
What do we know about value in fantasy baseball? We know a player’s value can rise swiftly based on recent production, or drop drastically due to injury or underperformance. We also know that a player’s fantasy value can be quite subjective. It is in the eye of the beholder and is often bolstered by bias. A lifelong Yankee fan who plays fantasy baseball may overvalue Trent Grisham because he leads off for the Yankees and hits tanks. An embittered Padres fan who overpaid for Grisham in 2022 and 2023 drafts when Grisham hit below the Mendoza Line those two seasons won’t see him in the same light. A player’s true value lies on a spectrum between those extremes. The other, and even more important element, is how a player can specifically help a roto team. Assuming these two managers were friends in the same league, and the Padres fan had a big lead on second place in the BA category, but had standings points to gain in HR, and was offering a fair return, the Padres fan might be able to put his bias aside for the good of his roto squad. If he had a massive lead in HR, but low in BA, the two sides would be even further apart; there wouldn’t be a trade conversation in the first place.
So, what about player values in keeper or dynasty formats or Ottoneu? Keeper leagues are an entirely different animal than redraft because there are so many more layers to the onion. Values are even more subjective and skewed because of the longer-term approach; it’s not just about what a player projects for “ROS”. Every season, some teams are rebuilding while others are contending, so specific player archetypes (ie, injured, declining, blossoming prospect) don’t have the same baseline value across all leagues. Moreover, keeper league managers are what the kids call “extra”, in a good way, of course. Though league titles are won every season, keepers are more of a journey than a destination. It requires attention and commitment throughout the entire calendar year. It’s even more important for keeper league managers to filter out personal bias, since the manager-fantasy player relationships are deeper. There’s a lot more attachment and connection to players, especially those that have been on one’s squad for a long time. Nevertheless, keeper league players are usually very serious, well-informed, and dialed in. The management of one’s portfolio of assets and the potential long-term consequences, for good or for bad, makes it generally more difficult to make deals. But when Manager A is in a clear rebuild mode, and Manager B is going for the title now, deals can align organically.
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