The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Board tonight, comments in the morning! I’m also curious if there’s anything those of you still chasing down titles and placements would want to see to make the board more useful in September.

• Tough board today starting with pitchers 2-5 all have medium-to-tough matchups. It doesn’t take me off any of ’em, of course, just know there’s some downside w/a rookie in ATL, anyone v. ARI, Biebs still only making his 6th start in 2 yrs, and Ranger in a heated divisional matchup v. NYM
• Pitchers 6-10 go the other way where it’s less bankable arms, but much stronger matchups:
  • Is Eury hitting a wall and done being good this year or ready to rebound v. WAS? It’s Mazur today, Eury tom.
  • Can Houser defeat his old team despite their improved offense? (15th wOBA in L30)
  • Will Bradish stay hot w/a great matchup?
  • Is Cameron’s tank running empty? 0 K/6 ER, 5 BB/3 ER in his L2 starts
  • Does Sheehan go long enough to steal a W in a great spot?
• I can see running any of the 2-x’s in 10-teamers, but I don’t think they are anywhere near must starts… Strider’s been better in his L2 but still just 4 Ks/5 BB so he’s not necessarily back just bc of the 4 ER in 12 IP.
• King’s 1-x is just IL return caution. As I discussed with someone in the comments, if he goes off today then it’s all systems go v. COL

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The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Board tonight, comments in the morning!

• Not all the 3-xs are created equally, of course, w/Crochet-Woo-Webb-Lodolo-Glasnow-Imanaga sitting a cut above youngsters Bergert and McLean, but I can’t envision sitting those two in many – if any – spots. McLean is in PHI which isn’t easy, but he’s just been SO elite so far.
• TEX isn’t a total walkover so I don’t think Q coasts to a win, just that I’d be willing to chase a W with him as opposed to relying on him for ratios.
• Darvish-Morales-Cecconi-Cavalli is an interesting group of risky upside arms… any of the four can pop off or get smoked and figuring who will do what is the tough part. I, of course, lean toward Darvish and Morales with their 2-x rankings, but not exponentially ahead of Cecconi-Cavalli by any stretch.
• Crismatt’s WHIP makes clear that ERA is fraudulent laced with good fortune. Still might not be the worst spot to do a haf-assed Win chase as the D’Backs can still swing it a bit so while they are an also-ran team at this point, they still have a fair win probability on most nights.

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9/7/25

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2-START PITCHERS FOR WEEK 25

• Auto Starts: Garrett Crochet, Shota Imanaga, Nick Lodolo, George Kirby, Bryan Woo, Logan Webb
• Removed from Auto Start: José Berríos, HOU, BAL 2:10 | Framber Valdez, at TOR, at ATL 6:30
• Framber tangent 11:07
• Nabil Crismatt, at SFG, at MIN 16:00
• Luis Morales, BOS, CIN 17:36
• Joey Wentz, CHC, HOU 19:30
• Slade Cecconi, KCR, CHW 22:45
• 2 Rockies we’re never starting 
• Chase Dollander dynasty talk 25:53

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The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

I know the Cubs game is going already today, but here’s the rest of the weekend!

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Read the rest of this entry »

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Pardon me for missing my chat today, I had a doctor’s appt. (nothing crazy or worrisome) and that was the only window they could squeeze me into this week. I posted a notice on yesterday’s chart, but it wasn’t until the morning so I imagine that not everyone saw it and some were wondering where the chat was this afternoon. 

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Read the rest of this entry »

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

I will NOT be able to conduct my chat today. I have a doctor appointment (nothing crazy) and this was the one window they could fit me in this week. 

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Board tonight, comments in the AM!

• After a couple poor tune-up starts fresh off the IL, Kirby has 3.26 ERA/1.10 WHIP/19% K-BB in his L16
• Eury had some hiccups in Aug, including a nightmare last night (0.7 IP/5 ER) but he still had 2 QS and logged 3 Ws; barring another mega-dud here, his WAS/DET 2-step next wk should be super appealing
• Ray’s velo was down for his starts at MIL and at SDP, but it was back up to 93.7 mph (+0.2 v. season mark) last time out despite the poor results
• Horton might actually deserve to be just behind Kirby if not #1 himself; since allowing 4 ER at MIN on July 9th, he’s allowed 4 ER in his L8 combined: 0.86 ERA/0.88 WHIP/16% K-BB in 42 IP
• I’ve been cautious w/Shohei and I think rightfully so to this point, but he reached 5 IP for first time this yr and draws a great matchup to do it again! Always a risk to go fewer than 5 IP, but confidently putting him in the rotation again
• Bieber’s had 2 great starts off the IL w/15 Ks and 0 BB… he’ll likely have a hiccup at some point as most injury returners do, but I can’t see sitting him anywhere right now
• Springs hasn’t had the same crazy home/road splits like some of his Athletics teammates, but he is still better on the road (3.66 ERA/1.12 WHIP) and I don’t mind giving him a shot in STL
• The Fermin/Bergert & Kolek trade was a small but impactful that both teams might end up very happy with when it’s all done. Bergert has continued his success w/KCR, posting a shiny 2.54 ERA/1.02 WHIP in 28.3 IP and while his 15% K-BB isn’t amazing, it is up nearly 5 pts from his SDP work (2.78 ERA/1.18 WHIP/11% K-BB)
• Cortes/Houser/Littell are definitely dicier outside of the deeper leagues, but have enough intrigue to be viable-if-risky streamers in 12s and lower
• Zebby/Povich/Mize/Ashcraft/Leiter are a group of interesting streamers with tangible upside, but substantial risk tied to their inconsistency, matchup, or both. Zebby’s date w/the White Sox is the easiest of the group but they aren’t the pushover they were in the 1H
• Q is scary v. PHI and honestly if I’m giving him 1-x, I guess Nola can get 1, too… both are very scary with substantial downside where you’re really hoping whichever you use can snake a Win
• Liberatore to Alexander contains some intriguing streaming names but I’m trying to avoid duds down the stretch to the best of my ability and all of these guys scare me for one reason or another:
  • Liberatore faded after a strong start and ATH offense is frisky
  • Cantillo’s WHIP is horrendous & BOS is a solid offense
  • May just isn’t someone I can trust anywhere so best of luck if you’re taking that plunge
  • Gallen is similar to May in that respect where his name value keeps people coming back and both have solid matchups, but their skills scare me entirely too much

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The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Board tonight, comments in the AM!

• Top 3 guys are awesome and get solid matchups (though Woo and Ras are facing each other so only 1 can win)
• Kershaw is the only other 3-x with a good matchup so he could be a little higher in a DFS situation, but he’s still essentially a 5-and-dive (7 starts of 6+ mixed in) and his Ks are awful at just 16%
• Fried’s going to HOU to square off v. Framber… hopefully it’s a fantastic duel between the 2 southpaws
• Webb’s headed to Coors where he’s logged the most innings outside of Oracle w/decent results: 4.44 ERA/1.16 WHIP/15% K-BB; COL is 4th in wOBA vR at home since the All-Star break, but I’m still running Webb comfortably
• McLean will have his hiccup eventually, but he’s been absolutely dialed in for these 3 starts and I can’t see sitting him anywhere
• Lodolo/Berríos is another fun matchup that could yield a duel or go sideways in Great American Ballpark
• Darvish is an ERA risk (though he has a palatable 3.77 since the 8 ER at STL), but the 1.11 WHIP is very useful
• I stopped short of giving Sevvy the 3rd x because while he is muuuuch better on the road with a 3.17 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, it comes with just a 9% K-BB which puts a lot of pressure on the .237 BABIP to stay great on the road
• Cavalli was cooked for 7 ER at NYY, but that was an easy skip so I’m not going to hold the Dud against him too harshly and even though MIA is better than we thought they’d be this year, I’m comfortable taking another shot w/him here
• Wells is debuting after over 10 months off (last start was 4/12/24) so I’d like to see one before diving in… he could look solid like Luis Garcia did last night as Wells’ 6-start rehab did go pretty well, but there’s a good bit of downside here, too… his 1-x is more to draw attention to his return and maybe pickup and stash instead of starting right away
• Cecconi’s had his dips but mostly been a solid streamer this summer, L10 Game Scores: 55–66–45–54–54–59–26–17–59–52
• I’m keeping an eye on SGL and would even be open to a pickup and stash with him, too, but I’m just not sure how many IP we can expect today and it’s a really tough matchup

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The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Board tonight, comments in the AM!

• Jeez, what a tough board to open the week! Greene – our top SP – gets the AL East-leading Blue Jays. Gray and Cease get feisty offenses in ATH and BAL
• Nelson is quietly having a fantastic season and has the best matchup of the Top 5
• Mis went 5 IP last time out, notching 10 Ks… could do it again or go 3 IP but he’s tough to sit anywhere
• Bello’s 5 ER in 5.7 IP at SDP is his only sub-6 IP outing over the L6: 2.12 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 13% K-BB in 38.7 IP
• Strider dropped a solid 7 IP/1 ER gem after 3 straight duds, but still only had 3 Ks… kinda similar to Mis where you’re starting him damn near everywhere despite the remarkably volatile performance
• Dropped an “x” off Castillo and Kikuchi as I’m open to skipping either in shallower formats… trips to TBR & HOU are scary
• Bradish was amazing in his return to the mound, but that doesn’t mean he’s an automatic must-start after 6 good IP
• We have to distance ourselves from the name value of Ober/Manaea relative to their brutal performances
• Added a 2nd “x” to Morales, but didn’t shift the board; I would consider Morales behind Messick now
• Baz terrifies me at home and I took off the 1 “x” he had as I just don’t see the upside of running him anywhere

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8/29/25

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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• Paul Sporer | Twitter | Bluesky – Host
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• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

2-START PITCHERS FOR WEEK 24

• Auto Starts: Ryne Nelson, Brayan Bello, Hunter Greene, Noah Cameron, Max Fried, Dylan Cease, Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray 0:48
• ROSTER EXPANSION ON SEPT. 1ST SUBJECT TO CHANGE ANY AND ALL OF THIS
• Luis Morales, at STL, at LAA 1:40
• Colin Rea, ATL, WAS 3:07
• Parker Messick, at BOS, at TBR 5:30
• Slade Cecconi, at BOS, at TBR 7:14
• Chase LOLlander

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The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Board tonight, comments in the AM!

This is being put together before Thursday evening’s games even start since I have a fantasy football draft tonight, so I’ll try to stay on top of any switches in the morning since I’m locking the board so early but never hesitate to let me know if someone is switched out.

• Skenes & Javier in for Burrows/McCullers Jr.
• Can’t say I’ve ranked Skenes lower than 1 more than 2-3x this year (the day he and Skubal both went in the PIT-DET doubleheader, but not v. each other was one such day), but Kirby’s matchup is just SO much better
• Peralta has a rough draw in TOR, but aces play v. anyone
• Eury emerged from 3-start blip (6.14 ERA) w/TOR gem (6 IP/2 ER), instilling confidence to trust him everywhere again
• Littell has failed to go 5 IP in 2 of his L3, but still has a fantastic 3.23 ERA/1.11 WHIP in his L20 starts (120 IP)
• I’m probably finding the start for Biebs in 10 teamers, too, but I didn’t want to get toooo drunk on the 1 great start
• Tolle/Tang debuts are going to be super interesting as both have major upside but also substantial risk

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