The Trade Desk: Getting Ketel

Pulling off trades in our fantasy baseball leagues can be difficult. We usually know our league-mates well, and they often know our true tendencies and intentions, but that shouldn’t stop us from engaging. We should be active with trade conversations to improve our rosters in our quest for league titles. This weekly column will recommend hitters and pitchers to try selling high or buying low, and I’ll try to present realistic opportunities.

This week, let’s dig into a specific underperformer and assess what they types of deals we can make.

Ketel Marte

Marte is off to a subpar start, meanwhile, all Diamondbacks hitters have been overshadowed by April’s NL Player of the Month, Ildemaro Vargas. Marte has 17 R, 5 HR, 11 RBI, no stolen bases, and a .214 batting average through his first 32 games, which equates to a Fantasy Player Rater value of $0.40 in 12-team, 5×5 rotisserie. Actually, “subpar” is overselling it. Marte is currently being outproduced by at least 30 hitters eligible at second base. This might not sit well for the person in your league who spent a top 50 overall pick on Marte. Check out some of the names out-earning him:

Player Rater values this early in the season can be misleading due to the small sample. This time last season, Tommy Edman already had eight homers (he hit five the rest of the season), Kristian Campbell was a top five second baseman and Adam Frazier was among the position’s stat leaders. This season, Nasim Nuñez’s value is comprised mostly of stolen bases and Nick Gonzales’ is heavily weighted by a high batting average and his recent hot streak. Many of these hitters are platoon bats who Marte should soon surpass.

So, now is a good time to measure the frustration level of the person in your league rostering Marte, either directly or covertly, to assess whether an advantageous deal is possible.

Marte isn’t the most durable of players. He spends some time on the IL almost every season, and has only exceeded 600 plate appearances twice since becoming a full-timer with the Diamondbacks in 2017. Moreover, he’s no spring chicken and will turn 33 not long after his team is eliminated from the playoffs, assuming he’s still with them.

But the positives far outweigh the negatives.

Marte has been an elite per-at-bat producer, averaging the 10th most standard fantasy points-per-game over the last two seasons. Since 2024, Marte has averaged 32 home runs per season (570 PA average per season), with strong underlying metrics — a 92.5 mph average exit velocity, 12.8% barrel rate, and  50.3% hard-hit rate. So far this season, Marte’s EV (92.6) and HH (49%) are on par with his two previous seasons, yet the barrel rate is down slightly (9.2 percent). His bat speed hasn’t declined either, in the 74-75 mph range, exactly the speed of the last two seasons. Marte’s flyball rate is hovering at a career low of 27%, and his 7.4-degree average launch angle is below his usual 10-12 degree range. These aren’t trends to be overly concerned with, considering we’re only 22% into the season, he is still hitting the ball hard, and remains “on pace” for 25+ home runs.

What is pulling Marte’s fantasy earnings down so far has been a low batting average. Heading into the 2026 season, Marte was a career .281 hitter. He’s currently batting .214 with an expected batting average of .300. Last season, he batted .283 with a .285 xBA, and in 2024, .292 (BA) and .289 (xBA). We know that expected batting average isn’t predictive of future success, but it does help tell the story of what has happened in the first month’s sample of 136 plate appearances. Has Marte been unlucky at the plate? It sure does appear that way. He currently sports a career-low .237 BABIP that has hovered in the .290-.300 range over the last three seasons. Could Marte have a rare negative outlier BA season like in 2022 when he hit .240? It’s possible. Is it likelier that Marte ends up closer to his career .280 mark than at .240? I believe so. Will Marte finish well above his current .214 average? I’d bet on that 10 times out of 10. Batting average is one of the toughest roto categories to intentionally make up ground in. One of the best ways to do so is to target those high-contact, batting average boons. So let’s see if we can lock in some of that likely BA category gain for a reasonable return. Three other category (R, HR, RBI) should come along for the ride, sans stolen bases. Marte has not attempted one yet this season and doesn’t typically help us in that category.

Making an Offer

So which second basemen can we strike a deal on to acquire Marte?

Let’s focus on only second basemen in one-for-one swaps. We can eliminate most of these guys immediately. I know I’d be personally offended if a league-mate offered me a red-hot hitter they recently plucked off waivers, like Casey Schmitt, for Marte.

Here’s the potential pool: Brice Turang, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Ozzie Albies, José Caballero, Otto Lopez, JJ Wetherholt, Ildemaro Vargas, Xavier Edwards, Brandon Lowe

Clear Advantage Deals: Xavier Edwards, Otto Lopez, Brandon Lowe, Ildemaro Vargas

If your league-mate with Marte is a seasoned and/or savvy player, they might be offended by such offers. Though we all have that one person in our league who would strongly mull over a Vargas for Marte swap. Though Vargas is setting the league on fire, I believe most of us would exchange him for Marte in a heartbeat. We could sell Lopez as a younger version of Marte with the elite contact rate (career 81%), helpful batting average, improving power (46% HH), less homers, but more speed. Edwards would be a harder sell, unless it’s a league-mate who is really in the hole in stolen bases. For the recency bias-fueled league-mate, we can point out his current .333 batting average. Perhaps we casually work this gem into the conversation: “Pretty cool that the only two hitters with a .300 average and 60 stolen bases in at least 1,000 plate appearances since 2023 are Edwards and Ronald Acuña Jr.”

In the Ballpark Deals: José Caballero, JJ Wetherholt, Ozzie Albies, Nico Hoerner

These are potential deals that are more equitable with risk, and the potential to backfire, but can work to our advantage. Do we really throw preseason value out of the window after six weeks? Sure, Marte’s value has declined while this trio’s has risen, but Marte was well ahead of all three in preseason ADP (40 vs. 180+), and has the highest floor and track record of production. Caballero’s real-life value is at its peak as he’s shored up other parts of his game beyond the speed, but he would still be at risk of losing playing time if a slump corresponds with Anthony Volpe getting promoted and running hot. Marte’s job and role in the top third of the lineup won’t be impacted unless he is on the IL. Wetherholt has looked great through his first 35 games, but he will go through his share of struggles this year and the Cardinals can’t maintain their epic run-producing pace of the last two weeks. In a dynasty or keeper league, I’d rather have Wetherholt, but in redraft, Marte is the one we want.

Albies hasn’t provided a fantasy-friendly season since 2023. He’s riding the wave of scorching-hot offense and has moved up into key lineup slots (second vs. RHPs, third vs. LHPs). I assure you, the other shoe will drop, whether regression or another IL stint. Albies has a massive differential in BA (.331) and xBA (.268), owns a sub-5% barrel rate, a sub-30% hard-hit rate, and has been caught stealing on all three of his attempts. I’m not just cherry-picking stats here, I’m presenting facts. Marte vs. Hoerner is tough because Hoerner was a big preseason target who I had valued similar to Marte in 5×5.

Not Worth It: Jazz Chisholm Jr., Brice Turang

Turang and Jazz were the only two second basemen in Marte’s ADP range, both this spring and last spring, though Jazz wasn’t second base eligible before the 2024 season. Despite Jazz’s similar early-season struggles, it probably doesn’t make sense to offer him in a 1v1 for Marte because there is no clear advantage in doing so. Turang was the top-ranked 2B last season and is a good bet to be once again in 2026. Though it is an offer worth exploring if it includes a lower-level throw-in you’re interested in. High-strikeout starting pitchers who should be due for some positive ratio regression could fit the bill, like MacKenzie Gore or Reid Detmers.

Surely, I’m not telling you that BA-xBA differential should be a driving force behind a trade offer. Jeff Zimmerman would probably disown me as a friend and colleague. But for clear underperformers with solid track records, it’s a good place to start. If the 1-for-1 second base swap isn’t working for you, you can explore Marte deals for other positions, or extend the exercise for other early-season underperformers like Bo Bichette, Alec Bohm, or Lawrence Butler.