Trusting the Track Record
As we fire up the second half – albeit an inequitable one with teams averaging just 73 games left (three teams as high as 76) – we certainly feel like we know some new things. It certainly feels like the emergence of Manny Machado and Nolan Arenado is real. They’ve had the talent and pedigree while showing glimpses of this greatness at the big league level and this year they appear to have busted out. That said, it is still just some 80-odd games out of 377 for Machado and 329 for Arenado so they are hardly guaranteed to stay at this level.
We’re always looking for value and surplus in this game. During draft season, Arenado was being picked as a top 50 pick because many thought he could produce as a top 20 pick (he has). Machado was drafted as a top 120 pick with the idea that he could become a top 50 pick (how’s 7th overall?). We don’t have another draft season to shuffle the deck at the All-Star break which is why I’m more concerned with the other end today, the guys who are struggling relative to their established track record.
Even if you believe in Machado and Arenado, they are cost prohibitive at this point so we need to scour the waiver wire and trade market for our value. A good way to do that is to look for the opposite of Machado and Arenado, the guys who are playing terribly. Or at least well below their level. It may not seem like it when a player is at his worst, but guys with established track records are awfully good at finding their level, even when they are far from it – whether on the high or low end.
Here are a bunch of guys who have severely underperformed against expectations and compared to their established track records. Barring injury – reported or hidden – these guys should be markedly better the rest of the way:
| Num | Player | Position | 2015 wRC+ | Career wRC+ | ZIPS ROS wRC+ | Car. Diff | ZIPS Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yadier Molina | C | 89 | 100 | 106 | 11 | 17 |
| 2 | Adam LaRoche | 1B | 96 | 112 | 111 | 16 | 15 |
| 3 | Mike Napoli | 1B | 79 | 124 | 106 | 45 | 27 |
| 4 | Chris Carter | 1B | 92 | 110 | 110 | 18 | 18 |
| 5 | Robinson Cano | 2B | 85 | 125 | 115 | 40 | 30 |
| 6 | Starlin Castro | SS | 62 | 94 | 94 | 32 | 32 |
| 7 | Ian Desmond | SS | 61 | 100 | 96 | 39 | 35 |
| 8 | Pablo Sandoval | 3B | 89 | 119 | 106 | 30 | 17 |
| 9 | Chase Headley | 3B | 89 | 112 | 105 | 23 | 16 |
| 10 | Adrian Beltre | 3B | 81 | 114 | 111 | 33 | 30 |
| 11 | Carlos Gonzalez | OF | 93 | 118 | 110 | 25 | 17 |
| 12 | Matt Kemp | OF | 90 | 125 | 108 | 35 | 18 |
| 13 | Shin-Soo Choo | OF | 88 | 127 | 108 | 39 | 20 |
| 14 | Melky Cabrera | OF | 76 | 100 | 103 | 24 | 27 |
It’s so easy to forget about anything that hasn’t happened in the 2015 season when it comes analyzing a player, but these first two-plus months are just a piece of the puzzle. The recency of the performance makes it seem like it should be the driving force, but even 300+ PA isn’t enough to overpower three times that or well over a 1000 in many cases accumulated prior to the season. It is of course a delicate balance.
Completely ignoring what we’ve seen will have you missing the boat on some real skill changes with guys, but overweighting it will have you looking foolish if you’ve given up on a proven performer or over-invested on someone playing over his head. How about our two future superstars?
| Num | Player | Position | 2015 wRC+ | Career wRC+ | ZIPS ROS wRC+ | Car. Diff | ZIPS Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manny Machado | 3B | 145 | 113 | 123 | -32 | -22 |
| 2 | Nolan Arenado | 3B | 131 | 104 | 110 | -27 | -21 |
They are both still projected to be above average players, but well off of their first half pace. It feels foolish to consider trading either given how instrumental they have been to your season thus far, but if you can get the returns of a 145 wRC+ player by trading Machado, you have to consider it as it’s very unlikely he remains at that level. For either of these two, you could definitely get a solid piece (vague, I know, but I’m thinking like a Brandon Belt-type), plus someone from the list of strugglers above, and maybe two of those guys in the right deal.
The phrase “buy-low” is constantly thrown around the fantasy community, but it’s often tied to guys who can’t really be had for anything resembling a “low” price. No one is selling Carlos Carrasco for any kind of discount right now. Sure, he has a 4.07 ERA, but everything else is on point. Buying low is getting in when it really stinks, when it’s actually tough to pull the trigger on acquiring someone because there aren’t underlying signs of forthcoming greatness, just an established track record and a reasonable expectation of health.
I’ve had some good days. The day I got 31 strikeouts was nice. I enjoyed that. But the day I dropped Ian Desmond, it was like a weight being lifted from my weary shoulders. The sun shone brighter. The birds sang Bach. It was the best day I’ve ever had in fantasy baseball. He may play like an MVP for someone else now, and I’ll have to deal with that if he does, but for now I am comfortable in my doubt.
Same, but with Starlin Castro. felt so good to drop that $22 albatross
ignore what you paid, just drop him.
Dropping my $19 David Wright is the best thing I ever did.
I would’ve expected to see Yasiel Puig on this list. How did he miss?
He’s only ever been good for a few months. They were amazing months, granted, but he just doesn’t have the track record.
I kinda see it the other way in that he’s only ever been bad for one month. And not even a month… just 11 games this July. Injury is the main reason he wasn’t considered for this list, though.
He’s only played half of the available games so anyone making sweeping judgments off of his ’15 is asking for disappointment as far as I’m concerned. He is someone I’m targeting, though I’m not sure there’s any inherent discount bc of a 118 wRC+.
I think Puig qualifies to be listed here – sporting a 118 wRC+ against a 147 career mark.
I don’t see it as the same. He hasn’t played near the same games and the extent of his struggles are a whopping 11 games in July. He was great in other word so far this year. More importantly, he’s not available for anything resembling a discount.
great piece. thank you sir.
Sooo which ones are you targeting?
I bought Carrasco for Calhoun about a month ago. I’d say that was buying low. It’s probably selling high, as well, considering I’d been nervous about Calhoun maintaining his stats for some time.
Nice to see a list like this. I have one team with several well-regarded, yet relatively under-performing players like Puig, Desmond, Kemp and Encarnacion (114 wRC+ this year, 140-150 wRC+ from ’12 – ’14). All season long I’ve debated waiting for the rebound versus getting out while I still can.
Warning, humblebrag, but I acquired JD Martinez on June 1st when he was just a middling outfielder with average power. Greatest personal buy low in my many years of playing.
Paul – thanks so much for the content and for being so active in the comments section, it is appreciated. Do you think that Kemp could have a big second half? He’s still just 30, and he posted a 140 wRC+ as recently as last season. His ISOs in June and July are .200+, and he’s making really hard contact (37% on the season, including 40%+ in June and July).
I dunno, kid. He looks like a different player these days and not a good “different” as with Machado & Arenado.
Any chance you could elaborate?
He’s old and decrepid.
Thinking about offering Carlos Gomez + Murphy for Lorenzo Cain + Kendrick. I’m mainly worried that Gomez has been slowed by injuries all season, and it seems like Cain should provide similar or better numbers in R, RBI, SB the rest of the way, and make up for the lack of HR by hitting for more AVG. Am I off base here?
Kind of beside the point, but Gomez is $30 more than Cain, so this deal would massively benefit me going into next year. But I’m currently in first place by a couple of points and offense is a super tight race. Trying to balance winning now vs. next year… dynasty leagues are hard!
I worry that this selling low and buying high w/the principle pieces: Gomez & Cain.
Cain has actually found the DL more regularly than Gomez over the last three years w/four stays to Gomez’s one (this year’s).
If you look at it per PA, they are neck-and-neck in most of the counting categories w/Gomez holding a HR edge to Cain’s SB edge. Cain does hold a substantial AVG edge. For me, if Go-Go gets his wheels back, he makes up for the AVG loss because he’s matching/out-doing him in HR, RBI, R.
Cain is good, but this is far and away his best baseball and expecting it to continue at this level seems like a setup for disappointment. He needs to continue at his best pace ever to fend off Gomez who is on his tail despite being what would be classified by most as something of a disappointment. I’d rather have Gomez and Murphy here.
I’d be interested to see you add the caveat and column on age for these players. Historically, yes they have been great. However age can catches up to anyone.
Of those, Beltre is probably the only one old enough for a sharp age-related decline. Yadi has caught so his body has been through it, too, but he’s not that far off his production level in the first place so I’m not that worried about age there, either.
I get what you’re saying, but I figured it was a caveat the reader could add where they saw fit since everyone views age differently.
I’m going to nitpick just a little, then I’m going to concede your point.
1. La Roche is 35, near 36.
2. A player like Choo was (read that speed was half of his value) has a shorter shelf life. So yes, while not old for the earth, still old for baseball.
That being said, I appreciate your free content, ability to provide invaluable insight, and being responsive to debate.
Maybe I’m just reading the point of this article wrong, but as an Arenado owner, there is no way in Hades that I would trade him for a Belt type plus a player from the list. Unless the rest of my roster was just trash.
That’s definitely not the intent. Arenado and Machado are ancillary to the point. Belt was just a name, too.
The fact is, most people would be unwilling to deal either of the 3B when the smart play says you should. There’s very little chance of them remaining at this level for the rest of 2015 and yet their market value is such that you can get full value on their current numbers.
Maybe it’s Longo and Cano. And maybe you still wouldn’t make that trade. That’s fine. The names don’t really matter. It’s a thought exercise.
That’s a great strategy! If you enjoy losing your league. Belt seems to be hyped as a buy low every year. As previous comment says, there is no way in heck I’m giving up a young top 10 player for him.
Cool?
So would you give up a 15th round buxton for a 15th round puig? Prices go up two rounds per year. I already have a 11th round trout and 13th round springer and its tb instead of hr. I can only keep three so the puig move is to go all in this year. It seems like a no brainer to get a major leaguer vs a guy who has barely stayed healthy over the past year…
Yes, I would.
Would Kinsler be a similar target to the names on this list or is there a reason he did not make the cut?
Lucroy?
Is he worth dropping if you have a top-5 alternative? I’m not sure he has any real trade value (everyone thinks he’s still hurt) and it doesn’t really make sense to waste a roster spot on a second catcher, right?