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3-x

• Sugar Shane gets a muted Yankees team as they sit 27th vL over the last month and dead-last the last two weeks. He had a bumpy June but got the ball rolling on a strong July with 6 scoreless at KCR last time out.
• I had some interest in most of the guys coming back from over from NPB/KBO this year but in no world did I think Griffin would emerge into an all-formats must start like this. Sparkling ratios, a strong 18% K-BB (Top 30), and a remarkably supportive offense helping him to 9 Ws so far.
• Kirby & Woo swapped days so it’s Kirby today despite him being on yesterday’s board, too.
• King was in a bit of a “prove it” stage for me, falling down my board after a 6.41 ERA and poor skills during a 5-start run. He’s working his way back up with 2 gems in his L3, including back-to-back starts against the Dodgers (1 good, 1 bad). The next step is hopefully an uptick in Ks. He’s down to a career-low 21% K rate and hasn’t fanned more than 5 since May 18th.
• Bennett is in a groove, allowing fewer than 3 R in each of his L4 and going at least 6 IP in the L3. CHW is a volatile offense because of their swing-and-miss so while they are 10th in wOBA on the year, they’re just 27th in the L14 days.
• We (the royal “we”, as in the larger baseball community) need to stop anointing Roki every time he strings together some good starts. Appreciate them, note the improvements when they show up, but don’t forget this is a 24-year old still just 23 starts into his MLB career. HRs remain at the core of his problems with a 2.0 mark, including 3 last time out. I still can’t pass up a Rockie Road (shouts to Nick Pollack! 🫡) outing despite the recent struggles (7.13 ERA/1.50 WHIP in L30).

2-x

• Two mega-Duds (6, 9 ER) level set Martin’s ERA back into the 3.00s, but he responded well both times. Six shutout following the 6 ER Dud and B2B gems after the 9 ER collapse at NYY. A 5 BB outing at CLE his last time out continues a concerning control trend over his L6 with an 11% BB after a 5% in his first 11. BOS is better of late with 5.3 R/G in the last 13, but that isn’t enough to completely fade Martin.
• Kremer has 3 excellent starts on the year and was even sharp in 4 rehab starts returning from injury but I don’t want to overrate a tiny sample and blindly use him against a CHC team that can smoke anyone.
• I might be closer to 1-1.5 x on Cecconi given how hot this MIN offense is right now. They’re behind only the Rockies vR with a .382 wOBA vR in the L30 days. Cecconi did have great 2.66 ERA in 10 starts from May 7-June 27 but just a 12% K-BB with it suggests it was more of a hot run than a skill improvement. He also had a Dud last time out, his 4th of the year, so when he’s off, he’s way off.

0-1 x

• Springs is another heavy home/road split Athletic but he’s not nearly as good as Ginn on the road when I recommended him (Ginn was OK but left after 4 IP, 61 pitches w/illness) so this is a tentative play, especially with DET playing a lot better ball of late.
• Arrighetti is such a classic risk-reward with his volatile skills yielding a wiiide range of outcomes and we’ve seen a microcosm of that in his last 2: 3 IP/8 ER and 6 IP/1 ER. Feeling lucky?
• I rave about Feltner 2-3x a month and how much I wish he was on any other team but COL. He’s riding 3 straight QS, only one on the road. In fact, he’s the rare Rockies pitcher who has been a good bit worse on the road: 4.14/1.11 at home | 4.58/1.47 on road. Obviously, it’s never fun to face LAD but he’s catching them at about the best time you can as they’re just 16th in wOBA over the last 2 weeks.
• Downshifted Jones to 0-x after being 2 on the initial post. He’s reach 5 IP in just 1 start, I just don’t see the upside starting him right now. If he was at least going 5 IP regularly, we could chase a Win since PIT is good, but he’s not so we can’t.

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• I still don’t think Skenes’s struggles are actionable as his last start was the first truly awful one since Opening Day.
• Tolle/Seymour are getting a muted version of their opponent’s offense today with CHW sitting 22nd in wOBA the L14 days and NYY down to 27th in the same timeframe.
• Lugo’s old team is the perfect chance for him to get back on track after a 5.31 ERA/1.48 WHIP in the L30 days.
• Abbott-Cantillo-Boyd all get great matchups which could make them usable in 10s depending on your options. I still don’t really trust Abbott but PHI’s offense remains stagnant despite their overall success.
• Warren/Soriano were amazing to start the season but have both hit the skids as they hit the road today. Both have 5.00+ ERAs and near-1.70 WHIPs over the L30 and yet I’m down to start either in a lot of spots. They were never quite as good as their heights from April/May, but they’re also not this bad, either.
• Ginn should probably be closer to the top of the 2-x’s given his excellent road record: 2.31 ERA/.88 WHIP in 47 road IP. DET has been hitting better of late (14th wOBA L14) but not enough to run from this, especially since we only really get to start Ginn on the road.

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• Roupp hasn’t been great of late (5.40 ERA/1.52 WHIP/13% K-BB in L30 days) which is why I went 2-x, but I can see a 10-team start, especially in light of TOR sitting 28th in wOBA in the last 2 wks.
• Jax, meanwhile, is rolling and catches an NYY team that sits dead last in the last two weeks and 26th for the month so I can see some 10-team starts for him, too. I definitely would start both Roupp and Jax in 10-team weekly lineups formats to get the 2-step.
• I’m kinda back on the ReyLo train. I’m a long-time fan so it’s not that surprising but I’m definitely surprised to have him slotted above Peralta, his opponent on Monday.
• Peralta catches a sputtering ATL offense but will it even matter? He’s been brutal with an 8.49 ERA/1.71 WHIP/9% K-BB in the L30. And yes, there is a 10-bomb in there but even removing that only takes him down to 5.22 in that time. Despite the turmoil, I still can’t see myself benching for a 2-step in medium-to-deep formats. He hasn’t been this bad all year so I think we just have to slog through this in a lot of situations.
• Lauer gets COL off a Coors homestand and has the Dodgers offense and pen at his back.
• The problem with starting Buehler (other than his statistics) is that SDP offers no offensive support so he has to be perfect v. ARI and hope they scratch a few against Pfaadt (they should because he’s very gettable, but can’t bank on it).
• I remain stunned how little PHI is moving the needle on their wOBA rankings even as they continue to pile up wins. Their ranking does not convince me to spin Cameron in any format.

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7/3/26

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2-START PITCHERS FOR WK15 (July 6th)

• AUTO-START: Jacob Misiorowski, Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, Cristopher Sánchez, Jacob deGrom, Zack Wheeler, Kevin Gausman, Shane McClanahan, Payton Tolle, Max Meyer
• Will Warren NYY – @ TB (9 wOBA rank), @ WSH (13) – 5:19
• José Soriano LAA – @ TEX (20), @ MIN (19) – 7:00
• Landen Roupp SF – vs TOR (18), vs COL (8) – 10:03
• Freddy Peralta NYM – @ ATL (5), vs BOS (27) – 12:25
• Taj Bradley MIN – vs CLE (25), vs LAA (22) – 17:30
• Dustin May STL – vs MIL (3), vs ATL (5) – 19:40
• Trevor McDonald SF – vs TOR (18), vs COL (8) – 22:40

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• Griffin catches the good side of facing PIT as they’re a top offense vR but middling or worse vL. He’s coming off a brilliant June, too: 1.16 ERA/.80 WHIP/24% K-BB in 31.3 IP.
• Detmers and Webb both draw Top 10 offense – and Webb is headed to Coors – but I still got them in the Top 5 because of their strong seasons and especially strong recent work. Last 30 Days – RD: 2.27 ERA/.82 WHIP/18% K-BB | LW: .71 ERA/.61 WHIP/19% K-BB
• After going 6+ IP in eight straight coming into June, Gav Williams didn’t reach 6 IP in any of his five June starts against a tough slate of teams (NYY 2x, MIL, CHW, and SEA). He did finish the month w/back-to-back 5 IP/2 ER outings, including one against the same CHW team he faces today so despite the June Swoon, I can’t see benching him anywhere.
• Harrison draws the tough side of ARI but it only moves him down a couple spots as he’s obviously been way too good to skip any starts.
• Castillo rebounded from a tough Follow appearance (4 IP/4 ER) with a gem against the hobbled Guardians: 6 scoreless with 4 Ks, 1 BB. After a rough start that included a pair of 7 ER Duds in April, Castillo has been a solid mid-rotation arm since even with the uncertain role: 4.12 ERA/1.14 WHIP/16% K-BB in 48.3 IP and has just a 3.38 ERA in the L30 days.
• We saw 12.7 scoreless IP out of Cole to start his season, but then just a 6.12 ERA/1.48 WHIP combo in June with 7 HRs allowed and less than a strikeout-per-inning (22 in 25 IP) holding him back. MIN’s offense is sneaky great vR, sitting 6th on the year in wOBA and 1st over the L30 days. I don’t think he’s a must-start and I wouldn’t be targeting him in any sort of DFS game.
• I slept on Bennett a bit but now 6 starts in, he’s looking quite good, especially of late. He only had 4 Ks in his first two starts (10.3 IP), but he’s up to 21 in his last 22.7 IP that included 6 shutout innings and 9 Ks in Coors!
• Arrighetti had a devastating June (9.00 ERA in 25 IP), getting cooked in 4 of 5 starts despite reaching 6 IP in three of ’em and still netting 32 Ks. Guys like this can be so frustrating because the second you move off them, they drop 7 scoreless with 10 Ks.

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• I really hope we get the gem we deserve from Miz v. Burns.
• Miller has been absolutely electric, allowing so few base runners that the 1.4 HR9 isn’t hurting. It reminds me a bit of peak Robbie Ray’s approach – just hammer the zone and let your stuff do the work, homers be damned. Obviously a 99% LOB rate won’t hold, nor will the .216 BABIP, and probably not even his 30% K-BB, but he doesn’t need to stay this hot to be an all-formats must-start pitcher.
• Roki opened last month with a gem (7 scoreless, 10 Ks) before a June Swoon in his other three (14 IP, 13 ER, 12 Ks, 9 BB), but I can’t see skipping this one v. SDP. They were hitting a bit a week or so ago but now have 3 or fewer runs in 4 of their L5.
• Not only did Ureña have a shutout going into the 5th inning of his last start, but also a no-hitter before allowing 7 R on 6 H and 2 BB
• May got an extended layoff for back tightness after his Dud at KCR so I can see skipping this if you’re nervous. He is catching ATL at a great time, though, as they sit dead last vR in the L30 days.
• Cecconi hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER since May 2nd and went at least 5 IP in all five June starts. Just a 10% K-BB in that time keeps expectations in check which is why it’s still only a 2-x recommendation. He’s startable in 10s if you’re vibing with him but this CHW offense makes me nervous.
• Waldrep was up to 71 pitches in his last MiLB start on June 21st so I don’t think this necessarily has to be a short start if he’s doing well.

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• Skubal at 4 might be lowest he lands on a board all year. These are razor-thin margins between the Top 4 and while he hasn’t been his untouchable self since returning from surgery, his 31% K and 28% K-BB are both better than his pre-injury marks. 6 HRs have been the problem in his 3 starts back. He gets the worst matchup of the 4 from a season standpoint, but Judge-less NYY is down to 17th vL over the L14 days.
• Miller is listed as Opener (and his stats are shown in the chart) but they don’t do traditional Openers and he should get a regular start’s worth of innings if he’s doing well. Castillo could get whatever’s left and if he doesn’t falter like last time, he could be in line for a Win or even a 3-inning Save (though Muñoz has had 3 days off now so they’ll likely go to him if it’s close), so there’s some merit to starting him, too.  It’s Woo. Chart had Miller/Castillo but it’s been updated to show Miller on Thursday and Castillo on Friday. SEA-LAA has a weird Wednesday off tomorrow for the World Cup so they’ll finish the series Thursday before TOR comes to visit. Woo is obviously a 3-x start. I’m on a meeting right now so I didn’t update his stats, I’ll try to get back to it today, but it’s not like y’all need his season stats to know to start him.
• Even after coming unglued late last time out v. CHC (6 ER), McLean still has a 3.21 ERA/1.18 WHIP in the last month of work. He’s grinding through his rookie year a bit, but there’s been way more good than bad.
• The slightly arbitrary 30-day cutoff giveth and taketh… it perfectly sliced off a May 25th Dud for McLean, but just missed 7 scoreless IP for Early that would bring his recent ERA down from 5.06 to 4.01! I don’t even need that start included to still fee strongly about sticking w/Early, though. He still has a 26% K and 17% K-BB despite the 5.06 ERA/1.46 WHIP. The Nats are great vL, but I just can’t see sitting him.
• The Pirates clipped Wrobleski in Pittsburgh but he immediately bounced back with 2 gems (TBR, at MIN) despite continuing his meager K-BB (12% in those 2 gms; 10% on the yr). Will he struggle in Sacramento? Maybe, but the reason I remain undaunted in starting him in the Win upside even if he’s not at his best. Although I say that and all 9 of his Ws have come in great outings and he didn’t come close to winning any of his 3 bad starts. Ah well, we’re running him in Sactown!
• Roupp spent the whole trying to work off the 8 ER he opened the month with and back-to-back 6 IP/2 ER outings certainly helped with that. Another brilliant matchup affords him a great chance to stay hot.
• Boyd had a decent outing fresh off the IL, keeping the Mets scoreless for 4.7 IP, but he was a bit lucky, too, with 4 BB and 4 H. He catches a surging SDP team, too, sitting 8th the L14 days vL.
• Probably should’ve been a bit more cautious with Alcantara heading into Coors, so I won’t double down on that misstep with a blind Eury reco. He’s the more dominant pitcher which gives him a better shot to survive Coors, but the Rockies have found their home groove. In fact, they’re #1 overall vR in the last month so it’s not just Coors (worth noting they did get a series in Vegas, but still, they’re clearly doing more than just taking advantage of nice parks).
• Cameron/Sproat are classic matchup streams, both catching bottom-7 teams v. their respective handedness. Cameron started the month strong before hitting some bumps recently, including v. the same Rays he’ll face today but I’ll take the shot at home. Sproat is coming off his best start of the season: 6 scoreless w/10 Ks against the same Reds he’ll face today. The only time he had two solid starts in a row he was likely on everyone’s bench as they came at COL and at ATH! I guess his TOR (6.7 IP/1 ER)/at DET (5.3 IP/3 ER) combo in mid-April was fine but with a 5.43 ERA, the good starts are scant in total volume, let alone pairing them up.

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