“Microphone Check 1,2, what is this?”

Well, it’s not a five foot assassin, but instead it’s my first run at a tiered ranking of the first baseman. Also a week late in my tribute; sorry about that. I appreciate any and all feedback, but do keep in mind these are subjective and based on a predicative nature. Just because I have somebody tiered lower than you do doesn’t mean you shouldn’t go with what you think is best. Naturally. Also, players with a star next to their name played less than 20 games at first base last season, so they may or may not be eligible depending on your format, and they may or may not receive eligibility during the season.

For the astute and avid Rotograph readers, you will notice these rankings differ from the staff rankings we did earlier in March. I hadn’t done as much research for those at the time, so these are more in line with what I think at this moment. Which may change in ten minutes. Alas, the fun of rankings.

In the spirit of subjectivity and my love for music, I have created tiers based on my personal favorite jazz styles. In no way am I saying my top tier is the best style of jazz; just my personal favorite. In a perfect world, we could all somehow discuss jazz and baseball together. Here is my first attempt at doing so. Keep it real!

Read the rest of this entry »

Well, here goes it. My first bold predictions list while working at RotoGraphs. This proved to be quite a difficult exercise because a lot of these lists have already been published, and rather than just make a copy combining all of our authors, I wanted to be somewhat original. I guess there is something to the adage that great minds think alike, as some players I mention, have already been mentioned by our wonderful staff. Eno Sarris had mentioned batting .300 last season, so that sounds like a lofty, though attainable, goal for myself. Without further adieu, here are my 10 bold fantasy predictions for the upcoming season.

1.) Chris Carter will break 100 RBI’s.
I am a believer in Carter’s September/October where he slashed .333/.400/.822. He walked less during those months, but he also struck out less. I don’t think he will hit for those numbers for a full season, but I also don’t think he will struggle for a significant part of the season as he did last season. Given regular playing time in Miller Park, the home runs will come. I also like the RBI opportunities with Jonathan Lucroy and Ryan Braun batting immediately in front of him.

2.) Joc Pederson will be a top 3 CF according to WAR
It’s easy to forget Pederson’s first half after his woeful second half. If Pederson mirrored his first half, he would’ve finished with 40 home runs and had been the clear Rookie of the Year Award winner. Pederson, instead, hit a skid that lasted the rest of the season. Still, his walk rate was an excellent 15%. He will never hit for a high average with his low contact rate, but will still provide excellent value with his walks and if his power comes back, which is not far-fetched at all given his age. Star players hit are able to overcome roadblocks and Pederson happened to have an extended one. A full-season of maturing, and a new manager with a different approach could do wonders for this 24 year old.

3.) Wilmer Flores will have over 550 PA’s
With Asdrubral Cabrera potentially starting the season on the DL, David Wright needing more rest than most regulars, and Neil Walker struggling against lefties, there are a few scenarios where Flores receives extended playing time in the infield. With the lack of middle infielders available, Flores could be a nice sneak pick who hit 16 HR’s in under 500 AB’s. The Mets have an aging left side of the infield that will need their rest, and Flores is the clear choice to get those reps, especially with Ruben Tejada recently released. Given a substantial amount of at-bats, 20 home runs is not out of the question.

4.) Johnny Cueto will post an ERA higher than 4
I know, he changed leagues and had a new catcher, and the list goes on why Cueto didn’t pitch as well in August, September, and October. (Well, outside of Game 2 of the World Series). I’m concerned with the age and the drop in strikeouts in his second half. The ballpark and the move back to the NL should help, but I am not convinced he has the stuff anymore to bounce back to his pre-Royals numbers.

5.) Lucas Duda will be a top 5 fantasy 1B
The low batting average, lack of RBI’s, and the strength of 1B fantasy talent has kept Duda out of the top five so far in his career. Duda should have the best line-up he’s ever had surrounding him, meaning more RBI opportunities, and even more opportunities to be driven in. He’s averaged slightly over 28 home runs over the past two seasons, and if he’s able to stay healthy and plays a full season, breaking 30 homers is certainly within the realm of possibility. Stories are breaking that have Duda taking less practice swings before games, which some contribute to his past injuries. Breaking 30 home runs and 100 RBI’s will place Duda in some top tier company at first base.

6.) Marcus Semien will be a 20/20 guy this year.
At 24 years old, Semien showed some positive signs, particularly his 148 ISO, at least for a young SS. His minor league numbers show that a 20/20 season is not too far fetched. Across two levels in 2014 (AAA and MLB) Semien combined for 21 home runs. Across two levels in 2013 (AA and AAA) Semien stole 24 bases. I am basing this prediction mostly on his maturation process, which is not a full-proof way to make predictions. Still, this a player who has the skills to hit these goals and has shown in the past it is attainable if he continues to improve at the major league level.

7.) Jake McGee will have 40 saves.
So, yeah, I put a Colorado pitcher on my list. I’ve always been a fan of McGee’s numbers, and his fastball-only approach makes him an ideal fit in Colorado, if that really exists. Jason Motte is a former closer, so he can make a push, but I think McGee’s past stability and how he potentially fits in Colorado makes him a nice 40 save candidate.

8.) Justin Verlander will win the AL Cy Young
The AL has some strong Cy Young candidates, and health will always be a question for Verlander, but I see an excellent season coming from the Tigers ace. His second half was vintage Verlander in terms of ERA and WHIP. His strikeout rate was not where it once was, but he showed stronger control and command. The Tigers line-up and rebuilt bullpen should also help his win total, which we all know doesn’t mean everything in real baseball, but in terms of Cy Young voting carries significant weight.

9.) George Springer will go 30/30
Springer stole 34 bags in the minors in 2013, but surprisingly has yet to hit 30 homers in any level. That’s not necessarily because he lacks the ability, but mainly because he has trouble staying healthy. If Springer stays healthy, the sky’s the limit, but that has been a big if. He had a semi-Jekyll and Hyde season last year where he started the year off with more power, walks, and less contact, then dropped his walk rate and power, but significantly improved his contact rate. Putting those all together (or some combination of those improvements) can go a long way towards this prediction.

10.) Trea Turner will lead the Nationals in stolen bases.
Playing time and Ben Revere will be the main deterrents for this prediction. Even if Turner is not starting to begin the year, I think he will find playing time with Danny Espinoza being his main competition at short, and Daniel Murphy potentially getting time at first base if Ryan Zimmerman gets hurt. I also see Turner as a late inning replacement in close games in order to steal a bag to put crucial runs in scoring positions. Dusty Baker likes to run and this Spring Training has shown nothing different.

For the upcoming season, I will be predominantly covering first baseman here on Rotographs. First base is traditionally thought of as a super deep position. After looking more closely, beyond the top 10 there are some solid first basemen, but nothing to build your team around. What I aim to explore today are those 1B who you may need to look at later on in the draft, but can help you in one of the traditional 5 roto categories (make that four, stolen base totals were too low to have a significant impact). I will be using Steamer as a guide, and then identifying a few deeper picks who may help you in potential deficiencies.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, I mainly focused on first round picks and where the most players are being drafted from, as well as some positional distribution. I had mentioned focusing on individual MLB teams and how they have drafted in this concluding article. To start, however, is a map of where first round picks are coming from and what value they have had. This map does not represent the hometowns of first round picks. The map shows the location of a school where a player came from.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, I introduced some data on the MLB Amateur draft, and focused on some trends throughout the entire draft. I looked at the value of different rounds and compared the value of different years as well. For this week, I am going to focus on players drafted in the first round using draft data from Baseball Reference. I chose to isolate the first round since that’s where we tend to see the most successful players on average and will also help eliminate most of the players who were drafted twice, even though there will still be some players who were drafted twice in the first round. This data also includes players who were drafted, but never made it to the majors. Without further ado, let’s dive right in.

Read the rest of this entry »

The popularity of amateur drafts in sports has been rising for at least the last decade or so. Just take the NFL draft that used to be a Saturday and Sunday event that now begins primetime Thursday, where people have draft parties and events based around the NFL draft. Think about that for a moment. No sport is being played and no athletes are competing live. People are spending countless hours preparing for an event where players are just being selected. During this time, everybody is a college football and draft expert and lead on to knowing more than the so-called “experts.”

The MLB amateur draft is not quite at that level yet, but the fact that it is now televised is interesting in terms of how quickly the popularity of the MLB draft is, or at least how popular major league baseball wants to make it. I’m fascinated how much stock people take in the draft considering most people have never really watched these players in high school or college, so the general public really has no clue who these guys are, unlike college football where a lot of these players were watched by a large audience every Saturday, whether it was active or passive watching.

This brought up some curiosity on my part. Thanks to Jeff Zimmerman, he did a tremendous job of providing me all the data I needed to start exploring my curiosity into the MLB draft using a great data visualization tool, Tableau Public. I didn’t have an exact idea about what I wanted to learn. I just wanted to explore the MLB draft from the beginnings to now. I had no preconceived notions, I just wanted to see if there were any trends I could find/or not find based on the data. So I plugged the data in and began looking around. I found some things that make sense, some things that don’t, some trends that are obvious, and some that really don’t exist.

Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

For the New York Mets, there are no outright starter roles up for grabs. There are, however, potential platoon roles given the amount of versatility some of their players have. August Fagerstrom looked at the most promising platoons here, and the Mets had two of the top 5 “potential” platoons, meaning if the Mets were to platoon, they have some valuable options at second base and in the outfield. Will there be a straight platoon? We’re not sure just yet, but the Mets have options, which is something the front office wanted to improve upon this off-season.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Rays have two potential positional battles. One is more of a classic debate, whereas the other battle is a little more complex as it is not Player A vs. Player B for the same position. At catcher, the Rays will need to decide how much they value defense over offense with Curt Casali and Hank Conger slated to be behind the dish. Things are a little more complex with the addition of Corey Dickerson, who will certainly play right field with a righty on the mound. What will the Rays do when a lefty starts?

Read the rest of this entry »

The Detroit Tigers were one of the big surprises last season finishing last in the AL Central. Coming into this week, left field was one of the competitions we were going to write about for the Tigers. Then the Tigers did what the Tigers do and signed a big named free agent to cover that hole in Justin Upton. As you could predict, Tiger’s management made some noise this off-season to fill some of their holes sufficiently, including the Upton signing and also the Jordan Zimmerman signing. They also acquired Cameron Maybin and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, which will impact the playing time for their respective positions.

Read the rest of this entry »

With the departure of Francisco Rodriguez, the Milwaukee closer role is Will Smith’s to lose. Smith took big steps last season improving his K%, BB%, ERA (or FIP, if that’s more your cup of tea), HR/9, and K:BB%. Smith is trending in the right direction with all of these metrics.

The main reason it would seem that Smith has improved so well is his pitch selection. Smith started using his fastball less, particularly his 2-seamer, and increased the usage of his slider, which is by far his most effective pitch. Outside of 2012, his wSL has been his most positive pitch, combining for 16.1 runs above average for the past three years. His fastball, on the other hand, has graded out at negative 21.4 over the past four years. Could he become the next Andrew Miller?

Read the rest of this entry »