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Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – January 12th, 2018

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January 12, 2018

Let’s talk some baseball!

2:38

Paul Sporer: Wooo, it’s baseball chat time!
2:39

Dan: Heya, Paul! Hope you’re enjoying the off-season. So next year I’m doing my first head-to-head fantasy leagues. What are the major differences, strategy-wise, from a roto? I figure punting a category is less advisable, but what else should I be aware of?
2:41

Paul Sporer: It depends if it’s points or categories h2h. In pts leagues, SPs are usually pushed up a bit. SBs mean less since you can get pts from any avenue and don’t specifically NEED SB.
2:41

Jumanji Laurasia: What are your expectations for Glasnow this season?
2:43

Paul Sporer: I’m not a huge fan so he’s gotta show me something. He made some mechanical changes that bore some fruit in the minors, but did nothing for him in his last MLB stint with 15 BB in 7.7 IP.
2:43

Luke: Please help the Giants outfield, please Paul

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Byron Buxton’s Second Half Surge

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January 12, 2018

I’ll never be confused for a Byron Buxton fanboy. The tremendous hype of being a top-2 prospect for three straight seasons set outsized expectations that few could realistically meet. Buxton fell waaay short, though. He totaled just 138 games in 2015-16 with a paltry .220/.274/.398 line including 12 HR and 12 SB in the 469 PA. He was even worse for the first three months of 2017, hitting .195/.272/.280 through 78 games (263 PA). From there, he started a six-game hitting streak before going on the DL only to return as one of the league’s best players for the final two months. How’d that happen?

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 515 – Pirates Re-Tooling and Rockies Pen

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January 11, 2018

1/11/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

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Sneaky Good Fantasy Team: Atlanta Braves

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January 11, 2018

Team context is undoubtedly a huge factor in fantasy sports as the performance of the whole obviously correlates with the individuals. That doesn’t mean good players don’t reside on bad teams or that being on a 100-win team guarantees a player success, but you’re obviously not entering your drafts with an idea of loading up on Miami Marlins and Detroit Tigers, teams expected to struggle throughout 2018. As the league shifts to more of a haves/have nots phase with several rebuilds under way, you might find yourself crossing off a bunch of “have not” teams only to realize you’re cutting the pool too much to field the kind of teams you want. One team you might consider delving deeper on is the Atlanta Braves.

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Early Draft Thoughts: Turner, Young 1B, The Glob™

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January 10, 2018

Draft season has become a year-round endeavor for fantasy baseballers if so inclined. Usually the winter dotted with industry-based mocks that will appear in the magazines set to hit the shelves soon, but nowadays both NFBC and Fantrax get live leagues going so quickly that there’s barely any down time. I’ve done or am in the middle of a couple leagues of my own while also participating in a host of mocks and I’m noticing some early trends.

Trea Turner is a Top Fiver

When Sammy Reid and Doug Thorburn took Turner 4th overall in my AFL draft, I didn’t bat an eye and tipped my hat at their commitment to the 25-year old fantasy beast. I did think it’d be on the higher end of his upper range as I saw him settling in the back half of 15-team first rounders. Alas, they nailed it dead on as his current average draft position (ADP) is 4th overall. He’s even gone as high as 2nd overall, presumably behind Mike Trout.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 514 – The BPS League

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January 5, 2018

1/5/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

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Solo episode where I discuss my first 11 picks in the “Beat Paul Sporer” league.

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Me v. the Early NFBC Market: SPs Pt. 2

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January 3, 2018

Last time out, I looked at the pitchers I favored in the early NFBC market and today we’re hitting the other end of the spectrum. There are five Top 50 starters going in early NFBC drafts that I’m at least 10 spots lower on, including one who is nearly 25 spots different. By the way, we will soon have the NFBC’s ADP live on the site, so stay tuned for that!

PITCHERS THE MARKET FAVORS:

Luis Castillo – 36th for me; 26th in NFBC

I consider myself quite a big fan of Castillo (I mean, I do have his Fangraphs player id memorized… that’s a true sign of love, right?!?!), but the market has passed me by, at least in the early drafts. I understand the excitement over his elite stuff and sharp 89-inning debut, but he also rode a .198 AVG and 80% LOB rate to that 3.12 ERA. I regularly hear comps to Luis Severino, but those seem to conveniently forget the busted 2016 for Severino. Of course, there’s nothing that says he has to follow Severino’s path to pan out similarly, especially since Castillo debuted at 24, which is three years older than Severino’s 2015 debut.

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Festivus Airing of Grievances

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December 23, 2017

It’s Festivus, the best and most important holiday of the year. Popularized on Seinfeld, Festivus includes The Airing of Grievances, which normally takes place after dinner, but we’re moving it up this year because as Frank Costanza says: “I got a lotta problems with you people, and now you’re going to hear about it!” Frank aptly explains the AoG:  “At the Festivus dinner, you gather your family around, and tell them all the ways they have disappointed you over the past year!”

So we’re virtually gathering the baseball family around and it’s time to let ‘em know what’s what!

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Winter Moves Update: Longo Dealt, 1B Week, & Chacin Leaves SD

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December 22, 2017

The market hasn’t been all that robust since the last Winter Moves update, but there have been enough moves for another piece. We’re in the holiday lull and probably won’t see much for the next week or so and then a flurry of activity in January.

Longoria is a Tampa Bay institution, spending his first 10 years there as the foundation of the organization, but now heads out west on the heels of his worst season ever (96 wRC+). Even if the wRC+ jumps back up, it likely won’t net any fantasy benefit given his new park. His last four years have seen 22, 21, 36, and 20 HR all in full seasons so that trend paired with the park should put expectations at a .260/20 HR/80 RBI. In other words, a mixed league corner infielder. The best I can say about this move is at least he’s not a left-handed batter or we might be looking a low-to-mid teens HR output.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 513 – I Never Forget Bush

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December 21, 2017

12/21/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

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Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

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