Scanning Minor League Leaderboards for Potential September Impact, Part 2 (Speed)

Yesterday I offered up five potential September call-ups who could be substantial power boosts to your lineup if they are indeed called up and find a measure of playing time. Today I’m doing the same thing with some speedsters. While home runs are likely the most important category in fantasy baseball as they impact everything but speed, stolen bases often offer the best route to multiple points in a short timeframe.

This isn’t always the case as your league standings may have stratified in a way where you’re 10+ SBs from even the first point, but in many others that number of stolen bases could be worth three or four points. Expecting 10+ SBs from any one of these players is likely to result in disappointment as just eight players have had a 10+ SB September since 2012, but adding 6 or 7 to your count from an unexpected source can pay real dividends.

Here are five speedy players who might be ready to deliver just that in September:

SPEED

Micah Johnson (2B, CWS) – 26 SBs and 81% success rate at Triple-A Charlotte*

*he had 17 PA at the team’s rookie complex in Arizona, but didn’t attempt any steals.

Remember him? He was the guy you over-drafted this spring in hopes of a huge SB total. In fairness, it wasn’t totally illogical to go after Johnson as he had a clear path to playing time at second base and looked like a burner capable of making a major league impact. The 84 SBs from 2013 were intoxicating. He fell to 22 in 2014 with a weak success rate (63%), but injuries played a significant role and even cut his season short after just 102 games. Even with the 2014 effort on his ledger, Johnson had a 74% success rate in swiping 125 bases over three seasons coming into this year.

An uninspiring 83 PA to open the season resulted in a demotion for Johnson and spoiled his chances at a big rookie campaign. He hit a solid .270 with a .333 OBP, but it was entirely punchless with just a .297 SLG and he wasn’t supplementing the OBP with stolen bases and essentially turning singles and walks into doubles as he was just 2-for-5 in stolen base attempts. Weak defense that was clearly hampering the team’s pitchers (and it wasn’t just Johnson) made the demotion even easier.

Why Pick Him Up? – He was just hitting his stride when a hamstring injury sidelined him for nearly a month. He returned on the 20th and played five games for the Rookie League team before rejoining his Triple-A teammates on Wednesday night. He had a huge July: .378/.427/.613 with 11 SBs in 125 PA which followed a June that was more in line with what we might get on the high end in September: .295/.339/.393 with 12 SBs in 123 PA.

Carlos Sanchez’s bat hasn’t done anything to block out Johnson from playing time (68 wRC+), but his exemplary defense could make full-time burn tough for Johnson. Thankfully his speed can play in short bursts, even in he just subs in for a PA or two in some games or pinch-runs late.

 

Alen Hanson (2B, PIT) – 31 SBs in Triple-A Indianapolis

This one would’ve been a lot better before Pittsburgh started healing, but with Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer back in addition to Jung-ho Kang’s emergence, time will be sparse for any newcomers to the Pirates. Hanson’s prospect star has dimmed in recent years after busting onto the prospect scene at large in 2013. His .909 OPS with 35 SBs in 558 PA as a 19-year old in A-ball landed him on all the major prospects.

He came back to earth in 2013 and hasn’t been able to reach such heights again with season OPS totals of .755, .768, and .709 this year, but he has consistently been young for his level so maybe he just needs some time to catch. He is still just 22 years old. While the batting output has waned since ’12, the speed hasn’t gone anywhere. In the subsequent seasons, he has stolen 30, 25, and 31 bases with double-digit triples totals each season, too, for a total of 36.

Why Pick Him Up? – This is a former big time prospect who is suffering from prospect fatigue and so he’s pretty underrated at this point. Unfortunately, it’d likely require an injury to get any sort of substantive playing time, but if up and playing, he more than any other on this list could have an electric across-the-board September.

 

Mallex Smith (OF, ATL) – 23 SBs in Double-A and 27 SBs in Triple-A (in near-equal samples)

There are two Braves on this list. This is one we’d all like to see called up because he could be electric for the month. However, he’s not on the 40-man roster so he’s far from a sure bet while the other is all-but-guaranteed to return (he was just sent out after being with the club for a while). Smith came over in the Justin Upton deal this winter and put together a decent season across two levels for his new club.

The speed was prominently on display at both levels with 7 3Bs in addition to his 50 SBs. He has a .311/.370/.390 line between the two levels and his solid 8% BB rate stands out. It’s actually off of his 11% career mark, but I’d expect it to fade as he ascends toward the majors. Holding the 8% rate as a major leaguer would be really nice and give him plenty of extra base-stealing opportunities.

Why Pick Him Up? – He could be really good if he somehow did get called up. It’s a longer shot than some of the others because of the 40-man situation, but he could be a batting average sparkplug for a team in addition to the speed on the high-end. Even if he doesn’t get a call for ’15, keep him on your radar as a speed demon in ’16.

 

Eury Perez (OF, ATL) – 22 SBs in Triple-A Gwinnett and 3 SBs with Atlanta

Perez was actually just sent back to Triple-A after a decent stay with the team wherein he sputtered to a 78 wRC+ in 133 PA, but mostly because he is completely devoid of power. The.269 AVG and .331 OBP weren’t all that bad, but a .303 SLG doesn’t cut it. He was 3-for-4 on the bases. I’m sure he’ll be back up next week.

Why Pick Him Up? – The Braves have an outfield they’d like to run out there for all of September, but the injury histories of Nick Swisher and Cameron Maybin may have other plans. Perez has amassed 296 SBs in the minors at a clip of 56 per 600 PA so the speed is there.

 

Leury Garcia (MI, CWS) – 30 SBs in Triple-A Charlotte

He’s the poor man’s Johnson. I wanted to put Tim Anderson in this spot because the 2013 first rounder could be really exciting, but he’s not on the 40-man and Kiley had his ETA as 2017. We’ve seen 272 PA in the majors from Garcia and it hasn’t been good. In fact, that’s a giant understatement. It’s been unbelievably bad. He has a 15 wRC+. In the grand scheme of things, it is a small sample size of work, but we are still talking about nearly half a season of playing time. At any rate, he does have an 18-for-21 success rate on the base paths in that time.

Why Pick Him Up? – You’re desperate for any speed and you play in an AL-only league. Perhaps even an AL-Central-Only league.





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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Alice Cooper
8 years ago

I’m not sure that Pittsburgh will promote Hanson until Indy’s season is over, if at all