Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – May 19th, 2017

Paul Sporer: Yo yo!! Let’s talk some baseball!

GOAT: Realistically, Berrios hasn’t passed Kershaw yet as best pitcher alive, but easy second right?

Paul Sporer: Obvvvvv, because everyone knows if you beat the Rockies outside of Coors, you’re now an ace

Twinkie: I know we must temper our expectations, but it’s hard to have asked for anything more than what Berrios has given us in his first two starts…

Paul Sporer: OK, we’re gonna get a ton of Berrios questions. I’m a huge fan just as I was last year. I’m glad he’s looking good through 2, but let’s not get too overzealous

Dat Dude: HanRam or Bellinger ROS in 12 team 5×5 roto?

Paul Sporer: HanRam for me, but I dig Belly so he’s close

Bobby Hit Higginson: In a 12 team H2H 6×6, which side do you like more Brandon Drury or Jeff Samardzija ROS? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Drury, but that seems like a fair 1-for-1

Joey: Chad Green looked fantastic yesterday. What do you expect from him ROS?

Paul Sporer: I like Green. I had him over Monty for that 5th role, but Monty has taken it and run. Seems like a spot start for Green, ya?

Dory: I can’t get a bead on whether Rafael Devers is on the verge of being called up, or we won’t see him until September. Is he a guy I should be running out to stash in my AL-only keeper league?

Paul Sporer: We discussed him a bit on the pod yesterday. He’s certainly raking and they aren’t getting shit from 3B, but he’s 20 and at AA, so I’d put the probability low

benny the jet: my favorite chat of the week! Yonder/ramos for paxton/grichuk

Paul Sporer: Thank you!! AJ or Wilson Ramos?

Wes: Would you do a Harvey for JBJ swap? Don’t necessarily have a need one way or another for either guy.

Paul Sporer: That checks out. Would prob be closer to JBJ side. Harvey is just… I dunno, man

Dat Dude: Isn’t Cody Bellinger basically a lower avg Kendrys Morales this year? I suppose his speed means a few more runs, but the 30 points in average Kenrys has on him have to make up for that…

Paul Sporer: Bellinger also runs and we’re not sure where the average will be. I think Belly > Morales for me

Tom: Honeywell, De Leon and Faria seem to be getting a lot of mentions as of late. Which one comes up first? Which one do you like best?

Paul Sporer: Love Honeywell, but think he’s third in line to come up. Faria is my pick to be up first.

George is Curious: On July 1, the closers for the Tigers and Angels will be?

Paul Sporer: Justin Wilson & Bud Norris

Andres: What is going on with Odor? Will he turn it around?

Paul Sporer: This is what happens when you sell out for power. 23% infield flyball rate

Homesickalien: Hi Paul! Please rank ROS: Hahn, Eickhoff, J. Montgomery

Paul Sporer: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/starting-pitcher-ranking-update/

Greg: Got offered Yonder Alonso for Joe Ramirez. I’m really week up the middle. What say you?

Paul Sporer: If you’re weak up the middle, keep Ramirez

Harold: James Hoyt seems to be posting video game like numbers so far this season. You a fan?

Paul Sporer: Ya, he’s been nuts. Eight innings, but filthy numbers

BadFantasyQ: 10 team NL only. Currently in 2nd place but with bad pitching. Having a hard time finding any trade partners when offering Reynolds or Suarez, what should a reasonable return on Goldy offer? Goldy for Greinke and Mccutch good enough?

Paul Sporer: I want more for Goldy

Daniel: With Yoenis coming back, I need to dump an OF. Fowler, Kepler, Peralta, Renfroe, Domingo? Renfroe is the obvious choice, but he’s dirt cheap to keep for next season.

Paul Sporer: Him or Kepler

Janes: Franco or Castelannos in OBP?

Paul Sporer: Honestly, flip a coin there. I have those 2 right by each other in all formats

Lights: Hey Paul, been offered Lindor for my Kris Bryant in my OBP keeper league (keep 8). I’d keep Bryant ($66) if I choose not to make trade. Lindor costs $23 to keep. Basically, Lindor + $43 auction dollars for Kris Bryant. Caveat is that both teams are competitive to win the whole thing. Is this short term downgrade worth it for potential longer term upside?

Paul Sporer: I think the cost disparity helps me get this done. Bryant is ahead of Lindor, but I think Lindor is a first rounder. So first rounder for first rounder + $43 works for me

Paul’s the Best!: Would you be so kind as to predict the next 1-2 prospects to be called up in each league? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I’m really awful at this, but sure…

Paul Sporer: Jacob Faria and Rhys Hoskins

Richard: Bellinger or Conforto in keepers?

Paul Sporer: Preference, there’s just not enough to really split them. I prefer Belly slightly

Anthony: Ian Happ is amazeballs!

Paul Sporer: He’s really good

Paul Sporer: We’ll see if they can keep finding him PT

Acuna Matata: I have a staff with Scherzer, Arrieta, Paxton, Salazar, Bundy, and I’m sitting on a 4.32 ERA, last in my league. I’m second to last in WHIP. A lot of the damage has been done by Gausman and Gsellman. I have Berrios in the wings. Can he help me right the ship?

Paul Sporer: He can help, but it’s got to be righted by the other guys. Just gonna take some time

Paul Sporer: Of course, Pax is hurt, Arrieta & Salazar look meh, and Bundy’s skills say he’s over his head sooooo, I guess it’s on Max

Saves Vulture: Is Darren O’Day the guy to own if you’re looking for saves in Baltimore right now?

Paul Sporer: Could steal some. Still think Brach is the guy to focus on long-term while Britton is down

Bill: Would you cut Jose Peraza in a 12 team for Travis or Forsythe?

Paul Sporer: Ya, either. Never a Peraza guy

Julio Teheran: Thoughts on my season so far?

Paul Sporer: It’s been a nightmare. I know there is the home/road ERA split, but the skills on the road are shit, too, so I’m concerned. I ranked him too high, he should be a tier lower, even before the 9 ER game last night

Edwin: Thoughts on Christian Bergman? He’s managed to at least pique my curiosity after his gem on Wednesday…

Paul Sporer: Meh af

Tribe: What’s wrong with Encarnacion? Perfect buy low candidate?

Paul Sporer: I think a bit is usual slow start paired with some contract pressure where you see guys try to earn their deal in April. Weirdly sucking v. LH pitchers, too. I would buy low

weezy: so Eric Sogard… before you laugh, hitting the ball hard, not swinging out of the zone, not missing. Worth a pickup in OBP 14 teamer?

Paul Sporer: With the injuries across the league, I can see him being someone to look at in 14 tm’er. Ride it out. If it’s a stonecold fluke, you cut easily. If not, maybe you have a little something

Julio Teheran: Am I worth buying low?

Paul Sporer: On track record alone and because the price CANNOT be high at all

Jacob h cornhole: Does anyone exude pure grit in this league quite like eric sogard?

Paul Sporer: Face of the MLB!

Shawn: Which Sp breakout is sustainable – C. Morton, Godley, and/or Karns?

Paul Sporer: All three, really. Morton started his last yr before getting hurt and injury remains my biggest concern. Godley has always had a nice SwStr% and added some velo to it this year. Karns is a swing and miss guy with that curve.

Jose Peraza: Am I worth keeping on the bench of a ten man league?

Paul Sporer: He does at least have 8 SB, so ya I can see that

Dave: Would you trade Duffy + Pillar for Pedroia + Bautista? I’m pretty set in pitching and everywhere except 2B.

Paul Sporer: The quintessential sell high/buy low

Miles from Somewhere: My Lamb for Nova? Too much?

Paul Sporer: Love Lamb, would shoot a little higher

Bear Hands: Best ROS performance: JC Ramirez, Triggs, Glasnow?

Paul Sporer: Triggs

Big Tuna: Need help w HR and RBI. Would you trade Fulmer and Peralta for Story and Cahill in an OPS league.

Paul Sporer: is that David Peralta? No to the deal if it is

weezy: I’m trying to win in a 12 team keeper. Is Buxton worth holding onto? I believe in him, but he’s not there yet

Paul Sporer: Nah, I’d look elsewhere. Trade him in a keeper, though, don’t just cut obviously

Ice Cubicle: Which side? Sherzer/Correa or Goldy/LoCain? Can do in conjunction with a deal like Bryant/Kinsler/AReed for Altuve/Bogarts.

Paul Sporer: Side A for sure

HappyFunBall: Rotating Rendon, Villar, and Gyorko through 3 INF spots. Gyorko’s the short man right? Because Villar hasn’t been good.

Paul Sporer: Villar hasn’t been good, but still has 13 HR+SB. Can you just bench him and play the other 2 for now?

Ice Cubicle: McCullers for Hamilton fair?

Paul Sporer: If you need speed, yes

Wes: Is Smoak a capable replacement for Freeman? Any buy low 1B you would target in a trade otherwise?

Paul Sporer: We discussed him on yesterday’s pod along with Alonso and Holliday (still 33% available at Yahoo!) as well as Healy and Josh Bell as replacements. So ya, he’s gonna be among the best of what’s available freely

rob: Ok to drop Teheran in a 10 teamer and take a shot on a berrios or Godley?

Paul Sporer: Ya, I think so at this pt

benny the jet: sorry …another trade question (cuz i still haven’t unloaded arrieta). arrieta and beltran for E5 and samardjiza (or should i ask for k seager over encarnacion)?

Paul Sporer: If you can get Seager, yes. But I’d take either deal, tbh.

Ice Cubicle: Would you start Morton today vs. Cleveland?

Paul Sporer: Yes, in most formats,

CTJoe: Is Triggs for real – I feel like regression is likely. Start him against BOS this weekend?

Paul Sporer: You don’t think he’s gonna hold that 2.12 ERA 😉

Paul Sporer: I agree that he’ll move up from that ERA, but he’s pretty good. That said, I’m 100% OK sitting v. BOS

Anthony: Pick one going forward 10-team, ROS: Gausman, Pomeranz, Manaea, Griffin.

Paul Sporer: Manaea http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/starting-pitcher-ranking-update/

Big Tuna: Sonny Gray maybe recovering his old form?

Paul Sporer: Looking better in his last two. Keeping a close eye on him

Chewbacca: Is Tanaka just bad now or….?

Paul Sporer: Just can’t command regularly and I’m wondering if the elbow is bothering him from time to time. Looking great in April after the opener, but nothing in May

rob: Tyson ross made it through four more in EST and did fine. When do you grab him up or do you strictly wait and see when he gets back if he’s the same guy?

Paul Sporer: With the way SP has been ravaged this year, I totally understand going for him ahead of his season debut in MLB, but for the most part I’ve been saying I’d rather wait-and-see on T. Ross. Have very low expectations for ’17

BC: Any insight on Turner’s terrible OBP/AVG? Is it just bad BABIP luck or something more sinister?

Paul Sporer: Justin or Trea?

Maxamuz:

Big Tuna: Would you sell Berrios after those two starts? I own him in keeper

Paul Sporer: If you can get a deal that helps you

Ben: I don’t want to bombard you with Berrios questions, but have you been able to watch either of his starts? He seems like such a different pitcher, getting ahead of hitters and throwing nastier stuff. Guys on MLB this morning mentioned that he’s been warming up in the minors using major league hardballs to get more used to the seams. Had no idea that MLB used different hardballs than the minors, seems weird. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I always stay encouraged about his outlook bc he still dominated in AAA last yr so the MLB issues were confined to the bigs. I think he had some pitch tipping issues. He nibbled. It was just a disaster. He’s certainly trusting his stuff a lot more which has been huge for him

Chewbacca: What’s the ceiling look like for McCullers? Top 20? Top 10? Top 5?

Paul Sporer: He has sky-high potential that we’re seeing some of right now. Health, not skill, is my only concern with him.

Paul Sporer: But health is a concern for literally every pitcher, so it didn’t deter me from McCullers

Hannah Hochevar: You really went HAM on Matt Andriese in your solo chat. No question, just saying.

Paul Sporer: lolololol

Fat Albert: What are the odds that Pazos stays the Mariners’ closer for rest of the season?

Paul Sporer: Very low

Hannah Hochevar: You and Eno both seemed down on Soler yesterday. Can you tell him about breaking balls?

Paul Sporer: hahaha, someone should tell him

getting late: in an obp keeper, would you consider giving McCullers to get bellinger and benintendi or bellinger and happ?

Paul Sporer: I definitely would to get Belly and Beni

Mike: Lost Freeman in a 16 teamer. Luckily have Alonso, Bour on the wire though. He’s on a pace for a 30-100 season albeit with a 250-ish average. Worth using a #2 waiver claim on him?

Paul Sporer: Love Bour. Had him everywhere last yr and that injury snuffed out a strong season. I think he’s worth getting just bc he shouldn’t be available in a 16 teamer so if it becomes surplus, you can move someone

I Need HELP: Have Forsythe coming off the DL. 16 team, mixed, 5×5. Do Harrision or Wong have any trade value if packaged for an upgrade somewhere else?

Paul Sporer: Depends who needs 2B. Questions like these are entirely league dependent

HappyFunBall: Traded Thames for Pollock. Mine got hurt, his got sick. Delayed gratification abounds …

Paul Sporer: Frustrating. Would’ve been nice to see both continue dominating for a win-win deal

cliff: any hope of Joc Pederson every living up to his speed/power hype? Or is he just Colby Rasmus 2.0?

Paul Sporer: Did you hear me make that Rasmus comp or arrive at on your own? Bc I’m starting to think it’s Rasmus 2.0. Thought Joc would flash those minor league wheels, but it’s just not happening

Josh: You rolling with Piscotty or V-Mart ros?

Paul Sporer: Piscotty. When it’s close like this, just go with the VASTLY younger guy

Craig : Love the new rankings! Since Urias doesn’t look like he will get deep in games. What level of closer do you think you can fetch?

Paul Sporer: Thanks! I think Urias could pull a pretty solid closer. Not top tier, but can start asking beyond that

Bobby Hit Higginson: Would you drop Joc Pederson for JBJ if he was on the waiver wire (Which he Is).

Paul Sporer: Prob just stick with Joc. Not too different, but Joc hits up in the order more often

wOBAMA: Ervin for Maeda + Harvey… which side wins?

Paul Sporer: Maeda/Harvey

JAL: Happy Friday. 12-team 5×5. Had a logjam at OF. Traded my Kemp and Dickerson for his Yu Darvish. Needed pitching. Have Haniger coming back. OK or no? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I can dig that. Consolidated your OF for an ace.

Hold the Odor: Took your suggestion last week to buy low on Diaz. Offered E. Nunez. A few hours later Diaz was no longer the closer and I no longer had Nunez. Not sure how I feel. Steals are nice.

Paul Sporer: Aw man that sucks. Just hold Diaz, though. I think he gets the gig back

Kershaw’s Blonde Mustache: Thanks for updating the pitcher list!

Paul Sporer: You’re welcome!

Josh: Injuries SUCK!

Paul Sporer: They do indeed

Mo: Bellinger or Khris Davis – ROS?

Paul Sporer: Davis

Buff: Chances that Brad Hand takes closer role for Padres?

Paul Sporer: Possible bc they have other lefties to cover and he’s been WAY better than Maurer

jack: I’ve been offered Berrios for Severino, and am tempted to jump at the offer given yesterday’s amazing K-show, but am not sure if I have my Twins blinders on (Minneapolis guy, now living in Portland).

Paul Sporer: Not terribly different so if you prefer Berrios, then I’m OK with it

Kershaw’s Blonde Mustache: Is Josh Donaldson going to come back and hit 30 dingers or come back and be ineffective? Does Toronto have a chance either way?

Paul Sporer: lol, like I know 🙂 I’d expect him to be good bc he’s an awesome player

Mike: Love the chats, podcast, posts. Thanks Paul. 10 team, HtH, OBP, Saves, Holds league. Yelich/Wade Davis for Conforto/Andrew Miller is so fair it’s boring, right? Only kicker is that Conforto has keeper value the other three don’t.

Paul Sporer: Thanks, Mike! Ya that’s pretty dead even there. If I’m competing and trade away Conforto, I don’t sweat the keeper aspect

Charlotte: just because my legs are short doesn’t mean my walks have to be….

Paul Sporer: ok ok

Gest : Who do you like more Matt bush or ken Giles?

Paul Sporer: Bush

Gentry: Have you heard of an injury that J-up was dealing with last season?

Paul Sporer: No, I haven’t seen anything

Drew: Just traded Charlie Morton for Hernan Perez in a QS/OBP league. Seem like a fair enough deal or did I screw myself lol

Paul Sporer: Nah, it’s fair. I was out on Hernan Perez coming into the year, but he’s actually shown some skill growth so I’m coming around

Awake in Seattle: How does Seattle’s outfield play out when Haniger returns? Is it a random mash up each night where Servais chooses between Haniger, Dyson, Gamel, Heredia and Motter? Can we consider any of them every day regulars?

Paul Sporer: Gotta imagine Haniger plays daily

Jake Lamb Jam: Cahill or Karns RoS?

Paul Sporer: Cahill

Carlos Quintana: Why is Odubel Herrera ranked so high on so many rankings? Can’t I get 10 HR, 15 SBs off the waiver wire? 12 team league. I see Odubel ranked around #100 overall. Seems crazy.

Paul Sporer: Can you, though? How many guys with 5+ SB are on most wires right now?

Patrick: Following up on the Rays question, do you think Faria will rake when called up? I know next to nothing about him 🙁

Paul Sporer: He’s a pitcher. I think he can be solid

Josh: You think Rivero and Vizcaino are closing for their respective teams after the deadline?

Paul Sporer: Certainly possible

808: Is this “sell-high” time with Duffy or..?

Paul Sporer: I’d be open to shopping, yes

Porcho Villa: Who is more likely to keep up the hot start despite having a strikeout allergy: Nova or Leake?

Paul Sporer: Nova

Drew: Ryon Healy — any signs of anything positive to look towards?

Paul Sporer: He’s on pace for .260/30. What were you expecting?

The warm side of the pillow: Forget Odor, should we be concerned about Trea Turner? That bb/k ratio isn’t pretty

Paul Sporer: It’s not pretty, but he’s 30 games in, so it’s like end of April for him. Not freaking out yet

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Didn’t you just rank all pitchers yesterday?

Paul Sporer: I did

808: do you even lift, bro?

Paul Sporer: I do not

Bell: why have mccullers over lester in new rankings?

Paul Sporer: Why not?

Los: Trading Andrus and Wood for Murphy when I am struggling in BA. No brainer?

Paul Sporer: I’m cool with it

Porcho Villa: I need WHIP help. Who is the better trade target– Nova or Leake?

Paul Sporer: Nova

jack: Are you worried about Aaron Sanchez’s blister issues? I have him, and worry that he may be Hill redux and wondering if I should drop for guys available in free agency (Shoemaker, Manaea are the two best available)

Paul Sporer: Ya a little bit at least

benny the jet: looks like you’re a believer in pineda….why’s this year different?

Paul Sporer: It’s not. Check the comments, I address Pineda

Perhaps?: Is it possible that having Jason Castro behind the dish is why we’re seeing a different Berrios this time around?

Paul Sporer: Maybe. It’s also 2 starts, Colorado on the road, and a great prospect

All the hurt arms: Cobb seems to be rounding into form. Any hope he regains his K potential?

Paul Sporer: If the splitty comes back

Paul Sporer: lol sorry yall, had a call

jack: How much higher, if at all, would you put Berrios in your starting pitcher update after yesterday’s amazing performance? Does he jump a tier, say, past Danny Salazar?

Paul Sporer: Nah, not off one start v. a team notoriously awful on the road

Ken: Please rank ROS – Happ, Zimmer, Smoak, Renfroe

Paul Sporer: I think you just did. I know Smoak is doing the most, but I’d go for the upside of the prospects ahead of him

JD15: Start Karns tonight against the Twinks?

Paul Sporer: Yep

dustyfingers: Will T. Frazier turn it around?

Paul Sporer: Ya I don’t think he’s this bad

Joe: Hang onto Cahill in 14 team mixed league?

Paul Sporer: Yes

Nelson: Any insight on Mariners closer situation?

Paul Sporer: I think Diaz gets it back eventually making the other guys not worth bending over backwards for

Erik: I have Rich Hill coming off the DL so have to dump a starter. Should that be Morton, Leake, or Wacha? Or just leave Hill on the DL until he proves he can handle at least two starts in a row?

Paul Sporer: Hmm, I think Leake has the lowest ceiling of that group, but seems tough to just cut him. trade possibility given the shitty SP environment?

Chris: How’s Charlotte??

Paul Sporer: She’s great. Snoring on the couch

benny the jet: save spec-ing….can you rank these: soria, rivero, vizcaino, kahnle

Paul Sporer: Rivero, Kahnle, Soria, Viz

JAL: any chance Tony Zych picks up some saves?

Paul Sporer: Ya he could snake a couple

Erik: Samardzija’s ERA is way inflated compared to his peripherals. Should I assume he’s just fine, or bail for someone like Zack Godley?

Paul Sporer: Sit tight for now

Dennis: Alex Bregman isnt who we thought he was…

Paul Sporer: Power has been very light so far, I’m not giving up just yet, though

Steve: Move Bruce for Cueto, yes? 12 teams, H2H and batter Ks do not count.

Paul Sporer: Ya that works for sure

benny the jet: gut feeling on polanco? will he come back healthier ready to mash? or will the nijuries linger and make him a disappointment the rest of the year?

Paul Sporer: I really hope so. I had such high hopes for the season and then his shoulder flared up before the season started. And now this hammy. Hope the time off serves him well. I’m staying the course with him

Steve: Strategy-wise would you bench a 1-start Kluber/Pineda type of SP for a 2-start Morton/Karns type?

Paul Sporer: No

JAL: Think Porcello can/will 3.50 ish RoS?

Paul Sporer: Yep

KB: I’ve lost Pollock, Freeman, and Turner in the last 5 days. No question, I’m just sad.

Paul Sporer: Holy crap, that’s awful. I’m sorry

Sanity: Just wanted to say thanks for the SP rankings, they’re very helpful for day-to-day decisions.

Paul Sporer: You’re welcome, thanks for the kind words. Here they are for those who haven’t seen them: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/starting-pitcher-ranking-update/

seth: will Verlander fix his BB problems?

Paul Sporer: Ya, I think so. Neither his first pitch strike nor zone rates are down at a level that would call for such a surge in BB

Paul Sporer: His Foul ball rate is high right now and definitely a part of the walk issue

JD15: Like the idea of phelps as a starter in MIA?

Paul Sporer: Ya it’s kind of surprising he didn’t get a crack at it from the jump this year

Steve: Thoughts on Keon Broxton – must own in a 12 team league?

Paul Sporer: Ya, he’s gotta be on a roster in every format. Too much HR/SB potential

seth: thoughts on Gallo in 15 team roto league? I feel like i’ve got to fill my roster with 1-cat guys like Mauers and Adam Fraziers to keep my average at .250

Paul Sporer: Ya I mean, he requires you to change your roster structure bc he’s such an AVG liability

Greg Holland: What level player can I get in a trade for myself???

Paul Sporer: Depends who needs saves and what they will give

Bill: What do you think of a Kyle Hendricks for Conforto swap?

Paul Sporer: Prefer Conforto, but it’s a fair deal

benny the jet: soooooooo remember when i asked yonder/ramos or paxton/grichuk? (it was AJ ramos)

Paul Sporer: Hmmmm, that’s pretty even up for me. I’ll lean side B bc of Paxton

Paul Sporer: OK yall, I gotta get going. Thank you so much for all the questions, wish I could clear out the queue. Hit me up on Twitter @sporer if you still have questions. You can also follow me on Snapchat (psporer) and Twitch (twitch.tv/psporer24) where I stream all sorts of baseball stuff

Paul Sporer: I’ll be back next week!

Paul Sporer: OK I know I just said bye, but I like this comment and will consider it going forward:

Randy Johnson: Paul, your rankings were extremely better than those updated on most sites. The one caveat I had was the way the injured pitchers were somewhat disregarded, which I understand since an emphasis was placed on the “now” for these rankings. In the future, it could be interesting to highlight injured pitchers based on caution similar to the bullpen report. (i.e. James Paxton would be given green because he is likely to come back and dominate, whereas Thor might be a yellow due to uncertainty around his injury)

Paul Sporer: OK bye for real now