Some Thoughts Regarding Holds
Allow me to start by saying that I really dislike holds as a category. Saves plus holds makes plenty of sense – you’re basically telling owners to draft the best relievers regardless of role. Separating the two baffles me – at least in a standard league. I’m sure there are some unusual league configurations where it can work. I don’t like the category, but I still have to live with it in some leagues. What follows is how I cope with with holds.
Holds are relatively flatly distributed, meaning that it’s hard to select a reliever who will outperform the crowd. Last season, over 30 relievers recorded between 13 and 20 holds. Only 23 relievers had over 20 holds with only four reaching the 30 hold mark. Pitchers don’t often repeat near the top of the leaderboard – only Tyler Clippard and Joel Peralta have in recent years. Let’s compare to saves.
Saves vs. Holds (2014)
| Number | Saves | Holds |
|---|---|---|
| 40 or more | 7 | 1 |
| 30-39 | 10 | 3 |
| 20-29 | 7 | 24 |
| 10-19 | 11 | 51 |
Last season was typical. A few things should jump out. Saves are comparatively scarce, but it’s easier to find a pitcher who can deliver a lot of them. It comes down to the nature of the statistic. Holds can occur in any inning, but it’s easiest to accrue them with an setup ace like Clippard or Wade Davis. These same relievers are closers in waiting, so if anything happens to the primary guy, they lose their holds (and gain saves).
This dynamic can reward the ol’ running back handcuff approach. If you roster Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller next season, you should get plenty of saves and holds. If either hits the disabled list, just call upon David Carpenter to fill the void. In this scenario, neither Miller nor Betances would reach the 30 holds threshold, but you might still get to 30 holds from Yankee relievers.
In a daily roto league that allows streaming, my preferred approach is to keep a spot or two open and chase matchups with fresh relievers (i.e. guys who didn’t throw the previous day). I want the reliever to matchup well with the opposing lineup, and I want his team to have a decent chance at winning. I’m not going to chase a Pirates setup man if they’re throwing Jeff Locke against Clayton Kershaw. In this type of league, it should be relatively easy to post a high holds total by simply remaining active on the wire. You don’t need to get lucky with a 40 hold guy to take the category.
In H2H leagues, the dynamic changes considerably. Many H2H leagues limit streaming. You’ll want to target more important positions and statistics than holds. Because holds are hard to predict, I usually hope my opponents will waste relief resources on them so I can consistently win saves. Each opponent has different strengths and weaknesses, so it can be relatively easy to pick and choose when to go after holds. If you have a weekly moves limit, plan ahead by picking up setup men on the Sunday before a matchup.
Weekly roto leagues offer the biggest challenge. The opportunity cost of chasing holds is readily apparent – you either skimp on closers or starters. My preference is to approach holds as a Plan B. I don’t want to punt the category, but I’ll probably only target a middle-of-the-pack finish. I deploy my setup men when my starters don’t matchup well or my closers hit the skids.
Points leagues offer a slightly different use case for setup men. You can put more weight on the best available reliever rather than the guy with the best save opportunities. However, if a league is awarding points for saves and holds, you should still prefer closers. Glance back at the grid above. If saves and holds are each five points, you’re more likely to get bulk from a closer. Keep in mind, some of those top relievers contribute to both categories, so the raw numbers reported above can be slightly misleading. Many points leagues – like ottoneu – award more points for saves than holds, which should only further reinforce your preference for closers.
In most leagues, you should only pay for holds if you already would have paid for the reliever. Davis, Clippard, and Ken Giles are a few such examples. I might also target somebody like Clippard who has posted multiple seasons as a top holds guy. Such pitchers are rare – they’re usually either promoted to a closers job or their talent declines.
Who else has holds related strategies and tactics they’d like to share?
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I have played a number of h2h holds leagues. In my opinion, holds devalue all pitchers to a differing extent. Usually when a pitching stat is added, a hitting stat is added as well, so lets say the league is 6×6 and holds is the added pitching stat. All hitters can contribute to the added hitting stat. Starters and closers cannot contribute to the holds category. Therefore, they are devalued and hitters values are increased. And, as you brought up, holds are very inconsistent year to year, and also a very deep stat. Outside of the universally owned middle relievers (i.e. Wade Davis), i would wait until the very end of the draft to take a shot on potential breakouts and scan the waiver wire for the 2015 wade davis.
This exactly.
To counteract this and still expand the player universe, I play in a league that uses weighted saves/holds. So it’s still 5×5, but a hold equals 1/2 a save. In that format, elite closers get a slight bump, mediocre closers and strong holders are roughly equal, next valuable are bad closers/vultures, and then MR that aren’t really getting either. I think it’s a nice balance. We play on ESPN (the league is set up as 5×6 so we can easily track holds and saves separately) and I just have a spreadsheet that automatically updates so people can track the true standings. I wish the mainstream sites would incorporate the ability for something like this, but the spreadsheet works for now.
I think it would be interesting to have a 5×6 league with holds and saves as separate categories. Would keep pitchers from being so devalued
I play in a 20-man league with 5 SP, 3 RP and 1 P spot. We need holds.
One item I noticed in the past is the players who transition from Holds to Saves (Koji a couple of years ago). Can you do the table with a column for Hds + Saves?
We just added saves+holds to my league. I’d really like a column devoted to this, as well. Could be really helpful.
10 40+ (Additions: Melancon, Britton)
22 30-39 (Romo, Allen, McGee, J.Smith, Neshek, Storen)
37 20-29 (Casilla, Benoit, Petricka, Grilli, Hunter, Balfour)
62 10-19
I just want to say that I love your articles that focus on the strategy of fantasy rather than on individual players. Lots of good thinking gets done, in the articles and the comments. Keep them coming.
As for holds, the only league I have that uses them is an ottoneu points league, which I approach pretty much exactly as you suggest. I put only a small premium on closers, though, since an elite setup guy can easily out-earn a mediocre closer, often for less money. If I can, I’ll round out my bullpen with a handful of $1-2 guys with no defined role but solid peripherals, on the theory that they’ll probably stumble into a few holds and will almost certainly give me more points/inning than a back-end starter. Not to mention that any effective reliever has a non-zero chance of falling into a closer role at some point during the season.
My recommendation is to avoid drafting for holds period, but rather to wait ’til about 10 games into the season to see usage patterns and then pounce on the relievers that managers are consistently turning to in the 8th inning – sometimes it’s not obvious prior to the start of the season. Instead use those late round picks on upside hitters/starting pitchers and then decide who you are comfortable with dropping down the road – or maybe a player hits the DL in the meantime and frees up a spot on your roster.
In a deep Holds league I am in, obviously Clippard, Benoit, Peralta were drafted, but no one drafted Davis, Watson, Betances, Miller, Giles etc. last year.
Exactly. The format also leaves a few lower end closer types to be added too since those poor skill closers get undrafted. Occasionally as was the case last year, these turn into K-Rod.
OVerall this format allows you to neglect the whole bullpen at draft time if you wisely use those picks on bats.
So much this. It’s how I ended up with Will Smith last year and he was a gem.
Holds guys can easily (and often do) outperform saves guys in value by a lot (in HSV leagues), when their K and ratios are superior to the saves guys. As in Neshek versus Rosenthal last year.
I’ve run a somewhat non-standard 6×6 for over a decade now. Holds are the sixth pitching category. Also we use Net Wins and Saves instead of gross if you will.
The strategy of our owners has varied greatly over the years. One guys routinely punts the category altogether and is almost always competitive. I’ve personally used it to target undervalued closers who may not have a sure job or committee types. Your Miller/Betances example is a perfect example of the type of players I target.
Basically, as you pointed out it allows you to focus more on ratios and Ks from your bullpen.
I’ve adopted a strategy of alloting my resources to filling out my rotation and lineup while basically ditching the whole bullpen until I see how various pens shake out. Since there’s such a wide variety of approaches toward pitching roster construction, I can find great vlues early. This netted me Andrew Miller and Cody Allen (as well as K-Rod last year in April waivers.
I look for lefties primarily because they will almost always be used in high leverage situations. I also look for guys on teams with good, but either really young or old rotations that will ensure plenty of bullpen usage. Studying historical managerial/team tendencies when it comes to usage is useful too. Using this logic, I always target Yankees.
I love holds as a category because it really adds another element of strategy to building a pitching staff.
I target NL setup men who pitch in pitchers parks when possible since I assume less scoring (closer games) and more pitching changes in NL matchups due to pitchers hitting. NL LOOGYs are good if you don’t care about the ratio aspect since they’re unlikely to pitch to more than one hitter, so impact is minimal.
I avoid teams with a lot of pitchers with the potential to pitch 7-8+ innings.
If I am streaming for holds, I target road teams instead of home teams since if the road team gets a lead in the 8th, the setup man can enter in a hold situation, however if the home team takes a lead in the 8th, there is no longer an opportunity for a hold.
Over the years I have found that the Braves and Cardinals are pretty good teams to target – ultimately it is a crapshoot though.
punt saves, win holds, be at the top of wins/Ks
I play in an NL only league with holds as a category. In the past I have generally punted saves and targeted setup men for teams with shaky closer situations or closers who could possibly be traded at the deadline opening up a spot for the setup man. It’s an auction league so prices for closers are generally higher than setup men are so I could round out a staff of 3-4 RPs that could also fall into some saves for $1-3 per RP.
where do you usually finish in saves using that strategy?
Generally, I finish 5-6 but that’s all I’m looking for. I tend to finish near the top in holds though. I will say its risky but I’ve had some luck with it in the past.
5 or 6 out of 10? That’s pretty good especially in an only league
If you play in a league that uses separate SP/RP slots, it can be a huge boon to have a guy who can get you holds (or saves) from a SP slot. Think Wade Davis last year. Then you get extra holds without using up a RP slot. Just rotate your starters into the leftover SP slots on days when they pitch. Brandon Maurer could be good for this if the Padres don’t move him back to the rotation. Ditto Carlos Martinez.
Additionally, if your league has a games started limit, you can get extra IP (and therefore Ks and Ws and hopefully ratio help) without using up a game started by using a RP in your SP slot.
Can anyone else think of some candidates for this kind of role?
This is how my league works. Mejia and Maurer are two great fits for this strategy this year.
I don’t have any other guys off the top of my head, but I have recently seen how well this can work in my deep league (18 team, category of (2*saves)+holds). Our format obviously changes the math on these setup/closer splits, but getting holds from the SP spot certainly helps.
do you find the best fantasy owners win the league or just the ones that are online every hour of the day?
There is a strong correlation between the two. Not a perfect correlation, but people tend to get better at things when they put a lot of time into it. And usually they stop putting in the time if they don’t have success.
It’s not just a matter of people getting better by putting a lot of time in. Putting a lot of time in is one element of being “good” at fantasy sports. There’s a competitive advantage to adjusting your lineup daily, scouring the waiver wire, staying on top of MLB news, seizing the opportunity to make a good trade, etc. The owner who doesn’t do those things is unlikely to be the “best” owner.
Which isn’t at all intended to denigrate owners who have other priorities in their lives. This is just a hobby and we’re here to have fun, after all. But I don’t think there’s a definition of “best fantasy owner” beyond “the ones that win their leagues.”
Do you find that the best hitters in baseball lead the league in wOBA, or just the ones that live, sleep, eat and breathe hitting?
Usually it’s both, because usually they come together. Ditto with fantasy success.
This reminds of about 2 years old in a league Brad and I am in together. Brad is a transaction machine and was pushing the limits (100 max) trying to caught me in 1st place. I had mad 8 transactions on the season and doubled the number for last day streaming of pitchers once near the IP limit.
There is multiple ways to do it and I look for weekly leagues now that I enjoy not looking at my team every now and then.
I switched to weekly lineups and I like that alot better. It’s not about who is at the computer at the right time, or the most. The daily lineup leagues I was in quickly got dominated by the handful who were very quick. At some point, I felt like a bunch gave up because they knew they couldn’t compete on the wire.
H2H weekly league with a maximum of 50 transactions eliminates the need to be online every day.
In leagues with holds, it is next to impossible to find saves on the waiver wire; every setup man (ie. back-up closer) is already on a roster. This is why the addition of holds as a category can paradoxically help prop up the auction price of back-end closers.
adding holds will devalue all pitchers. Hitters contribute to six categories, starters contribute to 4, closers and middle relievers contribute to 3 each. In a 6×6, it is absolutely impossible to get the maximum pitching points. But it is very possible to get the maximum hitting points.
there’s only 1 save to be had in each game, and very often, there’s only 1 or 2 holds. There are, on the other hand, at minimum, 3 opportunities for each hitter to contribute to each of the 6 hitting stats.
Your argument only holds water if the opportunities for scoring in these categories are the same. Since they aren’t, pitchers can, in fact, become more valuable if you use Holds, as Abreutime stated.
Leagues that use holds do not ever have closers available on the waiver wire, because a back-up closer is not wasting a bench slot not contributing – he’s very often the 8th inning guy or used as a LOOGY when he’s not closing. Racking up holds.
yes, but every hitter has 3 chance to contribute to the six pitching categories. Everyone has 9 pitchers, distributed among SP-CL-RP in some way.
If you gave me the choice of any 14 hitters, I could guarantee you that I would get the maximum hitting points. If I gave you the choice of any 100 pitchers, you still don’t have a chance at getting the maximum pitching points
I think there’s some confusion here about competing effects. Adding a sixth category will make certain players more valuable and certain players less valuable. A 6 category offensive contributor like Mike Trout will be hugely valuable. On the other hand, Marlon Byrd may wind up devalued as a 1-2 category guy.
Adding more categories improves the benefits of a stars and scrubs approach, especially if your leaguemates fail to make the adjustment.
(assuming the sixth category hurts Marlon Byrd) He’ll still be a 2 category player (also just picking a number). Starting pitchers will still be a 4 category position, closers will still be ~3 category players, etc. Yes, it may benefit only some hitters, but I think they take most of their gained dollars from pitchers. It’s hard for a hitter to be a complete zero in OPS, whereas it’s easy for a starting pitcher to be a complete zero in holds.
Brad, this raises a related thought. When moving to a 6×6, that relatively devalues low OPS hitters vs. high OPS hitters. A lot of low OPS guys are steals guys, so does this format slightly devalue steals and/or does it increase the value of steals guys who have a relatively high OPS? I find myself being content with finishing a little lower in steals while trying to finish at the top of OPS, and that requires SB guys with high OPS or fewer SB guys total.
Both. Your Trout and Gomez types become ridiculously valuable while a Bonifacio is borderline unplayable in the OF. You should (usually) prioritize power in any league with OPS and hope to push the SBs into line without sacrificing pop. If you can snag a Dee Gordon type for the middle infield, you’ll be better off since few of your opponents will be producing power from SS.
This format does indeed devalue alot of hitters from what Ive experienced. In particular, as was mentioned, your all speed guys. Typically most hitters are not going to contribute above targeted marks across all 6 categories. Very seldom in fact. I have not found pitchers to be any less valuable than in a typical 5×5.
In our holds league we only start 9 hitters so they also become a little less valuable.
Not including MI, CI while only using 3 OF and 1 CA creates a little better balance. Plus since our league penalizes for losses, elite SP gain even more value.
Point is it really depends on what the other categories are and your lineup requirements.
And to OT’s point about pitching points, you absolutely CAN win all of the pitching points, it’s just a little harder. But if I could cherry pick whoever I wanted and ran out the two best setup men, three best closers and four best starters I would absolutely win every category. Ive actually come quite close before.
do you think you can beat someone who decides to either have 5 or 6 SP, 4 closers, or 3 set up men? not a chance.
Dynasty keeper league with auction; 24 man roster (keep 12); 20 man minor league roster (keep 10) that includes prospects and unpurchased major league active roster players. We switched from a straight saves category to holds plus saves in 2005. Our main purpose for the change was to devalue closers and make middle guys relevant. The change has been a huge success as it achieved our goals. In researching holds, saves, and discussing the category change, we pretty much came to the same conclusions as you. Most teams still prefer a quality closer, but most teams also use a shotgun approach to holds by acquiring middle guys in the major league auction draft and the minor league draft. With holds so predictable from year to year, quantity is the safest bet.
per baseball reference.com “As the hold is not an official statistic, there is no consensus whether a pitcher needs to record an out or pitch effectively to get credit for a hold. Some compilers consider that the mere fact of not surrendering the lead is sufficient, while most observers consider that the other two criteria should also apply. The lack of consensus on this issue means that hold totals vary from source to source.”
I don’t think holds should be a cat in fantasy. I’m gonna have to talk to my commissioner about it.
This point was brought up to me several times when I was still commissioner of my league.
While technically this is true, it is universally accepted that holds require basically the same criteria as saves- 3 runs or less in the lead when entering the game and not surrendering said lead. Now I do not believe it is ever credited as a hold when a pitcher throws 3 innings or more in the middle of a game regardless of lead (as would be true with a save of course) or in the case where the tying run is at the plate or on deck.
The difference comes mainly in how it is treated when a pitcher comes in with a three run or less lead pitches to one batter and does not record an out. Some sources will credit this as a hold, others will not. However these instances are pretty few.
Also keep in mind there are a very limited number of stat sources used by the various fantasy sites so there are a very few applicable definitions.
On a side note, there are other official stats that are recorded differently by different stat sources, namely OBP. I’ve had an issue with CBS’s provider for years. The discrepancy comes in how sac flies are treated. In the official OBP calculation sac flies are to be added back in to plate appearances. However CBS doesnt do this. So point is other stats can also differ sometimes too.
Brad, Thank you for writing an article about holds!!! This was very helpful, even in my holds + saves league. Like you said in the opening line, “you don’t mind it because your basically just drafting the best reliever”
I look forward to my leagues first year with the saves +holds category as opposed to the straight saves, and guys just trying to grab the latest crappy closer.
do all of the mainstream fantasy platforms support S+HLD?
I know for a fact ESPN does in it’s “Custom” leagues. We have switched to it and I’m excited. I think doing it as a “+” category instead of having holds and saves by themselves places a lot more value on great bullpen arms, not just the guy walking out in the 9th.
CBS does too.
I’m in a 6×6 roto league that has both S and H. One effective strategy that I’ve seen is to go with 2-3 starters then load up on 5-6 elite closers/set up guys. Pitching ratios will be strong and you catch up on innings/Ks/Ws later in the season by picking up SPs through trade or streaming. I’ve had great luck picking up sleepers in late Aug and Sept and riding them in matchups. So you finish high in S/H/ERA/WHIP/Ks (thanks to elite relievers) and are respectable in Ws.
My 5×5 20 team roto league voted down the change to holds + Saves which was disappointing. In other leagues we have H, & S separate which is ok, considering it started in 2000 it was “out there in a sort of tubular kinda way” and s+h-bs. I like the last with -blown saves the best.
Almost always my plan for all holds is get LOOGYs @$1 and scan the wire early. For S+H-BS i punt closers and get cheap setup men and loogys only and hope a closer emerges.
I’m in a H2H 6×6 with Quality Starts, WHIP, ERA, K, HLD, SV. It is an auction keeper format and I got so sick of paying up for Closers that I decided to start punting Saves and stacking Holds.
The problem with trying to roster both on a 25 man is that often i would lose both categories…and very rarely win both. Almost always a push or a double loss. The rest of my team is great…so i deduced that in punting saves, I could actually almost guarantee a win in Holds, be ok losing saves…and between the two categories we’re still even. That way the more predictable categories are what decides my matchups.
I’ve always enjoyed holds leagues because there seems to be multiple paths to success with pitching. Speaking h2h here (which I have mainly played), teams either punt saves, completely focus on holds, and try to dominate one category; punt holds, completely focus on saves, again trying to dominate one category; or balance both without trying to dominate either.
Typically I’ve found I’m happiest when I go the route of “punting” saves in a draft. Focus on the high-K/good WHIP holds guys throughout the season. Usually at least a couple of them will graduate to closing, making them either trade bait, or putting you in position to start sniping the saves category on a week-to-week basis. (especially since it isn’t unusual for the good holds guys to also be the guy that gets closer-off-day saves).
Holds guys are much cheaper in your average draft, making them much more disposable if they under-perform or get injured, unlike your elite saves guys, which require a crippling draft pick.
Finally, the reason I like holds and saves as separate categories is that, as noted in the article, closers typically get more saves than other relievers get holds. In a draft you’re definitely better off in a Saves + Holds in drafting the top saves guys (at least from a solely RP viewpoint) since they give you K’s and twice the number in S+H as a holds guy gives you in S+H. I’d rather have two categories to finagle in their own way.
But what I’d REALLY really rather is no saves and no holds. Both categories are pretty substandard; the fact that I’m looking for excuses to punt one of them says a lot.
What about net saves + holds. That should make it easy to target elite rp regardless of situation.
Setup relievers actually blow a fair number of games. Here’s a BS leaderboard.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y&type=0&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=12,d
Notice about half of the guys on the first page aren’t closers.
The obvious problem with counting for saves and holds is that they tend to cancel each other out. My format of choice is 10 x 10 or 12 x 12 category leagues and I still count saves and holds as one category.
Here’s a radical idea: why not have a BULLPEN in fantasy baseball that would be similar to DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS in football? This would make both saves and hold relevant and in effect make a single roster spot for pitching equal (more or less) to the starters.
Rule of thumb about holds guys – they are cheap…they are plentiful …and bullpen roles change quickly, so don’t fall in love with one, and draft them too early. I like to draft middle guys off good teams, with a team track record of lots of holds (some teams have a lot more holds than others). If they don’t work out, there is always going to be one off waivers.
I agree with scanning the wire early. Holds vary so wildly from year to year. You will always be available to find “usuable” holds guys on the waiver wire.
I have a big problem with how holds are calculated though. Why does a guy get nothing for coming into a tie game, not giving up anything for 1-3 innings and leaves with the game still tied? Really, a hold should be awarded for any reliever who doesn’t give up the lead if ahead, or doesn’t give up a run if tied or behind.