Rotographs Midseason Rankings – Third Base
While shortstop has been a wasteland, third base has been the infield oasis. Third base has turned out to be remarkably rich this year with some established guys taking another step forward and a strong core of young guys jumping a couple levels and arriving ahead of schedule.
For this update, you will have the rankings from me, Zach Sanders, Jeff Zimmerman, and Dan Schwartz. Mike Podhorzer is currently on vacation.
Other positions:
| Rank | Player | Team | League | Paul | Zach | Jeff | Dan | AVG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Donaldson | Blue Jays | AL | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.8 | |
| 2 | Todd Frazier | Reds | NL | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2.5 | |
| 3 | Manny Machado | Orioles | AL | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3.3 | |
| 4 | Nolan Arenado | Rockies | NL | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3.8 | |
| 5 | Kris Bryant | Cubs | NL | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3.8 | |
| 6 | Chris Davis | Orioles | AL | 6 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 6.8 | |
| 7 | Kyle Seager | Mariners | AL | 8 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 8.3 | |
| 8 | Alex Rodriguez | Yankees | AL | 7 | 7 | 15 | 9 | 9.5 | |
| 9 | Evan Longoria | Rays | AL | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9.5 | |
| 10 | Matt Carpenter | Cardinals | NL | 12 | 13 | 19 | 6 | 12.5 | |
| 11 | Adrian Beltre | Rangers | AL | 11 | 29 | 7 | 8 | 13.8 | |
| 12 | Maikel Franco | Phillies | NL | 15 | 10 | 12 | 19 | 14.0 | |
| 13 | Xander Bogaerts | Red Sox | AL | 10 | 11 | 20 | 16 | 14.3 | |
| 14 | Carlos Santana | Indians | AL | 17 | 23 | 9 | 13 | 15.5 | |
| 15 | Pablo Sandoval | Red Sox | AL | 18 | 16 | 17 | 14 | 16.3 | |
| 16 | Miguel Cabrera | Tigers | AL | 19 | 18 | 14 | 17 | 17.0 | |
| 17 | Mike Moustakas | Royals | AL | 22 | 14 | 18 | 24 | 19.5 | |
| 18 | Justin Turner | Dodgers | NL | 14 | 15 | 32 | 18 | 19.8 | |
| 19 | Anthony Rendon | Nationals | NL | 13 | 12 | 43 | 12 | 20.0 | |
| 20 | Pedro Alvarez | Pirates | NL | 20 | 25 | 16 | 23 | 21.0 | |
| 21 | Trevor Plouffe | Twins | AL | 21 | 22 | 22 | 20 | 21.3 | |
| 22 | Miguel Sano | Twins | AL | 16 | 20 | 24 | 27 | 21.8 | |
| 23 | Yasmany Tomas | Diamondbacks | NL | 27 | 27 | 11 | 31 | 24.0 | |
| 24 | Matt Duffy | Giants | NL | 23 | 17 | 29 | 29 | 24.5 | |
| 25 | Yunel Escobar | Nationals | NL | 26 | 26 | 26 | 21 | 24.8 | |
| 26 | Jung-ho Kang | Pirates | NL | 24 | 19 | 30 | 32 | 26.3 | |
| 27 | Marcus Semien | Athletics | AL | 36 | 21 | 23 | 28 | 27.0 | |
| 28 | Jimmy Paredes | Orioles | AL | 37 | 31 | 21 | 22 | 27.8 | |
| 29 | Josh Harrison | Pirates | NL | 42 | 24 | 35 | 15 | 29.0 | |
| 30 | Chase Headley | Yankees | AL | 35 | 38 | 13 | 36 | 30.5 | |
| 31 | Ryan Zimmerman | Nationals | NL | 34 | 33 | 33 | 26 | 31.5 | |
| 32 | Aramis Ramirez | Brewers | NL | 29 | 34 | 39 | 25 | 31.8 | |
| 33 | Martin Prado | Marlins | NL | 38 | 28 | 28 | 33 | 31.8 | |
| 34 | Brett Lawrie | Athletics | AL | 25 | 40 | 31 | 37 | 33.3 | |
| 35 | Daniel Murphy | Mets | NL | 28 | 39 | 25 | 44 | 34.0 | |
| 36 | Luis Valbuena | Astros | AL | 31 | 35 | 41 | 30 | 34.3 | |
| 37 | Brock Holt | Red Sox | AL | 30 | 36 | 36 | 39 | 35.3 | |
| 38 | Nick Castellanos | Tigers | AL | 33 | 43 | 27 | 44 | 36.8 | |
| 39 | Jake Lamb | Diamondbacks | NL | 41 | 32 | 42 | 34 | 37.3 | |
| 40 | David Freese | Angels | AL | 46 | 30 | 34 | 40 | 37.5 | |
| 41 | Alex Guerrero | Dodgers | NL | 39 | 42 | 49 | 35 | 41.3 | |
| 42 | Kelly Johnson | Braves | NL | 32 | 43 | 49 | 44 | 42.0 | |
| 43 | Mark Reynolds | Cardinals | NL | 47 | 43 | 37 | 42 | 42.3 | |
| 44 | Yangervis Solarte | Padres | NL | 40 | 43 | 44 | 44 | 42.8 | |
| 45 | Giovanny Urshela | Indians | AL | 43 | 37 | 48 | 44 | 43.0 | |
| 46 | David Wright | Mets | NL | 49 | 43 | 38 | 43 | 43.3 | |
| 47 | Joey Gallo | Rangers | AL | 44 | 43 | 49 | 38 | 43.5 | |
| 48 | Cody Asche | Phillies | NL | 51 | 41 | 40 | 44 | 44.0 | |
| 49 | Will Middlebrooks | Padres | NL | 48 | 43 | 49 | 41 | 45.3 | |
| 50 | Juan Uribe | Braves | NL | 45 | 43 | 49 | 44 | 45.3 | |
| 51 | Chris Johnson | Braves | NL | 51 | 43 | 45 | 44 | 45.8 | |
| 52 | Casey McGehee | Giants | NL | 51 | 43 | 46 | 44 | 46.0 | |
| 53 | Cory Spangenberg | Padres | NL | 51 | 43 | 47 | 44 | 46.3 | |
| 54 | Hector Olivera | Dodgers | NL | 50 | 43 | 49 | 44 | 46.5 |
Justin Turner….really Jeff? REALLY?
Is a 32 ranking REALLY that surprising? Looking over the list from Turner on through the 30’s, aren’t they all pretty much pick’ems?
Jeff’s ranks are always based upon the projections. Turner is a classic case where the projections will see years of being a light hitting utility infielder outweighing the last calendar year of vastly increased power/FB%/LD%.
Conversely you’ll see Jeff has Beltre 7th because the projections see Beltre’s last decade of being awesome as much more predictive than the past 3.5 months.
IMO projections are at their worst when it comes to older player breakouts and veterans succumbing to father time. Case in point here.
Agreed, although it’s also helpful to have a healthy dose of agnostic analysis and projection thrown in with the eye-test results from the other voters.
The projections actually aren’t bad for Turner, but not in the roto categories per se and also playing time is a bit limited due to Callaspo for some reason getting starts as well as Olivero looming..
Turner has seemed awfully low in each of these rankings. I can understand it a bit at 3B, 1 through 20 on this list could easily be 3B1 on a team, but I would find it awfully hard to roster Adrian Beltre or even Carlos Santana (in non-OBP leagues) over Turner. Certainly understand the hesitancy to believe in Turner’s breakout but I’d have an easier time believing in his breakout than I would believing Adrian Beltre will remember how to be Adrian Beltre again.
Beltre’s walk rate has plummeted, he’s making the same amount of contact as last year but the quality of contact is terrible and he has zero pop post-injury (which he was rushed back from).
Seems like there are single extreme outliers (Chase Headley #13?!) in these rankings swaying the overall rankings. Wouldn’t mind seeing the extreme outliers (+/- 15 spots from the mean of the other 3) dropped and the numbers re-averaged.
Rendon: “Jeff, you sunk my battleship!”
Is there any hope for a Sandoval rebound? What is going on with him this season? He seems almost droppable at this point.
Really interesting to see how much this list differs from this one: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/midseason-third-base-rankings/#more-75602. Franco got the hearing on this list that he didn’t get on the other one, but Sano’s much lower–I’d be interested to hear why.
Paul, any chance these can get reviewed on Sleeper & Bust?
And I guess Jeff agrees, like many owners (two thumbs pointing to this guy), that Rendon is gone fishin’.
Ugh. Every single one of the Top 20 is rostered in my 10 teamer and I am stuck with Moustakas with no replacement in sight. Having a hard time getting anyone to bite on a trade either. I’m in 2nd and could use the push in counting stats.
You’d think with the position being so deep other owners would be more willing to wheel and deal… nope
Much better than Barr’s barred rankings
What league is Miggy still 3b eligible in?
Yahoo
Jeff,
Could you please explain your Turner ranking? I understand the wisdom of the projections, I really do. But adhering to anything too stringently seems unwise, in baseball and in life.
In the past TWO calendar years, Turner is slashing 320/382/500. Granted this is in a little under 700 PA but they are not Adam Lind type PAs, as in they have not been strictly selected to accommodate any platoon disadvantages. Instead of mentally adjusting his value downwards for the lack of playing time, I would actually be inclined to adjust upwardly, as it has been demonstrated that inconsistent playing time offers a penalty similar to that of the the DH penalty. In a little more than a season’s worth of PA he has also managed to hit 20HR and accrue 86R/92RBI, numbers which seem reasonable to continue given his placement in the batting order and the hitters surrounding him.
O yea, one more thing,
2009-2012 Hard hit percentage ~20.5%
2013-2015 Hard hit percentage ~34.0%
Forgive me. This is my new favorite stat.