One of the things I’ve repeatedly mentioned this draft season is the flat nature of starting pitcher values. For most league types, I keep arriving at the same general strategy. Since most pitchers project to provide comparable value, I need a plan to escape the herd.
Last night, I participated in a FSWA* sponsored league with Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski and others from the industry. It’s 14-team H2H with standard deep rosters including two catchers, five outfielders, and just four bench spots. With a $260 budget, the depth offers a modest challenge. We also have a transaction limit of 50 for the season or three per week. As the Daily Grind guy, that’s a blow to my standard approach.
In late February, Lord Appelman unveiled the FanGraphs auction calculator which is loosely based upon a similar calculator named Last Player Picked. I penned a guide to using said calculator which has proven popular. As we delve deeper into draft season, I find that I’m using the calculator in ways that probably weren’t intended. That’s what we’re here to discuss today.
It’s bold prediction season here at RotoGraphs. By extension, it’s also sleeper and bust season. Most of my bold predictions were overwhelmingly positive, so it’s time to highlight a few hitters I avoid. I’ll follow up with pitchers at some point this week.
To be clear, I’m not necessarily saying you should avoid these guys. I’m just informing you that I avoid them.
The Daily Grind will become something new this year. Fans of the column can rest assured; it will be a familiar sort of new. The motivation behind the changes is to improve the overall product. My personal goal is to win the FSWA award for best fantasy baseball column. Today’s post will introduce some of my plans and open the comments to reader ideas.
On Monday, I discussed the results of my 12 team home league. Rather than spend big money on my rotation, I diversified to acquire 11 starting pitchers. By the time spring training is over, I expect to be comfortable with a six pitcher core, which will free me to search for this year’s Michael Brantleys and Corey Dickersons.
Yesterday afternoon, I joined forces with Razzball’s Paul Singman in the Yahoo Friends and Family League. It’s a 15 team snake draft with standard deep rosters and 5×5 categories. The bench is shallow – only three players, and we also have a low 1400 inning cap. I also drafted for Mr. Singman last year, and we narrowly missed first place. Scott Pianowski outstreamed us in the last week.
It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.
On the one hand, the Angels outfield is almost guaranteed to be among the best in the league. However, depth is an issue now that Josh Hamilton’s future is in question. If Mike Trout lands on the disabled list – and it will eventually happen – the entire club could go from the division favorite to fighting for a Wild Card berth.
With David Wiers rambling about spirit animals on a daily basis, I’d be remiss if I didn’t point out the animal theme of this outfield. Trout’s the easy one, but then there is Hamilton and Cowgill. Calhoun is a ‘D’ away from participating. Anywho, let’s dig in.
My colleague Zach Sander kicked off bold prediction season today, which tells me it’s time to get on my high horse. Last year, I drew some fire for a lack of boldness (I disagreed then and in retrospect). Nevertheless, I will attempt to be bolder AND more accurate this season.
Yesterday was my first normal draft of the season. It is a 12-team auction keeper league with standard deep rosters. It’s 5×5 roto, and we use OPS rather than average. We have a $310 budget. You can keep an unlimited number of players at the cost of previous draft price plus $7. Undrafted players cost $8 to keep.
After reviewing the keeper rosters, I adjusted my goal for the season from winning to acquiring as much keeper value as possible while contending. I have a few streaming tricks that should keep me within striking distance even as I optimize for next season. The best keepers are usually found in-season, but I sought to draft as many as possible.
It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.
The Pirates have clearly learned lessons from the Rays and A’s. Those two scrappy clubs frequently contend by virtue of depth and unexpected breakouts. As a franchise, you make your own luck finding cheap talent. From the outside, it looks like they roster as many average major leaguers as possible and then hope for the best. Perhaps it looks the same from the inside.
In any case, the Pirates have enviable infield depth.
