• Daily SP Chart archive
• SP Rankings

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart.

The chart includes their performance for 2025 until we get some actual data for this year (I changed over in late-April last year), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (not a perfect solution as teams change in the offseason, but better than using just a few days of data from this year), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations, you don’t really need a shiny stat to be convinced on starting guys like that. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment and I’ll get you an answer when I can. I try to do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• SP Rankings

And just like that, we’re back! Welcome to the Daily SP Chart.

The chart includes their performance for 2025 until we get some actual data for this year (I changed over in late-April last year), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (not a perfect solution as teams change in the offseason, but better than using just a few days of data from this year), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations, you don’t really need a shiny stat to be convinced on starting Kirby or Sale. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment and I’ll get you an answer when I can. I try to do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.

Read the rest of this entry »

3/27/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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2-START PITCHERS FOR WK1 (Mar 30th)

• AUTO-START: Max Fried
• Chase Burns vs. PIT, at TEX 3:08
• Edward Cabrera vs. LAA, at CLE 4:00
• Luis Castillo vs. NYY, at LAA 6:05
• Ranger Suarez at HOU, vs. SD 8:15
• Kris Bubic vs. MIN, vs. MIL 9:41
• Kodai Senga at STL, at SF 11:00

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• SP Rankings

And just like that, we’re back! Welcome to the Daily SP Chart.

The chart includes their performance for 2025 until we get some actual data for this year (I changed over in late-April last year), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (not a perfect solution as teams change in the offseason, but better than using just a few days of data from this year), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations, you don’t really need a shiny stat to be convinced on starting Kirby or Sale. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment and I’ll get you an answer when I can. I try to do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions. Read the rest of this entry »

3/26/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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• Paul Sporer | Twitter | Bluesky – Host
• Justin Mason | Twitter | Bluesky – Co-Host/Producer
• Joe Orrico | Twitter | Bluesky – Co-Host

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• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

SHALLOW LEAGUE PICKUPS

• Catcher – 3:08
  • Keibert Ruiz
  • Carson Kelly
  • Danny Jansen
• Corner – 9:35
  • Marcelo Mayer
  • TJ Rumfield
  • Spencer Horwitz

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Schedule is obviously one of the biggest drivers for picking up a streamer. You can’t plan too far out because things can change on a dime, especially in cold weather spots this early in the season. But let’s see if the first few weeks can offer some worthy pickups.

Brandon Williamson – PIT, at MIA, maybe LAA

Injuries cleared a path for Williamson to sneak into the rotation and he sets up beautifully against two of the worst teams versus lefties last year. Pittsburgh was 29th in wOBA and Miami was 23rd. Pittsburgh did lengthen their lineup, but two of the three big adds are lefties (Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’Hearn). The Angels outing is a maybe as Nick Lodolo could be back, but then Williamson might shift into Chase Burns’s follower which is still a great role. Burns is slated to be part of the LAA series and then will pitch at MIN/at TBR if things hold, but that’s looking way too far out to have any real confidence in it. Pick him up for PIT/at MIA and we’ll go from there. The dream is Ryan Yarbrough 2.0 and they let him follow Burns (or Lowder) all year.

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3/20/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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• Paul Sporer | Twitter | Bluesky – Host
• Justin Mason | Twitter | Bluesky – Co-Host/Producer
• Joe Orrico | Twitter | Bluesky – Co-Host

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2026 STARTER PREVIEW Pt. 3

GOOD LAST YEAR 2:22

Italics means the player was discussed in detail

• Ryne Nelson
• Braxton Ashcraft
• Mike Burrows
• Chad Patrick
• Noah Cameron
• Casey Mize
• Will Warren
• Jacob Latz
• Shane Smith
• Simeon Woods Richardson
• Justin Wrobleski/River Ryan

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Changelog

• 12/23/2025 – First Release
• 1/6/2026 – Huge update | Expanded the rankings by 10 | Adjusted tiers and added a ton of new profiles.
• 1/21/2026 – Smaller update today with ADP & $ values getting a refresh along with these player updates: Ryan Weathers trade update | Ranger Suárez signing | Profiles added for: Ryan Pepiot, Nick Lodolo, Sandy Alcantara, Michael King
• 2/5/2026 – Expanded to 170 | Tons of major rankings shifts | New tier | Profiles added for: Chase Burns, Nolan McLean, Carlos Rodón (sorta), Bryce Miller, Clay Holmes, Troy Melton, Bailey Ober update, Framber Valdez update!
• 2/25/2026 – Expanded to 190 | Tons of major rankings shifts | New tier | Injury Updates – Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Blake Snell, Spencer Schwellenbach, Shane Bieber, Reese Olson, Hurston Waldrep, Merrill Kelly 켈리 | Profile Updates – Quinn Priester, Chad Patrick, Ryne Nelson, Grant Holmes, Troy Melton, Roki Sasaki, Gavin Stone, Justin Wrobleski, Bubba Chandler, Robby Snelling, Andrew Painter, Logan Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, Ryan Weiss 와이스, Justin Steele, Andrew Abbott, Josiah Gray, Brandon Pfaadt, Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, Jacob Lopez, Chris Bassitt | Signings – Zac Gallen, Justin Verlander, Nick Martinez, Aaron Civale, Jordan Montgomery, Adrian Houser | Removed – López (TJ), Schwellebach (elbow surgery), Waldrep (elbow surgery), Bowden Francis (out for the year)
• 3/5/2026 – Tons of major rankings shifts | Injury Updates – Shane McClanahan, Bryce Miller, Quinn Priester, Troy Melton | Profile Updates – Gavin Williams, Cam Schlittler, Cade Horton, Nathan Eovaldi, Tanner Bibee, Edward Cabrera, Luis Castillo, Shane Baz, Matthew Boyd, Jacob Misiorowski, Robert Gasser, Kyle Harrison, Taj Bradley, Ian Seymour, Casey Mize, Noah Cameron, Brayan Bello, Shane Smith, Joey Cantillo, Jack Leiter, Cristian Javier, Braxton Ashcraft | Removed – Tyler Wells (RP)
• 3/14/2026 – Literally just wanted to update Hunter Greene before heading to Houston for the Italy-PR WBC game. More thorough update coming next week for the final push of draft season!
• 3/20/2026 – Finally update before draft season. I’m sorry I didn’t log every change, but I swept the entire board. I cut it back down to 170, focusing on expected rotations plus a handful of prospects and injury guys. I will answer as many questions as I can in the comments this evening, tomorrow morning, and then I’ll do another sweep Sunday morning. Good luck in the final big draft weekend!

Ranking Methodology

• ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Online Champions Leagues.
• $ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
• ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
• Change is the difference in rankings since the last update
• 5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net.

Here is the opening look at the top 150 pitchers for the 2026 season. I’ll have plenty of updates including some tier updates/changes as I dive deeper on players and figure out better fits for them. I will eventually expand the list, too. I cut it at 150 for now just to have an endpoint, but I have something like 264 ranked. Drop a comment if you have questions on anyone, even if I haven’t written them up yet, but check back regularly for more profile additions.

Jan. 6th: First big update brings an expansion, lots of ranking changes, and tons of new profiles. Starting from this update forward, I will track the guys who change but there were just so many with this update that I didn’t end up keeping track of everything.

Jan. 21st: Smaller update here refreshes the ADP & dollar values along with some of the recent moves plus a handful of new profiles. We’re supposed to get a bad ice storm here in Austin this weekend and anyyyy measure of inclement weather can eat up our garbage electrical grid so I’m reluctant to guarantee a weekend update because of that.

Feb. 5th: If you’re coming on the morning of the 5th looking for the update promised in my chat yesterday, it’s being moved to the afternoon.

Feb. 25th: Huge update with tons of news, Spring Training starting, a few more key signings, and many added profiles!

Mar. 5th: Several new profiles added of interesting mid-to-late round targets who could pop off this year, plus a lot of rankings movement as I continue to battle test them in drafts of various formats.

Mar. 14th: Just a quick update to get Hunter Greene updated. I’m headed to Houston for Italy-Puerto Rico today so I’ll get a more thorough update out early next week for the final big draft week!

Mar. 20th: Huge overhaul. Shortened the list back down to 170, but I didn’t track all the changes and new profiles. You can definitely do a Ctrl-F search for “Mar. 20th” to get the those updates and then there’s a bunch of new profiles, too.

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3/19/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow Our Socials

• Paul Sporer | Twitter | Bluesky – Host
• Justin Mason | Twitter | Bluesky – Co-Host/Producer

PATREON

• Join our Patreon for live video feeds of each show
• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

2026 STARTER PREVIEW Pt. 5

LEFTIES

• Ranger Suarez 4:14
• Kris Bubic 8:11
• Shane McClanahan 11:23
• Carlos Rodón 19:14
• Ryan Weathers 21:55
• Matthew Boyd 25:14
• Andrew Abbott 28:42

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