Author: Paul Sporer | Page 80 | RotoGraphs Fantasy Baseball

Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – January 25th, 2023

January 25, 2023

The transcript is now available!

3:00	Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!

3:00	Nate: Hey Paul, quick breakdown of the Mondesi deal? Thanks!

3:01	Paul Sporer: He is still SUUUUCH an injury risk that it’s hard to get too excited, but just him being in the news will probably raise his price. I’m OK taking the shot anything past pick-200 as he can make an impact in as few as 75 games, but don’t put all your SB eggs in his basket!

3:01	ScottTINSTAAPP: Vegas Main Event Saturday is officially 2 months away, can’t wait!

3:01	Paul Sporer: I am so excited already!!!

3:01	Oil Can Baggins: Hey Paul, if you had any hints for market manipulation on OOTP in advance of your new set dropping on Thursday – could you very cryptically hint at it? If I should load up on historical Tigers, blink twice.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1130 – 2023 OF Rankings Preview Top 30

by Paul Sporer

January 24, 2023

1/24/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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@sporer – Host
@justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

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OF RANKINGS 1-30

Return of Ronald Acuña Jr.’s power
Julio Rodríguez’s 2H SB slowdown
Aaron Judge as the 1.1 pick
Moving Kyle Tucker up the batting order
Juan Soto’s success in SD
Injury concerns for Yordan Alvarez
Mookie Betts remains undervalued
Mike Trout & baked in missed time
Is Michael Harris II overpriced?

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1128 – 2023 SS Rankings Preview #1

by Paul Sporer

January 20, 2023

1/20/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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@sporer – Host
@justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

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SS RANKINGS

Trea Turner’s return to the NL East
Bo Bichette’s speed drop-off
The Fernando Tatis Jr. premium
The run-scoring potential for Francisco Lindor
It’ll be regression not the shift for Corey Seager’s AVG
The volatility of Oneil Cruz
New rules and Tommy Edman’s SBs
Dansby Swanson in Chicago
Petco’s impact on Xander Bogaerts
The arrival of Wander Franco

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Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – January 19th, 2023

by Paul Sporer

January 19, 2023

A day late, but hopefully not a dollar short!

Check out the transcript:

1:34	Paul Sporer: I inexplicably forgot yesterday was Wednesday… no joke. I’m an old idiot. Anyway, didn’t want miss this week so let’s rock!

1:34	Guest: hey, paul! in an obp league with slg added. trying to choose between keeping nootbaar at $5 and jorge polanco at $5. thoughts?

1:38	Paul Sporer: I lean toward Noot as I have the pair pretty close, but Noot having more upside. My HR/SB/AVG for them are close while Noot gets a healthy OBP boost and then close again on SLG. We have Noot batting 6th rn, but if he moves back up, then his R/RBI can exceed Polanco for sure

1:38	Larry: What’s your confidence level in Acuna returning to the stud he was before the knee injury?

1:40

Paul Sporer: Pretty high. He’s my #1 overall by projection, barely over Judge and J-Ram (all of whom I can take at 1.1) and I think a year removed from the injury should help Acuña get back some pop while hopefully continuing to run. 40/40 is very much in play, though obviously that’s the upside, not the projection/expectation

1:40	Guest: Jordan Walker for Marcelo Mayer and Henry Davis. Who says no?

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Max Muncy Got His Groove Back

by Paul Sporer

January 19, 2023

In the final game of the 2021 regular season, Max Muncy injured his left elbow after a collision with Jace Peterson as Muncy tried to catch a throw while Peterson ran through first base. It cost Muncy all of the 2021 postseason and in November of 2021, we learned that Muncy’s injury was indeed the torn UCL that many feared it was when it happened. In January of 2022, we learned he wouldn’t need surgery, but there were concerns about how it might impact at least the start of his 2022 season.

While he made it through spring and was ready for Opening Day, it was clear early on that the elbow was still bothering him. He hit a brutal .136/.313/.273 in 83 April plate appearances and while it was reasonable to believe the .149 BABIP would regress back toward his career .256 mark, there was still trouble brewing. It wouldn’t get much better in the following months with a .595 OPS in May, .675 in June, and .597 in July, all with sub-.200 AVGs and just 9 HR in his 339 PA. With just a .150/.327/.263 line through May 25th, Muncy hit the IL. He didn’t want to blame his struggles on the elbow, but I mean… c’mon, it was the elbow. He did eventually acknowledge that he rushed back from the injury and should’ve taken some time.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1127 – 2023 3B Rankings Preview #1

by Paul Sporer

January 16, 2023

1/16/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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@sporer – Host
@justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

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3B RANKINGS

José Ramírez as the 1.1
Bobby Witt Jr.’s poor plate skills & OBP
1st round status of Manny Machado
Fringe 1st rounders: Rafael Devers or Austin Riley
The 3B Lifejacket: Nolan Arenado
Paul thinks Ke’Bryan Hayes has some pwr upside

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1125 – 2023 2B Rankings Preview #1

by Paul Sporer

January 13, 2023

1/13/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

@sporer – Host
@justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

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Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

2B RANKINGS

Marcus Semien’s home/road split
Jose Altuve as a target
Justin isn’t sold on Jazz Chisholm Jr.
The Ozzie Albies discount
Andrés Giménez’s power
Thairo Estrada breakout follow-up

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Paul Sporer’s 2023 Shortstop Rankings

by Paul Sporer

January 12, 2023

2023 Shortstop Ranks

RK	NAME	TEAM	LG	POS
1	Trea Turner	PHI	NL	SS
2	Bo Bichette	TOR	AL	SS
3	Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	NL	SS/OF
4	Bobby Witt Jr.	KC	AL	3B/SS
5	Francisco Lindor	NYM	NL	SS
6	Corey Seager	TEX	AL	SS
7	Wander Franco	TB	AL	SS
8	Tommy Edman	STL	NL	2B/SS
9	Willy Adames	MIL	NL	SS
10	Amed Rosario	CLE	AL	SS
11	Tim Anderson	CHW	AL	SS
12	Dansby Swanson	CHC	NL	SS
13	Oneil Cruz	PIT	NL	SS
14	Carlos Correa	MIN	AL	SS
15	Xander Bogaerts	SDP	NL	SS
16	Nico Hoerner	CHC	NL	SS
17	Jeremy Peña	HOU	AL	SS
18	Javier Báez	DET	AL	SS
19	Adalberto Mondesi	KC	AL	SS
20	Ha-Seong Kim 김하성	SD	NL	3B/SS
21	CJ Abrams	WAS	NL	SS
22	Luis Urías	MIL	NL	2B/3B/SS
23	Jorge Mateo	BAL	AL	SS
24	Bryson Stott	PHI	NL	2B/SS
25	Joey Wendle	MIA	NL	2B/3B/SS
26	Thairo Estrada	SF	NL	2B/SS
27	Luis Garcia	WAS	NL	2B/SS
28	Elvis Andrus	FA		SS
29	Brice Turang	MIL	NL	SS
30	Anthony Volpe	NYY	AL	SS
31	Oswald Peraza	NYY	AL	SS
32	J.P. Crawford	SEA	AL	SS
33	Ezequiel Tovar	COL	NL	SS
34	Kevin Newman	PIT	NL	SS
35	Kyle Farmer	MIN	AL	SS
36	Brandon Crawford	SF	NL	SS
37	Royce Lewis	MIN	AL	SS
38	Nicky Lopez	KC	AL	2B/3B/SS
39	Nick Allen	OAK	AL	2B/SS
40	Miguel Rojas	LAD	NL	SS
41	Mauricio Dubón	HOU	AL	SS/OF
42	José Iglesias	COL	NL	SS
43	Diego Castillo	ARI	NL	2B/SS/OF
44	David Fletcher	LAA	AL	2B/SS
45	Nick Ahmed	ARI	NL	SS
46	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	NYY	AL	SS
47	Edmundo Sosa	PHI	NL	2B/SS
48	Elly De La Cruz	CIN	NL	SS
49	Dylan Moore	SEA	AL	SS/OF
50	Jordan Westburg	BAL	AL	SS

20 gm qualification; 5×5 Roto; Blue indicates new tier

Notes on some select SS:

Trea Turner heads back to the NL East on the heels of his first 100+ R/RBI season – his 3rd of 100+ runs, 1st reaching 100+ RBIs (previous high of 77). There has been some concern around his spike in Chase rate (36% O-Swing; career 29% coming into ’22) and it might have played a role in his power drop as his .169 ISO was well below the .213 he had from 2019-21. It is worth monitoring. I’m more inclined to fade him to allow a transition year after inking the huge deal with Philadelphia as opposed to major concerns about the Chase spike.

Bo Bichette had just two months north of .743 OPS, but one of them was the incredible 1.105 in September with 7 HR which helped him secure the #4 spot at the position despite a 12-SB dip down to 13 with just a 62% success rate. The rule changes could fuel a bounce back into the 20s and if he regains the elite efficiency from 2021 (96%) or something close to it, he might chase down Turner for the top spot, especially if he can lead the American League in hits for a 3rd straight season.

On a per plate appearance basis, Fernando Tatis Jr. is tops. It’s the fact that I tabbed him for 530 PA that pushes him down to 3rd. He has just been so absurd across his 1175 MLB PA that it’s hard to find any flaw beyond the missed time – 21 games for sure due to suspension and the ever-present shoulder risk. If the remainder of the suspension is all he misses, he has a realistic shot at being the top overall player.

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