Author Archive: Paul Sporer

Checking in on Tommy John Returners

Waiver wires – like the southwest being obliterated by consistent triple-digit temperatures – are bone dry at this point. This is why every top-100 prospect who comes up gets obscenely bid up in FAAB proceedings just in case he’s ready to dominate immediately. Perhaps the ripest avenue for talent still left at this point is the disabled list, and specifically, pitchers on the mend. Let’s check in on three Tommy John returners working their way back and see if they can be our second-half saviors, especially as we seem to lose a top arm every day over the last couple of weeks.

Alex Cobb | Tampa Bay Rays

I’m starting with Cobb almost to just get him out of the way. I’ll state out front that I don’t draft TJ returners in their first year back (though I won’t completely ignore them on the wire at this point in the season). Not only are they rarely anywhere near as good as their peak, but even in those instances where they are really good, they frequently run into setbacks which often results in another DL stint (see also: Darvish, Yu this year and Fernandez, Jose last year). Cobb has all that and the fact that the Rays are notoriously deliberate with pitchers working against him.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 363 – Futures Game Preview

7/8/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

Futures Game Preview

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01:50:10

Adam Conley’s Third Time Through Issue

Adam Conley is having a pretty good season for a 26-year old in his first full MLB season. Adam Conley has looked great at points in this season, including 7.7 no-hit innings at Milwaukee in late-April. Adam Conley even brought a 2.59 June ERA into his final start of the month at Detroit. But Adam Conley has a problem. Well, two problems including that I won’t stop using his full name. Adam Conley can’t get through batting orders three times on consistent basis.

This was crystallized in his start at Detroit on June 28th. He only faced three guys for a third time, allowing a double, walk, and home run that finished off a five-run inning in which he relinquished his 3-0 lead. He had 62 pitches coming into the inning and left with 92. That’s right around his breaking point. He was better against Atlanta in his most recent outing, facing four guys for a third time and going strikeout, flyout, walk, and groundout. But situations like Detroit have been the norm for Conley this year.

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Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat – July 7th

Chat starts around 2:00 PM CT!

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 362 – Every Pitcher is Dead

7/6/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

Pitchers are dying

(We finished recording before the Matt Harvey to DL news)

Potential Replacements (Yahoo! roster rate)

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01:29:02

The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 361 – Rodney Traded; Unsettled Closers

7/1/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

Deep Dives:

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00:54:32

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat – June 30th

Great chat as always! Back at it again next week around 2 pm Central!

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 360 – #RockiesCorner

6/29/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

  • Yulieski Gourriel working out (9:00)
  • Erasmo Ramirez interest from LAD (17:00)

Deep Dives:

ROCKIES CORNER:

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01:19:24

Jake Arrieta’s Elevated Walk Rate

When looking at Jake Arrieta’s season thus far, it’s really hard to complain. His 1.74 ERA and 0.98 WHIP are virtually indistinguishable from his 2015 combo of 1.77/0.86. Expanding out further, the 28% K rate, 0.3 HR/9, .244 BABIP, and 57% GB rate look virtually identical to the 27%, 0.4, .246, and 56% marks from last year. There has been one stark difference, though. Arrieta’s walk rate has climbed from 6% to 9% this year. To put a finer point on it, he walked 48 batters in all of 2015; he has 40 already this year.

So what’s going on and should we worry at all?

First place I usually look with walk issue is first-pitch strike rate. Is Arrieta falling behind early and losing more hitters? The answer to that is a flat “no”. His 60% rate is the same as it was last year and if you move the decimal out, he’s actually a tiny tick better at 60.4% compared to 60.2%. From there I go to the chase rate. Are batters spitting on more pitches outside of the zone? That is definitely the case so far this year. His O-Swing rate was 34% last year, good for 11th in baseball. He’s down to 29% this year, just 49th among the 96 qualified starters.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 359 – So. Many. Homers.

6/26/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

Deep Dives:

Strategy Section:

  • Jason’s AL-only trade

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00:56:21