Rays Playing Time Battles: Hitters
The Rays have two potential positional battles. One is more of a classic debate, whereas the other battle is a little more complex as it is not Player A vs. Player B for the same position. At catcher, the Rays will need to decide how much they value defense over offense with Curt Casali and Hank Conger slated to be behind the dish. Things are a little more complex with the addition of Corey Dickerson, who will certainly play right field with a righty on the mound. What will the Rays do when a lefty starts?
Catcher
In a small sample size (113 PA), Casali raked. By setting the qualified minimum PA to to 100, Casali ranked first amongst catchers in wRC+ with 144. He made the most of those plate appearances with an isolated power of .356. Casali has shown glimpses of being a strong hitter in the minors. The one problem that seems to come up consistently is sample size. The most plate appearances Casali has had in one league was in A ball with the Tigers in 2012 with 206, where he did well triple-slashing .288/.402/.500. Tigers moved him to High-A and he struggled a little. The next year he started in High-A with the Rays, did well, and then crushed in 142 PA’s in Double-A. He started the next season in Double-A, showed great discipline, then struggled in his promotion to Triple-A. In 2015, struggled in Triple-A and then raked in the pros.
Why the long narrative of his minor league career? Simply because I do not know what to make of Casali as a hitter. There are signs that he could be a solid major league hitter, and then there are other data points that are concerning. Very much reminds me of the Seinfeld episode where Jerry dates a girl who looks pretty or ugly depending on the lighting. It would help to see Casali in one light for an extended period in order to gauge what type of hitter he can become.
Casali will more than likely be the starter even if he doesn’t hit because he can throw to second. That may seem like a very low level comment, but when your competition is Hank Conger who threw out a whopping 1 out of 43 runners attempting to steal, you have to be real bad to lose out from a defensive perspective. Casali threw out 7 of 26, so he for sure edges Conger.
The only reason to really mention Conger as potential playing time thief is that he mashed righties last year in slightly over 100 PA’s. For his career, he hits righties better, but last year he really amped it up matching Casali’s total wRC+ of 144. If Casali struggles offensively and the lighting is off, Conger could start getting some time against righties if the Rays need some late line-up pop. Wouldn’t count on it from the start, but worth monitoring.
Outfield/First Base
Kevin Kiermaier and Desmond Jennings are staples in the outfield. In right field or at first base, a platoon is in order. Steve Pearce (with the exception of last season) typically rakes against lefties. James Loney and Corey Dickerson both hit righties well, but struggle against lefties. The issue is who do you bench for Pearce when a lefty is on the hill?
Dickerson’s struggles could be a sample size issue, since he has only faced a lefty less than 200 times in his pro career. He is only twenty-six, so there is some hope he could break out and potentially become average. Loney is older and has showed throughout his career he struggles against lefties.
Problem solved, right? Well, not quite. Defense becomes the issue. Dickerson is not the greatest outfielder, and Pearce has fluctuated statistically in his career. Loney is a solid defensive first baseman, so from a defensive standpoint, it seems the Rays will platoon in RF before 1B. As if leaving Coors Field wasn’t enough to hurt Dickerson’s value, but a platoon would also significantly impact it as well. At least he would be on the better side of the platoon, still garnering a significant amount of at-bats if he can stay healthy.
Is Souza going to the minors, the bench, or will he become trade bait. He would look nice in the Angel’s outfield.
Same question- what’s the deal with Souza? Did I miss something?
I understand that it is a bit difficult to pencil guys in this early but this article seems to leave more questions then before I started reading it.
1) as mentioned above, what up with Souza?
2) no mention of Rene Rivera behind the dish?
3) SS seems to be a straight up platoon with no mention in the article (Miller vs. RHP and Timmy vs. LHP)
4) What about LoMO?
5) Calling Jennings a stable seems to be a reach with the OF options,(Souza, Pearce, Miller, Kiermaier, Desmond, LoMo, Mahtook, guyer, Franklin and Dickerson)
Rays will probably trade one of Guyer or Jennings, with Souza getting a lot of playing time. Lomo, Loney, Pearce, and Dickerson will probably share time at DH/RF/1B, could actually see Loney just getting cut after spring training. Casali will probably start in Durham, because he still has options.
I get that Loney is solid defensively, but man its gotta be tough to keep sending him up to the plate.
Loney has to take the playing time hit.
Let’s hope so.
James Loney’s 2015:
AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
.280 .322 .357 .294 88
2016 MLB 1B Stats:
AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
.259 .336 .444 .336 113
I was on board with you til I got to that Jennings part. Depending on how you look at it, they either traded Wil Myers for Souza, or Trea Turner and Joe Ross for Souza. Souza is the starting RF, no if’s, and’s or but’s. Their closer was just traded for Dickerson, so Dickerson is at minimum the long side of a platoon.
Jennings or Guyer are gone. Jennings is more expensive than Guyer, so I’m guessing Jennings is gone.
The depth charts I looked at did not have Souza starting, and one did not even have him on the major league roster. Admittedly, I should’ve focused on his playing time with Jennings as well. If Jennings stays on the team, I see him getting more playing time because of his defense, and the Rays appear to value Jennings better defense over what Souza did offensively last year, which was better, but not going to make a team sacrifice themselves defensively.
Souza also did not show any splits to indicate the Rays would get a platoon advantage if they did a Loney/Pearce and Dickerson/Souza platoon.
If Souza can cut his K’s in his sophomore year, he could easily be a 3-4 win RF. 110 games make it appear as if he was a part timer, but 2 trips to the DL can do that. I don’t have a ton of faith in Souza, but I suspect the Rays will give him every opportunity to succeed. It’s too early to assume he will be a platoon player.
Thanks for the article though.
Is it just assumed Mike Mahtook starts in Triple-A?
Fwiw, the official Rays’ depth chart now has Dickerson starting in LF and Souza starting in RF with Jennings on the bench. Not sure what depth charts you were looking at, but this seems like a pretty glaring oversight to me.
I’ll be really surprised if Dickerson isn’t in the lineup every day as either an OF or DH. He and Longoria are the Rays two best bats and it’s a fairly sizable drop off to whomever is 3rd best. I would also think the Rays will want to let Dickerson get some consistent experience against lefties because his minor league career splits say he can hit them extremely well (.965 vs LH / .969 vs RH).
He and Longo have to be inked in as the 3 and 4 hole guys barring injuries, no?
I agree with a lot of this, but the Rays OF is stacked with above average talent. Jennings is a 3 WAR player when healthy. Guyer put up 2 WAR in 300 PA in 2014, and 2.4 WAR in 400 PA last year. I think what Souza did last year is kind of his floor, and if he cuts his K rate, he can be a well above average regular. I don’t think the Rays will give Dickerson a long leash against LHP with Guyer, Jennings, Shaffer, and Mahtook all capable of hitting righties above average, and contributing better defensively.
Where do you find minor league splits? Are those premium stats?
The Rays didn’t trade for McGee for Dickerson for him to platoon. They’ve made public statements on how they value his power and plan on hitting him in the middle of the lineup. They won’t have happy campers if they don’t trade one of Loney, Jennings or Guyer. And don’t understand why nothing was said about Souza.
correction…..meant to say traded McGee for Dickerson.
There was a lot of talk about how the Rockies could have just moved Dickerson to first… seems like it would make pretty good sense for the Rays to do the same thing.
As I understand it, Dickerson’s poor defensive rating is partially due to a very weak arm. If that is so, it seems far more likely the Rays will use him in LF not RF. Souza is likely the every day right fielder with Dickerson playing every day in LF and DH. My guess is Jennings or Guyer and Loney will be traded or otherwise let go and Pearce will back up Morrison at 1B and Dickerson in LF. Morrison (1B), Dickerson (LF) and Pearce (DH) vs righties and Pearce (1B), Jennings or Guyer or Mahtook (LF) and Dickerson (DH) vs. lefties.
For what it’s worth, tampabay.rays.mlb.com has Souza as the starting RF and Dickerson starting in LF. Jennings, Mahtook, and Guyer are listed as backup LF and CF. Dickerson is also listed as a backup DH to Morrison.
Depth charts at this time of the year are worth virtually nothing
I remember listening to a radio broadcast of a Rays game near the end of last season. The broadcaster was saying he’d met with Rays brass, and the outfield for this game was the one the team was hoping would be the regular outfield next year. In the game, the Rays were starting Souza, Keirmeier, and Mahtook in the in outfield.
So I don’t think Desmond Jennings is long for that team. Ironically, he used to be called “the next Carl Crawford” and unfortunately he probably still is.
Brandon Guyer is 30 has around one full season’s worth of mediocre plate appearances. Not inspiring.
I remember listening to a radio broadcast of a Rays game near the end of last season. The broadcaster was saying he’d met with Rays brass, and the outfield for this game was the one the team was hoping would be the regular outfield next year. In the game, the Rays were starting Souza, Keirmeier, and Mahtook in the in outfield. So I don’t think Desmond Jennings is long for that team. Ironically, he used to be called “the next Carl Crawford” and unfortunately he probably still is. Brandon Guyer is 30 has around one full season’s worth of mediocre plate appearances. Not inspiring.
Where’s Shaffer!?
Yeah, Guyer’s got to be in there too, in addition to Souza. Guyer had a sneaky good year last year.