Author Archive: Paul Sporer

The Sleeper and the Bust 9/8/2015 – Early Top 10 SPs Lists for 2016

Episode 274

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris talk about Josh Tomlin, Rick Porcello, Drew Smyly, J.A. Happ, Ian Kennedy, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Corey Seager before getting into their topic of the day: top 10 SPs for 2016. Any glaring omissions from either top 10? Feel free to put your top 10 in the comments.

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01:17:12

The Sleeper and the Bust 9/3/2015 – Innings Limits

Episode 273

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris talk Corey Seager, Ryan Zimmerman, Michael Conforto, Didi Gregorius, and Jay Bruce. The main topic centers around IP limits for young starters and we find out how Eno is handling: Noah Syndergaard, Raisel Iglesias, Carlos Martinez, Lance McCullers, Taijuan Walker, Joe Ross, and Luis Severino

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01:05:53

Innings Limit Updates – Danger Zone & Already Over

Continuing from yesterday, here are updates on key young arms facing potential innings limits in September.

Danger Zone
Player Age 2015 IP Last Yr Diff Last Yr+20% +20% Diff
Carlos Rodon* 22 129 123 0 148 -19
Robbie Ray 23 138 129 10 154 -16
Anthony DeSclafani 25 150 135 15 162 -12
Noah Syndergaard 22 152 133 19 160 -8
Luis Severino 21 128 113 15 136 -7
Michael Lorenzen 23 138 121 18 145 -7
Joe Ross 22 143 122 21 146 -3
Mike Foltynewicz 23 143 121 22 146 -2
Taijuan Walker 22 153 129 24 155 -2
Mike Montgomery 25 149 126 23 151 -2
*NCAA IP incl. in last year figures

These guys are all at or above their 2014 workload so teams could pull the plug at any time from here until the end. Some of them don’t have any fantasy relevance so I’m not really going to dive into Lorenzen, Foltynewicz, or Montgomery. The others range from star-level with the way their pitching so far to useful in only-league formats.

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Innings Limit Updates – Plenty Left

The biggest question in fantasy this September isn’t “who are the must-get call ups”, but rather “how many more IP does Pitcher X have left?” This is because many of the potentially high-impact call ups are already up and producing so barring substantial injuries, there just isn’t a lot of room for September additions to make a massive impact. Meanwhile several of those aforementioned high-impact prospects who might’ve been call ups a couple years back are now several months into their MLB careers after getting the call this summer and sticking.

Let’s take a look at where the youngsters of note are at this point in the season and try to get a read on how much they might have left in the tank. The general rule of thumb that Eno and I adhere to is 20% over your workload from the previous season. There is no set ideal for all pitchers, but 20% is usually what teams will give a young arm and then take it beyond that in a case-by-case basis.

We will start with the guys who won’t come close to the +20% threshold and thus shouldn’t be in grave danger for an innings limit cutting their season short:

Plenty Left per +20%
Player Age 2015 IP Last Yr Diff Last Yr+20% +20% Diff
Yordano Ventura 24 130 208 -79 250 -120
Drew Hutchison 24 143 185 -46 222 -83
Kyle Hendricks 25 147 183 -36 220 -72
Alex Wood 24 154 180 -26 216 -62
Andrew Heaney 24 151 167 -16 200 -49
Danny Salazar 25 157 171 -13 205 -48
Aaron Nola* 22 159 172 -13 206 -47
Matt Wisler 22 136 147 -11 176 -40
Henry Owens 22 151 159 -8 191 -40
Taylor Jungmann 25 150 154 -4 184 -34
*NCAA IP incl. in last year figures

Keep in mind that the idea of “plenty left” is relative to the +20% threshold. The team may have something else to say about it, so let’s dig in and see what we can find regarding potential limits for some of these guys.

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The Sleeper and the Bust 9/1/2015 – September Call-Ups Pouring In (Sort of)

Episode 272

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris dive into some of the September call-ups who could be worthwhile in fantasy leagues such as Javier Baez, Hector Olivera, Dalton Pompey, Brandon Drury, Kennys Vargas, Frankie Montas and others. Which of the three OF trades from last night has the biggest impact: Austin Jackson, Justin Ruggiano, or Alejandro De Aza? They finish with some talk about Jake Arrieta’s transformation from bust to ace. (Yes, ace.)

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01:05:53

The Sleeper and the Bust 8/30/2015 – Sputtering Studs

Episode 271

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Jason Collette go with a Sunday Freestyle bouncing from team-to-team, player-to-player discussing the likes of Edwin Encarnacion, Nelson Cruz, Max Scherzer, Felix Hernandez, Stephen Strasburg, Jeff Samardzija, Mike Zunino, Stephen Piscotty, Miguel Cabrera, Khris & Chris Davis, among others.

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01:01:58

The Sleeper and the Bust 8/27/2015 – September Call-Ups

Episode 270

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris discuss the potential call-up status for some big time prospects like Corey Seager, Tyler Glasnow, Jose Berrios, Max Kepler, and A.J. Reed among others. Then they judge some hot Augusts and determine how much staying they have including guys like: Jackie Bradley Jr., Cameron Rupp, Franklin Gutierrez, Nick Castellanos.

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01:12:35

Scanning Minor League Leaderboards for Potential September Impact, Part 2 (Speed)

Yesterday I offered up five potential September call-ups who could be substantial power boosts to your lineup if they are indeed called up and find a measure of playing time. Today I’m doing the same thing with some speedsters. While home runs are likely the most important category in fantasy baseball as they impact everything but speed, stolen bases often offer the best route to multiple points in a short timeframe.

This isn’t always the case as your league standings may have stratified in a way where you’re 10+ SBs from even the first point, but in many others that number of stolen bases could be worth three or four points. Expecting 10+ SBs from any one of these players is likely to result in disappointment as just eight players have had a 10+ SB September since 2012, but adding 6 or 7 to your count from an unexpected source can pay real dividends.

Here are five speedy players who might be ready to deliver just that in September:

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Scanning Minor League Leaderboards for Potential September Impact

We’re on the cusp of September call-ups when rosters expand to 40 guys and a bevy of relative unknowns flood the league. Given the influx of players, it’s hard for even the most alluring of these call-ups to be guaranteed a substantial amount of playing time, but a fast start can help get their name penciled in more regularly as we hit the homestretch of the 2015 season (by the way, how are we almost in September?). It’s been a banner year for rookies coming up and making an impact which actually makes call-up season a little tougher in terms of identifying guys who could really help.

Everyone is still hoping to see Corey Seager, but the playing time issues that have been present in LA all year haven’t exactly cleared up with the emergence of Enrique Hernandez and the addition of Chase Utley into the mix. Plus, at this point Seager is stashed so he’s likely not even be available to you even if we thought he had a bead on significant time. Instead of perusing the top prospect lists, I went through the leaderboards of the upper minor leagues (Triple- and Double-A) looking for guys who could be primed to give us that boost in the standings in the season’s final month.

Some of these guys are in fact top prospects themselves, but others are off-the-radar prospects or journeyman-types who we might not expect a lot from generally speaking, but the opportunity could be there for them to parlay their big minor league season into some major league success. I’m looking specifically for power and speed assets here with the former coming today and the latter coming later this week.

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The Sleeper and the Bust 8/25/2015 – Combo Outfielders

Episode 269

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris discuss some hot hitters, emerging closers, and interesting starters including, but not limited to: A.J. Pollock, Gregory Polanco, Rusney Castillo, Shawn Tolleson, Roberto Osuna, Ken Giles, Kris Medlen, and Matt Cain.

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