Trusting the Track Record

As we fire up the second half – albeit an inequitable one with teams averaging just 73 games left (three teams as high as 76) – we certainly feel like we know some new things. It certainly feels like the emergence of Manny Machado and Nolan Arenado is real. They’ve had the talent and pedigree while showing glimpses of this greatness at the big league level and this year they appear to have busted out. That said, it is still just some 80-odd games out of 377 for Machado and 329 for Arenado so they are hardly guaranteed to stay at this level.

We’re always looking for value and surplus in this game. During draft season, Arenado was being picked as a top 50 pick because many thought he could produce as a top 20 pick (he has). Machado was drafted as a top 120 pick with the idea that he could become a top 50 pick (how’s 7th overall?). We don’t have another draft season to shuffle the deck at the All-Star break which is why I’m more concerned with the other end today, the guys who are struggling relative to their established track record.

Even if you believe in Machado and Arenado, they are cost prohibitive at this point so we need to scour the waiver wire and trade market for our value. A good way to do that is to look for the opposite of Machado and Arenado, the guys who are playing terribly. Or at least well below their level. It may not seem like it when a player is at his worst, but guys with established track records are awfully good at finding their level, even when they are far from it – whether on the high or low end.

Here are a bunch of guys who have severely underperformed against expectations and compared to their established track records. Barring injury – reported or hidden – these guys should be markedly better the rest of the way:

Num Player Position 2015 wRC+ Career wRC+ ZIPS ROS wRC+ Car. Diff ZIPS Diff.
1 Yadier Molina C 89 100 106 11 17
2 Adam LaRoche 1B 96 112 111 16 15
3 Mike Napoli 1B 79 124 106 45 27
4 Chris Carter 1B 92 110 110 18 18
5 Robinson Cano 2B 85 125 115 40 30
6 Starlin Castro SS 62 94 94 32 32
7 Ian Desmond SS 61 100 96 39 35
8 Pablo Sandoval 3B 89 119 106 30 17
9 Chase Headley 3B 89 112 105 23 16
10 Adrian Beltre 3B 81 114 111 33 30
11 Carlos Gonzalez OF 93 118 110 25 17
12 Matt Kemp OF 90 125 108 35 18
13 Shin-Soo Choo OF 88 127 108 39 20
14 Melky Cabrera OF 76 100 103 24 27

It’s so easy to forget about anything that hasn’t happened in the 2015 season when it comes analyzing a player, but these first two-plus months are just a piece of the puzzle. The recency of the performance makes it seem like it should be the driving force, but even 300+ PA isn’t enough to overpower three times that or well over a 1000 in many cases accumulated prior to the season. It is of course a delicate balance.

Completely ignoring what we’ve seen will have you missing the boat on some real skill changes with guys, but overweighting it will have you looking foolish if you’ve given up on a proven performer or over-invested on someone playing over his head. How about our two future superstars?  

Num Player Position 2015 wRC+ Career wRC+ ZIPS ROS wRC+ Car. Diff ZIPS Diff.
1 Manny Machado 3B 145 113 123 -32 -22
2 Nolan Arenado 3B 131 104 110 -27 -21

They are both still projected to be above average players, but well off of their first half pace. It feels foolish to consider trading either given how instrumental they have been to your season thus far, but if you can get the returns of a 145 wRC+ player by trading Machado, you have to consider it as it’s very unlikely he remains at that level. For either of these two, you could definitely get a solid piece (vague, I know, but I’m thinking like a Brandon Belt-type), plus someone from the list of strugglers above, and maybe two of those guys in the right deal.

The phrase “buy-low” is constantly thrown around the fantasy community, but it’s often tied to guys who can’t really be had for anything resembling a “low” price. No one is selling Carlos Carrasco for any kind of discount right now. Sure, he has a 4.07 ERA, but everything else is on point. Buying low is getting in when it really stinks, when it’s actually tough to pull the trigger on acquiring someone because there aren’t underlying signs of forthcoming greatness, just an established track record and a reasonable expectation of health.





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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Redisappointed
8 years ago

I’ve had some good days. The day I got 31 strikeouts was nice. I enjoyed that. But the day I dropped Ian Desmond, it was like a weight being lifted from my weary shoulders. The sun shone brighter. The birds sang Bach. It was the best day I’ve ever had in fantasy baseball. He may play like an MVP for someone else now, and I’ll have to deal with that if he does, but for now I am comfortable in my doubt.

bsl
8 years ago
Reply to  Redisappointed

Same, but with Starlin Castro. felt so good to drop that $22 albatross
ignore what you paid, just drop him.

BuckoSama
8 years ago
Reply to  Redisappointed

Dropping my $19 David Wright is the best thing I ever did.