Starting Pitcher Chart – May 19th

May 19, 2023

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Friday, May 19th Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	THR	10	12	15+	NOTE
1	Shane McClanahan	TBR		MIL	L	x	x	x	The 12% BB rate is a liiiittle concerning, but it hasn’t hit the bottom line just yet; 6 HR in L5 isn’t great either… and yet, still an easy start
2	Zac Gallen	ARI	at	PIT	R	x	x	x	Looking like a bona fide ace again
3	Joe Ryan	MIN	at	LAA	R	x	x	x	Big improvements early on have fueled improved K-BB and HR rates
4	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	at	SFG	R	x	x	x	He’s getting pummeled the 3rd time through right now, allowing a .925 OPS which is 13th worst in the lg (min. 40 BF); he’s top 30 the 1st & 2nd times through
5	Reid Detmers	LAA		MIN	L	x	x	x	He is so much better than a near-5.00 ERA, I’m buying where available
6	Bryce Miller	SEA	at	ATL	R	x	x	x	Most impressive call-up thus far has to come down from these obscene ratios but has quickly emerged into an all-formats play
7	James Paxton	BOS	at	SDP	L	x	x	x	Talent isn’t really the question, it’s always health — I’m starting him everywhere right now
8	Bryce Elder	ATL		SEA	R	x	x	x	Riding an 87% LOB rate to this early success, but he’s a solid high-3.00s/low-4.00s talent… might not have space on your roster in 10s, but he’s streamable anywhere
9	Anthony DeSclafani	SFG		MIA	R	x	x	x	Likely not missing enough bats (18% K, 8% SwStr) to sustain these incredible HR gains (career-best 0.7 HR v. career 1.3)
10	Marcus Stroman	CHC	at	PHI	R		x	x	Couple duds have pushed his numbers back in line with is career norms… likely a rotation mainstay in most 12s & up; maybe more Team Streamer in 10s
11	Blake Snell	SDP		BOS	L		x	x	BB are still a problem, but he has reeled off 3 straight 6 IP starts (3.50 ERA, 1.11 WHIP)… would be a full sit if this was on the road
12	Carlos Carrasco	NYM		CLE	R		x	x	Don’t want to overreact to a couple starts, but even his good one was just OK… great matchup, but I’m not against sitting it out (I’m 51%/49% leaning to start)
13	Tony Gonsolin	LAD	at	STL	R			x	“Oh wow, you really maintained your BABIP without the shift, Tony?” … “What, like it’s hard?”
14	Ranger Suárez	PHI		CHC	L			x	Solid streamer who can get hot and reside on a team for 6 wks; if some of these SwStr gains from his rehab & season debut are real, he’s interesting
15	Cal Quantrill	CLE	at	NYM	R			x	Really stretching the limits of what can reasonably be expected of 4% K-BB
16	Jake Irvin	WSN		DET	R			x	Decent in his first 2, but I can’t get really get beyond the 5% SwStr and find the start button for him very often.. Only if I’m throwin’ weekend Hail Marys
17	Martín Pérez	TEX		COL	L				Has given back all of his 2022 gains and that ERA could certainly push higher if he doesn’t tighten things up a bit
18	Zack Greinke	KCR	at	CHW	R				Not sure his upside is worth the heavy risk every time out
19	Clarke Schmidt	NYY	at	CIN	R				Just too inconsistent to maximize his 18% K-BB; kinda wanna stash in deeper lgs, but he isn’t a must-hold
20	Michael Kopech	CHW		KCR	R				Command and control have eluded Kopech thus far; would love to see him get back on track as he can be electric
21	Brandon Bielak	HOU		OAK	R				That WHIP can’t support that low of an ERA much longer
22	Steven Matz	STL		LAD	L				Career-long HR issues have always made it tough to rely on him for long periods of time
23	Yusei Kikuchi	TOR		BAL	L				Can’t be trusted w/a 2.4 HR rate
24	Matthew Boyd	DET	at	WSN	L				HRs have returned in a big way w/5 in his L5 starts (7.43 ERA, 1.57 WHIP in 23 IP)
25	Kyle Gibson	BAL	at	TOR	R				Has had some streamer viability this yr but a 9% K-BB has made him super volatile meaning the risk of his bad hasn’t been worth the low-chance upside
26	Ken Waldichuk	OAK	at	HOU	L				11 BB in his last 2 have slashed his K-BB to 7%
27	Johan Oviedo	PIT		ARI	R				Live arm with some upisde, but not in a matchup like this — keep him on your watchlist
28	Ben Lively 라이블리	CIN		NYY	R				Just doesn’t miss enough bats to trust in a venue like this
29	Karl Kauffmann	COL	at	TEX	R				2019 8th rounder making his MLB debut and gets a tough landing w/the Rangers… profiles as a back of the rotation arm which paired w/Coors is a quick pass
30	Adrian Houser	MIL	at	TBR	R				Been hit hard in his first 2 starts and even when the .438 BABIP settles, there still isn’t much to see here

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

Friday, May 19th Starter Stats

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	THR	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	OPP L30 wOBA	wOBA RK
1	Shane McClanahan	TBR		MIL	L	x	x	x	50	2.34	1.22	18%	0.285	27th
2	Zac Gallen	ARI	at	PIT	R	x	x	x	57.1	2.35	0.85	28%	0.296	24th
3	Joe Ryan	MIN	at	LAA	R	x	x	x	50	2.16	0.84	26%	0.337	7th
4	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	at	SFG	R	x	x	x	51.1	4.91	1.21	16%	0.316	12th
5	Reid Detmers	LAA		MIN	L	x	x	x	35	4.89	1.51	17%	0.290	26th
6	Bryce Miller	SEA	at	ATL	R	x	x	x	19	0.47	0.42	27%	0.312	15th
7	James Paxton	BOS	at	SDP	L	x	x	x	5	3.60	1.00	40%	0.360	6th
8	Bryce Elder	ATL		SEA	R	x	x	x	46.1	1.94	1.12	13%	0.304	17th
9	Anthony DeSclafani	SFG		MIA	R	x	x	x	50	3.06	0.96	15%	0.293	25th
10	Marcus Stroman	CHC	at	PHI	R		x	x	47.1	2.28	1.06	15%	0.317	11th
11	Blake Snell	SDP		BOS	L		x	x	41	4.61	1.54	10%	0.349	8th
12	Carlos Carrasco	NYM		CLE	R		x	x	13.2	8.56	1.61	0%	0.271	30th
13	Tony Gonsolin	LAD	at	STL	R			x	14	1.93	1.07	9%	0.344	3rd
14	Ranger Suárez	PHI		CHC	L			x	4	6.75	2.00	15%	0.345	10th
15	Cal Quantrill	CLE	at	NYM	R			x	45.1	3.97	1.35	4%	0.314	14th
16	Jake Irvin	WSN		DET	R			x	10.2	0.84	1.22	2%	0.285	29th
17	Martín Pérez	TEX		COL	L				42.1	4.25	1.61	9%	0.290	24th
18	Zack Greinke	KCR	at	CHW	R				46.2	5.01	1.24	13%	0.299	20th
19	Clarke Schmidt	NYY	at	CIN	R				35.1	5.35	1.61	20%	0.301	18th
20	Michael Kopech	CHW		KCR	R				42.1	5.74	1.56	7%	0.307	16th
21	Brandon Bielak	HOU		OAK	R				13.2	3.29	1.83	8%	0.293	26th
22	Steven Matz	STL		LAD	L				41.2	5.62	1.61	11%	0.290	25th
23	Yusei Kikuchi	TOR		BAL	L				37.2	3.35	1.19	16%	0.342	12th
24	Matthew Boyd	DET	at	WSN	L				32	6.47	1.56	10%	0.343	11th
25	Kyle Gibson	BAL	at	TOR	R				47	4.40	1.34	9%	0.317	13th
26	Ken Waldichuk	OAK	at	HOU	L				41	7.02	1.83	7%	0.303	21st
27	Johan Oviedo	PIT		ARI	R				42	5.14	1.64	8%	0.362	1st
28	Ben Lively	CIN		NYY	R				3	0.00	1.33	8%	0.299	22nd
29	Karl Kauffmann	COL	at	TEX	R				#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	0.342	5th
30	Adrian Houser	MIL	at	TBR	R				8.2	5.19	1.96	12%	0.356	4th

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

Thursday, May 18th Starter Review

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	T	10	12	15+	NOTE
1	Julio Urías	LAD	at	STL	R	x	x	x	Allowed 4 HR in 3 IP pushing his season rate to 2.3
2	Dylan Cease	CHW		CLE	R	x	x	x	Not the Cease everyone paid for with just 3 Ks
3	Eury Pérez	MIA		WSN	R	x	x	x	Great start (5 IP/1 ER/6 Ks) that included his 1st W
4	José Berríos	TOR		NYY	R	x	x	x	Rebounded well after 2 R in the 1st, coming an out shy of 7 IP with 8 Ks
5	Logan Allen	CLE	at	CHW	L	x	x	x	Has been a machine since coming up
6	Tyler Wells	BAL		LAA	R		x	x	Worked around 2 HRs for a solid outing that included 7 Ks
7	Taj Bradley	TBR	at	NYM	R		x	x	Solid enough return to the bigs… surely he stays now, right?
8	Nestor Cortes	NYY	at	TOR	L			x	Good start… can he string a couple in a row?
9	Trevor Williams	WSN	at	MIA	R			x	Another capable stream but I’m not sure he has enough heat to use v. SD next wk
10	Tyler Anderson	LAA	at	BAL	L				Suffering 1 bad inning almost seems inevitable w/as much contact as he allows
11	Tylor Megill	NYM	at	TBR	R				Has just been so tough to trust start-to-start due to his BB%, was nice to see 1 BB here
12	Adam Wainwright	STL		LAD	R				Got a bit bailed out by some unearned runs & an absolute offensive barrage by his teammates

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

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Kevinmember

11 months ago

Thanks as always Paul, these are so helpful.

Found a couple typos.
Think you meant Great American instead of Yankee Stadium for Lively.Kikuchi is facing the Orioles today, not the Yankees

Last edited 11 months ago by Kevin

Paul Sporermember

Reply to Kevin

Tyvm!