off the wire. I can do something with Reddick. In fact, I actually want to own Reddick. I like his offensive capabilities, even if he’s underwhelmed in recent performances. With Hechavarria, I would desperately seek a replacement.

The post wasn’t my best – I failed to communicate my message. My first gaffe was to create a pre-draft scenario. I probably should have gone with “in a vacuum” since my goal was to explore the possibility of trading $20 for $17. Despite my lack of clarity, the post did generate a lot of useful comments. Today, I’ll try to summarize and incorporate the dialogue.

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Ottoneu Keeper Omnibus

We’re going to do two things today. First, I am gathering all articles about Ottoneu keepers into one semi-sorted place. This should give you plenty of resources to prepare for Cut Day on January 31. We’ll also delve into more keeper related decisions in the next two weeks.

Please use the comments for any ottoneu keeper or roster construction questions. I would like to keep things focused on ottoneu and keepers, but we can delve into other subjects too.

One last reminder: it usually behooves you to hang onto all of your players until sometime near the keeper deadline. I may want to dump my $7 Jason Grilli today, but what if a shark eats Craig Kimbrel’s foot tomorrow?

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Some Thoughts Regarding Holds

Allow me to start by saying that I really dislike holds as a category. Saves plus holds makes plenty of sense – you’re basically telling owners to draft the best relievers regardless of role. Separating the two baffles me – at least in a standard league. I’m sure there are some unusual league configurations where it can work. I don’t like the category, but I still have to live with it in some leagues. What follows is how I cope with with holds.

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Elite, Non-Closers in the 22nd Round

The FanGraphs slow mock is complete – huzzah! While I did not participate, I did occasionally peek in to observe. The 22nd round struck me as curious. Four non-closing relievers were drafted in the round including three names that could have been picked ahead of David Robertson (late seventh round) if they had a closers gig. Let’s take at the value to be had late in the draft.

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Top 107 Redraft Prospects

Prospects are usually the sole dominion of keeper and dynasty league owners. In a redraft league, there is usually hype around a few players. Jose Abreu, Masahiro Tanaka, Billy Hamilton, and Gregory Polanco were among the most popular last year. There were also plenty of useful, under-the-radar types like Jacob deGrom, Kolten Wong, Danny Santana, and Collin McHugh.

What follows is a list of 107 prospects, gathered for their proximity to the big leagues and potential for valuable contributions. There will be names missing, if only because my methodology for hunting down candidates was imperfect. I used FanGraphs’ depth charts, 40-man rosters, and top prospect lists to gather everybody I believed could be a positive contributor in 2015.

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Fantasy Conundrum: Depth At Replacement Level

Imagine you own a $20 outfielder. It’s pre-draft, and he’s the only player on your roster. He costs $20, and he’s projected to provide $20 of value. You’re offered a $17 shortstop who is projected to be worth $17. The projections properly account for position-adjusted replacement level. Would you take the trade?

No, right? You wouldn’t give me a dollar for three quarters, so why should you trade $20 for $17. Who cares about the positions, that’s supposedly included in the price.

Dig down another layer and you might consider the swap. It’s a $3 loss, but perhaps you can make up the ground in-draft. Shortstop is such a scarce position that we’re probably talking about trading the 20th best outfielder for the third best shortstop. Is losing $3 in a trade worth solving the fantasy nightmare known as shortstop?

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Prospect Classes In Ottoneu

Chad Young and I have written a couple times about our general disdain for prospects in ottoneu. It’s not that we dislike all prospects, they’re just rarely a cost effective means to build (or even rebuild) a team. It would be fantastic to own Kris Bryant for $3. Unfortunately, his average price is actually $10 – on par with Danny Salazar and more than Nolan Arenado. Of course, Bryant is a “can’t miss” star. Right? Right!? While prospects of his caliber don’t often fail, it does happen. Given that his owner has probably invested upwards of $20 over the last couple years, Bryant needs to do a lot better than “not fail” in order to be a profitable asset.

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