Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions of the weekend.

Fantasy baseball managers know that our game is the ultimate test of grit, grind, tenacity, and patience. Unlike fantasy football, where league titles can be won with minimal in-season activity, fantasy baseball leagues require incessant attention and activity. Particularly when it comes to free agent adds and drops. Real-life baseball managers are constantly adjusting batting orders, players are frequently optioned to and promoted from the Minor Leagues, and injuries occur almost daily. There’s no resting on our laurels. We must always stay vigilant with league news and notes and remain active on the waiver wire if we want to win our leagues.

Every week, I’ll dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.

Week 5 Overview

Ildemaro Vargas continues to tear it up, out of nowhere. He lead all hitters with 12 RBI last week with his team only playing five games, albeit two of them in Mexico City. More on him later. Nolan Arenado had an incredible week as well, going 11-18 with a homer and seven runs scored. That two-game Mexico City series did not disappoint as the Diamondbacks and Padres combined to score 29 runs.

Since returning from Paternity Leave, Michael Harris II is slashing .429/.468/.786 with 4 HR and 13 RBI in 13 games. Talk about #DadPower.

A few notable hitters who hit the skids in Week 5: Willy Adames (1-22), Dillon Dingler (1-21), Luis Robert Jr. (1-15), Austin Riley (2-26), CJ Abrams (2-22) and Kyle Schwarber (3-27). Oneil Cruz only managed three hits (3-23), but two were home runs. Over the last two weeks, Ezequiel Tovar is 5-43 (.116) with no RBI. Already one of the biggest chasers of bad pitches and arguably the worst plate discipline among MLB regulars, Tovar’s YTD walk rate (2.7%) and strikeout rate (30%) are worse than ever before. There will be better days ahead, but managers in 12- and 10-team leagues should continue finding alternatives for their rosters.

Nasim Nuñez was the only player with five stolen bases last week, and is the current Major League leader (13). Right behind him are José Ramírez, José Caballero (11) and Oneil Cruz and Jakob Marsee (10). Nuñez has the lowest ISO (.012) among 180 qualified hitters.

It was another week where two-start pitchers’ wins hovered around weekly expectations. Among 30 starting pitchers with two starts last week (let’s include Sean Burke and Chase Dollander, who entered their second appearances early in the games), only three earned wins in both — Justin Wrobleski, Landen Roupp, and Spencer Arrighetti — a rate of 9.6%. Nolan McLean led all pitchers in strikeouts (17 in 11.2 IP), Dollander was second (16 in 13) and Kyle Harrison was third. Harrison only pitched three innings on Tuesday (3 Ks) before punching out 12 Pirates in six innings on Saturday.

Louis Varland was the only reliever with three saves in Week 5. Rockies Victor Vodnik got rocked for five runs on Thursday, and secured a clean save in one of the doubleheader contests against the Mets on Sunday.

Let’s dive into the top trending acquisitions for Fantrax (waivers) and the NFBC 12-team OC (blind bid FAAB):

 Roster % is the current percentage of leagues rostering the player

+/-  is the percentage of leagues the player was added in the previous week

Ildemaro Vargas was the top addition on Fantrax. He’s been the Diamondbacks top producer, leading them in HR (six), RBI (20) and in wRC+ (203), wOBA (.473), and ISO (.354). His power metrics are all below average — 87.6 mph EV, 37% hard-hit, 7.1% barrel. That barrel rate is nearly three times his career rate, as is his seven degree launch angle. He recently earned first base eligibility, as he’s made himself comfortable there in the absence of Carlos Santana. With Geraldo Perdomo out of Sunday’s lineup, Vargas had the opportunity to lead off for the first time this season and delivered in grand style — 3-5, 3 R, 1 HR, 4 RBI. Vargas won’t finish the season as a top-three hitter in this offense, but could maintain an everyday (or almost everyday) role in this shallow lineup and deliver his best season. Though that shouldn’t be difficult considering he has never earned more than 303 plate appearances in a season.

The recent waiver pickup timing of Carlos Cortes is symbolic of the essence of fantasy baseball chaos. Cortes was a somewhat popular add before Week 4. The Athletics had seven home games, Brent Rooker was on the IL, and Cortes’ playing time was increasing, so the opportunity for production was ripe. Cortes went 3-16 with one run and one run batted in that week. Most managers dropped him before his epic Week 5 run of .542 (13-24), 4 R, 3 HR, 7 RBI. Now he’s popular again, but Rooker is back and Cortes will likely only make two starts, since the A’s are expected to face four lefty starters and Cortes doesn’t typically start against them. If you picked him up in weekly leagues, make sure you bench him for the week.

Nathan Church has been a pleasant surprise for the Cardinals. The left-handed-hitting 25-year-old rookie was an 11th-round draft pick in 2022 and produced between Double-A and Triple-A last season: .329/.386/.524, 13 HR, 16 SB in 385 PA (86 games). Church has been a mainstay against right-handed starters,, and has covered all three outfield positions, though he mainly plays left field. He stepped into the fantasy scene last week, going 8-19 with 4 HR, 7 RBI and a stolen base in six games, as the Cardinals faced all righties. He sports an 11.5% barrel rate, though his average exit velocity (86.6 mph) and hard-hit rate (38.5%) remain subpar. The Cardinals play seven this week and five of those matchups are against RHPs, though Church will be tested going up against the likes of Paul Skenes, Braxton Ashcraft, and Emmet Sheehan. His power/speed combo is intriguing for deeper leagues and he should not yet be on the radar for 12-teamers or shallower formats. Though, if matchups line up as they currently project, Church and the Cardinals should face seven RHPs the following week (Week 7, May 4 – May 10), though more tough tests are to come against studly Brewers and Padres arms.

% Lgs Added is the percentage of leagues that added the player (240 total leagues)

AWB stands for Average Winning Bid

This was a huge weekend for spending in NFBC managers, on par with last weekend when Noah Schultz and Spencer Arrighetti both earned triple-digit AWBs. The big ticket was Red Sox southpaw Payton Tolle, who dazzled in his 2026 debut, punching out 11 hitters in six innings from the Yankees on Thursday. The hulking (6’5”, 250) and famously mustachioed 23-year-old rocks a killer 97-mph four-seam fastball, and mixes in a cutter, curve and sinker, with an occasional changeup. He is locked in to face the Blue Jays in Toronto on Tuesday, and has a good opportunity to remain with the big-league club even when Sonny Gray is activated. To keep Brayan Bello (9.00 ERA, 2.27 WHIP, 13% K, 11.3% BB in 22 IP) over Tolle in the rotation would be a travesty, but could be par for the course for a front office that just fired manager Alex Cora and is feeling the heat from their fanbase.

JR Ritchie had a strong career debut last Thursday. The Braves top pitching prospect boasting a 0.99 ERA over five Triple-A starts fired seven innings against the Nationals. Ritchie struck out seven, and gave up two walks and two runs on five hits (two home runs). The next day, Atlanta manager Walt Weiss confirmed that Ritchie would remain in the majors for now. His next start is confirmed for Wednesday, at home against the Tigers. The timing of Ritchie’s promotion and impressive debut was perfect. It was one of several factors that drove his fantasy free agent market price up over the weekend. Didier Fuentes struggled in his start the day before (and was subsequently optioned to Triple-A). Reynaldo López got shelled last Monday (4 ER in 1 IP), and on Sunday, it was announced that he would move to the bullpen to work on his mechanics. So, even with Spencer Strider’s upcoming activation off the IL, there is still an open rotation spot and clear opportunity for Ritchie to gain some momentum and lock himself into the rotation. I did not acquire Ritchie in any leagues this weekend, but would call myself a founding member of his fan club. I drafted him in my first 50-round NFBC Draft Champions back in November. I also drafted him in my live Main Event in Las Vegas and stashed him on my bench for the last 5.5 weeks. Who wants to pay retail anyway?

Jack Perkins is emerging as the Athletics most reliable bullpen option. After earning a save earlier in the week, Perkins impressed on Sunday by locking down a two-inning save. Middling veteran righty Joel Kuhnel ran into some trouble in two early-week appearances (6 H, 2 ER in 1.2 IP). In Sunday’s tilt against the Rangers, Kuhnel appeared in the fourth inning for banged-up starter J.T. Ginn. RosterResource currently displays Perkins, Kuhnel and lefty Hogan Harris as a committee. Though, Perkins is best suited to handle ninth inning duties, he’s an effective multi-inning arm who manager Mark Kotsay could easily deploy in various relief scenarios, including early innings. Perkins was my most-added RP, so I am ready to be hurt again. But I will not overreact to his usage this week and intent to stand firm with Perkins on my roster. Well, barring an 8-ER implosion or IL stint, of course.

Drop of the Week

This week, it’s a four-way tie between “closers” Edwin Díaz (LAD), Jordan Romano (LAA), Clayton Beeter (WSN), and Caleb Thielbar (CHC). Each stung in its own way — Díaz due to expectations and high-draft capital and Romano because of the ratio damage. Don’t be surprised to see more carnage next weekend in what is the craziest season for closers and saves in recent memory.

Jazz, finally!

Expect Fernando Tatis Jr.’s first dinger of the season in Mexico City this weekend.

On the Agenda: 

1. Closer Chaos
2. Quick Hits
3. Various News and Notes
4. Streaming Pitchers

Closer Chaos

Abner Uribe entered the bottom of the ninth in a tie game and served up the walkoff bomb to Spencer Torkelson.

Could it be Trevor Megill time in Milwaukee again, soon?

Diamondbacks closer Paul Sewald entered Thursday’s tie game in the ninth and got hammered. He walked two batters and gave up a 3-run homer to Andrew Benintendi. Sewald has been lights-out in save opportunities. The lights are off when it’s not one:

Paul Sewald in tie games (3 G):
1.2 IP, 4 H, 6 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 3 HR.

Paul Sewald in all other games (9 G):
8.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 11 K, 0 HR.

— Jesse Friedman (@JesseNFriedman) April 23, 2026

White Sox closer Seranthony Domínguez stepped into the bottom of the ninth and protected their 4-1 lead with his fifth save.

Tanner Scott locked down his first save of the season in a 3-0 win over the rival Giants. Scott and fellow lefty Alex Vesia have manager Dave Roberts’ trust and will be the two relievers called upon for save chances. Vesia has yet to allow a run this season. He is an excellent relief pitcher but has running a bit hot (.111 BABIP, 100% LOB).

Quick Hits

Francisco Lindor‘s calf MRI did not supply Mets fans with the good news they were looking for. Lindor’s strain is considered worse than Juan Soto’s and it’s possible that Lindor will be out until after Memorial Day. I wonder if Juan will call and check in on Frankie from time to time.

Orioles righty Dean Kremer appeared to be on the precipice of a breakout season, rocking a 16:2 K:BB through his first two starts (11 innings). Unfortunately for those who acquired him over the weekend, Kremer was placed on the 15-day injured list with a right quadriceps strain. Lefty Brandon Young will be called up to start Friday’s contest.

The Marlins called up speedy outfielder Esteury Ruiz, who stole 67 bags in 497 plate appearances for the Athletics in 2023. Veteran short-side platoon outfielder Austin Slater was designated for assignment.

Various News and Notes

Gerrit Cole is getting closer and closer. He looked good in his rehab start, throwing 42-of-52 strikes with four punchouts and two runs allowed in 4.1 innings. Cole will continue to build up his pitch count throughout his minor league assignment, which could last another two to three weeks.

Pirates righty Bubba Chandler continues to struggle. Rangers outfielder Evan Carter had a two-run, inside-the-park home run and Corey Seager hit a three-run home run, bringing Chandler’s ERA up to 4.88.

Meanwhile, Oneil Cruz continues to prove the draft season haters (including me) wrong. Cruz hit his eighth homer of the season in the fifth off Jacob deGrom. Cruz should re-take the top spot on the FanGraphs Player Rater after Thursday’s stats are are processed overnight. Konnor Griffin’s average dipped to .182 after another 0-4 afternoon.

It’s never too late for a breakout! Jayson Werth, er, Brandon Marsh crushed two home runs on Thursday:

Marsh brought his average up to .300 and his slugging percentage to .500. Manager Rob Thomson has so far kept his promise of letting Marsh face more left-handed pitching — he’s been in the starting lineup in six of the last nine lefties the Phillies have faced. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been that effective against them: 3-17 with 7 Ks and no RBIs. Rookie Felix Reyes could eat into some of Marsh’s playing time.

Streaming Pitchers (Under 50% in Yahoo)

Pitcher for Today: Max Scherzer vs. CLE

The Blue Jays are rare home underdogs as the Guardians come to town with a scorching Gavin Williams toeing the rubber on Sunday. We can’t confidently stream Scherzer like in years’ past, but on a slate with few sub-50% rostered options, a home tilt where the game’s projected run total is just 8.0 is certainly worth a shot.

Other Options: None, but be sure to stream hitters in the Miles Mikolas/Erick Fedde 페디 barnburner.

Pitcher for Tomorrow: Kodai Senga vs. COL

It’s been a disastrous season for Senga so far (8.83 ERA), but it isn’t all on him. Senga has a 3.95 xERA, 4.04 SIERA, .413 BABIP and a 54.7% strand rate. His fastball velocity (96.3 mph) is up from last season (94.7) and he has 22 punchouts in 17.1 innings. A date with the Rockies in his home turf might be just what Senga needs.

Other Options: Walbert Urena at KC, Bryce Elder vs. PHI

Two (II) dingers for new dad, Michael Harris II

On the Agenda: 

1. Closer Chaos
2. Quick Hits
3. Various News and Notes
4. Streaming Pitchers

Closer Chaos

The Giants’ ninth inning is slightly less murky now. Ryan Walker was called upon tonight to close out the game. It was his second save conversion in as many games.

With Raisel Iglesias (shoulder) on the IL, Robert Suarez assumes ninth inning duties for the Braves. Suarez locked down the save on Wednesday, his second of the season. Suarez was the Major League saves leader over the last two seasons. Iglesias’ MRI showed no structural damage. He should take his job back if he returns to full health, but there are no guarantees.

Before the week began, Joel Kuhnel had not allowed a run in six appearances and was quickly earning high leverage duties and save opportunities. He earned the save on Monday, but allowed his first earned run in a 6-4 victory over the Mariners. On Wednesday, Kuhnel entered the ninth inning in a tie game, but allowed four hits and the game-winning run. It’s quite possible that a much more talented righty in that bullpen by the name of Jack Perkins quickly earns ninth inning opportunities ahead of Kuhnel. Perkins earned his first save of the season on Tuesday. He worked as a reliever and starter last season, scoring four saves and starting four games.

Quick Hits

Guess who’s back! The Braves are expected to promote veteran righty Carlos Carrasco and employ him in long relief. Carrasco has a 1.71 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 18 strikeouts and five walks over four starts at Triple-A Gwinnett.

It’s an exciting few days for pitchers. Twins lefty prospect Connor Prielipp made his MLB debut on Wednesday and Braves pitcher JR Ritchie makes his today. Payton Tolle (BOS) and Christian Scott (NYM) have made starts in the big leagues before, but will be promoted to make their season debuts today. On Saturday, wily veteran Zack Wheeler will make his first start for the Phillies in 2026. Wheeler has made five rehab starts since March 28, posting a 5.14 ERA, 1.20 WHIP with a 19:2 K:BB over 20 innings.

The Mets finally ended their 12-game losing streak with a 3-2 victory over the Twins in Juan Soto’s triumphant return, but there was carnage. Francisco Lindor was removed from the contest with left calf tightness and will have an MRI today.

The Rangers placed snakebit outfielder Wyatt Langford (forearm) on the IL on Wednesday. Langford does not expect to be out longer than 10 days, but we’ve heard that before. Outfielder Alejandro Osuna was promoted.

The Diamondbacks expect to activate catcher Gabriel Moreno next week.

The Phillies placed catcher J.T. Realmuto on the IL due to back spasms. Thirty-two-year-old Garrett Stubbs was promoted and should split time behind the plate with Rafael Marchán.

Various News and Notes

José Soriano was masterful again, hurling five scoreless innings with four strikeouts and no walks allowed.

Soriano became the first pitcher since 1900 to allow one run or fewer across his first six starts of the season.

Max Fried had an incredible outing against the rival Red Sox (8 IP – 3 H – 0 ER – 2 BB – 9 K) to take his record to 3-1. It was the second time this season that he’s reached eight innings. He has thrown at least 90 pitches in every start except the season opener, 86 against the Giants.

The Giants shut the Dodgers down, winning 3-0. Neither starter allowed a run — Shohei Ohtani threw six innings and Tyler Mahle allowed just three hits in seven innings. It was a much-needed bounce back start for Mahle after allowing 8 ER in 4 IP to his former team, the Reds, last week.

Yordan Alvarez hit his league-leading 11th home run of the season.

Newcomer Peter Lambert dazzled in this contest, hurling six scoreless innings, with three hits, three walks and eight strikeouts. It was Lambert’s second start as a member of the Astros. Lambert owned a career ERA over 6.00 in four partial seasons with the Rockies before spending a season pitching in Japan last year. Lambert was a second-round draft pick of the Rockies in 2015. He’s been shoving his four-seam fastball at 95 mph, which is 2-3 ticks up from his days with the Rockies.

Streaming Pitchers (Under 50% in Yahoo)

Pitcher for Today: Brandon Sproat at DET

There are only a few options under 50% on this transition day Thursday slate. Sproat had a rough start with the Brewers, but bounced back nicely against the Blue Jays in his last start, punching out six over 6.2 innings with one run allowed. This contest has a 7-run total (mostly because of Skubal) and could turn into a pitchers’ duel.

Pitcher for Tomorrow: Kodai Senga vs. COL

It’s been a disastrous season for Senga so far (8.83 ERA), but it isn’t all on him. Senga has a 3.95 xERA, 4.04 SIERA, .413 BABIP and a 54.7% strand rate. His fastball velocity (96.3 mph) is up from last season (94.7) and he has 22 punchouts in 17.1 innings. A date with the Rockies in his home turf might be just what Senga needs.

Other Option: Walbert Urena at KC

Trades are the lifeblood of fantasy baseball home leagues. The conversations around them help keep us connected and engaged, and make our league more fun.

Striking deals isn’t always easy. There are often hurt feelings around lopsided proposals, league-mates who value players differently, and that one guy who wants to veto everything. We can improve our fantasy squads with the waiver wire, but our collective hit rates are low. Quite often, those pickups backfire — a hitter’s cold streak or a pitcher’s blowup, which inevitably leads to dropping the player. The one facet we have control of in home leagues is trading.

Managers are often emotionally tied to certain players – specifically, missed draft targets or players from their favorite baseball team. Also, we’re not all great at zooming out to a long-term view and getting stuck in the moment. Good analysis can be washed away by recency bias and small sample sizes. No one can force us to make a deal, so it’s the one element of the game we have some control over and can use proper value assessment and negotiation techniques to our advantage.

This column will recommend hitters and pitchers to try selling high or buying low, and touch on trade strategies. No two leagues or two managers are the same. You know your league-mates best: what kind of deal they’ll scoff at, which player type they’re willing to deal for or acquire, and how good their player and market-valuation skills are. I’ll dig deep and present realistic opportunities.

SIERA and K-BB% to Spot Under- and Over-Performing SPs

ERA indicators or ERA estimators or peripherals — these are interchangeable terms for a set of Sabermetric statistics that fantasy baseball managers use to help predict future performance of pitchers. These ERA indicators (xERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA) are not interchangeable since they include different inputs and have varying purposes. FIP excludes balls hit into play. xFIP utilizes the league average HR/FB%. SIERA incorporates a pitcher’s underlying skill level into the equation and adjusts for the type of balls in play. The SI stands for “Skills Interactive”, and you can learn more about SIERA in the original article here. SIERA is far from perfect, but many studies over the last 15 years have proven it to have a slightly higher correlation to ERA than the other indicators.

Over the years, I have utilized a simple formula (ERA minus SIERA) to identify pitchers who could be deemed “lucky”, with negative regression on the horizon, and vice versa — “unlucky” with a higher likelihood of positive regression. To further qualify the luck or lack thereof, I review BABIP and LOB% (left-on-base rate, or strand rate). In the context of fantasy baseball FAAB/waiver pickups or trades, I dig into pitchers’ year-to-date starts and look at their projected upcoming starts – both from a perspective of ballpark/environment and strength of opponent. Moreover, and most importantly, I am reviewing the most important metric of all, which is K-BB% (the difference between their strikeout rate and walk rate). Proficient at punching batters out, able to locate pitches and not walk a lot of guys? You’re probably going to have above-average results.

Before our sage readers bring out their pitchforks, note that I recognize there is a lot of nuance here and not everything can be overly simplified. Of course, a high or low BABIP is impacted by team defense, or if a pitcher generates weak or hard contact. Nevertheless, I assume a pitcher with four seasons of around a league-average BABIP (.290) who has a .365 BABIP through five starts is going to regress towards his career mean. The same for a pitcher with a 100% LOB% through five starts, regressing towards the league average of 70-75%.

The perfect example for this point in the season is the pitcher who has been the very best in baseball, Los Angeles Angels righty, José Soriano.

Through five starts, Soriano has a 0.28 ERA, 3.04 SIERA, 2.82 xFIP, 21.7 K-BB%, .149 BABIP, and a 100% LOB.

In his first two full seasons as a starter (2024-2025), those rates were: 3.93 ERA, 3.97 SIERA, 3.65 xFIP, 10.6 K-BB%, .291 BABIP, and a 69% LOB.

It wouldn’t be far-fetched to assume that Soriano will regress from a 0.28 ERA. In fact, it’s common sense. His BABIP and LOB will regress towards his league-average marks from 2024-2025, but likely both will still be well above league-average. We see that his 2024-2025 ERA, SIERA, and xFIP were similar (in the 3.65-4.00 range) and that his current indicators are closer to 3.00. If Soriano ends up with a 3.50 ERA this season, that means there’s some ERA damage to come (to be expected), but he will still end up being a massive provider of fantasy profit at his 250+ ADP. The question to ask ourselves in trade leagues: can we net a top-10 starting pitcher for Soriano in a “sell-high” scenario from a league-mate who only peruses box scores, doesn’t dive into advanced metrics or consider indicators?

Let’s take a look at the qualified starting pitchers with the highest (unluckiest) and lowest (luckiest) differentials between their ERA and SIERA. I use “unlucky” and “lucky” in quotations for these sorted leaderboards to simply denote these differentials noting that luck isn’t a metric.

Unluckiest Starting Pitchers To Date

We knew the Jesús Luzardo Experience would be the ultimate roller coaster going into the season. Luzardo is a top-10 skills arm with extreme highs and lows. This is the guy who served up 20 earned runs in back-to-back starts in the week of the 2025 Memorial Day holiday, but allowed two runs or fewer in 50% (16/32) of his starts last season. Luzardo punched out seven or more batters in 18 of those 32 starts. So far in 2026, Luzardo has an exceptional 30:5 K:BB in 22 innings, an extremely high BABIP of .417 (career: .307), a super low LOB of 41.7% (career: 70%) and a massive difference between his ERA (7.94) and SIERA/xFIP (2.45/1.93). He is the ultimate “buy-low” target, though whether we strike a deal or not is based on mindset of the league-mate who currently rosters him. Are they metrics-saavy and have good fantasy common sense? If so, you probably won’t get a surefire advantage on a deal. Would I trade Soriano for Luzardo? It’s 10x more equitable than it was on March 15, but yes, yes I would, and I’d obnoxiously ask for a throw-in player “to make the deal fair.” (winky emoji)

There is no doubting the high level of concern someone who drafted Garrett Crochet in the first or second round of their draft might have. His implosion in Minnesota (10 ER in 1.2 IP) came out of the blue. Last Sunday, he cruised through four innings against the Tigers before getting torched for four runs on two singles and two homers, in the fifth. Crochet’s BABIP is high (.368) and LOB is low (55.6%), though not at extreme Luzardo levels. His fastball velocity is slightly down from last season (0.5 mph), as is his strikeout rate (-5.4%) and his swinging-strike rate (-3%). It doesn’t look awful under the hood, but because Crochet was drafted as a top-3 pitcher and these blowups are uncharacteristic of him, the trepidation in dealing for him is high.

Digging into FanGraphs player profiles on the rest of these players elicit a common theme in addition to the large ERA-SIERA differentials: above-average BABIPs, below-average LOBs, and, for the most part, a slight velocity decrease. In the case of Mike Burrows, his SwStr% is up from last season (12% to 12.7%) and his barrel rate is greatly reduced (10.8% to 5.7%). Burrows’ next three projected starts are against the Yankees (home), Red Sox (away), and Dodgers (home), so perhaps we weather the storm and pluck him off waivers in a few weeks when his schedule improves.

Yusei Kikuchi’s four-seam fastball velocity is slightly up from last season (94.8 mph to 95.4), but it’s an offering he continues to decrease because it typically gets crushed. He’s an example of a pitcher I typically avoid drafting and want nothing to do with. Streaming Jake Irvin (career 4.99 ERA) is always a case of playing with fire. He’s another pitcher I never want anything to do with.

David Peterson and Aaron Nola are on the downswings of their careers, but both have a high chance of improving their ERAs. Everything under the hood appears similar to last season. Logan Webb, Nathan Eovaldi, and Logan Gilbert are three arms I’d explore deals on.

Luckiest Starting Pitchers To Date

Other than Soriano, the standout “lucky” pitcher worth shopping is Justin Wrobleski. The sample size is smaller than most on the list (24 IP: three starts, one 4-IP piggyback), but we can still confidently yell “negative regression” so long as our league-mates don’t hear it. Wrobleski has a 9.8% strikeout rate (9 Ks), a .205 BABIP and has yet to allow a home run. Wrobleski earns confidence points as a member of the Dodgers rotation, but will rarely earn two starts in a week because of they run a six-man, and he’s no lock to remain in it for the long-run with Blake Snell and River Ryan eventually joining it.

Seth Lugo has been masterful through five starts, but he’s the same guy he’s always been — 91-92 mph FB velo, 8-9% BB, sub-10% SwStr. The big difference this season is he has yet to allow a home run. Edward Cabrera hasn’t allowed a home run either, but there is little else in his profile to elicit confidence. Cabrera’s .286 BABIP is close to his career mark and to league-average, his strikeout rate is way down (25.8% to 18.7%), his 12.1% walk rate is closer to his career mark (11.7%) which may portend last season’s 8.3% as an outlier, and his Stuff+ ratings are down across the board. Cabrera’s next start is against the Phillies at home, this Thursday. I would not be looking to trade for E-Cab, though I would explore dealing him for a more durable pitcher with a higher health grade around his preseason ADP, like MacKenzie Gore or Robbie Ray.

Many others on this list aren’t particularly enticing from a name-brand, reputation or fantasy value perspective — Michael Wacha, Clay Holmes, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Bryce Elder fall under this category. Seeing Jack Flaherty’s 3.7 K-BB% induces agita, especially when noting the decline from 2024 (24%) and 2025 (18.9%). We can’t technically call it a decline yet since it’s only been five starts, but he’s another roller coaster guy who is tough to ride with. Last season, he served up at least four earned runs in 26% of his starts failed to reach the fifth inning in 28%. He somehow managed an 8-15 record on a playoff team that finished 12 games above .500.

There will always be outliers, but the holes poked into this process would be tiny pinholes. This process have assisted in my fantasy baseball endeavors for many years and I always strive to improve it and learn from experience and those around me. Reviewing ERA and SIERA differentials, BABIP and LOB rates relative to average, recent and future matchups, and of course strikeout-to-walk ratios are good first steps in assessing over/underperforming pitchers and their rest-of-season fantasy value.

Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions of the weekend.

Fantasy baseball managers know that our game is the ultimate test of grit, grind, tenacity, and patience. Unlike fantasy football, where league titles can be won with minimal in-season activity, fantasy baseball leagues require incessant attention and activity. Particularly when it comes to free agent adds and drops. Real-life baseball managers are constantly adjusting batting orders, players are frequently optioned to and promoted from the Minor Leagues, and injuries occur almost daily. There’s no resting on our laurels. We must always stay vigilant with league news and notes and remain active on the waiver wire if we want to win our leagues.

Every week, I’ll dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.

Week 4 Overview

There’s a new no. 1 hitter in 5×5 roto and it’s Yankees’ Ben Rice! Rice slashed .300/.423/.900 in 25 plate appearances last week, with 7 R, 4 HR, and 6 RBI.

Here are the top-ranked year-to-date hitters and pitchers in 12-team roto through four weeks:

José Ramírez had a massive week against the Cardinals and Orioles. He scored nine runs, hit four home runs and lead the Majors with five stolen bases.

Mike Trout and Aaron Judge led the week in power, with five dingers apiece. Hitters with four: Ramírez, Rice, Yordan Alvarez, Munetaka Murakami and Jeremiah Jackson. Murekami has gone deep in three straight games.

James Wood (hitter no. 8) batted .185 with a week-high 14 strikeouts in 27 at-bats, but hit two bombs and swiped two bags. Wood leads all hitters in strikeouts (35 in 22 games), but is only 14th in strikeout rate (32.4%) among qualified hitters. Matt Wallner (42%) and Hunter Goodman (39.8%) are the league leaders. Athletics’ Nick Kurtz was the only guy with double-digit walks last week (10). Kurtz has the highest walk rate (25.3%) among qualified hitters.

A surprising fact: Nico Hoerner is tied for the league lead in runs batted in (21) along with Yordan Alvarez and Andy Pages.

Among 35 starting pitchers who threw two starts, only three (8.5%) earned two wins: George Kirby, Gavin Williams and Michael King. Garrett Crochet allowed 15 earned runs in his two starts. Others who got crushed: Mike Burrows, Javier Assad (10 ER), Trevor Rogers, Ryne Nelson, Luis Severino (9), and Jeffrey Springs and Zack Littell (8). Jesús Luzardo and  Tyler Mahle allowed eight runs each, but in just one start each.

Mason Miller continues to dominate. He led the week with four saves (four appearances) with four strikeouts and just one hit and one walk allowed.

Let’s dive into the top trending acquisitions for Fantrax (waivers) and the NFBC 12-team OC (blind bid FAAB):

Roster % is the current percentage of leagues rostering the player; +/-  is the percentage of leagues the player was added in the previous week

Jeremiah Jackson was the most popular hitter addition in Fantrax following his breakout week: 27 PA – .346/.370/.846 – 4 R, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 1 SB. Jackson has earned 10 straight starts, taking advantage of playing time opportunities on an offense riddled with injuries (Jordan Westburg, Jackson Holliday, Tyler O’Neill, Adley Rutschman). A right-handed hitter, Jackson usually bats eighth or ninth against RHPs and fifth or sixth against LHPs. Jackson, who turned 26 on Opening Day, was a second-round draft pick of the Angels in 2018. The Angels traded him to the Mets for Dominic Leone at the 2023 trade deadline. Jackson signed with the Orioles as a free agent in 2025 and made his major league debut on August 1. Jackson stuck with the Orioles for the rest of the season, batting .273 with 5 HR and 21 RBI in 183 PA (48 games). He has carried over his success into his first full season. Though Jackson deserves full-time at-bats, he is likely to fall into a short-side platoon with Jackson Holliday at second base. Jackson (Jeremiah, not Holliday) can also play in the outfield, where he can step in for Colton Cowser against southpaws, to keep his bat in the lineup.

Spencer Arrighetti, Keider Montero and Justin Wrobleski were the top additions among starting pitchers. All three are slated to earn two starts in Week 5. Arrighetti had a sparkling 2026 debut (6 IP – 1 H – 1 ER – 10 K), though it was against the Rockies, at home. Wrobleski tossed eight scoreless innings with just two hits allowed against the Mets last Monday. He locks into a two-start week within this six-man rotation because the Dodgers play seven games. Montero will receive an extended opportunity in the Tigers rotation since 43-year-old Justin Verlander’s recovery is “going a little slower” than he or the Tigers anticipated (but we anticipated it, didn’t we?).

Daniel Schneemann is the quintessential example of Fool’s Gold — a below-average hitter who had a great week and is more likely to cool off and be dropped soon. Schneemann started 5-of-6 last week at second, third and shortstop, including one start against a lefty. The Guardians are slated to face six RHPs this week. That bodes well for his playing time, though he’ll face Arrighetti on Tuesday and tough Blue Jays arms (Max Scherzer, Kevin Gausman, Dylan Cease) on the weekend.

% Lgs Added is the percentage of leagues that added the player (240 total leagues); AWB stands for Average Winning Bid

The tallest player in the Majors has arrived! All hail, 6’10” Noah Schultz! The heralded southpaw pitching prospect ran into trouble in his debut on Tuesday (3 H, 3 ER, 4 BB in 4.1 IP) against the Rays on Tuesday. He followed that up with a dominant start against the Athletics in Sacramento on Sunday (5 IP – 1 H – 1 ER – 1 BB – 6 K), the lone damage on a Darell Hernaiz home run. Schultz rocks a five-pitch mix (four-seamer, sinker, sweeper, cutter, changeup). His primary fastball averages 96.4 mph. He threw it at a 31.7% rate, mostly against right-handed batters. Schultz utilized his sinker and sweeper more for the lefties. He should remain on fantasy rosters of all formats as long as he stays healthy, though more rough starts are to be expected. His schedule lines up favorably the next few weeks: home against the Nationals, at Padres, at Angels, home against the Royals.

Fellow White Sox rookie Sam Antonacci was also promoted to the big club last week. His slow start may have slightly kept his AWB below $50 — he went 2-20 with two walks, two hit by pitches, one run and one stolen base. It would likely take more than just one more week of an ice-cold bat for him to be demoted, though it’s likely that he hits the bench against left-handed starters. Antonacci stole 48 bases on 58 attempts  in the minors last season. He did not make his Triple-A debut until 2026. He should be helpful in stolen bases and batting average once he gets acclimated. He should eventually earn the leadoff gig against RHPs.

Bryce Elder carries his 0.77 ERA and 1.03 WHIP through four starts into a two-start week against the Nationals (away) and Phillies (home). Elder doesn’t have a good fantasy reputation. The proverbial other shoe could drop in any start, but things look good under the hood. His .271 BABIP nor 2.74 FIP portend great luck, his hard-hit rate is way down (from 44.5% the last two seasons to 31.7% this season) and he’s only allowed one total barrel on 91 batters faced. Another positive is his control — Elder has maintained a sub-8% walk rate since 2024, which is 42 starts. There certainly are no guarantees that he sticks with the rotation all season, especially with Spencer Strider and eventually Didier Fuentes and JR Ritchie joining, but he deserves to remain in it for now. It’s fair to have concerns about him in the back of our heads, though we probably have bigger things to worry about if we have Cole Ragans and Trevor Rogers on our squads.

Saves have been a huge point of frustration in roto leagues as bullpens have been ravaged. It’s not just the typical chaos among the lower-tier guys, it’s most of the studs except Mason Miller.

The RP2 during draft season, Edwin Díaz, elicited concerns after a rough inning on April 10 against the Rangers (four hits, one walk, three earned runs), had eight days off then got cooked by the Rockies on Sunday — a walk, three hits and three runs allowed without an out. It’s interesting that Alex Vesia procured a higher AWB in NFBC OCs than Tanner Scott ($28 to $23). It feels like fantasy managers there are box score watching, making assumptions for the immediate future because Vesia earned the two most recent saves. Vesia pitched the last two days and will likely be unavailable on Monday in Coors. Whether or not Díaz goes on the IL, even if it’s just a phantom stint, expect Scott to earn the bulk of the opportunities. He’s been terrific and has significant closer experience. I’m predicting a three-save week.

The other notable relievers acquired this week were Brad Keller (PHI), Joel Kuhnel (ATH), Caleb Thielbar (CHC), Enyel De Los Santos (HOU) and Louis Varland (TOR). Phillies manager Rob Thomson wants Keller to handle the bulk of save opportunities while Jhoan Duran (oblique strain) remains on the IL. A converted reliever, Keller enjoyed his official breakout year last season (2.07 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 27.2% K, 8% BB). He has nine punchouts, three walks and four earned runs allowed in nine appearances (8.2 innings). Fireballer lefty José Alvarado may earn opportunities as well, but Keller is the primary guy. Duran will likely need more than the minimum 15 days.

Thielbar is a 39-year-old veteran lefty with five career saves since 2013 until he stepped in to close out Saturday’s contest. Thielbar followed that up with a win as the pitcher of record in the 10th inning as the Cubs swept the Mets, handing them their 11th straight loss. The Cubs will be without closer Daniel Palencia (oblique) for a few weeks, who joins fellow relievers Hunter Harvey and Phil Maton on the IL, leaving the Cubs’ bullpen thin. Righty Ben Brown is their best reliever. He has mostly managed a multi-innings bridge role, though it wouldn’t be shocking to see him earn a save chance or two this week.

De Los Santos has stepped up as the Astros’ top righty in the bullpen with Bryan Abreu struggling badly. De Los Santos could a worthwhile interim closer as the team awaits Josh Hader’s return in three-to-four weeks.

Varland was mostly acquired as Jeff Hoffman insurance and as a common sense speculation pick with how badly Hoffman has been struggling. Varland has a 16:3 K:BB in 11 innings without allowing a run. Hoffman has 20 punchouts in 9.1 innings, but has already racked up three blown saves and eight runs allowed(six in his last two appearances). Blue Jays’ John Schneider doesn’t appear to be as worried as we are. I believe Schneider will give Hoffman the next save opportunity, but if he blows it, Varland would step in.

Drop of the Week

It may not feel great to click, but it makes sense for every fantasy manager without an available IL slot to drop Nick Pivetta. Pivetta was diagnosed with a right flexor strain earlier this week and Padres manager says that his rehab and rest time would be “weeks, maybe months”. There is reason to soak up a valuable bench spot on a pitcher who may or may not return before the All-Star break.

Can’t stop this man!

On the Agenda:

1. Closer Chaos
2. Various News and Notes
3. Streaming Pitchers

Closer Chaos

Is this the worst start to the season for closers ever? The chaos continues:

• Lucas Erceg (Royals) – first blown save; ERA is up to 6.14
• Clayton Beeter (Nationals) – second blown save; got the win; Orlando Ribalta earned his first career save
• Dennis Santana (Pirates) – took the loss in the 10th
• Ryan Walker (Giants) – entered the game after the starter (7th inning); Keaton Winn pitched the 8th, Erik Miller got the save
• Seranthony Domínguez (White Sox) – blew his second save of the year and took the loss
• Trevor Megill (Brewers) – pitched a clean inning, but it was the eighth (2 Ks); Angel Zerpa notched the save; Abner Uribe was unavailable
• Jakob Junis (Rangers) – came on in the 7th and got two outs; came back in the 8th, gave up a single, a double, and IBB to load the bases; was pulled for Jacob Latz, who gave up a bases-clearing double, hanging Junis with 3 ER

Meanwhile, Mason Miller struck out the side again and his extended his scoreless streak to 30.2 innings:

Miller has 23 punchouts in 9.1 innings — a 76.7% strikeout rate.

Various News and Notes

Cleveland Guardians rookie pitcher Parker Messick took a no-hit bid into the ninth inning, serving up a single to Orioles outfielder Leody Taveras.

Messick set a career high in strikeouts (eight) and boasts a 1.05 ERA and 0.78 WHIP through his first four starts.

San Francisco Giants righty Landen Roupp dominated the Reds on Thursday. He allowed just one hit and two walks over six scoreless innings. His ratios are down to a sparkling 2.38 and 0.97. Another late-round gem…at least, so far.

Braves veterans Sean Murphy and Spencer Strider both started their rehab assignments in High-A on Thursday. Strider threw 50 pitches (27 strikes) over 3.1 innings. He struck out three and allowed two walks and one hit. Most importantly, his fastball velocity sat between 95 and 97 mph, which is exactly what we want to see. Strider will continue to build up his pitch count, make another couple of starts in the Minors, and return to the Braves in early May, barring a setback.

Angels manager Kurt Suzuki mentioned Chase Silseth as a candidate for save opportunities if Jordan Romano is removed from the role. Silseth has 6:4 K:BB in 6.1 innings. Meanwhile, Kirby Yates (knee) should be starting a rehab assignment soon.

Streaming Pitchers

Pitchers for Today: Michael Soroka (RH, ARZ, 60% on Yahoo!)

Cheating on the %-rostered a bit since there aren’t many viable streaming options. The Diamondbacks will be home favorites and Soroka has pitched well so far.

Other Options: Zack Littell (RH, WSH, 7%)

Littell is a plus control and location guy, but this is more so a bet against the Giants.

Pitchers for Tomorrow: Lance McCullers Jr. (RH, HOU, 22% Y!, down 2% in the last 24 hours)

The Astros pushed their rotation back by a day and McCullers will now start against the Cardinals on Saturday. He threw a gem in his only home start (1 ER, 9 K in 7 IP), but was knocked around in his road starts.

Other Options: Cade Cavalli (RH, WSH, 10%)

Cavalli has been shaky this season (8 ER, 12 BB in 15.2 IP). We don’t have much in terms of streaming options on a slate filled with aces. Let’s pick on the Giants, the lowest-scoring team in the Majors, in hopes of a Cavalli bounce-back start.

Sorry, Julio. It’s not the second half of the season yet!

On the Agenda:

1. Closer Chaos
2. Quick Hits
3. Various News and Notes
4. Streaming Pitchers

Closer Chaos

It was a rough one. We might be here awhile.

Andrés Muñoz entered the game with a 6-2 lead in the bottom of the ninth (non-save situation) and got hammered for five earned runs on four hits and a walk. His ERA ballooned from 3.00 to 9.45 and he’s up to free passes in 6.2 innings. It was his first appearance since last Saturday. The outing won’t cost Muñoz his job, but we’re certainly all #onwatch. Matt Brash is likely next in line, should it come to that. He’s currently the only Mariners reliever who has yet to allow a run.

The Mets’ woes continue as they’ve lost eight straight and are one loss away from their longest losing streak in 22 years. Closer Devin Williams entered the game in the eighth down 3-1 and fell apart at the seams…literally. The destruction culminated in a Dalton Rushing grand slam:

FIRST CAREER GRAND SLAM FOR DALTON RUSHING 🔥

LA breaks open the scoring in the 8th inning! pic.twitter.com/6r4zqvvP2o

— ESPN (@espn) April 16, 2026

Williams won’t lose his job for this. These were his first runs allowed as a Met and Luke Weaver has been much worse (6 ER in 6.2 IP: an 8.10 ERA).

Remember when I made fun of A’s reliever Joel Kuhnel on Monday? Well, life comes at us fast and the roto gods humble us quickly. He picked up his third save of the season and looked good doing it.

Kuhnel entered the contest with two outs in the eighth after Mark Leiter Jr. served up a three-run, pinch-hit bomb to Jake Burger, got the final out and pitched a clean ninth. Lefty Hogan Harris came on in the fifth inning after starter J.T. Ginn and was credited for the win. Kuhnel looks like the guy right now.

Enyel De Los Santos has scored saves in back-to-back games and might be in the mix for more opportunities. The 30-year-old is on his eighth Major League team in eight seasons and owns a career 4.39 ERA. Bryan Abreu earned a hold in Wednesday’s game, walking one batter and punching out two. Abreu brought his ERA down to 12.79.

With Trevor Megill having the night off after a rough day on Tuesday (3 ER), Abner Uribe was called upon in the ninth to secure a 2-1 victory over the reeling Blue Jays, and he delivered. Despite manager Pat Murphy coming to Megill’s defense when Brewers fans booed him on Tuesday, Megill is officially #onwatch.

I’d like to think this is a safe space, but since there’s a comments section and some of you may have picked this guy off waivers two weeks ago, I won’t bring him up, but can tell you his name rhymes with Gordon Soprano. Let’s hope he travels with the team and doesn’t accept an offer to ride the scenic route home through the Nevada desert.

Quick Hits

Angels outfielder Jorge Soler had his suspension dropped to four games and he began serving it on Wednesday. He should be back in the starting lineup on Sunday when the Angels face Michael King and the Padres.

Players placed on the injured list on Wednesday: Jared Young (1B, NYM), Kyle Freeland (SP, COL, should help his ERA), Chris Martin (RP, TEX) and San Francisco Giants outfielder Harrison Bader, who was slashing .115/.145/.192 through 15 games. Fellow outfielder Jared Oliva also went on the IL. The Giants called up Will Brennan (a right-handed hitter who should start against LHPs only) and local fan favorite, Drew Gilbert.

Various News and Notes

A warm welcome to White Sox’ new infielder/outfielder, Sam Antonacci, who made his Major League debut on Wednesday! He batted fifth, started at second base, and singled in his first career at-bat.

You might remember the 23-year-old from the WBC as the only hitter from Team Italy you didn’t recognize, but were 100% certain was Italian. Samuel Joseph Antonacci batted .291 with 48 swipes between High-A and Double-A last season. He also has the Pope’s blessing.

The Shota Imanaga vs. Jesús Luzardo battle in the Cubs-Phillies tilt was supposed to must-watch television. Unfortunately, Phillies fans and those of us rostering Luzardo had to turn the tube off. Luzardo got bombarded for eight earned runs and 12 hits in 5.1 innings, ballooning his already-high ERA up to 7.94. Luzardo served up six earnies in his first start then bounced back in Coors for 6.2 scoreless innings and 11 strikeouts. Remember, last season, he gave up 20 runs in back-to-back starts, but allowed two runs or less in 50% (16-of-32) of his starts. This is just how he rolls…it’s a roller coaster! We can’t drop him, so we just have to keep riding.

Meanwhile, Imanaga twirled a masterful gem (6 IP – 3 H – 1 ER – 1 BB – 11 K). In his previous start, Imanaga hurled six shutout innings and punched out nine Pirates.

Just when history and trends tell us that Reds rookie Sal Stewart is due to cool off, he takes it up yet another notch! Stewart hit three-run dingers in consecutive at-bats on Wednesday — both off former Reds pitcher Tyler Mahle, who was making his first start in Cincinnati in another uniform.

The kid teammates call “Salert” leads all rookies with seven home runs.

Carlos Rodón and Gerrit Cole’s rehabs are going well and Cole is ready to begin a rehab assignment in the Minors.

Cole and Rodon have been eating well in during their rehab stints 👀🤌 pic.twitter.com/2FHonkvZWz

— Baseball Bros (@BaseballBros) April 15, 2026

No jokes to be made here since this must have been made by AI and BaseballBros definitely broke a bro code here.

Streaming Pitchers

Pitcher for Today: Steven Matz (LH, TB, 24% rostered on Yahoo!)

Matz didn’t fare well against his former team (the Cardinals) in his season opener (4 ER in 5 IP), but was sharp in the two starts that followed (11 IP – 4 H – 3 ER – 4 BB – 15 K). His Rays are road favorites and the White Sox have struggled against southpaws this season (28.7% strikeout rate, 82 wRC+).

Other Options: Landen Roupp (RH, SF, 21% Y!) — He has pitched well this season, but the Reds offense is scary, so this actually a scary recommendation.

Pitchers for Tomorrow: Lance McCullers Jr. (RH, HOU, 24% Y!) — Pitched a gem in his only home start (1 ER, 9 K in 7 IP) and he’s back home to face a Cardinals offense that can be dominated if Jordan Walker gets the day off.

Other Options: Zack Littell (RH, WSH, 7%) — He’s a plus control and location guy, but this is more so a bet against the Giants.

Trades are the lifeblood of fantasy baseball home leagues. The conversations around them help keep us connected and engaged, and make our league more fun.

Striking deals isn’t always easy. There are often hurt feelings around lopsided proposals, league-mates who value players differently, and that one guy who wants to veto everything. We can improve our fantasy squads with the waiver wire, but our collective hit rates are low. Quite often, those pickups backfire in the form of a hitter’s cold streak or a pitcher’s blowup, which inevitably leads to dropping the player. The one facet we have control of in home leagues is trading.

Managers are often emotionally tied to certain players – specifically, missed draft targets or players from their favorite baseball team. Also, we’re not all great at zooming out for a long-term view and not being stuck in the moment. Good analysis can be washed away by recency bias and small sample sizes. No one can force us to make a deal, so it’s the one element of the game we have some control over and can use proper value assessment and negotiation techniques to our advantage.

This column will recommend hitters and pitchers to attempt to sell-high or buy-low, and touch on trade strategies. No two leagues or two managers are the same. You know your league-mates best: what kind of deal they’ll scoff at, which player type they’re willing to deal or acquire, and how good their player and market valuation skills are. I’ll do my best to dig deep and present realistic opportunities.

Trading for Short Term Gains

Streaming hitters and pitchers based on an upcoming week’s set of matchups is a strategy that winning managers have utilized for decades — a two-start pitcher with increased velocity and strong recent outings, or a hot hitter moving up in his team’s batting order with Coors Field and Great American Ball Park on tap. Most fantasy baseball managers are aware that these types of players are ideal free agent or waiver pickups, especially if we have an easy drop. This is easier to execute in shallower (10- and 12-team leagues) because the likelihood of these targets being available is higher due to the larger free agent pool. It’s wise to plan ahead for the upcoming week, perhaps even for the week after that, if feasible.

What if I told you that you can optimize your roster for a longer-term outlook based on the next 3-4 weeks of the schedule? The following strategy can work via waivers/FAAB or trading, but it requires astute analysis and some extra digging. For this week, let’s frame it from the perspective of targeting hitters to buy low on. We can do this in the following manner:

1. Research each MLB team’s year-to-date pitching stats. I do this via FanGraphs’ TEAM stats.
2. Identify the outliers — the best and worst pitching rotations and bullpens
3. Review each MLB team’s set of matchups for the next 3-4 weeks
4. Match the outliers (5-6 best, 5-6 worst team pitching staffs) to the next 3-4 weeks of the schedule
5. If a team’s offense is scheduled to face several “bad” pitching staffs, hitters from those offenses are buy or add candidates, and vice versa

The May 2025 Chicago Cubs 

In early May last season, I ran through this process and identified that the Chicago Cubs had an extraordinarily advantageous set of matchups in the second half of the month. We had a small, yet reasonable sample size (first six weeks of the season) and their schedule really stood out like a sore thumb from May 16, 2025 – June 5, 2025: 3 vs. White Sox, 3 at Marlins, 3 at Reds, 3 vs. Rockies, 3 vs. Reds, 3 at Nationals.

Pitchers get better and worse, get promoted and demoted, and they get hurt. Things change, so this isn’t an exact science, but my assessment of a short-term matchup advantage for the hitters proved true. Over that three-week span, the Cubs went 14-4 and led the Majors with 112 runs scored (6.22 runs per game). The next closest were the Dodgers (102 runs) and the median for runs scored over that span was in the mid-70s. Core Cubs hitters were mostly rostered in all formats, but some were available in shallow-league waivers and there were certainly buying opportunities via trade. Five of their hitters batted .325 or higher over those three weeks (Suzuki .343, Tucker .339, Hoerner .338, Busch .333, Shaw .327) and Pete Crow-Armstrong went ham altogether (.293-17-5-23-8 in 80 PA). We may not be able to predict the future accurately, but with a basic understanding of the ‘buy-low/sell-high’ philosophy, perhaps we may have come to the conclusion that Crow-Armstrong could draw a huge (top-25 overall hitter) return in a 1-for-1 trade. Sure, PCA continued to produce at a high level for another month before his post-ASB crash-and-burn (.216-6 HR-8 SB after .265-25-27), but the idea of selling a hot, young player at his likely apex should have at least crossed our minds.

Every single hitter goes through waves and troughs throughout the season. In most cases, we ride these waves (leave them in the lineup), but sometimes we paddle through and sit it out (bench them). Once in a while, we have to trade in our reliable longboard for a newer, sleeker version that makes the ride smoother.

Upcoming Hitter Matchup Outliers

How can we confidently trust a three-week sample of pitching data to determine which team’s pitching will be good or bad over the next 3-4 weeks? A starter or reliever can have a bad outing at any time, and a team’s staff can over or underperform for a stretch, but certain things we can accept as true. Such as, the Mariners, Yankees, Rangers, Phillies, Dodgers and Braves have good pitching and are generally tough matchups in a series. Or that the Nationals, Angels, Rockies and Cardinals are among the league’s worst and are generally plus matchups for opposing hitters in a series. Then there are slight adjustments we can make based on ballpark: Coors Field (Rockies) or Sutter Health Park (Athletics) are good for hitters; T-Mobile Park (Mariners) and Oracle Park (Giants) are not.

We can then go to the FanGraphs team pitching stats, sort through and do some digging. Do the Mariners still look like an elite staff and bullpen? Fourth-best WAR, best ERA, top-five xFIP, lowest walk rate: check. Do Nationals pitchers still appear to be a strong group to target hitters against? See for yourself:

Feel free to sort this table by different categories, click on various Stat Presets (Advanced, Batted Ball, Statcast) to review other metrics, split between starters and relievers (under Positional Split), or review 2025’s data.

Are the Astros (6.50 ERA, 6.0 BB/9) going to have the worst staff and be a target to stream hitters against in the short term? Probably. They’re down Hunter Brown, Tatsuya Imai, Cristian Javier (which isn’t saying much) and Josh Hader. Mike Burrows and Bryan Abreu have been horrendous, and they’ve recently added Cody Bolton, Colton Gordon and J.P. France into the mix. It might be a prettier picture in August, but for the next 3-4 weeks, it’s fair to consider them a “bad” staff. If Garrett Crochet isn’t hurt and bounces back, as most of us expect, we likely won’t see Red Sox pitchers among the bottom-five in two months from now.

Most of the pitching staffs closer to average are a “push” — they don’t move the needle to help identify outlier-good or outlier-bad matchups. We’re looking for a string of extremes. Here are a couple:

Great Matchups, next 3.5 weeks (Friday, April, 17 – Sunday, May 10)

Chicago White Sox

• 3 at Athletics
• 3 at Diamondbacks, 3 vs. Nationals
• 3 vs. Angels, 3 at Padres
• 3 at Angels, 3 vs. Mariners

Except for the Padres and Mariners, facing ATH, ARZ, WSN, LAA (x2) is as good as it gets. Perhaps slow-starter Miguel Vargas (1 HR, 180 BA, .222 BABIP, 14.5% BB) is a worthwhile trade target who can be acquired for a cheap return. Or perhaps we’re on the precipice of another Munetaka Murakami power heater. Chase Meidroth and Edgar Quero are getting dropped in many deeper formats.

New York Mets

• 3 at Cubs
• 3 vs Twins, 3 vs. Rockies
• 3 vs. Nationals, 3 at Angels
• 3 at Rockies, 3 at Diamondbacks

If this six-series stretch after this weekend’s Cubs series doesn’t fix the Mets’ offense, probably nothing will (or at least until Juan Soto returns). As of today, every hitter except for Luis Robert Jr. and Francisco Alvarez is a potential buy-low candidate. You don’t have to be in the room to know your league-mate who drafted Francisco Lindor and Bo Bichette is panicking.

Not-Great Matchups, next 3.5 weeks

St. Louis Cardinals

• 3 at Astros
• 3 at Marlins, 3 vs. Mariners
• 4 at Pirates, 3 vs. Dodgers
• 3 vs. Brewers, 4 at Padres

In exactly three weeks, there will be oodles of “I told you Jordan Walker stinks” tweets. The reality is that Walker is not as good as he’s been these first three weeks and isn’t as bad as he might be the next three weeks. Walker and his teammates will be facing some of the toughest rotations and bullpens in baseball — if he somehow doesn’t cool off, it would be a surprise. We’re not selling high on Walker just because of the next three weeks of matchups, but we should absolutely test the trade waters to see what we can get in return because this is the ideal window. Two weeks ago or two weeks from now, a Walker-for-Lindor offer would be scoffed at. Right now, the other manager might take it.

So, that’s a snapshot of one of the strategies I’ve used over the years for trades and free agent acquisitions. We often assess too much in terms of rest-of-season or the upcoming week. Going the extra mile to review metrics and preview schedules for extreme matchup outliers in a 3-4 week window can prove fruitful and provides small victories that can help add up into a fantasy league title come October.

Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions of the weekend.

Fantasy baseball managers know that our game is the ultimate test of grit, grind, tenacity, and patience. Unlike fantasy football, where league titles can be won with minimal in-season activity, fantasy baseball leagues require incessant attention and activity. Particularly when it comes to free agent adds and drops. Real-life baseball managers are constantly adjusting batting orders, players are frequently optioned to and promoted from the Minor Leagues, and injuries occur almost daily. There’s no resting on our laurels. We must always stay vigilant with league news and notes and remain active on the waiver wire if we want to win our leagues.

Every week, I’ll dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.

Week 3 Overview

Cardinals outfielder Jordan Walker smashed five dingers last week and now leads the Majors in home runs (seven).

Oneil Cruz and Jakob Marsee each stole three bases in Week 3 games. Cruz swiped six total bags last week and enters Week 4 tied with Drake Baldwin atop the FanGraphs 12-team Player Rater ($41.7).

James Wood earned 12 hits and walked six times (only 4 Ks) in 28 plate appearances. He slashed .545/.655/1.091 last week. The Nationals are scheduled to play seven games in each of the next two weeks.

A few hitters with rough weeks: Mark Vientos (0-17), Michael Busch (1-20), Munetaka Murakami (1-20, 9 Ks), Adolis García (1-20, 8 Ks), and Josh Naylor (1-19), whose batting average is down to .102 and has no extra-base hits.

Last week’s saves leaders (three apiece) were Lucas Erceg and popular waiver add, Jakob Junis. Last week’s popular add, Bryan Baker, earned two saves but served up three earned runs in three innings.

Starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Ryan Feltner gave up the most earned runs (10 each), though Scherzer pitched 4.1 innings and Feltner 9.1. Sandy Alcantara was roughed up by the Tigers (10 H, 7 ER in 6 IP) after three consecutive gems.

Of the 31 pitchers who drew two starts last week, five earned wins in both of their starts: Joe Ryan, Germán Márquez, Taj Bradley, Michael Wacha and José Soriano.

As we did last week, let’s review the top trending acquisitions for Fantrax (waivers) and the NFBC 12-team OC (blind bid FAAB), but let’s add in Yahoo’s top adds as well. Soriano is the early fantasy MVP and the top overall player on the Player Rater ($51.5).

Roster % is the current percentage of leagues rostering the player; +/-  is the percentage of leagues the player was added in the previous week

Jorge Soler was added in 25% of Fantrax leagues. His roster percentage is only up to 68%, which seems low. A healthy Soler is a great source of power, though he’ll certainly do his part to drain our batting averages.

% Added is the percentage of leagues that added the player; AWB stands for average winning bid

Braves pitcher Didier Fuentes was awesome in spring training (13 IP, 1 ER, 18:1 K:BB) and has 15 strikeouts with five walks and one run allowed in two Triple-A starts. He drew the highest average winning bid among SPs in NFBC OCs ($52) though is still available in 3% of leagues. With Reynaldo Lopez’s suspension shortened and him slated to start on Tuesday, the Braves won’t need another starter until the following week. Those who acquired Fuentes hope that he joins the rotation then.

Relievers

Jakob Junis was the top target among relievers this weekend. He popped onto our radars on Monday when he earned a save. He did it again on Tuesday and once more Sunday, just a few hours ahead of Sunday evening’s FAAB deadline. Robert Garcia and Chris Martin were supposed to be the ninth-inning co-committee, but they played themselves out of future opportunities, at least for now. Righty Cole Winn and lefty Jacob Latz (converted reliever) have moved up in the hierarchy as late-inning setup men. Winn locked down his first career save on Wednesday and a hold on Sunday. Winn hasn’t allowed a run in eight appearances and sports a 14.8% swinging-strike rate. He has better stuff than Junis, but Junis has superb control (6% career walk rate) and is a dependable veteran who appears to be extending job security in this new role. He spent the bulk of his career as a starter. Over the last two seasons, as a reliever with the Giants and Guardians, Junis owns a 2.83 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 20.1% K and 4.9% BB.

Riley O’Brien (added in 17% of Fantrax leagues) has been stellar this season — 4 SV, 1 W, 1.41 ERA (2.05 xFIP), 8 K with no walks or earned runs allowed in eight appearances.

Joel Kuhnel is a new face in the fantasy sphere and is potentially in the mix for save chances with the Athletics. He closed out Sunday’s contest (1-0 over the Mets), his second save of the season. Mark Leiter Jr. (Tuesday, March 31) and Hogan Harris (Thursday, April 9) are the only other relievers to earn saves for the A’s so far. Kuhnel is 31 years old and a big guy (6’5”, 290) who has one full season in the Majors (6.36 ERA in 58 IP with the Reds in 2022), but has otherwise toiled in the Minors for different organizations. Kuhnel and Harris (the bullpen’s only lefty) will likely share save opps in the short term. Justin Sterner is their most consistent reliever since 2025 (his rookie season) and could get into the mix of save chances soon. Kuhnel has more fantasy value in 15-team leagues and can be ignored in 10/12-teamers for now, especially with the A’s playing at home all week.

Starting Pitchers

Jeffrey Springs is almost three years removed from his Tommy John surgery. A converted starter, Springs had a dominant 2022 season (2.46 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 26%K, 5.6% BB in 135.1 IP) before his 2023 season ended abruptly. He joined the A’s in 2025 and managed a 4.11 ERA (4.60 SIERA) in 171 innings, though his strikeout rate dipped under 20% for the first time. His arsenal isn’t overpowering, but his changeup is top-notch and he has always exhibited above-average control. Springs has pitched well through three starts (1.47, 0.76) though it won’t be all sunshine and rainbows this season. Springs has been lucky (.170 BABIP, 3.91 xFIP, 3.97 SIERA) and negative regression will undoubtedly rear its ugly head — specifically, in the 100+ degree Sacramento weather this summer. Springs hasn’t allowed a home run yet this season (1.47 HR/9 last season). He is slated to make his second and third home starts of the season this week, against the Rangers and White Sox. Springs could be a mainstay on 12-team rosters and maintain a sub-4.00 ERA for the season.

Joey Cantillo’s breakout doesn’t seem to be appreciated by the Yahoo community (only 38% rostered). The crafty lefty with the occasional case of the location yips has 20 strikeouts and seven walks through his first three starts (14.2 IP). His cutter and changeup are plus offerings. I don’t foresee Cantillo having issues maintaining his rotation spot with the Guardians, but I can’t say the same about a sub-10% walk rate.

Giants starter Landen Roupp is off to a nice start, and perhaps even a bit unlucky (.304 BABIP, 3.24 ERA vs. 2.67 xFIP, 2.95 SIERA). It’s unlikely that Roupp will end the season with an ERA better than 3.50, but it’s certainly possible. Roupp often issued too many free passes in his starts last season, so it’s nice to see his walk rate down (from 9.5% to 7.2%), albeit just three starts. He will likely have his hands full in the next two weeks. He is expected to face the Reds in Great American Ball Park on Wednesday and is lined up in the following week to face the Dodgers, at home.

Javier Assad may be one-and-done after this start in Philadelphia if Matthew Boyd remains on track to return this weekend.

Hitters

Nasim Nuñez is all speed and nothing else. Make sure you only add him on squads where you don’t already have Chandler Simpson or José Caballero.

Angel Martínez had an incredible week — 13-42, 7 R, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 4 SB, .310/.383/.452. He mostly starts and bats first or second against left-handed pitchers, but earned a start against a righty on Friday. Not sure we can call him an everyday player yet, so let’s see if he earns some starts against righties this week. When we added Martínez over the weekend, the Guardians were slated to face up 4 LHPs. That has since changed with the Orioles optioning lefty starter Cade Povich in favor of ol’ gascan righty, Dean Kremer. The Guardians may only square off against two lefty starters now.

Diamondbacks rookie Jose Fernandez has started six straight games, at first base, third base, and designated hitter. He has earned playing time with somewhat steady production and because of injuries to Pavin Smith and Carlos Santana. By the way, Fernandez was seven years old when Santana made him Major League debut.

Drop of the Week

It may be time to move on from Astros interim closer Bryan Abreu. Abreu did not allow a run in his appearance on Sunday, the first time in seven tries. His velocity drop is worrisome, lefty Bryan King has been exceptional, and Josh Hader may be back before the end of the month.

“New uni, who’s this?”

On the Agenda: 

1. Closer Chaos
2. Quick Hits
3. Various News and Notes
4. Streaming Pitchers

Closer Chaos

Another episode of “Who’s Save Is It Anyway” featuring the Minnesota Twins bullpen, which was featured in Thursday’s Roto Riteup. This time it was Eric Orze, a 28-year-old righty with one season of Major League experience. This was actually Orze’s fourth career save. He earned three with the Tampa Bay Rays in his rookie year. This is a bullpen to stay away from, even in the deepest of formats. Want more proof?

In the year 2026, the Twins managed to put together a bullpen where nobody throws over 94. Feels impossible. pic.twitter.com/SEBcNSrLjX

— Kyle Weinmeyer (@Kyleweinmeyer) April 9, 2026

Another ugly bullpen can be found over on the west coast. Thursday’s save was brought to you by Hogan Harris, the Athletics top southpaw. You might remember Harris from his professional debut:

Hogan Harris is the first pitcher to allow 5+ walks and 5+ runs while pitching less than an inning in his MLB debut since June 10, 1944, when the Reds' Joe Nuxhall did so while becoming the youngest player to appear in an MLB game (15 years, 316 days).

— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) April 15, 2023

Harris and Justin Sterner were the only late-round A’s bullpen fliers who NFBC Main Event managers drafted, though both have since been dropped by most of those teams. They remain the two best options for ninth-inning work and I foresee Sterner pulling away as the primary guy by May. Sterner doesn’t throw hard (93-94 mph fastball), but he has the best arsenal in that bullpen. The Stuff+ model graded his slider out at 114 last season.

Quick Hits

Colorado Rockies slugger Hunter Goodman left Thursday’s tilt in the sixth inning after getting hit in the hand by a Randy Vásquez fastball. His finger was bleeding, but hopefully not broken. We will find out today.

Some fantasy squad reinforcements are on the way today! Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki should be activated from the IL today and the Yankees will promote Luis Gil to start in Tampa against the Rays. Gil should then make his second start of the season against the Angels next week.

Various News and Notes

What a fabulous outing by White Sox pitcher Anthony Kay on Thursday!

Kay mowed down six Royals hitters, throwing 100 pitches for 5.2 scoreless innings. It was his first win the Majors since 2021. Kay spent the last two seasons in the NPB in Japan. He posted impressive ratios (1.74 ERA, 0.98) in 24 starts for the Yokohama DeNA Baystars last season.

As the kids and obnoxious engagement farmers on Twitter would say, Ryan Weathers is “back”! After two rough starts to open the season, he dominated the A’s on Thursday — 8 IP – 7 H – 1 ER – 0 BB – 7 K. The other starter in that game was lefty Jeffrey Springs. He had a no-hitter going until the seventh inning when Ben Rice delivered a single to right field. This was Springs’ second consecutive quality start, as he dominated the Astros with seven strikeouts and just one run allowed last Friday. Springs lines up for two home starts next week, against the Rangers and White Sox.

Sal Stewart is a rookie on a mission. He swatted his fourth dinger of the season off Marlins righty, Max Meyer.

Streaming Pitchers

Pitcher for Today: Chad Patrick, Milwaukee Brewers (20% on Yahoo)

Listen, vanilla is a good flavor! Patrick doesn’t have the hottest stuff, nor is he a fireballer, but he often gets the job done. He should handle business at home on Friday against the Nationals where the Brewers should be hefty favorites.

Other Options: Bryce Elder, Atlanta Braves (48%)

If you give me a choice between 1) 2026 Elder Breakout and 2) 2026 Elder Inevitable Implosion, I’ll take the latter. Though that time is not yet here. It’ll happen when we’ve fully bought into his transformation, then it’s BOOM. This is a streamable home start against a vanilla Guardians offense (it really is a good flavor).

Pitcher for Tomorrow: Eric Lauer 라우어, Toronto Blue Jays (27%)

Lauer didn’t pitch well last weekend, but he had an excuse — he was sick and not fully recovered. This outing should be a smoother one as he faces a Twins offense that already has 210 plate appearances against lefties and have struggled against them (.082 ISO, 14.3% K).

Other Options: None

Saturday’s slate is littered with team aces taking their turns in the rotation, so there aren’t many sub-50% rostered streamers, and none worth recommending.