There were big expectations for Marcus Stroman coming into last season on the heels of a strong rookie campaign that saw him throw 130.7 innings of 3.65 ERA, but a very impressive 2.84 FIP. A heavy groundball focus, 4.0 K:BB ratio, and stifling homers (0.5 per 9) laid the foundation for the lofty expectations before a torn ACL in Spring Training put all of that on hold. To his credit, he returned in time to make four starts in the regular season and three more in the postseason which rejuvenated the hype to the point where he was the 26th starter off the board this past draft season.
I don’t need to a deep breakdown of his season to show that it didn’t live up to said hype. His 4.37 ERA says it all. However, he did have a 3.71 FIP and the breakdown of his season might actually be enough to yet again foster some hype heading into his age-26 campaign. He likely won’t go as a top-30 arm again, but those who look beyond the surface stats will see a tale of two halves, the second of which saw a surge in strikeouts unlike anything he’d done before and at no expense to his league-best 60% groundball rate. This jump in strikeouts will be our focus today.
(By the way, I’m splitting the sample right down the middle – April through June, July through September.)
In the first half, he pitched to a 5.33 ERA in 101.3 innings with just a 16% strikeout rate – worse than the passable-but-modest 20% rate he’d posted in 2014-15. His fastball was the biggest issue, netting a 7% strikeout rate that stood 94th of the 96 qualified starters. This folds in both his four-seamer and sinker, but neither were anywhere near the 16% league average strikeout rate for fastballs. Adding in the cutter boosted him to 10%, but he still slotted just 81st. The soft stuff had a passable 31% mark, just over the 29% average, but the slider, curve, and change accounted for just 30% of his plate appearances, muting the impact of those strikeouts.
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