Elite, Non-Closers in the 22nd Round

The FanGraphs slow mock is complete – huzzah! While I did not participate, I did occasionally peek in to observe. The 22nd round struck me as curious. Four non-closing relievers were drafted in the round including three names that could have been picked ahead of David Robertson (late seventh round) if they had a closers gig. Let’s take at the value to be had late in the draft.

The elephant in the room is Carlos Martinez, who is listed as a reliever but will probably start. Mike Podhorzer recently covered Martinez, noting a drastic platoon problem. Martinez has a fantastic repertoire per our early attempts to grade such things, but he needs to solve left-handed hitters. Until then, he profiles as a mediocre, high-ceiling starter or a ROOGY.

The first true reliever off the board in the round was Ken Giles. The 24-year-old fireballer dominated opponents last season with 12.61 K/9, 2.17 BB/9, 15.7% SwStr%, and a 1.18 ERA. My sole concern is with his walk rate, which was less than half his minor league rate. While it’s possible he solved his command issues, it seems more likely he’ll decline.

Even if we assume a decline, Giles is a great pick late in the draft. His downside resembles Trevor Rosenthal’s 2014 season (sans saves). While Cardinals fans suffered some indigestion from blown saves, fantasy owners were well rewarded. The Phillies are in rebuild mode, so Giles should take over as closer at some point in 2015 – just as soon as somebody needs a closer enough to acquire Jonathan Papelbon. Joaquin Benoit was in a similar situation last season and saved 11 games despite an injury. I have Giles penciled in for 15 saves.

The next reliever off the board was Yankees lefty Andrew Miller. Like Giles, his 2014 walk rate was half that of his career. Unlike Giles, Miller has been walking batters at a high rate for nearly a decade. He was used situationally last season (73 appearances, 62 innings), but it wasn’t necessary. Lefties had a dismal 0.92 xFIP compared to a 2.05 xFIP for righties. His numbers against opposite-handed foes were more than tolerable.

Interestingly, we all assume Dellin Betances (drafted in the eighth round) is the closer in New York. However, Miller has the pedigree and the pricey contract, so I wouldn’t rule him out entirely. If I was conducting a real draft today, the outside chance Miller closes for the Yankees would have me targeting him much earlier.

We can go back and forth all day arguing which pitcher is better suited for the ninth inning. Betances ability to pitch multiple innings seems like a fit for setup work. Miller’s ridiculous numbers against left-handers should be used whenever a tough lefty is up in a big spot. Relievers prefer to have defined roles so they can be mentally prepared, but this pairing screams for situational usage.

Last, but certainly not least, is Wade Davis. The best non-closing reliever in the league is marooned behind dominant closer Greg Holland. Davis’ 2014 included zero home runs allowed along with 13.63 K/9, 2.88 BB/9, 14.1% SwStr%, and a 1.00 ERA. Davis uses a ridiculous cutter (18.39% whiff rate) to stifle the competition. Unlike Mariano Rivera or Kenley Jansen, Davis also leans on a 96 mph heater (his primary pitch, 15.89% whiff rate) and a dirty hook (16.30% whiff rate). It’s always good to see a guy wield multiple weapons.

Since Davis is buried behind Holland, his draft day cost should be affordable. It will take an injury or trade to open the door for saves. I suspect Davis will be a better target in snake drafts, where the opportunity cost of passing on other positional needs will push him down the board. In auction leagues, I expect teams to have $7 bids prepared for Davis. He’ll be more expensive than some decent closers.

For those who are curious, the other players selected in the 22nd round of the slow mock include Torii Hunter, Tanner Roark, Shane Greene, Matt Cain, Brock Holt, Jesse Hahn, Kennys Vargas, and Brett Anderson. I like all of these picks late in the draft, with the exceptions of Cain and Holt.