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In past seasons I’ve done this Daily SP Chart down the stretch and invariably there are comments asking why I don’t do it all season. I’ve never really had a great answer for that so now I’m doing it!

Once the season gets going, the chart will include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. At the outset, I will put their 2022 stats along with the note. The opponent wOBA will remain blank – or rather just not be included in the chart – for a while until we get some data (7-10 days at least) and because there is so much lineup turnover year-to-year, I’m not going to include last year’s mark.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. These are for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto and then you can mentally widen the range for H2H formats.

Read the rest of this entry »

In past seasons I’ve done this Daily SP Chart down the stretch and invariably there are comments asking why I don’t do it all season. I’ve never really had a great answer for that so now I’m doing it!

Once the season gets going, the chart will include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. At the outset, I will put their 2022 stats along with the note. The opponent wOBA will remain blank for a while until we get some data and because there is so much lineup turnover year-to-year, I’m not going to include last year’s mark.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. Read the rest of this entry »

In past seasons I’ve done this Daily SP Chart down the stretch and invariably there are comments asking why I don’t do it all season. I’ve never really had a great answer for that so now I’m doing it! Why didn’t I have one for Opening Day? Mostly because everyone on Opening Day is an easy start. Honestly, there aren’t a ton of tough decisions in these first few days, but I still want to get into the routine of doing it so we’ll start with Friday’s light slate (the lighter slate on Day 2 of the season is to protect against potential rain/snow outs on Opening Day in the colder weather environments).

Once the season gets going, the chart will include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. At the outset, I will put their 2022 stats along with the note. The opponent wOBA will remain blank – or rather just not be included in the chart – for a while until we get some data (7-10 days at least) and because there is so much lineup turnover year-to-year, I’m not going to include last year’s mark.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. These are for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto and then you can mentally widen the range for H2H formats.

Read the rest of this entry »

3/31/23

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

PATREON

• Join our Patreon for live video feeds of each show
• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Justin Verlander to IL
• Max Fried to IL
• Willson Contreras leaves game
• Gary Sanchez to SFG
• Andrés Muñoz & Jhoan Duran get 1st SV opps
• Ryan Helsley & Ryan Pressly shaky in debuts
• Opening Day SBs up big

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In past seasons I’ve done this Daily SP Chart down the stretch and invariably there are comments asking why I don’t do it all season. I’ve never really had a great answer for that so now I’m doing it! Why didn’t I have one for Opening Day? Mostly because everyone on Opening Day is an easy start. Honestly, there aren’t a ton of tough decisions in these first few days, but I still want to get into the routine of doing it so we’ll start with Friday’s light slate (the lighter slate on Day 2 of the season is to protect against potential rain/snow outs on Opening Day in the colder weather environments).

Once the season gets going, the chart will include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. At the outset, I will put their 2022 stats along with the note. The opponent wOBA will remain blank – or rather just not be included in the chart – for a while until we get some data (7-10 days at least) and because there is so much lineup turnover year-to-year, I’m not going to include last year’s mark.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. These are for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto and then you can mentally widen the range for H2H formats.

Read the rest of this entry »

Transcript is now available!

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3/28/23

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

PATREON

• Join our Patreon for live video feeds of each show
• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Triston McKenzie injury
• Rhys Hoskins injury; Darick Hall ascends
• Grayson Rodriguez sent down; Tyler Wells in
• Christopher Morel sent down; Edwin Ríos in
• Anthony Volpe made the Yankees
• Jordan Walker made the Cardinals

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As I did in the 1B piece, I’ll ask that we not get too hung up on the actual phrasing of “breakout”. These are guys I like above their market price and have them easily outperforming their draft cost.

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Shortstops
• Outfielders

Kyle Bradish | BAL

My Projection: 3.74 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 175 Ks, 10 W in 166 IP

Bradish is getting some spring buzz in different pockets of the fantasy world, but remains remarkably affordable at the draft table as the 81st SP off the board in Main Event drafts so far. The 26-year-old righty is looking to build off a strong second half (3.73 FIP in 71 IP), including an absolute gem against Houston in late-September (1 out shy of a Complete Game with 10 Ks and 0 BB). He will need to trim his home run rate (1.3) which should certainly be possible in the revamped Camden Yards that is now a pitcher-friendly park and one major key will be continue reliance on his slider over the fastball. He was using it 36% of the time in his final 8 starts, up 10 points from his first 15, and shaving fastball usage is addition by subtraction. I’m not getting hung up on Bradish’s ugly spring ERA (8.74), but rather focusing on the 14 Ks and 3 BB in 11.3 innings. If he can trim down his implosion starts (8 last year), there is substantial potential here.

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As I did in the 1B piece, I’ll ask that we not get too hung up on the actual phrasing of “breakout”. These are guys I like above their market price and have them easily outperforming their draft cost.

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Shortstops

Lars Nootbaar | STL  

My Projection: .267/.357/.451, 23 HR, 76 R, 69 RBI, 8 SB in 583 PA

Yep, I’m on the Noot Train. I’m just a sucker for a plate profile like that (0.72 BB/K – 16th highest among hitters with 300 PA, tied with Nolan Arenado). He’s got enough pop to chase down a biiig homer number, too (30+). I thought he was going to be a Wide Awake Sleeper – sleepers on every list, robbing them of any real draft value – but the early Main Event drafts saw him dropping so you can still get him as a reasonable price (ADP 188). He does have 6 SBs in 471 MLB PA, too, so I wonder if he could be a sneaky double-digit guy by taking advantage of the new rules. He is 2-for-2 on the bases in the WBC.

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