Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – March 15th, 2023 by Paul Sporer March 15, 2023 Beware the Ides of My Chat!! That doesn’t make any sense, but I did chat on the Ides of March… transcript is now available! 1:06 Paul Sporer: Hello everyone!! 1:06 Ted: Trade Jazz Chisholm for Brandon Woodruff in a keep forever? My offense is loaded, but I need arms. 1:06 Paul Sporer: I’m good with that given your context especially 1:06 Craig: Looks like Rodolfo Castro will win the 2B job in PIT, with 3B eligibility. For NL only leagues, do you think he’s a viable option? See upside in him? 1:07 Paul Sporer: Oh I’m a Dolfo fan!! https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/3-breakout-second-basemen-for-2023/ 1:10 Greg: Jeff Zimmerman recently tweeted some concerns about Jordan Walker’s swing and miss ( Jeff Zimmerman @jeffwzimmerman During yesterday’s pod, I mentioned Jordan Walkers’ propensity to swing and miss. During ST so far, he has a 23% SwStr%. Here are the SwStr% and K% rates from Apr last year (min 30 PA). Once he starts facing Major league pitching, a .200 AVG is absolutely in play. LaunchAnglePod@LaunchAnglePod Join @RobSilver @jeffwzimmerman @deadpullhitter as they continue on @TheNFBC ADP: P: H.Brown, Sonny Gray, Cobb, Lange, E.Cabrera, Berrios, E.Phillips B: Jordan Walker, Miguel Vargas, Laureano, J.Naylor, Josh Rojas, Segura, Arraez, Seth Brown, Stott podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/rober… 9 Mar 2023 Do you have any concerns about that? I have him in a super cheap keep forever league, but that was the first time I’ve seen that concerned mentioned about Walker and I’m wondering if it would be better to sell high. What do you think? 1:13 Paul Sporer: Not major concerns as I definitely expect some swing-and-miss from a power prospect like Walker. I rarely see a prospect as locked in with no downside and his would definitely be whiffing too much. It might make you tap the brakes on his recent draft surge that will only continue if he is confirmed to break camp, but as a post-200 pick, I’m OK taking on that risk 1:13 Scott TINSTAAPP: 1 week till Vegas wooooo! 1:14 Paul Sporer: I’m so excited! I’ve got NYC this week for Tout & then Vegas next week for NFBC Main Event. Sooo much going on. Still working on my big SP ranking article and also getting ready for the release of OOTP24 (which I’m working on) and MLB The Show (which I’m an avid player of). March rules!!! Plus March Madness which is always fun, even as a very casual NCAA BB fan these days 1:14 Eds: Are you fitting in a Beat Paul Sporer Online Championship before Vegas? I’m looking for an excuse to jump in one more OC! 1:15 Paul Sporer: YES!! I need to pick my date, Greg is probably mad that I’m taking so long, but all the aforementioned goings-on have eaten up my time. It’ll be a week night early next week or sometime the following week. Are you out on any particular weeknight? 1:15 Billy Sims: Important comp questions are needed! Justin body comp’d you to Triston McKenzie this week. Where are you body comp’ing Justin. Are we looking in Bartolo territory? 1:17 Paul Sporer: In fairness, I body comp’d myself to Triston as we are perfectly matching height & weight! For Justin, I’m thinkin Bart could work or maybe Daniel Vogelbach. I would say Lance Lynn, but Justin isn’t quite as tall as Lynn 1:17 Kate: Apparently Josiah gray has added a cutter (and also added a sinker late last year). Anything if interest here as a sleeper for this year? 1:18 Paul Sporer: The price is definitely right and I’m a fan of the raw talent. As long as the pitch will help cut his HR rate, I’m in! He neeeeds to address that before being fantasy viable in even NL only leagues 1:18 RTJ: Is there anything to point to that would give me hope for a successful 2023 for Spencer Torkelson? 1:21 Paul Sporer: If you buy prospect pedigree and the notion of not judging too harshly on small samples, both of which I do. And yes 404 PA is still a pretty small sample in the grand scheme. Obviously if we don’t real a step forward this year, it’s trouble, but I’m in on the discounted price 1:23 Chip: Thoughts on Masataka Yoshida? You buying the hype? 1:24 Paul Sporer: Yeah, he feels like a Verdugo+ to me 1:25 Frank: I’m in win-now mode with a loaded roster in a dynasty league. Is Jazz Chisholm and Jordan Walker too much to give up for Goldschmidt and Zack Wheeler in a keep forever league? 1:26 Paul Sporer: No, I don’t think so. Flags fly forever as they say and you’re getting a premium 1B and near-ace caliber starter. 1:26 RTJ: How much am I downgrading 2023 Freedie Freeman right now? 1:27 Paul Sporer: Bc of the hammy? Maybe a round? I haven’t seen it being labeled all that serious right now 1:27 Tony S: How does the Yankees SS position play out? 1:28 Paul Sporer: I think Peraza gets the first shot to hold it. He can really pick it so if the bat is capable, he’s got a shot to hold onto it 1:29 Kate: One catcher obp league with deep rosters (deep enough to be worth rostering a second catcher). How would you rank garver, heim, and Elias Diaz? 1:29 Paul Sporer: Heim, Garver, Diaz 1:32 Mike: What’s your level of concern with Tatis long term? I have him in dynasty, trying to figure out if I should just sell and get what I can for him or keep and see if he’ll get back close to where he was. I just can’t get past all those wrist/shoulder injuries and surgeries. 1:33 Paul Sporer: I certainly have nerves about his long-term health, but even in the short-term, I’m not super into him. I’m not taking him at his price in redrafts. Obviously the upside is rich but I can’t pay the premium 1:33 Colton: Good afternoon Paul, hope you’re well! Severino hasn’t looked great this spring, does that affect your outlook on him heading into the year? 1:35 Paul Sporer: Not particularly, no. Still has 14 Ks and I’m always going to be more keyed into K and BB than anything else. 5 BB is a lot, but I like that he’s missing plenty of bats. 1:38 Craig: Seems like the analysts opinion on Wilmer Flores is varied. Where do you stand? 3B eligibility 1:41 Paul Sporer: Solid if unspectacular deep league utility play. Needs to get the AVG back up, though, or else there just isn’t much fantasy juice 1:42 Chipper: What are you hearing on Ozzie Peraza? 1:42 Paul Sporer: Answered a Q about him early you can scroll up for more, but good glove that has a great shot at winning the SS job 1:42 Mike: Pick 1 post 200adp pitcher you want as many shares as you can get? 1:45 Paul Sporer: Hard to narrow down just one, but gimme Hayden Wesneski 1:46 RyanW: What are your expectations for Jesse Winker this year? 1:49 Paul Sporer: Obviously health is a consistent issue, but if healthy, I expect an improvement in Milwaukee. He’s a quality hitter and Milwaukee is a much better place to hit than Seattle 1:49 Guest: Do you play in any non 5 by 5 leagues and what other categories do you recommend 1:50 Paul Sporer: I play an Ottoneu, H2H, and Best Ball pts league. As for other categories, I really like the 5×5 setup, but I’ve played with OBP, Holds, quality starts, innings, net steals (SB-CS) 1:50 Chuck: My league does Net Stolen Bases, does this affect how you draft steals or are you more likely just to draft as normal? 1:54 Paul Sporer: Speaking of Net SB! It doesn’t greatly change my strategy but I’ll be mindful of guys who consistently have CS issues like Arozarena recently 1:55 Guest: I need to keep 2 of Luzardo / Giolito / Glasnow in a Dynasty League. Help! 1:55 Paul Sporer: I’d go Luz and Gio. Glasnow’s health just makes him too tough to keep. It’s just so constant that it’s hard to bet on him for even 100 IP let alone a full season’s worth 1:55 Guest: In a 12 teamer, is gambling i can cut and re-add Winker later worth the stashing on IL of Bader? 1:56 Paul Sporer: Yes, I’d roll the dice there 1:56 Mike: Is Oswaldo Cabrera a Sleeper? Seems like he is in line skill wise and playing time to well outperform his draft position but not hearing much on him. 2:00 Paul Sporer: Heck yeah he is! I love Oswaldo and he will definitely be in my OF Breakout piece coming soon. I think he plays a lot of RF and has the pop/spd combo that plays very well in fantasy \ 2:01 Mike: Which 1 or 2 backups of the top closers should I be targeting? 2:02 Paul Sporer: I know I was super high on Giovanny Gallegos last year as a primary closer and he got usurped by Ryan Helsley, but I still quite like him and he’s obviously much cheaper now. I see low double digit saves with great ratios and plenty of Ks 2:02 Curious George: Who of Peterson, Megill or Wesneski has the biggest impact? 2:03 Paul Sporer: Wesneski for me. He should be starting from day 1 while the 2 Mets are more uncertain (well, Peterson is penciled in w/Quintana’s injury, but I still like Wes over him) 2:03 Lt. Caine: Do you think Michael Massey can hang onto the KC 2B job all season and put up numbers that are Gleyber-Lite? maybe 20/15 over a full season with a .255 avg? Is he a legit piece for a 20 team dynasty? 2:04 Paul Sporer: You’re gonna like my 2B breakout piece! https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/3-breakout-second-basemen-for-2023/ — I’m a huge fan of his and think he’s totally underrated right now 2:04 Saving Pirate Bryan: What % chance would you put on Pirates trading Bryan Reynolds before the deadline this year? 2:04 Paul Sporer: 38% 2:04 BTinVT: Ruiz/A’s…Your thoughts? Thank you. 2:06 Paul Sporer: Not a huge fan. I know the speed is electric, but can he hit enough to leverage it? I’m not so sure and I’ve bought into this player type before to disappointing results. Plus, he’s not exactly cheap, either, with a 226 ADP 2:06 Jeff: Would you consider Segura a high-floor (unsexy) 2B? 2:07 Paul Sporer: Yep, feels like an easy double-double at a great price 2:07 Rusty: Buying Volpe’s hot spring? Better option for MI in 2023 only than Rosario, Hoerner, India, etc tier? 2:08 Paul Sporer: Not to break camp, I still think Volpe starts in the minors. I prefer Rosario most among that trio 2:08 Salty: The list of injuries we’re already seeing this year is unreal prior to Opening Day. Considering your height, you may want to start a throwing program now. It’s a longshot, but you’re in close proximity to two ML teams, and I’m sure you’ve seen those stories of guys off the streets serving as backup goalies when NHL teams are desperate. 2:08 Paul Sporer: Happens every year and it’s always such a bummer. We get SOOO excited for the season to start and then crushing disappointment of injuries starts to hit 2:08 Stick to Sporer-tzball: Hi Paul – thanks for the chat. on your pod with Eric it sounded like you wanted to see something from Royce before you are optimistic on his future. I can keep him for $2 in a keep forever annual increase of $3 league. Total budget is $250 for keepers and drafted. Keep him? 2:09 Paul Sporer: Royce Lewis? I’m good at that price. Obviously the injuries have sucked, but I’ll take the chance at a bargain bin price 2:09 Windy City: Are the White Sox the best team in the AL Central? Is it their depth is the issue? 2:10 Paul Sporer: They’re in the mix with CLE and MIN. I have a hard time declaring one of the three to well out in front. Depth is an issue for CWS, yes 2:10 Sleeper or Creeper: Hi Paul, see any hope in a Grisham bounce back or should I give up on the tools? 2:11 Paul Sporer: I’m taking the discount (323 ADP) bc it covers the downside, but I have some nervousness about him being a lot more than he was last year. Hang on for a few weeks and see what’s up. 2:11 Herb Winningham: Hey Paul, inadvertently hit enter twice. Oops. Love seeing Expos playoff runs in OOTP. In an AL only 11 team OBP $280 cap two catcher, I’ve got two questions: 1) Who would you keep? $11 Logan Gilbert, $1 Jose Leclerc, or $2 Hunter Brown 2) I have Raleigh $1 and MJ Mel for $8 – at auction Kirk, Varsho, and Salvy all up for auction – I never have more than 2C but MJ and Varsho at OF and 1C at UTIL seems an amazing way to corner a market and trade for MI help. What am I missing for potential downside? 2:14 Paul Sporer: Wasn’t it Herm Winningham? I’d keep $2 Brown in that group. I’m a HUGE fan of his. I have such a hard time putting a catcher anywhere but catcher, it just takes so much value from them. Varsho’s numbers are enough to hold an OF spot and I can see what you’re saying about draining the pool a bit w/3 Cs in an AL Only, but I’m still a little dubious on the gambit as I just greatly prefer to uses Cs at C. 2:14 Big Wheel: Will our tigers ever be good at player development? 2:14 Paul Sporer: I’m excited with Scott Harris at the helm! 2:14 RTJ: Mitch Keller named opening day starter. Should I be grabbing him as a post hype guy? 2:14 Paul Sporer: He’s not a bad gamble! I’m still in at his price 2:15 Guest: Is it madness to imagine AJ Minter leading all of MLB in holds this season? 2:15 Paul Sporer: No, it’s not madness 2:15 Nickles: Can you rank Gunnar Henderson, Witt and Corbin Carroll in a 5×5? 2:16 Paul Sporer: Witt, Carroll, Gunnar. My full ranks available here, updated earlier this week! https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy-tools/rankings/expert?expert=Sporer 2:16 Dave: Final keeper: Nars Lootbaar or Josh Jung? 2:16 Paul Sporer: Ooooh, 2 Sporer faves. I’m going Jung there, but man do I like both of them quite a bit! 2:16 grin at your grundle: Where would you have Grandal in your C rankings in an OBP league? 2:17 Paul Sporer: Very high! https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy-tools/rankings/expert?expert=Sporer&… 2:19 Paul Sporer: Wish I could go longer, but the schedule is just JAM PACKED right now so I gotta cut it here. Next week’s chat will be moved to 9am CT as I will be traveling later in the day. Just FYI!!! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). Have a good one, y’all!