Paul’s in today for Brad!
Agenda
Are we ageist as a fantasy community? Of course we are.
Episode 255
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!
In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris analyze the two big trades of the day and then talk about the rumors w/Carlos Carrasco. They check in on the performances of Ubaldo Jimenez, Masahiro Tanaka, Yunel Escobar, Chris Tillman, and R.A. Dickey. They finish by discussing the SP ranks at RG.
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We made it to the finish line! Our final position in the midseason rankings hits on the most volatile aspect of our beloved game: the relievers. There’s only one save that can be awarded in any single game so opportunity is obviously extremely important, but damn-near impossible to predict. Manager whim and supporting cast (hitters, defense, and starting pitchers) are two variables that greatly impact said opportunity and while we can foster our best guesses, it’s still difficult to ever know. There’s a reason that the “draft skills, not roles” adage coined by Ron Shandler has become so popular with relievers specifically.
Once again, the Bullpen Report crew has joined the party to rank the relievers with Dan & myself both adding ours in, too. Alan, Darren, Colin, and Ben round out the group for six sets of rankings. Want to see how guys have shifted since the June update? Find those ranks here.
For this update, Paul ranked 55 arms, Alan, Colin, and Ben did 50 apiece, Darren did 48, and Dan had 53. Guys +1 of those figures constitute an “unranked”.
If you just started following the baseball season right now with no intimate knowledge of how every player’s current numbers were accumulated, you’d think Ian Kinsler was having a perfectly reasonable season. There’s been a power-for-on-base exchange, but he’s actually a point higher in OPS from last year at .728 through 398 PA so far. His 104 wRC+ is very much in line with the 100, 105, and 102 of the previous three years.
Alas, most have you have been following the season closely and know that he went nearly two full months without a home run before snapping the skid on May 30th. It took another 21 games and 90 PA for his second, but then just 11 games for the third and a mere six games separating that one and both his fourth and fifth, which were clubbed in the same game on Monday night. He’s still only on pace for nine homers which would tie his career-low, set in just 103 games, but his last 40 games suggest he’s back to being the teens-level home run hitter of the last three seasons.
Whenever a stark turn comes for a player, the first question is always “what’s different?”
Episode 254
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!
In this episode, Paul Sporer and Jason Collette bring you the Sunday episode on a Tuesday episode. It’s more of a free-form episode where we peruse the boxscores for some interesting guys. It’s still fantastic, just not as scheduled out as the other episodes.
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We made it to the mound. After touring the diamond for the position players, we finally reach the starting pitchers for our midseason rankings. I’m not sure any rankings are more disparate than pitching rankings. There aren’t too many ways to interpret Paul Goldschmidt’s success. He’s raking and just all-around dominant. Dallas Keuchel is doing the pitching equivalent of raking, but he isn’t universally seen as a top-flight, no-questions-asked pitcher in the fantasy baseball world just yet. Keuchel might not be the best example as he didn’t fall further than 12th in any of the four ranking sets (with a peak of 6), but what about somebody like Carlos Martinez?
He is pitching brilliantly and showing why he was so heralded as a prospect coming up with the Cardinals, but as of July 21st he already has a career-high 111.3 innings (99 last year, 104 in the minors back in 2012 as a previous career-high) and they’ve already shown how much they value protecting him by keeping him in the bullpen for virtually all of his 2013 MLB time and for 50 of his 57 MLB appearances last year. How far will they take him in the regular season?
Episode 253
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!
In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris bring you the Tuesday episode on a special Monday evening episode. The Sunday episode was going to be a special Monday episode, but it has now become a special Tuesday episode that will still feature Jason Collette so look for that tomorrow.
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Our midseason rankings update continues. We have the outfield today, the starting pitchers tomorrow, and then wrapping it up with the reliever on Wednesday.
This is one of the most interesting positions just by the sheer volume of it. The fantasy community at large seems to consistently overrate the depth of the position, confusing the quantity for quality. Most leagues use five outfielders right out of the gate, but then you have to consider the OF-eligibles being used at other fielding positions as well as the UT/DH position. I don’t think there are any easy answers with the slotting of these guys after Trout, Harper, & McCutchen as the top three in some fashion. From there, we all seem to go in different directions creating some interesting totals.
For this update, you will have the rankings from me, Zach Sanders, Jeff Zimmerman, and Dan Schwartz. Mike Podhorzer is currently on vacation. A 121 from me is essentially an unranked, it’s 95 for Zach, 108 for Jeff, and 90 for Dan.
As we fire up the second half – albeit an inequitable one with teams averaging just 73 games left (three teams as high as 76) – we certainly feel like we know some new things. It certainly feels like the emergence of Manny Machado and Nolan Arenado is real. They’ve had the talent and pedigree while showing glimpses of this greatness at the big league level and this year they appear to have busted out. That said, it is still just some 80-odd games out of 377 for Machado and 329 for Arenado so they are hardly guaranteed to stay at this level.
We’re always looking for value and surplus in this game. During draft season, Arenado was being picked as a top 50 pick because many thought he could produce as a top 20 pick (he has). Machado was drafted as a top 120 pick with the idea that he could become a top 50 pick (how’s 7th overall?). We don’t have another draft season to shuffle the deck at the All-Star break which is why I’m more concerned with the other end today, the guys who are struggling relative to their established track record.
While shortstop has been a wasteland, third base has been the infield oasis. Third base has turned out to be remarkably rich this year with some established guys taking another step forward and a strong core of young guys jumping a couple levels and arriving ahead of schedule.
