The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

I fell asleep before 10pm for maybe only the 2nd or 3rd time of the baseball season! Let’s take a look at Tuesday’s board:

• There was a version of this board up for about 2 minutes that had Eury as 3-x. I’ve moved him down as I definitely don’t trust him in all formats going into Coors.
• Abbott has been wobbly down the stretch (4.40 ERA/1.26 WHIP in L30) and I’ve had some skepticism about him all year so I’m not terribly surprised by the downturn, but he was brilliant last time out in SDP to hopefully assuage some concerns that were building.
• Ohtani was right back down to 3.7 IP last time out and he’s just not a bankable 5 IP having done it exactly once this year and now gets a brutally difficult matchup so I’m not sure I’m looking to start him in many spots
• Clay Holmes is starting, but Manaea is following and while he hasn’t been terribly good at all this year, following does put him in a better spot to steal a win even if it’s only 3-4 good innings so I don’t mind the risk in some spots.
• Let’s be careful with Pepiot… seems to be wearing down in the stretch run here and gets a tough matchup so while I’m still a mega-fan of the talent, he’s not a must-start here.

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The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Board tonight, comments in the morning!

• Rodón and Suárez are the only real studs today and Suárez gets stuck facing LAD… still running him everywhere, of course
• Littell walks a tightrope with the excellent 4% BB% and putrid 1.8 HR9; his last 2 starts crystallize the range of outcomes w/this skillset — 4.3 IP/5 ER/4 HR v. TOR | 6 IP/2 ER/0 HR at SDP
• Taillon was OK off the IL (4.3 IP/2 ER) and gets a trip back to his old stomping grounds where he should be able to put himself in line for a Win
• Bradish has been fantastic in 3 starts since returning from injury with skills to back it up, though 2 of his L3 starts will be v. and at NYY
• Gallen had been rolling with a 2.20 ERA/1.05 WHIP in his L7 (6 QS) but suffered through a rough 1st inning at SFG (3 ER) to interrupt the run… allowed just 2 ER over his final 5.7 IP of that SFG start so I’m not letting the 5 ER outing deter and in fact, I’m adding a 10-team reco for him and probably prefer him to Strider in a 1 v. 1
• Ashcraft and Sheehan are two rising young arms that I like a good bit, but these are some tough matchups to navigate so they aren’t must starts
• Alexander is running a 2.20 ERA/0.98 WHIP so I might’ve undersold him a bit. I knew he was doing well, but didn’t know it was that well. I’ve added an “x” and I’d start him over Leiter. I still prefer the Ashcraft/Sheehan duo over him as I believe in their stuff more
• Can’t wait to watch Yesavage’s debut tonight… and if Boyle’s on, it could be a great matchup!

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9/12/25

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2-START PITCHERS FOR WEEK 26

• Auto Starts: Spencer Strider, Cade Horton, Andrew Abbott, Carlos Rodón, Cam Schlittler, Paul Skenes, Nick Pivetta, Logan Gilbert, Ryan Pepiot

Guys in BOLD are repeats from last week

• Zac Gallen, SFG, PHI 10:45
• Jeffrey Springs at BOS, at PIT 14:15
• Kyle Bradish at CHW, NYY 16:00
• Connelly Early ATH, at TBR 17:50
• Jameson Taillon, at PIT, at CIN 20:37
• Zack Littell, at STL, CHC 23:36
• Sean Burke, BAL, SDP 26:10
• Casey Mize, CLE, ATL 26:22

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The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

I know the Cubs game is going already today, but here’s the rest of the weekend!

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Read the rest of this entry »

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Holy Toledo, what a rough board for the short slate Thursday! I keep a running loose ranking all throughout the year and only 2 guys in my Top 40 are going today. I’ll let you guess which 2 and neither is Schlittler or Seymour yet despite their impressive small samples. But that lack of experience also stands out when they rank 2nd and 4th on a board, respectively.

• Luzardo draws the top spot, but the Mets are blazing hot vL lately sitting 1st in wOBA over the L30
• I’m still starting Schlittler and Seymour in virtually all spots so that wasn’t a diss earlier, just underscoring how thin Thursday is. These two will be the subject of many offseason conversations and appear on a lot of breakout/sleeper lists as the next big thing. I need to do more research on Seymour to see where I land, but I can see myself contributing to the Schlittler hype for sure.
• Gausman’s been undeniably good this year (SP23 on Player Rater) and yet I never feel that good starting him and I really can’t explain it. It’s also theoretical for me this year because I don’t have him so I should say “recommending him” more than “starting him’. It’s idle concern, though, because I can’t see benching him anywhere even in tougher matchups.
• Love that my guy Gav Williams has his ERA down to a strong 3.17, but I haven’t been sprinting victory laps around everyone because I understand the 1.29 WHIP mitigates some of his impact… he’s SP40 which is 1 spot higher than my SP41 spring rank.
• Peterson’s been all over the map lately: 26-79-55-6-41 Game Scores over his L5 so I really wouldn’t blame anyone for passing in Philly, but he’s at least worthy of consideration everywhere even if only in hopes of nabbing a W.
• Smith’s had an excellent 2H rebound and honestly as I’m typing this I’m realizing I like him over Peterson but I’ve already remade the board like 6x writing these comments so pardon me for being a lazy bum and leaving it as-is and just telling y’all I prefer our boy Shane!
• Weathers is coming off the IL so he’s a total wildcard but he reached 4.7 IP in 68 pitches during his last rehab so if they expand that to 75-80 pitches, 5 IP should be doable… I’d say pickup and stash but he’s headed to Coors next week and I’m doing my best to avoid ALL Coors starts down the stretch (studs still starting there, though).
• Oviedo’s a hot hand play, but he’s legitimately hot and someone I really liked both coming up with St. Louis and during his platform 2023 season with Pittsburgh; more BB (13%) than we’d like in his 5 starts off the IL, but also a 29% K and very few hits fueling a sharp 1.10 WHIP. BAL can still clip a pitcher, but I don’t run from them.
• Sori’s WHIP remains terrifying and despite the elite matchup, I’m not sure how good Kolek is so I don’t think he’s an overwhelming must start.

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Transcript is now available, thanks for coming out!

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The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Board tonight, comments in the morning!

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Read the rest of this entry »

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Board tonight, comments in the morning! I’m also curious if there’s anything those of you still chasing down titles and placements would want to see to make the board more useful in September.

• Tough board today starting with pitchers 2-5 all have medium-to-tough matchups. It doesn’t take me off any of ’em, of course, just know there’s some downside w/a rookie in ATL, anyone v. ARI, Biebs still only making his 6th start in 2 yrs, and Ranger in a heated divisional matchup v. NYM
• Pitchers 6-10 go the other way where it’s less bankable arms, but much stronger matchups:
  • Is Eury hitting a wall and done being good this year or ready to rebound v. WAS? It’s Mazur today, Eury tom.
  • Can Houser defeat his old team despite their improved offense? (15th wOBA in L30)
  • Will Bradish stay hot w/a great matchup?
  • Is Cameron’s tank running empty? 0 K/6 ER, 5 BB/3 ER in his L2 starts
  • Does Sheehan go long enough to steal a W in a great spot?
• I can see running any of the 2-x’s in 10-teamers, but I don’t think they are anywhere near must starts… Strider’s been better in his L2 but still just 4 Ks/5 BB so he’s not necessarily back just bc of the 4 ER in 12 IP.
• King’s 1-x is just IL return caution. As I discussed with someone in the comments, if he goes off today then it’s all systems go v. COL

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The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Board tonight, comments in the morning!

• Not all the 3-xs are created equally, of course, w/Crochet-Woo-Webb-Lodolo-Glasnow-Imanaga sitting a cut above youngsters Bergert and McLean, but I can’t envision sitting those two in many – if any – spots. McLean is in PHI which isn’t easy, but he’s just been SO elite so far.
• TEX isn’t a total walkover so I don’t think Q coasts to a win, just that I’d be willing to chase a W with him as opposed to relying on him for ratios.
• Darvish-Morales-Cecconi-Cavalli is an interesting group of risky upside arms… any of the four can pop off or get smoked and figuring who will do what is the tough part. I, of course, lean toward Darvish and Morales with their 2-x rankings, but not exponentially ahead of Cecconi-Cavalli by any stretch.
• Crismatt’s WHIP makes clear that ERA is fraudulent laced with good fortune. Still might not be the worst spot to do a haf-assed Win chase as the D’Backs can still swing it a bit so while they are an also-ran team at this point, they still have a fair win probability on most nights.

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9/7/25

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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• Paul Sporer | Twitter | Bluesky – Host
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2-START PITCHERS FOR WEEK 25

• Auto Starts: Garrett Crochet, Shota Imanaga, Nick Lodolo, George Kirby, Bryan Woo, Logan Webb
• Removed from Auto Start: José Berríos, HOU, BAL 2:10 | Framber Valdez, at TOR, at ATL 6:30
• Framber tangent 11:07
• Nabil Crismatt, at SFG, at MIN 16:00
• Luis Morales, BOS, CIN 17:36
• Joey Wentz, CHC, HOU 19:30
• Slade Cecconi, KCR, CHW 22:45
• 2 Rockies we’re never starting 
• Chase Dollander dynasty talk 25:53

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