There are over 30 starting pitchers on the disabled list right now. I tabbed about 29 of them as fantasy viable, while understanding that the viability ranges substantially from 10-team mixed to 12-team AL or NL only. The point is that the pool has taken a hit in the first 2.5 months, as it does every single year. We haven’t seen the spate of Tommy John surgeries that struck the league the past couple of years, but there are plenty of injuries that can be severe without being TJ. The piling up of injuries takes its toll on waiver wires everywhere and lowers our barrier for entry to tab a guy worthy of bidding.
In April, an exemplary start from someone available on the wire isn’t instantly going to draw attention. You might not have anyone you’re ready to cut to make for him and if a guy wasn’t worthy of being draft a week or two ago, one strong start isn’t likely to change that opinion. Now 2.5 months in, you’ve got high-strikeout middle relievers bridging the gap on your latest injuries and all of a sudden you’re making eyes at Jered Weaver because he has a two-start week.
First things first, don’t pick up Weaver. Five relievers have more strikeouts than Weaver’s 46: Dellin Betances (59), Andrew Miller (51), Seung Oh, Kyle Barraclough, and Brad Hand (47). Hand’s 35.7 IP is the high in that group and still less than half of Weaver’s 75.7. Beyond avoiding Weaver, you really have to be ready to act fast on pitchers. Magnitude takes on a bigger role at this stage in the season when we aren’t afforded the luxury of waiting for a reasonable sample. Truth be told, this act first, ask questions later model is just the new way to play, even early in the season. But as options dry up, decisions have to be even quicker.
This method will produce some duds. We’re using small samples and picking up guys who are still on the wire in June for a reason (or reasons), but if you’re going to find this year’s Cody Anderson (3.05 ERA in 91.3 IP after coming up on 6/21 last year) or Erasmo Ramirez (joined rotation in mid-May, but had 4.96 ERA at this time last year before finishing with a 3.17 in 110.7 IP), you have to be ready to pounce. Here are a few pounce-worthy arms who may still be on your wire depending on league size.
Read the rest of this entry »
