2024 Fantasy Pitcher Breakouts – Sporer’s Picks
Let’s not get too hung up on the actual phrasing of “Breakout”. These are guys I like at their market rate and have them outperforming their draft cost. Breakout, Sleeper, whatever your term is… these are the guys I like buying because they can deliver a strong profit.
Changelog
- 3/15/2024: Initial list
Ranking Methodology
- ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
- $ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
- ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
- 5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net (though that’s not a big deal at SP).
Top 100 Bargains
| Rank | Name | Team | Pos | Change | ADP | $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Kirby | SEA | SP | – | 33 | $25 |
| 2 | Evan Phillips | LAD | RP | – | 89 | $9 |
George Kirby is a Top 40 pick so we are dealing with small margins here to call him a breakout. He’s SP5 on my current rankings but will jump a spot to SP4 with the recent Gerrit Cole news. Kirby is in a tight SP8-10 window during early March drafts as you have to go to the decimals to separate the ADPs of Kirby, Pablo Lopez, and Tyler Glasnow. I’m obsessed with 80-grade command and can easily see a path toward more strikeouts as he further develops his arsenal entering his third MLB season. Even if his 23% K rate doesn’t jump, he’s one of the stronger bets for 200+ IP so he could still deliver a Top 20 K total.
Did you know that Baseball Reference lists one of Evan Phillips’s nicknames as High Leverage Honey Bun? That and that alone is why he’s on this list. OK fine, it’s not the only reason. Being the closer on one of the best teams in baseball coming off back-to-back elite seasons also drives my interest in Phillips. Some may be bothered by him only notching 24 SVs, but that didn’t stop him from being 5th best RP on the Auction Calcultor thanks to his tiny ratios (2.05 ERA, 0.83 WHIP). I have no idea why he’s the 11th closer off the board… I’m taking maybe five guys ahead of him (Diaz, Duran, Hader, Clase, Doval).
