Ottoneu Keeper Omnibus

We’re going to do two things today. First, I am gathering all articles about Ottoneu keepers into one semi-sorted place. This should give you plenty of resources to prepare for Cut Day on January 31. We’ll also delve into more keeper related decisions in the next two weeks.

Please use the comments for any ottoneu keeper or roster construction questions. I would like to keep things focused on ottoneu and keepers, but we can delve into other subjects too.

One last reminder: it usually behooves you to hang onto all of your players until sometime near the keeper deadline. I may want to dump my $7 Jason Grilli today, but what if a shark eats Craig Kimbrel’s foot tomorrow?

Past Results

Deadline day fallout: 2012 edition.

Deadline day fallout: 2013 edition.

Deadline day fallout: 2014 edition.

Using the Roster Organizer

Part One

Part Two

FAQ

Chad answers a few common questions related to the keeper deadline and draft plans.

Chad offers a five step guide for making your keeper decisions.

Chad’s detailed, 2014 update to his keeper deadline guide.

Chad and I usually discuss the FG Points format, but that’s just one of four possibilities. In this post, Chad compares player value in the other three formats.

Roster Examples

Brandon crowdsourced his latest rebuilding plans. This is a good one for owners with a lot of minor league components.

Brandon’s original rebuild in part one and part two.

Prospect Keepers

There are different prospect classes in ottoneu (or any league). Your decision to keep a prospect depends on your team and the type of prospect.

Behavioral Strategy

Watch out for the endowment effect.





You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

26 Comments
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dlb223
9 years ago

How much cap space is too little to have available for the auction/season? Based on projections, I have one of the top teams in my league again, but my current roster construction leaves me with only about $50 of flexibility for the rest of the season and I’m worried about that.

brian_msbc
9 years ago
Reply to  dlb223

I don’t think space matters, what matters is value. Pretty much every decision I make in trades or cuts comes down to my projected dollar value minus actual salary. If I have a $20 player signed for $23, that’s a negative player, trade him or cut him. Because your valuation of him is $20, you would stop bidding at $20. Trade him for even a $10 player that has a $8 salary. If every player on your roster has positive value, then it’s ok that you only have $50 available, but I find that hard to believe.

Trey Baughn
9 years ago
Reply to  brian_msbc

It’s unrealistic to think that a) every player on your team can or needs to have “surplus” value and b) you can both read the market and evaluate a player so precisely that you know that you should keep a player at $20 and cut at $22 or $23. Prices are fluid because markets are ever-changing (and often irrational).

brian_msbc
9 years ago
Reply to  brian_msbc

Ok, I hear Ya… But assuming position scarcity is built into your projected auction prices, I don’t understand why you would bid 150% of what you think he is worth. Why bother evaluating players and generating auction dollars if you are going to ignore them? This is the complete opposite of strategy.

brian_msbc
9 years ago
Reply to  brian_msbc

Obviously nobody has perfect projections. But I think if you start with a composite of trusted sources, and then adjust based on your own judgement, generate auction prices based on those projections and position scarcity, then iI think I have the green light to start trading and cutting based on these auction prices. I have a few guys on my roster that are a dollar overpriced, but not much more than that. I think I have 20 guys that are all extremely well priced and will walk into my auction with $275 to spend.

cs3member
9 years ago
Reply to  brian_msbc

“Pretty much every decision I make in trades or cuts comes down to my projected dollar value minus actual salary. If I have a $20 player signed for $23, that’s a negative player, trade him or cut him.”
=========================================
This

….is completely false.
The reason that surplus value is important in fantasy is because it allows you to pay over market rate for some players. if you only roster players who cost below market value, then 1) your team is very likely going to suck, and 2) you probably wont even be able to fill out a roster.
Think about it – if you have an entire 25 player roster full of $10 players, who only cost $2 each, you have built a team with a ton of surplus value. Probably the most in the league. But your team stinks and you ar not going to in anything.

The Stranger
9 years ago
Reply to  dlb223

I’d be interested to see Brad’s take, but IMO it depends on your roster. If you’re going in with 2-3 significant holes to fill in the auction, $50 probably isn’t enough. If you have players you like (at good prices) at every position and you just need roster filler and maybe 1-2 upgrades if the price is right, $50 is fine.

I disagree that it all comes down to value, though. Or rather, I think you need to look at a player’s value to your team, not just his value based on total stats. It’s great to have a $6 player you project for $10 of value, but if he’s your 7th outfielder and you’re probably only starting him 30 games or so, you’re really only getting $2 of use out of him. There’s value in keeping him around in case somebody gets hurt, but it’s also worth thinking about what else you could do with that money and that roster spot.

I wouldn’t worry too much about having money going into the season – in most leagues, anybody worth more than $1-2 is already rostered at the start of the year. So you only need more than a few bucks if you want to bid on newly-minted closers and April breakouts. By midseason, you’ll probably have some dead weight on your roster if you need to clear cap space.