Author Archive: Paul Sporer

Team context is undoubtedly a huge factor in fantasy sports as the performance of the whole obviously correlates with the individuals. That doesn’t mean good players don’t reside on bad teams or that being on a 100-win team guarantees a player success, but you’re obviously not entering your drafts with an idea of loading up on Miami Marlins and Detroit Tigers, teams expected to struggle throughout 2018. As the league shifts to more of a haves/have nots phase with several rebuilds under way, you might find yourself crossing off a bunch of “have not” teams only to realize you’re cutting the pool too much to field the kind of teams you want. One team you might consider delving deeper on is the Atlanta Braves.

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Draft season has become a year-round endeavor for fantasy baseballers if so inclined. Usually the winter dotted with industry-based mocks that will appear in the magazines set to hit the shelves soon, but nowadays both NFBC and Fantrax get live leagues going so quickly that there’s barely any down time. I’ve done or am in the middle of a couple leagues of my own while also participating in a host of mocks and I’m noticing some early trends.

Trea Turner is a Top Fiver

When Sammy Reid and Doug Thorburn took Turner 4th overall in my AFL draft, I didn’t bat an eye and tipped my hat at their commitment to the 25-year old fantasy beast. I did think it’d be on the higher end of his upper range as I saw him settling in the back half of 15-team first rounders. Alas, they nailed it dead on as his current average draft position (ADP) is 4th overall. He’s even gone as high as 2nd overall, presumably behind Mike Trout.

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1/5/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @justinmasonfwfb – Producer

Solo episode where I discuss my first 11 picks in the “Beat Paul Sporer” league.

• Draft results

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Last time out, I looked at the pitchers I favored in the early NFBC market and today we’re hitting the other end of the spectrum. There are five Top 50 starters going in early NFBC drafts that I’m at least 10 spots lower on, including one who is nearly 25 spots different. By the way, we will soon have the NFBC’s ADP live on the site, so stay tuned for that!

PITCHERS THE MARKET FAVORS:

Luis Castillo – 36th for me; 26th in NFBC

I consider myself quite a big fan of Castillo (I mean, I do have his Fangraphs player id memorized… that’s a true sign of love, right?!?!), but the market has passed me by, at least in the early drafts. I understand the excitement over his elite stuff and sharp 89-inning debut, but he also rode a .198 AVG and 80% LOB rate to that 3.12 ERA. I regularly hear comps to Luis Severino, but those seem to conveniently forget the busted 2016 for Severino. Of course, there’s nothing that says he has to follow Severino’s path to pan out similarly, especially since Castillo debuted at 24, which is three years older than Severino’s 2015 debut.

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It’s Festivus, the best and most important holiday of the year. Popularized on Seinfeld, Festivus includes The Airing of Grievances, which normally takes place after dinner, but we’re moving it up this year because as Frank Costanza says: “I got a lotta problems with you people, and now you’re going to hear about it!” Frank aptly explains the AoG:  “At the Festivus dinner, you gather your family around, and tell them all the ways they have disappointed you over the past year!”

So we’re virtually gathering the baseball family around and it’s time to let ‘em know what’s what!

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The market hasn’t been all that robust since the last Winter Moves update, but there have been enough moves for another piece. We’re in the holiday lull and probably won’t see much for the next week or so and then a flurry of activity in January.

• Evan Longoria to SF; Christian Arroyo, Denard Span, Stephen Woods, and Matt Krook to TB

Longoria is a Tampa Bay institution, spending his first 10 years there as the foundation of the organization, but now heads out west on the heels of his worst season ever (96 wRC+). Even if the wRC+ jumps back up, it likely won’t net any fantasy benefit given his new park. His last four years have seen 22, 21, 36, and 20 HR all in full seasons so that trend paired with the park should put expectations at a .260/20 HR/80 RBI. In other words, a mixed league corner infielder. The best I can say about this move is at least he’s not a left-handed batter or we might be looking a low-to-mid teens HR output.

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12/21/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @justinmasonfwfb – Producer

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• • Zach Britton Ruptured Achilles (5:10)
  • Orioles no longer expect to trade Manny Machado (7:35)
  • Evan Longoria traded to SF (15:00)
  • Martin Perez gets *bulled* over (28:45)
  • Matt Moore traded to TEX (30:00)
  • Mitch Moreland back to BOS (35:00)
  • Matt Adams to WAS (39:55)
  • Yonder Alonso to CLE (43:00)
  • Yovani Gallardo, Jhoulys Chacin to MIL (51:00)
  • J.T. Realmuto requests trade (55:45)

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The NFBC is conducting drafts already and has generated an ADP from nine leagues. We will soon be hosting NFBC ADP here at Fangraphs, but right now it’s only available to those with a league on the site so you’ll have to take my word on these prices. I decided to look at how my Top 50 starters (updated since this October run so don’t get too hung up on those… update coming after the New Year) matched up with the market and highlight some of the biggest discrepancies. Today we’re focused on the guys I like more than the market.

PITCHERS I FAVOR:

Michael Wacha – 45th for me; 72nd in NFBC

Not to undercut the entire premise of this piece, but I have to mention how tight the middle group of starters really is again in 2017. Seeing a 27-spot difference feels stark, but just comparing my own 72nd guy to Wacha – Patrick Corbin – highlights how close it is in that range. That isn’t to say that the rankings don’t matter, there are still factors that will have you preferring one guy over another. I still see upside in the 27-year old (July 1st birthday which has him right on that cusp so he’ll be listed as age-26 some places, age-27 at others) righty for the Cards.

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12/15/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @justinmasonfwfb – Producer

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Carlos Santana to PHI (0:54)
• Zack Cozart to LAA/Ian Kinsler trade (16:28)
• Marcell Ozuna trade (31:40)
• Stephen Piscotty trade (34:50)
• Freddy Galvis trade (45:45)
• Middle Reliever Bonanza (53:00)
  • Juan Nicasio to SEA
  • Brandon Morrow to CHC
  • Fernando Rodney to MIN
  • Brandon Kintzler back to WAS
  • Hector Rondon to HOU

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Yes, we did get 700 more middle reliever signings, buuttt we also got three trades of note. Meanwhile, these Manny Machado rumors are blazing hot and reports suggest he could be moved as soon as this weekend!

• Marcell Ozuna to STL; Sandy Alcantara, Magneuris Sierra, Zac Gallen, & Daniel Castano to MIA

Ozuna’s breakout in 2017 might look isolated, but if you check his 2016 splits, you will see that he was having the breakout year through June before a wrist injury sapped his power and curbed production over the second half. Before the injury he had 16 HR and a .948 OPS in 299 PA, but then just 7 HR and a .605 OPS the rest of the way. He was brilliant in 2017 with no worse than an .873 OPS in all six months of the season en route to a 37 HR/.924 OPS campaign. It’d be prudent to bake in some natural regression, but a .290/30/100 season is very believable. Andrew Perpetua digs even deeper on the new Cardinal.

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