Author: Paul Sporer | Page 4 | RotoGraphs Fantasy Baseball

Paul Sporer’s 2025 Bold Predictions REVIEW

October 27, 2025

October… the quiet time for fantasy baseball. Not for everybody, of course… I see y’all already running Draft Champions and Draft 50s over at the NFBC. I’ll be there next month. For the majority of the community, it’s review time and we here at Fangraphs have been running through our Bold Predictions to see how they went. BPs are always fun because they aren’t meant to be picks that have a super high likelihood of coming true, or else they wouldn’t be all that bold. It’s about to exploring the what could feasibly happen if things really line up but it’s far from the most likely outcome.

So even landing a few feels good when checking the over the slate in the October, let’s see how I did:

Seiya Suzuki is a Top 10 OF

Jeez, if you had told me that Suzuki was going to put up 32 HR/103 RBI back in March, I would’ve said this one is a lock. And yet, it’s not only a loss, but a resounding one. He was the 15th OF last year with a 21 HR/73 RBI/74 R/16 SB/.283 AVG season, but fell to 25th because his AVG dropped nearly 40 points to .245 while the SB total tumbled to just 5. It wasn’t a bad season for him, but we’re 0-for-1: .000

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Starting Pitcher Chart – September 27-28th, 2025

by Paul Sporer

September 27, 2025

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Hit me with any questions in the comments.

One more weekend, here we go!!!!

I wasn’t able to make any changes on Saturday, but updating that Chris Sale will be the primary behind Morton for ATL which could be huge as he could 3-4 IP and still snag a Win.

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Starting Pitcher Chart – September 26th, 2025

by Paul Sporer

September 26, 2025

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Hit me with any questions in the comments!

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Starting Pitcher Chart – September 25th, 2025

by Paul Sporer

September 25, 2025

Shota Imanago throws a pitch from the mound, Spring Training 2025 — Credit: Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Hit me with any questions in the comments!

Ober in for Ryan, obviously not nearly as interested and consider him really just a Hail Mary option in a decent matchup

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Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – September 24th, 2025 SEASON FINALE!

by Paul Sporer

September 24, 2025

Thanks for coming out and thanks for a great year of chats! Off for a few weeks to decompress after the season, but we’ll be back at it late-Oct/early-Nov for the diehards! Go Tigers, despite how bleak it feels right now!

(Apologies for the late start, was at PT for a neck injury!)

1:34	Paul Sporer: Good afternoon, y’all, thanks for coming out!!

1:34	bb: What are we doing with Adley next year?

1:43

Paul Sporer: This is definitely one of those where the price will be the key indicator. He was the 11th catcher off the board in the Meatball draft (11 rounds of a 15-team 5×5 roto draft that WILL be played out) with only Kirk and Basallo going behind him in those 11 rounds. I don’t hate that price, but I’m not chasing him down next year. This is now 1000 PA of league average work and while that’s not terrible, the catcher pool is getting deeper so I might just want other Cs in his price range or a bit ahead as I’m not against paying up for catchers.

He did finish 6th on the Player Rater last yr with a solid 19 HR/79 RBI/.250 AVG yr which is around what Yainer Diaz has done this year (19/68/.256) and he’s 12th on this year’s PR so that’s a little microcosm of how the field have improved while Adley’s regressed even further. His name will keep him from going super cheaply, too, as every room will have at least one believer

1:43	Schilling & Pence: Why was every sit/start decision I made in my home league this year wrong?

1:47

Paul Sporer: I’ve certainly gone through funks like that where every stream I line up – hitting and pitching – just comes in with a 10th percentile outcome for seemingly 6 weeks. In the end, it’s usually not that we’re making EVERY wrong move, but rather that some key ones are REALLY sticking w/us and stacking up in our head as a problem.

Now, sometimes there is a process issue worth investigating. If you’re finding similarities across the streaming misses, it could be that the process needs tightening. Are you chasing hot hands and always catching the rotten end? Are you missing splits on particular pitchers that are making seemingly good-looking streams actually more dangerous? Etc… It’s probablyyyy just a tough year, but don’t be afraid to question your processes and see if you’ve fallen behind your competition

1:48

Paul Sporer: The queue is expectedly light because a) I was late and b) it’s the last week of the season. My apologies on the former, I was doing physical therapy for a neck injury, but the latter I cannot help and totally understand. I will likely take a couple week break from chats in October before we get back into the review grind. I’ll hang around a bit longer to see if we get a few more Qs!

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Starting Pitcher Chart – September 24th, 2025

by Paul Sporer

September 24, 2025

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Board tonight, comments in the morning! (Fixed that date error)

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Starting Pitcher Chart – September 23rd, 2025

by Paul Sporer

September 23, 2025

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Board tonight, comments in the morning!

Pleeeeease let Skubes be great today, my Tigers need it sooo badly!
Webb survived his 2x v. LAD w/1 up, 1 down and has closed the season w/a solid 3.00 ERA/1.25 WHIP in 10 starts (60 IP)
Ragans only went 3.7 in his return from the IL with 62 pitches… he should get more this time out (75-80) which should be enough to at least get 5 IP… that said, I overranked him and underranked Horton so just consider them flipped
Ohtani now has 5 IP in 2 of his L3 and he was still great in 3.7 IP at BAL in between the two 5 IP outings so I’m OK running him anywhere
Gav Williams now has a 2.48 ERA over his L19 starts, dating back to June 1st; the skills were wobbly early in the run with a 5% K-BB casting a shadow over his 3.05 ERA in first 8 starts, but over his L11 he’s up to a solid 16% K-BB
I didn’t give Pepiot enough consideration last night and ranked him based on his season not hist recent stretch… he sputtered after some time off and with the Rays fully out of it, they could keep limiting Pep this week so I slashed an “x” and I consider him just below Giolito now
Miller is a little scary for sure, but you can’t pass on a COL start outside of Coors with a competent pitcher
Oviedo does have 3 BB in each of his L4 outings so there’s blowup risk here if he does it again and someone finally takes advantage (just 8 ER despite 1.55 WHIP)
The 1-x guys are so scary in this final week… there’s real upside with all of them, but season-ending downside, too

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Starting Pitcher Chart – September 22nd, 2025

by Paul Sporer

September 22, 2025

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

It’s a very short slate with just 3 games as this seems to be a designated makeup day where they would’ve slotted games canceled over the summer.

Not much by way of decision-making or potential streaming except maybe some shallow spots where JV or McGreevy are available.

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