Author Archive: Paul Sporer

Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – May 19th, 2017

Chat transcript is below!

2:07

Paul Sporer: Yo yo!! Let’s talk some baseball!

2:07

GOAT: Realistically, Berrios hasn’t passed Kershaw yet as best pitcher alive, but easy second right?

2:08

Paul Sporer: Obvvvvv, because everyone knows if you beat the Rockies outside of Coors, you’re now an ace

2:08

Twinkie: I know we must temper our expectations, but it’s hard to have asked for anything more than what Berrios has given us in his first two starts…

2:08

Paul Sporer: OK, we’re gonna get a ton of Berrios questions. I’m a huge fan just as I was last year. I’m glad he’s looking good through 2, but let’s not get too overzealous

2:08

Dat Dude: HanRam or Bellinger ROS in 12 team 5×5 roto?

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 459 – Recent Call-Ups & Potential Prospect Impact

5/18/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

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Leading Off: Question of the Day

  • Which prospect are you most eager to see come up? (5:00)

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01:31:17

Starting Pitcher Ranking Update

For a full primer on the process behind these rankings, check out episode 458 of The Sleeper & The Bust.

I decided to go a different route than the traditional 1 to whatever listing and went a step beyond the tiered rankings which allow for more nuance than just a numbered ranking, but still feel inadequate to tackle the many challenges of in-season pitcher management. I do still have tiers, but they are much different tiers and so they aren’t just talent-based groupings. They are more about usability in the fantasy game.

I have five different levels for active arms and then injury and minor league groupings for those we’re waiting on. We always talk “rest of season” when looking at deals and pickups, but I think we have to be more short term than that, especially with pitching. This doesn’t mean I’m wildly shifting rankings and my outlook on pitchers after every start, but rather I’m acknowledging that the landscape is going to shift so much throughout the six month season that trying to focus beyond a month or two is foolhardy.

The tiers are as follows:

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 458 – A Different Look at SP Rankings

5/17/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

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Strategy Section: My Pitcher Rankings

  • The show is spent discussing my new pitching rankings, coming out tomorrow!

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00:56:47

Tipping Pitches: Multi-Inning Relievers

The ravaging of the starting pitcher ranks has had many turning an eye to the reliever ranks for reinforcements, even in mixed leagues or leagues without Holds. We’ve seen Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller rise to prominence without being in a closer’s role. This year’s big standout middle reliever is Houston’s Chris Devenski. His 43 strikeouts are tied 33rd-most in the league.

He has more strikeouts than notable Corey Kluber, Marcus Stroman, and even Jered Weaver if you can believe that. Devenski is still available in 29% of Yahoo! leagues, 40% of CBS leagues, and 41% of ESPN leagues so you might still be able to snag him for your staff. He is no doubt rostered in the leagues where he’s most valuable, but there are other relievers out there putting up big numbers and logging multi-inning appearances with regularity. Here are some of my favorites beyond Devenski:

Adam Warren | Yankees

Warren’s been a swingman/long reliever for a few years now, but is doing some of his best work this year. His swinging strike rate is tied with his previous career-high at 11%, yielding a career-best 24% strikeout rate. His slider looks the best we’ve seen and he’s leaning on it more than ever at 36% usage.

Obviously, the .170 BABIP and 0.0 HR/9 will push toward his .278/0.89 career marks, but I wouldn’t rule out this year being his best season since the 2.97 ERA/1.11 WHIP of 2014. He’s gone more than an inning in 10 of his 12 appearances and could put up the first 100+ IP reliever season since 2006 (Scott Proctor, 102.3).

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 457 – Saves on the Market

5/13/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

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Strategy Section: Differences at the Dish

Shallow (4:50)

Deep (11:15)

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00:57:17

Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – May 12th, 2017

Chat transcript is below!

1:31

Paul Sporer: Good Friday, everyone!! Let’s talk some baseball!!!

1:31

Paul Sporer:

1:31

Asher: I’m still holding onto Hunter Pence, is that rational? The Giants are a trash fire even if he picks it up.

1:32

Paul Sporer: Depends on league size and who is available, but I don’t think it’s egregious to keep him in 12+

1:32

Craig : Now that your boy J.D. Martinez is back. Top 20 OF?

1:33

Paul Sporer: I think so as long as the foot doesn’t linger

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 456 – Eight Buy Low Arms

5/11/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

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Strategy Section: Buy Low Arms

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00:52:02

The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 455 – Live from Sporer Manor!!

5/10/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

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Leading Off: Question of the Day

**Eno’s Beer Event**

Strategy Section: Differences at the Dish

Fewer Fastballs

SF Bullpen & general closer tangent (38:15)

Launch Angles

—

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions.

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Approximately 74 minutes of joyous analysis.

01:14:07

12 Minor League Starters to Monitor

The starting pitcher ranks have been absolutely devastated early in the season with three of the top 10 on the DL (Madison Bumgarner, Noah Syndergaard, and Corey Kluber) and three others haven’t quite been ace-like: Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, and Johnny Cueto. All of that opening the door for the likes of Dallas Keuchel, Ervin Santana, Jason Vargas, and Mike Leake to ascend into the top 10. Meanwhile, not even the ranks of the top 10 are safe as James Paxton found himself at #8 with a bullet before hitting the DL for a fourth straight season.

Looking at the top 75 SPs drafted in the NFBC, we’ve seen 21 hit the DL (28%). It’s not like the 54 who haven’t been hurt are perfectly expectations, either. In short, the need for starting pitcher is real and seems to be hitting every league size. We’re all turning over every rock for potential production and as these injuries pile up, teams will have to get deeper into their reinforcements making the minor leagues a giant rock to flipped.

I perused the leaderboards of Double- and Triple-A in hopes of identifying some names who could contribute this year. Some are known prospects, others are guys putting up big numbers thus far. Here are 12 names I’m keeping tabs on:

Jose Berrios | Twins

While he’s no longer a true prospect as he exceeded his rookie limits last year, Berrios is still one of the most intriguing arms in the minor leagues. He really struggled in 58.3 innings last year with the Twins (8.02 ERA, 5% K-BB rate), but he still dominated Triple-A (2.51, 21%). He’s been great at Triple-A again this year (1.13, 17%) and now just waiting for his chance to tackle the majors again. I’m not sure if the Super-2 deadline plays a role in Berrios’ call-up anymore after the time he had in the majors last year, but that date will be passing soon meaning there shouldn’t be any other impediments in getting him to the majors. Well, outside of super roadblock Nick Tepesch.

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