Author Archive

The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1437 – Batter Rebounds to Believe In

by
July 25, 2025

7/24/25

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PATREON

REBOUNDS TO BELIEVE IN

(comparing wRC+ thru May 31st v. since June 1st)

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Starting Pitcher Chart – July 25th, 2025

by
July 24, 2025
Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Check out my new SP rankings here!

Let me know if you have questions about anyone either in the comments here or on the rankings page.

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Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – July 23rd, 2025

by
July 23, 2025

Thanks for coming out!!

Check out my new SP rankings here and feel free to ask questions about them today

1:03

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, how’s it going?
1:03

Matt: 12 tm roto dynasty you dropping Zebby for Melton?
1:04

Paul Sporer: No, I’d stick w/Zebby for now
1:04

RAGBRAI: Anything splashy from the Brewers next week or just some tinkering around the edges?
1:04

Paul Sporer: Probablyyyy tinkering. They have guys working their way back from injuries that they no doubt view as pseudo-acquisitions so I doubt they go for a blockbuster
1:06

steve: what in the actual is wrong with teoscar

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Starting Pitcher Chart – July 23rd, 2025

by
July 23, 2025
Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Check out my new SP rankings here!

Let me know if you have questions about anyone either in the comments here or on the rankings page.

Read the rest of this entry »


Starting Pitcher Chart – July 22nd, 2025

by
July 22, 2025
Matt Marton-Imagn Images

Daily SP Chart archive

Pardon my extreme lateness today!

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Check out my new SP rankings here!

Let me know if you have questions about anyone either in the comments here or on the rankings page.

Read the rest of this entry »


Starting Pitcher Chart – July 21st, 2025

by
July 21, 2025
Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Check out my new SP rankings here!

Let me know if you have questions about anyone either in the comments here or on the rankings page.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1435 – 2-Start Pitchers for Week 18

by
July 19, 2025

7/18/25

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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PATREON

2-START PITCHERS FOR WEEK 18

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Paul Sporer’s Updated 2025 Starting Pitcher Rankings

by
July 18, 2025
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

I posted a preview of this in today’s SP Chart, but even that Top 75 has since changed so please use this as the reference going forward. Please feel free to post your questions & comments below, I’ll be in there responding all weekend. These aren’t meant o be ironclad through the rest of the season, any rankings update is a 4-6 week outlook for me so I’m not yet concerned about potential workload shutdowns and things of that nature. Additionally, this ranking specifically might have more of a 1-3 week shelf life with the Trade Deadline looming so I will run another update shortly after that if there are substantive changes across the league. I say “if” just because the deadline could be a dud if too many teams think they’re in it and no one really sells, but I don’t expect that as there should be enough true sellers already identified to facilitate some real movement.

Injured guys aren’t ranked outside a couple who are close to returning if I recall correctly. You can ask about someone, but if they’re not due back in the next week or two, I won’t really have much insight as it’ll be dependent on their health & return. There may be a few 6th-starter types ranked here as opposed to making sure I got 5 guys per team in the Top 150 as we don’t really need every Rockie on the list.

Without further ado:

Zebby & Sheehan added Saturday AM (7/19)

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Starting Pitcher Chart – July 18th, 2025

by
July 18, 2025
Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Here’s a preview of my SP rankings with the Top 75. I’ll have a separate post with the Top 150 sometime Friday.

Top 75 SPs for 2H
PITCHER TM IP ERA WHIP K-BB PITCH+
1 Tarik Skubal DET 121 2.23 0.83 30% 121
2 Paul Skenes PIT 121 2.01 0.93 22% 117
3 Zack Wheeler PHI 122 2.36 0.86 27% 121
4 Garrett Crochet BOS 129.1 2.23 1.04 25% 110
5 Hunter Brown HOU 115 2.43 0.96 23% 107
6 Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD 104.1 2.59 1.04 19% 107
7 Jacob deGrom TEX 112.1 2.32 0.91 21% 121
8 Max Fried NYY 122 2.43 1.01 18% 114
9 Carlos Rodón NYY 119.2 3.08 1.00 20% 101
10 Spencer Strider ATL 61.2 3.94 1.17 20% 92
11 Logan Gilbert SEA 61 3.39 1.05 29% 111
12 Joe Ryan MIN 109.1 2.72 0.91 23% 105
13 Bryan Woo SEA 114.2 2.75 0.93 20% 111
14 George Kirby SEA 54 4.50 1.15 20% 108
15 Framber Valdez HOU 121 2.75 1.12 17% 112
16 Logan Webb SFG 125.2 2.94 1.17 22% 113
17 Robbie Ray SFG 119 2.65 1.08 18% 93
18 Freddy Peralta MIL 111.2 2.66 1.06 18% 105
19 Nick Pivetta SDP 109.1 2.88 1.02 21% 108
20 Cristopher Sánchez PHI 115 2.50 1.14 19% 114
21 Tyler Glasnow LAD 23 3.52 1.22 14% 90
22 Nathan Eovaldi TEX 91 1.58 0.85 23% 105
23 MacKenzie Gore WAS 110.1 3.02 1.20 23% 102
24 Sonny Gray STL 108 3.50 1.08 23% 101
25 Jacob Misiorowski MIL 25.2 2.81 0.90 22% 128
26 Dylan Cease SDP 103.1 4.88 1.33 20% 108
27 Kris Bubic KCR 108.2 2.48 1.16 18% 102
28 Kodai Senga NYM 77.2 1.39 1.13 13% 95
29 Shota Imanaga CHC 68 2.65 0.93 12% 105
30 Ranger Suárez PHI 83.2 2.15 1.06 17% 106
31 Matthew Boyd CHC 111.2 2.34 1.03 18% 99
32 Nick Lodolo CIN 106.2 3.38 1.11 17% 99
33 Ryan Pepiot TBR 114.1 3.38 1.15 16% 109
34 Seth Lugo KCR 101 2.67 1.08 14% 91
35 Jesús Luzardo PHI 104.1 4.14 1.41 19% 108
36 Chase Burns CIN 16 6.19 1.63 22% 118
37 Merrill Kelly 켈리 ARI 116 3.34 1.05 17% 97
38 Casey Mize DET 88.2 3.15 1.22 15% 103
39 Jack Flaherty DET 100.2 4.65 1.24 20% 99
40 Reese Olson DET 58 2.95 1.24 14% 97
41 Eury Pérez MIA 34 3.18 0.91 18% 107
42 Brandon Woodruff MIL 10.1 2.61 0.68 47% 111
43 Drew Rasmussen TBR 91.1 2.86 1.03 15% 109
44 Trevor Rogers BAL 35.1 1.53 0.82 16% 96
45 Andrew Abbott CIN 91.1 2.07 1.08 16% 96
46 Will Warren NYY 95.1 4.63 1.42 16% 103
47 Noah Cameron KCR 70 2.31 1.00 13% 100
48 Michael Soroka WAS 67.1 5.35 1.16 19% 93
49 Luis Castillo SEA 108.1 3.41 1.24 13% 102
50 Shane Baz TBR 110 4.17 1.25 15% 108
51 Ryne Nelson ARI 78.1 3.68 1.07 13% 106
52 Lucas Giolito BOS 72.1 3.36 1.23 15% 94
53 Yusei Kikuchi LAA 113 3.11 1.37 14% 103
54 Kevin Gausman TOR 109.2 4.19 1.16 16% 104
55 Sean Manaea NYM 3.1 2.70 1.50 47% 124
56 Jacob Lopez ATH 55.2 4.20 1.33 19% 91
57 Cam Schlittler NYY 5.1 5.06 1.13 24% 100
58 Grant Holmes ATL 105 3.77 1.30 16% 94
59 José Berríos TOR 115.1 3.75 1.24 12% 93
60 Mitch Keller PIT 119 3.48 1.14 13% 97
61 Matthew Liberatore STL 100.1 4.13 1.25 14% 98
62 Chris Bassitt TOR 107 4.12 1.35 16% 99
63 Brandon Walter HOU 40.2 3.98 1.01 23% 100
64 Zack Littell TBR 116.1 3.56 1.08 14% 94
65 David Peterson NYM 109 3.06 1.24 12% 95
66 Clayton Kershaw LAD 50.2 3.38 1.24 10% 94
67 Edward Cabrera MIA 82.1 3.61 1.26 16% 107
68 Tanner Bibee CLE 109 4.29 1.24 14% 100
69 Yu Darvish SDP 8.1 6.48 1.68 3% 82
70 Clay Holmes NYM 103.1 3.31 1.26 10% 103
71 Gavin Williams CLE 97.1 3.70 1.43 9% 94
72 Joe Boyle TBR 14 1.29 0.71 19% 89
73 Janson Junk MIA 50.1 2.68 0.99 17% 110
74 Richard Fitts BOS 33.2 4.28 1.22 13% 104
75 Michael Wacha KCR 106 3.74 1.27 11% 100

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1434 – Paul’s 2nd Half SP Rankings

by
July 17, 2025

7/17/25

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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PATREON

SPs OF INTEREST FROM PAUL’S RANKINGS

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