Fantasy Keeper Decisions: Part Two

I originally planned to write about something different today, but 125 comments have compelled me to revisit yesterday’s topic. I intentionally left out a lot of details, league history, and my own thoughts so you could work on attacking the problem with as little framing as possible.

If you’re disinclined to follow the link, I wrote about a tough keeper decision. It’s a linear weights, points league with shallow rosters and a snake draft. I may keep four players at previous draft price minus two rounds. So if I drafted Christian Yelich in round 15, I can keep him in round 13. I lose only that pick. If I keep multiple players from the same round, I lose that round plus the next round. This mostly happens with first round picks. Here are my choices.

Now that everyone has had a chance to offer their first impressions, I’ll reveal what I consider to be the three “correct” strategies. There are different tactical choices that can be made with each strategy, so I consider there to be something like 10 or 15 “correct” combinations.

First, a little league history. Many of you asked how frequently my rivals keep players with a first round cost. It happens often, but there are usually at least three or four owners who have a first round pick. Since I’m scheduled to pick last, I would have no shot at re-drafting McCutchen. Stanton might be available, but it’s unlikely. Abreu probably would be available, but there’s definitely no guarantee.

There is another wrinkle to keep in mind. We played with 11 owners last season. There is a chance we’ll expand to 12 owners. When we add new people, we allow them to “draft” four keepers from among all cut players. Anybody I cut is very likely to be selected by a new owner.

As for my three strategic options, I can target elite talent, focus on value, or attempt to combine the two. Many commenters said targeting elite talent is the only way to go. In this case, I need to pick four from among McCutchen, Stanton, Abreu, Kluber, Encarnacion, and Cueto.

I’m presently scheduled to pick 11th and 12th in the draft, which should actually come out to the 5th and 6th picks. With those picks, I can try to game the draft. McCutchen is a top five player in our format, so I’d definitely keep him. Stanton’s right around the 12th best player, so I might be inclined to gamble on him swinging back to me with my second pick. The odds aren’t good because most of the top 12 players will be kept. Abreu is also somewhere around number 12, but I anticipate him being available. So, I could keep McCutchen, Kluber, Encarnacion, and Cueto with reasonable assurance that I could re-draft one of Abreu or Stanton – assuming we don’t add another owner. Or I could play it conservatively and select the four hitters.

The value approach is always tempting. I would have to overcome the emotional pain of losing McCutchen and probably one of my other elite talents. Thank you endowment effect for making this difficult. In this case, I need four of Kluber, Cueto, Yelich, Encarnacion, Gray, Harrison, Pederson, and Wacha. It seems some players straddle the two strategies.

I noticed a recurring theme in the comments yesterday. Several people said that the value approach won’t work. A shallow league is all about hoarding elite talent. To that, I say HA!

Last season, I kept Encarnacion, Allen Craig, Gray, and Wacha, which freed up my early picks. If I recall, I believe I picked second, fifth, 11th, and 22nd. I used those picks on Beltre, Stanton, David Price, and Freddie Freeman. I was offered McCutchen for Price straight up* about a week into the season. As such, most of my best talent can be traced back to freeing up my early picks. And for the icing on the cake, I won the league by a wide margin while setting a league record for total points.

*I didn’t specifically mention this, but a low 1400 IP cap and the points format boosts the value of elite starting pitchers (only the top 10 or so). It looks wonky, but Price for McCutchen was a reasonable swap.

Although the result was good, you might not want to try this one at home. To say “I got lucky” is an enormous understatement. Every gamble paid off. I took Abreu in the fifth round even though I had no place to play him. Cueto and Kluber were top five pitchers who just magically splashed into my lap midseason. My team was mostly healthy too. I mention this not to brag but to provide undeniable proof that the value approach is viable. You always need some luck to win a league.

Getting back to the value strategy, some of the decisions depend on how much patience you have for growth. I used this strategy last season because my alternatives were lousy. I was shoved down this path. I’m not inclined to wait two or three years for Pederson to perform above this league’s high replacement level. I might be kicking myself three years from now, but I’ve always been a win-now advocate. As such, I’m liable to take Kluber, Yelich, Encarnacion, and any fourth.

Mixing the strategies is pretty simple too, even though we’re left with a lot of combinations to consider. An obvious combination would have me selecting McCutchen plus my three locked in value picks. If it goes according to plan, I could wind up with five keepers if Stanton or Abreu land back in my hand. As long as the value picks don’t break, they could open up a repeat engagement with the strategy next offseason.

Or I could go with something like McCutchen, Stanton, Encarnacion, and Pederson. In this combination, I’ve sunk three picks into winning and one into long term value. The choice between Abreu and Encarnacion is an easy one. Abreu is better, but only by a few picks. Meanwhile, the price gap between the two players is 12 rounds.

Parting Thoughts

This post was not intended to make the “correct” choice clear. There are actually many perfectly rational approaches to this particular puzzle. I’ve described those that are most appealing to me, but there are other reasonable angles to pursue. Only one thing is clear – I’ll be keeping Encarnacion.

UPDATE: There is no pre-draft trading period