Handling Fantasy Baseball Keeper Decisions
It’s time to start talking about keepers. We’ve reached the point in the offseason when fantasy owners have to consider who they plan to keep and cut. While much of the fantasy baseball industry can be fit into neat bundles – for example, the majority of leagues cater to 5×5 roto or H2H – keeper rules are non-standardized. Each league has its own custom assortment of rules, costs, and considerations. With that in mind, it’s easier to teach how to handle keeper decisions than it is to pen a one-size-fits-all guide.
What follows is my keeper conundrum in a non-standard Yahoo league. It’s a points league based on linear weights. We’re basically playing points wOBA and FIP. The rosters are shallow with left, center, and right field disaggregated, five starting pitchers, five relievers, a 1400 innings cap, and a 150 games played cap for position players. We range between 10 and 12 owners. The league was originally formed via Tom Tango’s blog, and typically includes two or more owners from the FanGraphs family.
We’re allowed to keep four players at the cost of previous draft round minus two. So if I picked a player in the 15th round, I would lose my 13th round pick to keep him. We can keep fewer than four players, although I don’t need to worry about that (I did last year). Below are the most keepable players on my roster.
| Player | Keeper Cost |
|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 1 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 1 |
| Adrian Beltre | 1 |
| Jose Abreu | 3 |
| Johnny Cueto | 10 |
| Corey Kluber | 11 |
| Christian Yelich | 13 |
| Edwin Encarnacion | 15 |
| Sonny Gray | 19 |
| Josh Harrison | 23 |
| Joc Pederson | 23 |
| Michael Wacha | 21 |
My assignment for you is to develop a strategy based on this information. For what it’s worth, I know what I plan to do. As much as part of me would like to openly discuss those plans, I also know they’ll affect the plans of my leaguemates. So I’m afraid I’ll have to keep things to myself. I will happily play devil’s advocate in the comments.
To recap, I get four keepers with an attached cost. I’m maximizing points which are based on linear weights. The rosters are shallow and the caps are easily reached, meaning there is scope for platooning and careful game management. For example, I would sit ANY hitter against Clayton Kershaw. If you want to get REALLY into it, I believe the league is public. One more thing: I won the league so I pick last.
I will provide a little more information tomorrow via an update, but I want you to think up the main strategies without too much prompting from me. Remind me if I forget.
How would you handle this conundrum?
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
You should really consider:
Christian Yelich, Sonny Gray, Josh Harrison and Michael Wacha
How could you go wrong?
trollin?
Easy – keep Encarnacion (15), Yelich (13), Kluber (11) & Cueto (10)
agreed
McCutchen/Stanton whoever you prefer are first round picks even without inflation
Abreu 3
EE 15
Kluber 11
The only possible question I see is Yelich over Kluber depending on how hitters vs. pitchers fare
you didn’t say where you were drafting in the first round and who else is available, so maybe you can bank on getting McCutchen or Stanton back in the first round, but I doubt it.
“One more thing: I won the league so I pick last.”
Currently that’s 11th, but I think we’ll add one more owner. Said owner will be allowed to select four cut players from any rosters as their keepers. If we stay at 11, I probably won’t have a shot at them. If we go to 12, they’ll be selected as keepers by the new owner.
that decides it then haha. Have to keep the elite talent
Cutch, Stanton, Abreu, Kluber.
Draft picks and value are great, but it doesn’t matter what pick you have, you aren’t getting a better hitter than those three. Cutch and Stanton at the cost of a third rounder and Abreu at the cost of a fifth, isn’t that a no-brainer?
Sorry if there was confusion. Cutch, Stanton, and Abreu would cost my first three picks.
How can you keep Cutch & Stanton? Since they both require a 1st round pick isn’t it an either/or scenario?
I would be keeping McCutchen, Abreu, Kluber, EE
I can keep two players with the same cost, I just lose my next pick. For example, if I kept Stanton, Cutch, Beltre, and Abreu they would be assigned – pick 1, pick 2, pick 3, pick 4 in that order.
1. Cutch (2nd best player overall)
2. Stanton (1st rounder)
3. Abreu (1st rounder)
4. EE (1st rounder)
I don’t understand why you wouldn’t keep all 3 of Cutch, Stanton, and Abreu regardless of cost as all 3 are legit 1st rounders… I mean it’s not like you’re gonna get Trout instead if you keep your 1st round pick – they don’t get any better than these 3. Then for the 4th I’d keep EE in the 14th – that’s yet another 1st round talent at a fraction of the cost (no idea how that happened by the way).
Gray is a great value but there’s tons of available SPs who are comparable. Cueto is a solid value, but injury-prone. Yelich is an up and comer and a solid value, but he’s nothing special. Kluber is the tough one to pass on on the 9th, but there’s a chance you could get him with your 4th rounder anyway and pitching is deep – much easier to find than elite hitting.
Gotta keep those 4 elite hitters. You’ll dominate in HR/RBI and Runs will come with that as well… AVG will also be solid so you’ll just be looking for pitching and SB in the draft which is exactly where you want to be.
EE in the 13th rather
your number one two and three pick or the non keeper picks. because no one will get cutch stanton and abreu with their first second and third pick.
I’d keep: Gray (19), Encarnacion (15), Kluber (11), and would consider Stanton (1) or McCutchen (1).
The first 3 are based on the value of keeping the player in that round compared to the cost of drafting that player. Some other stick out as having value, but these appear to be gems.
The Stanton or McCutchen approach is to maximize value for your first pick. Although pick 10 or 12 (depending on your league size) will still have great talent, I would view both Stanton or McCutchen to have top 5 or top 3 talent, depending on your league settings.
Exactly how I’d approach it, although if I felt pitching was as readily available as many seem to be commenting, I’d keep both Stanton and Cutch.
Deciding between those two pitchers is tough but given how many rounds between them I would then lean towards keeping Gray.
I wouldn’t leave the top talent out, as the previous posters have, since you pick last.
McCutcheon/Stanton (Doesn’t matter)
Abreu
Kluber
Edwin
You can argue Cueto over Edwin but I’m heavy handed on offense and I think you are looking at regression in each of your later pitching options Gray/Wacha.
“McCutcheon”
Oh, you’re one of those.
You need to keep both Stanton and Cutch.. and it would matter which. Depends how you want to build your team, but Cutch is a 5 category stud… can’t leave him out, especially with Stanton’s injury issues. There is absolutely no argument for Cueto in the 8th over EE in the 14th… EE is a 1st rounder, Cueto is a good starter but those are a dime a dozen… he can get SPs easily – you won’t find a 1st round talent in the 13th anywhere else. Always go for the hitter over pitcher except in rare circumstances.
I would say Encarnacion (15), Kluber (11), and Gray (19) definitely, and then Mccutchen/Stanton (1) only if you have the 4th pick or worse in the first round. If you have a pick better than 4 in the first round I would say Abreu (3).
Since you’re at the end of the first round, I’d keep one of the two first rounders. They probably won’t be around when you pick, so there’s value there.
Same with Abreu in the 3rd; you would probably have to take him with your 2nd round pick to get him again and then you’d end up with a lesser player in the 3rd.
Kluber in the 11th nets you a solid pitcher pretty cheap and can allow you to ignore a starter run, if you so choose.
For the last pick, I’d go with Yelich, although I strongly considered Wacha, . There’s a lot of risk with Wacha, but he could provide a ton of value from round 21. The issue is that he could probably be had pretty cheaply in the draft due to injury. Yelich was good last year, and seems poised to break out. You could do a lot worse with a 13th rounder.
Encarnacion, Kluber and Harrison. Need to think on the fourth. Encarnacion is Abreu-like production but 12 rounds later; Kluber because, well, duh; Harrison ranked second among 3B last season, and even if his performance lags, his positional flexibility allows you to cover lineup spots when someone is facing Kershaw, that is tremendous value for the 23rd round.
Maybe I missed it, but do you use a util spot?
Depending in that, Abreu in the third is a huge bargain. If no util, Cutch or Stanton in the first, no way they are around at the end of the first round in a 10-team draft. Maybe Beltre, but Harrison at third is good value, and his position flexibility allows you to look for a 3B later and hedge against a drop off in performance. Plus Beltre is old, every year is a gamble with him.
Also, does your draft snake? Makes losing that first-round pick less aggravating, particularly given the value Cutch and Stanton bring to the OF.
Just looked at last year’s leader boards for OF, and you definitely need at least one of Cutch and Stanton. Not certain I would keep both and sacrifice the value of those later-round keepers, but yeah, one for sure.
So:
(1) Cutch or Stanton
(11) Kluber
(15) Encarnacion
(23) Harrison
No matter what your strategy is, I think EE is a lock given his price and his value. I think in a shallow league I would lean towards locking in as many elite guys as possible.
For me that would be McCutch; Stanton; Abreu; EE.
If you were more concerned about one “ace” then go: McCutch; Stanton; Kluber; EE (or subbing out one of mccutch/stanton for abreu).
Encarnacion is the easy choice as the #1 keeper. He’s a first rounder who only costs a 15th round pick. Considering you have the last pick of the first round, my next three keepers would be McCutchen, Stanton, Abreu. If I understand correctly, you would give up your first 3 picks in that scenario. Who. Cares. You now have 4 first rounders on your team and it cost you rounds 1,2,3,15. Go win a title
I was about to type nearly the exact same thing.
Those four may well be your keepers next year too.
This is exactly what I was gonna say. You should have a vote. You won’t even have to pay a 1st 2nd 3rd and 4th round pick to get arguably 4 first rounders. If anything fails you can easily trade 1 to make up for pitching.
Exactly. Another interesting point that is seldom brought up is that by keeping first rounders, not only are you providing yourself with elite production, you’re also depriving other GMs of elite production. The benefits of keeping first rounders is really two-fold. How the hell are other GMs supposed to catch you when they are deciding between Rendon and Ellsbury in the first round? Nice talents, but that’s not gonna combat your arsenal of first round monsters.
Correct point, but you’re missing the boat a bit on Rendon… he’s easily a 1st round keeper… he’s a late 1st/early 2nd rounder in non keeper leagues this year.
I’d do exactly the same tho Abreu that high scares me a little. I generally would keep the best players almost regardless of cost unless there is just too stupid a value to be had.
I may keep Cutch/Stanton/EE and Kluber if you’re inclined to keep a pitcher. Kluber’s value in this format should be even higher than a 5×5 because his potential lack of wins will not mean squat.
Either way there simply no way you can throw any of those hitters back. IF you had another great value keeper hitter later I’d throw Stanton back in because no one knows how the HBP is going to affect him. I think it’s foolish to put close to 100% confidence in his projections and talent because that’s a HUGE variable that could really hurt his production, if even only for the first 6-8 weeks.
I just don’t see any of the later guys being adequate to make this swap however. Id roll the dice on that.
“You now have 4 first rounders on your team and it cost you rounds 1,2,3,15.”
Bingo. Excellent analysis, far and away the correct choice.
Yeah, in my opinion this is a complete no-brainer. Why on earth would you keep the Yelich, Wacha, and Grays of the world when you can lock up first round talent with essentially no penalty? Having four first round picks is a ridiculous advantage, and since there’s no way you’d be able to re-draft Cutch or Stanton with the 11th pick, you’re not even sacrificing anything. McCutchen, Stanton, Abreu, Encarnacion and I don’t see an alternative that remotely compares.
How in the world did you get Edwin at 17?
Cutch or Giancarlo 1
Abreu 3
Kluber 11
Edwin 15
I was wondering the same thing. He was coming off an injury, but I am still surprised that he went so late in the draft, particularly because, I believe, he had 3B eligibility last season.
The league’s disdain for him makes me question whether I fully understand their scoring and rostering systems.
I picked him up off waivers before he broke out. I’ve been keeping him ever since.
If you don’t keep at least one of McCutchen or Stanton, you won’t get either back, so you should keep at least one of them. I’d argue that McCutchen is lower-risk.
Kluber is such an obvious steal at round 11 that you’d be nuts not to keep him.
Based on the rounds these players were picked in, it seems like your league undervalues SPs, which makes it more likely that you could get near-elite guys like Cueto, Gray, and Wacha back in the draft. So I’d focus on hitters. Harrison is valuable for his multi-positional eligibility and low cost, while Encarnacion is a better value as a 15th-rounder than Abreu as a 3rd-rounder.
Encarnacion and Kluber look like the easy keepers to me. Cueto would the third keeper, and fourth would be a toss up between McCuthchen and Giancarlo.
I always prefer (within limits) stocking up on bargains with my keepers rather than raw stats. So the first thing I look at is who has the greatest difference between their keeper cost and what they would cost in the draft? Encarnacion, Kluber, and Cueto would go significantly higher than the 15th, 11th and 10th rounds if back in the draft.
Pederson and Gray look like two other players that would go quite a bit higher if thrown back into the draft. I wouldn’t argue with keeping either of those two, I just subjectively am a little skeptical of both.
Giancarlo and McCutchen obviously wouldn’t go any higher, but they’re just too good and young enough to be good keepers going forward, so I’d break my bargains rule for them.
Mc Cutch, Stanton, Cueto or Kluber, Encarnacion. I would also keep Abreu if you don’t want a pitcher. Definitely your two legit first rounders though.
I play in an auction dynasty league, but the following principle still applies: you can fill out a roster with bargains, sleepers, and value picks, but if you don’t pay fair price (or more) for some elite talent, you still won’t win.
Cutch, Stanton, Edwin, Kluber, seems pretty straight forward. You cant get the 2 elite guys at pick 11 or round 2 there will be a large dropoff in what is available, Edwin over Abreu is such a great delta in pick value that he wins out, and Kluber is obvious as a cheap ace. I love Yelich as much as anyone, but I wouldn’t give up the 2 elite bats for him, I may consider him vs. Edwin, but in wOBA setup it isn’t close.
I can’t believe people are telling you to keep Beltre, Stanton, Cutch, & Abreu. I can only surmise they don’t understand the league fully. My Keeper league is set-up somewhat similarly, and for my strategy, it’s better to grab value late and keep drafting early instead of trying to find who’s still available in the middle rounds.
If it was my team, I’d keep: Encarnacion, Harrison, Gray, & Kluber in that order. (Kluber over Cueto by an eyelash)
Joe, the thing you are missing is that a lot of elite talent will not be in the draft, so getting Cutch at 11 and Stanton at 12 is likely a tremendous value over keeping decent players later.
Keeping McCutch and Stanton (1 and 2) is a huge value, two top five picks with either the 12th/13th, or the 12th and 24th if not a snake. Then Abreu in the third is another one or two rounds of value. You have to give up your first three picks, but you get three first round(ish) talents in a redraft league. The value of each pick is actually a little less in this league because the available talent will be diluted (i.e. Kershaw, Trout, etc. won’t actually be on the board).
Then I agree with most of the posts, the best remaining value is probably Kluber.
Cutch – upgrade from last pick of first round
Might be able to draft Stanton with first pick of 2nd round
Abreu – upgrade from last pick in third round
E5 – massive upgrade from 15
Kluber if you go pitcher
Highly unlikely Stanton would be available in round 2 if released.
I think EE, Kluber, and Abreu are locks. EE and Kluber without a doubt, and Id rather keep a 3rd rd Abreu over a 1st rd Cutch/Stanton. Are Cutch/Stanton viewed that much better than Abreu? Id rather Abreu and a 1st rd pick in draft, than Cutch/Stanton and a 3rd. That being said I think I still keep Cutch as the 4. Would have 3 1st round hitters and an elite pitcher before the draft.
Abreu at 33 and 12th pick in draft vs Cutch/Stanton at 12 and 33rd pick in draft. Option 1 EASY. Abreu/Tulo? Abreu/Cano? Abreu/Bautista? Abreu/Gomez.
The point that I think many are missing is the shallow nature of the league. “Value” loses value when the league is shallow. Grab the elite talent, and make “value” picks later. If you keep a Harrison, while you are getting paper “value” you are losing the opportunity at the elite talents. If everyone keeps four players, your 2nd round pick is obstensibly somewhere in the 50-60 range, not 12-23. Therefore, you keep Cutch, Stanton, Abreu and Encarnacion. Four 1st round picks for peanuts. Go get value after that. Shallow league, grab elite any chance you get.
you’re not swayed at all by how great of a year Kluber had? or did you forget that pitching is still important, you idiot.
sorry, Ben but you’re wrong… keep the 4 elite talents here… or did you forget that you can still draft pitching from the 4th round on? No need to keep Kluber. Maybe you should stick to flying kites 😉
He’s playing for this coming year, not last year. Pitchers are much more volatile and he’s got plenty of other draft picks to select them with.
to be fair, I have watched a lot of Kluber as an Indians fan… he’s for real. But I still don’t think a non-Kershaw starter is worthy of a keeper selection with those hitters available
Mccutch, EE, Kluber, and Stanton. Got your big boppers, only lose your first two which those guys are the best first two picks you can make anyway. Get kulber as a cheap ace and ee super cheap.
It does not say how long you can keep the players, but I will assume you can keep the players for several years. Guesstimating what range of players will be available when could influence decisions.
With all the valuable keepers harrison (one year wonder?) and Joc Pederson (too raw) are easily eliminations. Beltre is not being kept over Stanton or McCutchen and you have too much value in keepers to use your 1st 4 picks on keepers.
Edwin Encarnacion is an amazing value so he has to be kept.
Pitchers:
Cueto vs Kluber: Approximate same overall value but Kluber can be kept for practically 2 rounds later since you pick last in odd rounds and 1st in even.
Gray vs Wacha
When you get to the 19th and 21st round, the round difference is lessened. I would consider Gray the better pitcher by a decent amount so I would lean toward him.
Since you have great hitter and pitchers are more violate and injury risk, I would not keep no more than 2 of them. Then you have to ask yourself what is more valuable a backend #1 starter (cueto) in the 10th or a #4 (wacha) starter in the 21st? I would lean Cueto. In Cueto vs Gray, I prefer the value in Gray. Kluber backend #1 vs Gray high end #3. is about even value for me.
My potential pitcher keepers are Kluber Gray.
Hitters: I would consider Abreu in the 3rd a hair more valuable than Stanton and McCutchen in the 1st. Keeping both Stanton and McCutchen will put on of them in the 2nd round, but in your case it is basically the same pick. Christian Yelich, a #3 OF in the 13th or Abreu in the 3rd? It is tough.
E5 is the only no-brainer. Then it is a pick 3 among Abreu, Stanton, McCutchen , Yelich, Kluber, and Gray depending upon guessing what who is going to be available and personal preference. In this case I would keep 1 pitcher at most and eliminate Yelich due to me rather keeping a surer thing in Stanton and or McCutchen.
This is actually pretty easy.
EE – cheap value for 1st round productivity in a loaded lineup and plus hitter environment, plus he seems to be your guy
Klubot – your bonafide ace in the 11th round
Abreu – 1st basemen win titles, no data to back this up, but have you ever seen a Fantasy Champion without a legit 1B?
Cutch – top 3 pick at number 11, easy pickings
I chose this scenario because power is scarce in the MLB, and you just picked up two 30 homer guys and a 5 tool stud in his prime. I chose Cutch over Giancarlo because of the risk factor of him getting beaned in the face last year. He’ll probably be fine but why risk it when your alternative is safe and you can get power elsewhere?
Wish all keeper decisions were this easy…Maybe for your next post you do dollar value keepers? I feel those are more difficult and require more thought towards strategy.
Cutch, Stanton, Kluber, Edwin.
The correct answer (Cutch/Stanton/Abreu/EE) to this question is pretty simple as all 4 are 1st round talents. I feel like the main issues here are two-fold:
1. People are misunderstanding that you can keep BOTH Stanton AND McCutchen… and instead of losing 2 1sts you lose your 1st and 2nd – which doesn’t matter whatsoever because those 2 are top 5 1st round picks anyhow.
2. People are trying to out think themselves and be clever looking for the “best values”… I don’t care if you can get Christian Yelich in the 92nd round, it still isn’t a better value than getting Stanton and Cutch in the first 2 rounds. Stop looking for reasons to keep your 1st round pick… seriously, go look at the 1st round of a mock draft and tell me someone you’d rather have at the end of the 1st round or 2nd round than either of those 2. Spoiler alert: THERE ISN’T ANYONE.
There is no correct answer.
It is not about elite talents, but overall production.
If Yelich and whoever is picked in the 1st round outperform
Stanton and a 13th rounder, then it is worth it to keep Yelich over Stanton.
There is a correct answer and it is about keeping the elite talents. It’s fine to pass up someone like Beltre, but you don’t let go of Stanton, Cutch, and Abreu who are 3 of the top 10 young talents in all of baseball… it’s a recipe to lose.
*Ahem* If I may.
There is no correct answer. Or more specifically, there are three “correct” strategies that each encompass several tactical options. There are certainly wrong answers. For example, any answer including Beltre is probably wrong.
Dave arent you getting a pretty close to elite talent at pick 12 if you were to have that pick? You would rather stanton at pick 12 and whoever you draft round 11, instead of Carlos Gomez at pick 12 and Kluber round 11? Noway.
You think after everyone selects their keepers that Gomez is then going to make it all the way to pick 12?! No way. Yelich MIGHT develop into a good keeper some day… but right now he’s just a solid piece… not close to Stanton and likely never will be. By the way, the only way he could get a 1st rounder is if he forgoes BOTH Stanton AND McCutchen.. which is pure and utter stupidity. If he keeps Cutch and lets Stanton go he still has to wait until the end of the 2nd round. I don’t think you guys are thinking this through…
Not to mention the fact that Gomez will likely (correctly) be kept. Whatever falls to the end of the 2nd round will be far from elite. Maybe someone like Cespedes… yuck.
Brad, I understand you’re the author here, but I agree with Dave 100% (and respectfully disagree with you)… there is a correct answer and it’s relatively easy. Yes, it’s tough to pass on Kluber’s value, but hitting > pitching… much easier to find pitchers than great hitters. You have 4 1st round talents on your team, and giving up your first 3 rounds and the 15th round is a price anyone should be more than willing to pay… no brainer – if you want to win.
Any answer that does not include EE is also wrong. He’s too good and too cheap to not be kept.
Yes to all this except I do wonder if there isn’t an argument for keeping Kluber over EE … it’s true that EE’s draft position is a “steal” but in a keeper league draft that’s less consequential and if you’re missing out on the first three rounds you might also be missing out on an anchor for a rotation … while EE is going to collapse one of these years soon … all that said in the end I’d probably go EE
There is always PLENTY of good pitching to go around… elite hitting is extremely hard to find. I guarantee he’ll get a perfectly good starter with his 4th round pick… he’ll have such a head start with his hitting it won’t matter anyhow. Plus, think about all the pitchers you got on the waiver wire last year…it dwarfs the legit hitters you could find (unless you have an extremely shallow league)
EE stanton kluber.
And punt the 4th?
I am stunned that so many people are suggesting to keep Harrison with the keeper list presented. He is a great value, but there are so many question marks about his unbelievable season out of nowhere at age 27.
I just ignore those people… to be honest I don’t even know why Brad listed Harrison and Joc… absolutely no reasons to keep them
I think that is the point of listing them because someone will choose to keep them.
Some people look at these keepers and just look for “bargains” and think Harrison is a 7th round player I get in the 23rd round and Stanton is a 1st round player I get in the 1st round so Harrison is the better deal.
I agree some people DO think that… and it’s a complete fallacy. You don’t know how to play correctly if you think that way… not trying to sound harsh but it’s true.
I’d keep McCutchen and Stanton because even giving up the first two picks, if they stay healthy there aren’t many players who could provide their numbers.
(In addition, either one should be able to bring in a haul in a trade if you find a big hole later…. assuming you aren’t Ruben Amaro.)
I’d keep Kluber in the 11th round.
If you can keep players indefinitely following the same rules then I look short term and long term. In that case, I might be tempted to keep Yelich over E5. EE can be a beast when healthy, but he’s almost 10 years older than Yelich and has some signs of wear and tear.
With the same rationale, if you don’t want to give up a mid-draft pick and believe Pederson is the real deal, he might be worth the gamble….but I’d probably go with Yelich or EE.
cutch, stanton, EE and abreu. you are LOADED if you keep those 4. screw pitching when you’ve got 4 keepers like that
But if you keep Kluber over lets say 1 of Cutch/Stanton you have the 12th pick in the draft. Could snag a guy like Tulo, Cano, Bautista, Gomez potentially with that pick. You still have a ridiculous top 4, and you also have Kluber in round 11.
This is making the rather large, and likely incorrect assumption, that Tulo, Cano, Bautista, Gomez and their ilk are not being kept by other teams. Elite talent (read true 1st rounders) are likely not going to be available. The 12th pick is not the 12th pick…and it has a cascading effect. You can’t use normal mock draft or ADP positions to calculate who will be available at your pick.
You’re also forgetting that if you keep even 1 of Stanton/Cutch you still lose your 1st round pick.. so if you keep Cutch and let Stanton go your 1st pick is the end of the 2nd round. That’s a poor decision.
Dave, it is a snake draft. How would it be end of 2nd round? He has picks 11 and 12 in the draft. He has 1st pick in the 2nd round.
Sorry, didn’t realize it was snake… doesn’t change the point though. You won’t have any close to elite options at pick 14 or whatever… any good owner will keep his elite talents and the few left will be snapped up in the first few picks of the 1st round.. guys like Gomez, Cano, Bautista should not be available..
Yea prob right. Even guys like Donaldson I assume would be kept. Wonder what the options would look like.
lol apparently Roger is answering for me… but I also did not realize it was a snake. However, again as Roger said, that doesn’t change the argument.
Not good, ScoKo… hence you have to keep the elite talents. The possibility of the unknown isn’t better when you already have 3 of the top 10 players in the league and a 4th in the top 15.
haha! yeah my bad dude… I feel like we’re on the same page here though :p
Is this a snake draft (i.e. you have pick 11 and 12)? How many other owners do you anticipate keeping a player that forfeits a 1st round pick? There’s no way you can guarantee what will happen, but if everyone else is keeping a 1st rounder, you could theoretically not keep a 1st round guy and use picks 11 and 12 on those guys if its a snake (Cutch and Stanton). This doesn’t work if teams are going to have 1st round picks to take those guys from you (i.e. risky).
I would play it safe and keep Cutch and Stanton (worthy of 1st round picks for a couple years hopefully and top options at different OF positions). I would also keep EE and Abreu assuming you have to fill a UTIL. EE and Abreu are worth their draft position this year. EE should continue to be keepable for a couple of years. Abreu versus Kluber is tough for me, but I default to hitters over pitchers. One concern is next year Abreu costs a 1st rounder and Kluber would still only be a 9th rounder. The question is who do you trust to retain value, Abreu as a 1st or Kluber as a 9th? I’d take the shot on Abreu because power is hard to find and depending on other teams forfeiting picks you might get Kluber (or better) with your 4th rounder.
Yes, it’s a snake draft.
Ok so then I would do Cutch, Abreu, Kluber, EE and be able to pick at #13. Or maybe Stanton … I may be the only one still spooked by that HBP
Kluber and EE, for now and the future; I believe in Abreu, and Cutch over Stanton because he doesn’t have to face the Nationals’ pitching staff 19 times.
As some other commenters have pointed out, keeping Cutch/Stanton/Abreu/Encarnacion makes a lot of sense. You then have 4 first-found talents and you’re using rounds 1, 2, 3, and 15 to get them. Having those 4 players gives you an incredible core. I can see strong arguments for Kluber, though.
Also, if you’re going to keep one of McCutchen or Stanton, why would you not keep the other one? By keeping one, you bump the other one to a second round forfeiture, making them very valuable. Seems like you wouldn’t want to waste that.
A great point as well
Stanton, Cutch, and EE are easy picks. By keeping both Stanton and Cutch, you are basically getting two top 5 talents for your first two picks, which is awesome. Top 5 players do not go on trees. EE is the most obvious of keepers for you.
Then either Abreu or Kluber depending on if you feel you need to keep a pitcher or not. I can also imagine a case for Cueto being made if you rather have him.
Off Topic: Was there any kind of announcement about when y’all will be releasing your rankings and updating the player profiles with 2015 blurbs?
No announcement yet, but Eno is busily editing hundreds of player caps. No word yet on rankings, but the site I edit is concluding our first round of consensus rankings today.
http://www.rotoballer.com/ – rankings are off to the right.
If you decide to keep McCutchen, Stanton or Beltre to give up a 1st you almost have to keep 1 if not both of the others if it only costs your 2nd and 3rd round picks. So to me I would either keep McCutchen AND Stanton or keep neither, doesn’t make sense to keep only 1 because you’d be losing out on the value of keeping another 1st round talent for 2nd round cost. However, I generally like to go with value picks so EE and Abreu would be for sure keepers for me. Depending how your bench spots go, I would think about Joc Pederson for the mere fact that going forward he would only cost a 23rd round pick. That type of potential value is off the charts but again would depend how benches and other owners value their keepers.
How can you possibly justify NOT keeping the 2nd best player in Cutch?! That just makes no sense whatsoever… why would you be afraid to lose your 1st rounder when you’re getting the 2nd best 1st rounder out there?!
I’m not saying I wouldn’t keep him, rather that if you’re going to keep him you have to keep Stanton if he’s only going to cost you a 2nd round pick. I would keep McCutchen, Stanton, Abreu and EE.
My goodness, what bad responses except for a few.
He picks 11th, and 48 players will be ‘kept’. Thus any top talent he drops will not be available in the 1st round of the draft. Therefore, if you think yourself into Yelich or Pederson then your team is Yelich + guy ranked around 60. Or you could get Stanton + guy ranked around 60.
Stanton
Cutch
Abreau
Kluber or Encarnacion
The first three should be no question, you won’t be able to draft them back. I’m torn in Kluber and Encarnacion, both great players and good values. I think I’d go Kluber as you already have Abreu at 1b. Good luck winning again.
Bill, you’re absolutely right… except for the last part where you don’t keep the 1st rounder and keep Kluber instead just to have a pitcher. You can find plenty of pitching int he draft… you do not pass on EE in the 15th – that’s absurd.
I’m assuming you can continue to keep Cutch and Stanton in perpetuity for a 1st (or 1st and 2nd) round cost? In other words, looking to confirm that you don’t lose the ability to keep someone once they get the first round designation.
If so, this is easy: keep the top talent. Getting EE at a discount over the next few years is a nice bonus.
Stanton
Cutch
Abreu
Encarnacion
Exactly. So easy.
Cutch, Stanton and Abreu seem like no-brainers as it would be very hard to get better than that talent in rounds 1-3. Initially I’d think Fourth pick as Encarnacion, but with Abreu at 1B already, and me as a high prospect homer, I may be leaning Joc late.
No. There are 0 reasons for keeping Joc… if you want him that badly you could draft him later anyhow… no way someone takes him in the first 3 rounds. He doesn’t even have a clear path to PT yet (at least until Ethier is traded)
I’m not saying it’d be in the bag for me, but I can easily find reasons not to keep any of the others. I avoid keeping pitchers unless their first name is Felix and the loss of a 23rd round pick is virtually nothing anyway. so i’d be able to get exactly what i could have from any of these other picks in their relative rounds. If Kluber goes before round 10 or 11 anyway, then somebody’s gambling he’s not Esteban Loiaza after his magical season.
I can’t find a single reason not to keep the 4 I listed so if you easily can I’d love to hear why he shouldn’t keep 4 1st round values…
Cutch, Stanton, Kluber, Edwin.
Cutch is way better than ordinary first rounder. Stanton dominates R2. Edwin’s not far enough away from Abreu to give up the many-round difference. Kluber’s an elite talent who you get to keep for a late pick.
That’s a running start, for sure.
How did you end up with 3 guys who were 3rd rounders last year? How/Why was McCutchen a 3rd rounder last year? Or, why would a league let you keep players in slots you don’t have (1,1,1) or are in the negative???? rounds. Seems broken or you’re league is made of monkeys?
Brad, might help all know that elite SP are massive point gainers in this format (maybe show the whole point table?), more so than most would guess. Not that this changes what anyone would suggest (or what you should do), just to give more context…
McCutchen, Stanton, Abreu, and EE is the conservative way to go. If you want to gamble, I could see cutting Stanton (you get 1st pick in the second round) and going with Joc Pederson (eight years before he costs as much as a 10th round pick.) I wouldn’t count on it, but if everyone else kept a first rounder, you could even get Stanton back.
absolutely 0 chance Stanton comes back to pick 14
Kluber, Encarnacion, Harrison, and Pederson.
Encarnacion is the prize of this group as a 15th rounder. It’s not close, an absolute no-brainer. Beyond that, I’d keep Kluber, Cueto and either Gray or Cutch. Probably lean towards Gray…I’d want Gray and a different stud from the 1st round over just Cutch by himself, but 5 category players are awesome, so….tough choice.
Brad, it would be helpful to know what you think others will keep in the first three rounds, and with the caveat that I don’t understand your point system completely to know who has best wOBA (not looking it up) etc. I think you keep Cutch and Abreu, and then you make a decision whether it makes more sense to keep the following:
Stanton or
Encarnacion and the 13th pick in the entire draft (your second rounder).
Without more stats and assessing league keepers I can’t tell, but could see going either way. As the fourth I would keep Kluber, and it is simply a matter of balance, if balance is necessary in a points league like this. The idea of having Kluber and then drafting another stud starter in the 4th or 5th round would seem to put you way ahead of the game.
Cutch, Stanton (championships are build with some worthwhile risks)
Abreu. I believe no matter what, he has the power.
And
Kluber. 11th rounder? Yes. I like the flexibility and balance it can give you.
Beginning with an ace is worth it to me. Can concentrate on at least one good Closer to help with the ratio stats.
Are you sure, …yep
Martin
I apologize if I’m repeating something someone else has said before me, but here’s my two cents…
This is a keeper league, meaning you’re both playing to win next year and playing to win in future years. For that reason alone, I think you do the following:
– Stanton with 1st rd pick – given his age (25) and his power with elite OBP skills. He will be a perennial 1st round draft choice for years to come.
– McCutchen with 2nd rd pick – for reasons stated above, anyone would take him with their 2nd round pick. What is the likelihood (barring injury) that his performance is outside the top 24?
– Kluber with 11th rd pick – I don’t think this is an obvious pick, as I was wavering between keeping him or Joc (to lock in the 23rd round value). This move provides flexibility by allowing you to either waiting for SP and using earlier rounds to fill out your offense, or to shore up 2 of your 5 SP by selecting someone like Chris Sale, Madison Bumgarner, etc. with an earlier pick.
– Encarnacion with 15th rd pick – this is insane value!!!
What a solid group of 4 to build a team around, eh?
Cutch, Stanton and Abreu should be no-brainers. Hard to come out of the first 3 rounds in a better position than that.
The last keeper depends on your personal preferences.
– If you want to have at least ace to anchor your staff heading into the draft, then Kluber in the 9th makes more sense to me than Cueto in the 8th.
– If you want to as lumbered-up as possible, then Edwin in the 13th is your guy.
Cutch, Stanton, Abreu, EE – we all should be so fortunate
I’m keeping McCutchen, Stanton, Abreu, EE. Getting those four with pick #s 11,12,33, and 15th round is too good to pass up. The only other worth considering is Kluber.
The rules this league uses are too exploitable. Allowing someone to keep first rounders in the 2nd round seems dumb. It completely undermines the idea of draft round penalties and churning top talent back into the draft. In fact it gives teams incentive to acquire multiple first round players (not only becasue it helps you win *that* year) but just so they can get a discount in keeping 2 of them by moving one guy back a round!
And moving up only 2 rounds per year seems bad too. In my experience keeper leagues work much better when the cost escalates more rapidly the longer you keep a player.
With the current rules there is no reasonable argument to keep players other than Cutch
Stanton
Abreu
EE
what a fun post!!
i’m with those who say to keep the 4 elite bats. guys you have no legitimate chance at landing otherwise (save for trades, perhaps?). cutch, stanton, abreu, and edwin – with a shit eating grin, thank you very much 🙂 you should be able to lean on that set another few years, as it seems you’ve already done with cutch, stanton, and beltre.
guys like gray, kluber and yelich come at a tempting price, but even at absolute peak performance (probably 2014, for klubot) they don’t stand to outperform the big bats.
lastly, cueto is a trick. historically, he hasn’t been a great FIP guy (career 3.87). his 2014 FIP of 3.30 was good for his second best season in the category (3.27 in ’12), yet ranked 23rd among qualified starters. he’s just not a value at the cost of an 8th round selection.
EE is the obvious pick. He’s a keeper for several years to come. I’d also select McCutchen as my first rounder. You’ve improved your draft slot by 8 or 9 in the first round and picks have exponential value in the first. That leaves 2 slots for 3 players – Stanton, Abreu and Kluber.
Kluber is the only one with potential long term value, so that’s enticing. And with a roster this loaded you can probably sacrifice some short term value for long term value.
Stanton would be fantastic value as a second round pick, but you do have the first pick of the round. Depending on how many teams you suspect are keeping first rounders it might make sense to keep Abreu Kluber and your second round pick.
However, if you do have an expansion team, I’d lean against this option. Four more talents would be off the board and it’s now pick 13 instead of pick 12. It would be enough for me to definitely keep Stanton. Then I’d balance long term (Kluber) versus winning now (Abreu) to come up with my final 4.
Ultimately, I generally select winning now over protecting for the future. Besides, EE is plenty of long term value for me plus Stanton and McCutchen *could* be first round talents for a few more years. Chicks dig the long ball, grab all the elite hitters.
BTW, any chance you can trade a player for picks?
Regarding your remark that you always sit hitters when they face Kershaw. I sat Goldschmidt ONE time last year and that was against Kershaw. His stat line was 2 homers, 6 RBI’s and 5 runs scored. I was super duper pissed at myself and needless to say, those two homers would have been enough to win my league (roto) instead of falling 1 homer short and half a point behind at the end of the season.
Elite hitting is so much harder to find than elite pitching. EE is a no brainer at that price. Then I would take Cutch and Stanton. You’re probably not getting them back. If you can play Abreu and EE at the same time, I would keep Abreu too. Then grab SP with some of your first picks. If not, I would keep Kluber.
I’m going Cutch (1) and Stanton (2) for the numerous reasons stated above; Their superstars, probably both 5 top picks, your first rounder and a player like gray will not be more valuable than Cutch and an 18th rounder.
I’m keeping Kluber (11), because I would rather have Kluber and a 3rd rounder, than Jose and a 11th rounder. In addition to that I’m keeping EE, and that negates some of Abreu’s value.
In summary Cutch, Stanton, Kluber, EE
This is a fun post, Brad. But I’m with one of the other commenters who wants some examples of the best players that are not being protected.
The context here is critical in determining the optimal strategy, especially since you are at the wheel with your picks. NOT keeping both Stanton and McCutchen merits greater consideration than what I’m seeing here in most of the posts since your 2nd round pick is pick 2.1, not pick 2.12.
A few quick thoughts:
1. As this is a keeper league with fairly low inflation, I think the long term benefits of keeping both E5 and Kluber make them your top 2 keepers.
2. Because your league separates LF-CF-RF, I think Stanton might be my 3rd keeper as RF actually looks thinner than CF. When I sorted based on FG wOBA rankings, I liked the CF options more than the RF options. Carlos Gomez was the 6th best CF by wOBA, while Seth Smith was the 6th best RF by wOBA, for reference.
3. My last keeper is probably Jose Abreu. I go this way because as a round 3 keeper this only costs you pick 3.12, while McCutchen costs you pick 2.1. I would prefer to have pick 13 overall plus Abreu than McCutchen plus pick 36 overall. Furthermore, Abreu had a higher wOBA than Cutch did last year anyways.
For me, a big part of this strategy is keeping players in odd-numbered rounds. Going with Stanton (1), Abreu (3), Kluber (11) and Encarnacion (15) maximizes the value you get from using each of these keeper positions.
Further to my last post, I also expect there will be several true 1st and 2nd rounders that go unprotected.
Why? Because if my team had a top 5 overall pick, I am disincentivized (I think that’s a word) to spend that round on a keeper (unless it’s Trout or possibly Kershaw; we know those teams don’t have Cutch or Giancarlo). I highly doubt anyone keeps Tulo or Cano or Miggy, for instance, and I fully expect those players would cost a 1st rounder.
And if I’m right about this, it means I am comfortable dropping McCutchen as I will still land a stud at pick 2.1.
The only people picking in the first round are the ones not keeping any of their last year’s top picks. That is to say: you get a pick in the first round of this year’s draft if you make available the guys you selected in round 1, 2 and 3 last year, is that correct? So imagine everyone keeps at least one player which they selected in the first three rounds last year and you don’t… That means you will be the only one picking in the first round and you pick McCutchen. Then imagine furthermore that all the other guys in the league actually have 2 keepers from among their top 3-draftees from last year. Now you are the only one picking in round 2, so you pick Stanton. These are big assumptions, but this could work out.
It would be easy for another owner to let go of their top 3 draftees if they were Chris Davis, Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. In that case you get the picks, but you don’t have to make the equivalent talent available. Would be very unlucky to compete against such an owner.
So, you dont keep Stanton, nor McCutchen and you have a chance to be able to draft them, especially because in the second round you are the first to pick. After that you need to keep players who are this year at least two rounds better than last year and among those you get the ones with the highest overall value.
So I’d go with Abreu and Encarnacion for sure, Kluber also. Without analyzing my rankings I do not know who is the 4th person, I’d keep. Considering that one could play matchups, any of the guys having a very favorable platoon split that makes things worthwhile?
Keeping these guys, I am banking on being one of the few owners to actually draft in round 1 and 2. Or if there are others, there must almost certainly be first round talent in the draft. But any owner that makes the “mistake’ of keeping any of last years top-30 talents will not have a chance to draft McCutchen or Stanton. If they all make this mistake (say, they keep Trout, Cabrera, Puig, Kershaw, Gomez, Goldschmidt, Posey, Tulowitzki, Bautista, Rendon).
Of course all of this is mute if you add an owner. A new owner will immediately pick up your Stanton and McCutchen and say thank you. Better not add that owner.
Lots of commenters do not seem to consider the two-round penalty. Or maybe I do not understand it correctly. To be sure then: if I keep anyone on my team who was either a 1st, 2nd or 3rd round draft pick last year, I forfeit my 1st round pick this year, correct?
In other words, in order to have a pick in the first round this year, I cannot keep my top 3 draftees of last year, not any of them. Right?
If this is correct, only people pick in the first round, if they make 3 of last year’s top 30 talents available. They may or may not be in this year’s top 30, but they cannot keep any of them, because that will cost them their first round pick.
You are very lucky, because you have other great value keeper options. So you can afford to release McCutchen, Stanton and Beltre. And have your first round pick. And keep 4 stars. Question is: who else can take the risk? Imagine there is one other owner in a similar situation. And you get Gomez and Tulowitzki also in the pool. Now you pick with two guys in the first round. The other guy is first and takes McCutchen or Stanton. You take the other one with your first round pick, so you get one of them back… Then you have first choice in the second round and you go with Gomez. That’s 2 solid picks plus your 4 keepers.
You can only loose this game if someone had 3 picks that project really poorly this year. Then you still get one of McCutchen or Stanton, but your second round choice will be between Beltre and the best among whoever wasn’t kept by the other owner. Still a decent risk.
Since you pick last in the first round and you have what I abstractly think must be 2 of the top 5 overall players I think you’ve got to keep Stanton and McCutchen, that burns through your first two rounds. Then you’ve got 2 young potentially elite pitchers in the lower rounds, Gray and Kluber. So I think you keep those 4, then work on building a real team, focusing on infielders in rounds 3-10 in the draft. You’re burning your first two rounds, but you’re doing it with two guys who you could justify being picks 1 and 2 if you put them back, and even if one of them went 7th or something, neither would be around by pick 11. You don’t need an ace pitcher who you might miss out on by losing your first two picks because you’ve got last year’s Cy Young winner in the 11th round and another guy with similar upside in the 13th.
It would be helpful to know how many total players in the league will count as first-rounders going into the draft. Must be 40+ if the league has been going for several years. Knowing which would tremendously help with a decision. Based on available information I keep McC, Stanton, abreu and E5. There’s an argument for Kluber over E5… but I wouldn’t.
Encarnarcion and Kluber are absolute no brainers given the round “price” paid for them. Personally I would go with McCutcheon and Abreu for the other two spots. While it is important to always get the best talent possible and you obviously won’t be able to recoup Stanton with this scenario you should still be able to score a prime talent with your 2nd rounder presuming this is a snake style draft
I do think a part of the motivation of this post (not a huge part) was “hey look at all my awesome keeper options!”
The legit fantasy question/discussion PLUS humblebrag combo!
Snake draft or no? If yes i would go with Cutch (only because you have last pick r1), Kliber, E5, and Gray.
Non-snake (last pick every round) I would go with Cutch, Stanton, Kluber, E5.
McCutchen, Kluber, EE and Pederson. Hope Abreu, Stanton or Beltre falls to you at the end of the round. Locks you into good value now, let’s you take the best pick available to you later, and stores Pederson for long term. He may hit like a rookie this year. But he could also go 15/30 or 20/20 and score 110 runs leading off for a good Dodgers team, and an increase arc over the next 2-4 years that’s higher ceiling than anyone else on that roster than Stanton, at a fraction of the cost.