The Sundry Ways I Use The Auction Calculator

In late February, Lord Appelman unveiled the FanGraphs auction calculator which is loosely based upon a similar calculator named Last Player Picked. I penned a guide to using said calculator which has proven popular. As we delve deeper into draft season, I find that I’m using the calculator in ways that probably weren’t intended. That’s what we’re here to discuss today.

To be clear, a calculator of this sort is not a precise tool. It’s there to offer guidance, not immutable values. If you want to be very confident in your dollar figures, you need to take Mike Podhorzer’s approach. Build out custom projections, use a methodology you like (or create one!), and then rely upon the output. FanGraphs’ calculator uses publicly available projections, and you’re certain to disagree with some of the values.

If you play in more than 10 leagues, or even if you just happen to have a day job, such a detailed approach might be untenable. As long as you’re willing to be flexibile, the auction calculator offers a nice alternative that takes only a minute to whip together.

Non-Standard Auctions

For very standard leagues, the calculator isn’t remarkably different from default site values. You might get a sense of how far Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw really are from their mortal counterparts. It’s certainly nice to use Steamer, Fans, and our Depth Charts as opposed to the bunk projections put forth by Yahoo, CBS, and the like. But we’re talking about marginal benefits. You’ll still need to do a lot of mental adjustment on draft day.

As we drift away from standard leagues, the calculator can reveal more information. Perhaps your league adds OPS and K/BB to the standard 5×5. Or maybe you have a 15-team league with a weird assortment of positions. In these scenarios, you can use the calculator to discover replacement level and find the relationship between starters, relievers, and position players.

Actually accomplishing this is a matter of tinkering with the numbers. The calculator makes some behind the scenes assumptions. In general, it’s best to input the positions you intend to use rather than your league rules. For example, let’s say yours is a nine generic pitcher league with five bench spots. You know most owners will use eight starters and three relievers. In that case, enter eight SP, three RP, and three BN rather than the default rules. Your values will sync correctly.

When I join a league, I want to know three things. What will Trout and Kershaw cost? Which players will be rostered last at each position? How much will the last players I want to roster cost? Often, that last question is a negative value – I’m completely comfortable with Brad Miller, but he goes undrafted in 12-team mixed formats. In ultra-deep leagues, it’s good to know when you might need to save $6 for Kendall Graveman.

For most sets of categories or points, player values decline predictably. Trout is usually about 25 to 35 percent more expensive than the rest of the round one guys. They’re about 10 percent more expensive than the next tier and so on. Kershaw usually runs 40 percent more than the second pitcher. Values really flatten out after the tenth pitcher (Johnny Cueto or Zack Greinke).

Once I know the cost of top talent and the replacement level, I no longer need specific values for each player. I only need to know where each player fits on the curve. If Kershaw is $45, then Felix Hernandez is $33 and Alex Wood is $11. Similar intuitions can be made for position players and relievers. Beware: for strange combinations of categories, those relationships can change. The calculator is also good for identifying when that happens.

We’re starting to drift into the direction of auction strategy and tactics – a topic for another day. Generally, there are two ways to approach an auction. Those like Podhorzer stick to their values. Those like me use values as a loose guide. Fantasy owners can be predictably irrational, so it’s sometimes necessary to adjust an approach mid-draft. That’s why I like the less robust approach.

Snake Drafts

The auction calculator can help with snake drafts in two ways. The simplest is by identifying tiers. Certain positions like outfield and starting pitcher have a couple top tiers and then no big gaps after a certain point. Once you get down to Alex Gordon, outfielders decline by about three percent per pick. Basically, there’s no obvious place for a tier.

Other positions, like second base, are lumpy top to bottom. It’s helpful to know where Steamer and the like identify a tier as opposed to the arbitrary groupings of your favorite fantasy analyst.

Owners in unusual snake leagues can also benefit from a quick run through the calculator. Unusual combinations of points, categories, or innings restrictions can affect where position players, starters, and relievers should be drafted with respect to one another.

Think about the points league that overvalues strikeouts. Kershaw becomes the consensus top pick, and you’ll probably see Hernandez, Max Scherzer, and Chris Sale creep into the first round. Elite relievers like Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel will also go earlier than normal. The calculator can give you an idea of how much earlier these players should be selected.