Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – 10/6/16

Paul Sporer: Yooo! How’s everyone doing? These playoffs are already lit!

Hannah Hochevar: We all know you’re a big Ubaldo fan. Question is: how did you sneak into the O’s dugout and convince Buck to put him in over Britton?

Paul Sporer: LOL, my favorite pitcher! I just had to convince Buck to get that superstar in there over a failed starter like Britton

Paul Sporer: Joking aside, I don’t think it’s hyperbole to call it one of the worst moves in postseason history. It’s SO indefensible that I was completely convinced that Britton was hurt until we learned he wasn’t

Paul Sporer:

John: In all likelihood Cespedes will not live up to the value of a long term 100+ mil contract. Should the Mets give it too him anyway with lack of FA bats and him being the true star of the team?

Paul Sporer: Probably not. Short of more playoff success, this couldn’t have worked out better. They got to run it back with him making their team better and appeasing the fans. Then he went out and played well enough to where he’s likely going to exercise the option and now his early-30s can be someone else’s bad investment

Paul Sporer: And it’s not that next year or even the year after will necessarily be the bad part, but after that, it’s dicey

fresh basil: Series you’re most excited about? Weirdly it’s Boston/Cleveland for me.

Paul Sporer: I’m digging that one, but I’ll go obvious and say Texas-Toronto. Even if there are no extra curricular fireworks, I think it’ll be a helluva series and I tangentially care about Texas thanks to living here and having some good friends who love them

JAL: P, what two pitchers you throwing for dailies tomorrow?

Paul Sporer: Darvish and Kersh

fresh basil: Yeah, that’s gonna be a good one

Pie: Just capped off my third straight league title. Do you and/or Eno have a venmo that I can drop off a few (1) abucks?

Paul Sporer: Congrats! You definitely don’t have to. Gratitude on Twitter definitely works for me

JAL: Thanks for everything this year, btw!

Paul Sporer: You’re welcome!

Avi: It’s weird. Take away the Giants and the Red Sox and you have 4 teams that have not won in a half century plus, and two teams that won around 1990.

fresh basil: Yeah, you and Eno killed it all year.

Paul Sporer: Thank you so much

Pie: Is there anyone worth getting excited about in this year’s free agent class outside of Cespedes?

Paul Sporer: Others of note for me include Ian Desmond, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gomez, Justin Turner — thin market for sure

Minty: It’s no MLB the show, but you have to check out the old triple play with Giambi on the cover for PS2. Through a glitch, Matt Perisho throws a 120 mph sinker.

Paul Sporer: LOL that’s hilarious!!

JAL: ok f it. i am throwing Yu and Jason Alexander Happ. pray for the kid

Paul Sporer: Jason Alexander LOOOOOL… GL

Pie: Are you going to the Red River Shootout this year?

Paul Sporer: Nah, actually more likely to try and see Kendrick at ACL instead

Dago: I did not win any of my leagues… came close in 3 out of 4. Was on the cusp, but I thoroughly enjoyed and benefited from the chats, pods and twitter. Thank you! Are you having Charlotte make Playoff and World Series predictions (like the famous Octupus did the world cup)? That’d be lit.

Paul Sporer: You’re welcome! Char should have her own baseball blog, right?! Maybe Eno will hire her on

Tim: Paul! Hope you’re as totally stoked about the playoffs as me. Are you playing any daily fantasy this postseason? And what would you consider the best approach, given the severely limited player pool?

Paul Sporer: I’m very stoked. I love the playoffs even when my beloved Tigers aren’t there. I’m not sure if I’m gonna play DK, but I think you have to balance wanting to have some unique picks with getting the studs who are likely to go off even if they’ll be heavily used. I weirdly would do well on short slates in the regular season so maybe I should give it a go

Paul Sporer: btw JAL, I was laughing at your nickname for Happ, not the fact that you’re using him

Carl: With Andrus resergence this year, do you keep him over Forsythe for a MI spot?

Paul Sporer: It’s close. I think you can make the Andrus case if you’ve got a lot of power surrounding him

Carl: Can Roman Quinn match billy Hamilton next year? .260 50sbs, nothing else?

Paul Sporer: I liked Quinn a lot when I saw him in AFL, but he’s never drawn much prospect love. Not sure he’ll be quite the SB asset of Hamilton, but I can see 40-something SBs with a .250-.260 AVG

Bill: Where would you rank Greg Bird among 1Bs as a keep forever prospect?

Paul Sporer: Top 15ish

It hurts when I pee: 12 team mixed league ($360 budget) – Byron buxton and Jose Peraza keepers at $10 each?

Paul Sporer: I’d keep B-Bux, not Peraza

Nelson: Likeliest landing spot for Bautista next year?

Paul Sporer: Back with Toronto

Paul Sporer:

Bruce: 4 teams only played 161 games, I know the missing games did not have playoff implications, but what about for draft order

Paul Sporer: The draft probably just goes by win percentage. Not sure if those games shifted anything

Paul Sporer: Pit-Chc actually had a tie if you’re talking about them in the four, but that still fudges the win pct (though CHC obv best record regardless)

JAL: Figured as much. Can’t find the bones to pony up for Kersh/Max. Would you go Kluber over Happ though? Not sure I would…that was my dilemma. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: Ooh if you can do that, I think I would go Yu-Klubes

CoolWinnebago: Paul! I have too many 3bs, how do you rank Lamb, Franco, and Healy for next year? Eno seems to like them all which doesnt really help.

Paul Sporer: Well I’m not going to be much more help as I like them, too. Eno got me on that Healy train. But I think Franco is still my favorite of the group.

The Buck Stops at Britton: If you can keep Moncada fairly cheap for the next two years, is it worth it to ride out 1/4 season in ’17?

Paul Sporer: Man that’s tough, but you could get 1/2 a season if he goes down to Triple-A and rakes for a few months. As long as there is enough space on the reserve roster, go for it

Steve Sax: I scored 65 points in AL only 4×4 and 82 points in NL only 5×5 and came in second in both leagues. Thanks for helping my 2 90th percentile teams get beat by 95th percentile teams.

Paul Sporer: Hahaha, no problem!

The Buck Stops at Britton: Willson Contreras a keeper in a 12 team obp auction draft at $10? Budget is $360.

Paul Sporer: Ya I can get behind that.

Minty: What’re you expecting out of Buxton in an OBP league next year?

Paul Sporer: I think a .325-.330 is the high end you can be expecting, but power and speed. Glad we finally got some MLB excellence on tape for him. And then with a talent like him, there’s always the chance for the explosion

Poops: Give me a Hunter Renfroe projection for 2017 assuming has a full time job out of spring training.

Paul Sporer: Another guy who really impressed me in AFL and I think we got a nice taste of who he is even in his tiny MLB sample. The power is there, obviously. I think a full season could yield .250-30

Steve Sax: in NL only 10 team, $260 budget- I have DeSclafani, Alex Dickerson, Hernan Perez, Granderson, Eickoff, and Schimpf all at $5. Are they all keepers? I see value on all of them. Schimpf probably is the most likely to fail miserably?

Paul Sporer: i can also see the case for each and agree w/your Schimpf assessment. The SPs are pretty similar overall, so I’d only keep one (Disco for me). Y’all know I love Curtis, but I’m not sure I keep him at age-36. I’m super intrigued by Perez even though I have no idea what to really expect. Here’s my order: Disco, Perez, Dickerson, Curtis, Eick, Schimpf (power too plentiful to make his all that useful, even at 2B)

Bochy’s Big Brain: Pick one to keep – Maeda, Fulmer (same cost) or Nola at $6 cheaper.

Paul Sporer: Gonna ax Nola bc of the injury. When it’s close, an injury tiebreaker is an easy way to pare the list. I’ve got Maeda higher on my early SP list

Paul Sporer: Gonna wrap here after a couple more Qs with the game about to start

Bochy’s Big Brain: Jon Gray forecast for 2017?

Paul Sporer: 200 IP of 3.70 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 212 Ks

JAL: Seems like a light day, so I am throwing it out there for comments. Lineup for tomorrow: YU, Klubes, Willy C, Everyday Eddie E, Old Man Kendrick Lamar, The Kid Kris B, Addy Russ, Joey Bats da God, Mookie and Denard Grey Beard. Speak to me

Paul Sporer: I think you’ve inspired me to make a lineup

zurzles: how badly does the juicing of the balls or whatever it is screw up fantasy projections for 2017? how do you adjust to a world where every single player, including the retired and dead ones, hits 20 home runs

Paul Sporer: LOL it really flips things, especially after the community at large had just gotten into the idea of boosting SPs. While HRs are more plentiful and SBs more scarce, you still have to balance the fact that you need X-amount of HRs out of each spot so getting SBs from those 0-5 HR guys burdens you more to get some major sluggers

Paul Sporer: I think I’ll probably revert back to waiting a bit on SPs. Maybe not to the 7th-8th round level I used to do, but 5th-6th whereas I was taking one in 2nd or 3rd last year

Bochy’s Big Brain: What do you see out of Blake Snell in ’17?

Paul Sporer: I can see a similar ERA (something in the mid-3.00s) but some big improvement to that ugly WHIP. It’s probably still going to be in the 1.30s with his BB issues, though. 180 IP of 3.65 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 192 Ks

Eric: Where do you think Cotton ranks amongst SPs next year? What about Lugo? Are they both top 50?

Paul Sporer: I can’t get either in the top 50 just yet, but I was impressed by both for sure. I think I’d lean toward Cotton between the two

Paul Sporer: Alright folks, thanks for coming out! Enjoy the playoffs. I’ll be back next week!!