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Starting Pitcher Chart – April 8th, 2025

Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

 

Daily SP Chart archive

Welcome back to the Daily SP Chart! I figure the first weekend was pretty straightforward which is why I didn’t fire it up on Thursday. Now that we’re in the swing of things, it’s time to get it going again.

The chart includes their performance for 2024 until we get some actual data for this year (I changed over in late-April last year), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (not a perfect solution as teams change in the offseason, but better than using just a few days of data from this year), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Another gem for Hunter Greene, coming an out shy of a shutout. I won’t run from my L if he pops off this year, not conceding after three starts, either. He does look amazing, though… does Sugarfree Red Bull go well with crow?

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Starting Pitcher Chart – April 7th, 2025

Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Daily SP Chart archive

Pardon my tardiness this morning, I was on the Rotowire Fantasy Baseball podcast last night and wasn’t able to finish up the boards before crashing out. I’m working on a new format so the comments show up underneath the player data, but my first few attempts went south so I got frustrated and just went back to the normal setup. If and when I get it working properly, it’ll look like this:

View post on imgur.com

Welcome back to the Daily SP Chart! I figure the first weekend was pretty straightforward which is why I didn’t fire it up on Thursday. Now that we’re in the swing of things, it’s time to get it going again.

The chart includes their performance for 2024 until we get some actual data for this year (I changed over in late-April last year), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (not a perfect solution as teams change in the offseason, but better than using just a few days of data from this year), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1397 – 2-Start Pitchers for Week 2

4/4/25

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INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

2-STARTS FOR WEEK 2

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Starting Pitcher Chart – April 4th, 2025

© Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their performance for 2024 until we get some actual data for this year (I changed over in late-April last year), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (not a perfect solution as teams change in the offseason, but better than using just a few days of data from this year), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Starter Notes April 4, 2025
RK PITCHER GAME 10 12 15+ IP ERA WHIP K-BB wOBA RK NOTE
1 Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD at PHI x x x 90 3.00 1.11 23% 9th
2 Max Fried NYY at PIT x x x 174 3.25 1.16 15% 17th
3 Spencer Schwellenbach ATL v MIA x x x 123 3.35 1.04 21% 21st
4 Jack Flaherty DET v CHW x x x 162 3.17 1.07 24% 30th
5 Gavin Williams CLE at LAA x x x 76 4.86 1.37 14% 27th
6 Shota Imanaga CHC v SDP x x x 173 2.91 1.02 21% 19th
7 Seth Lugo KCR v BAL x x x 206 3.00 1.09 16% 5th
8 Justin Verlander SFG v SEA x x x 90 5.48 1.38 12% 8th
9 Kevin Gausman TOR at NYM x x x 181 3.83 1.22 14% 11th
10 Brandon Pfaadt ARI at WSN x x x 181 4.71 1.24 19% 20th WSN does run six lefties (well 3, and 3 switch-hitters) and that group comprise their 6 best hitters
11 Tylor Megill NYM v TOR x x x 78 4.04 1.31 18% 12th Great at HOU in his season debut (5 IP/1 ER/6 Ks/1 BB)
12 José Soriano LAA v CLE x x x 113 3.42 1.20 11% 26th Dominating CHW doesn’t add to my confidence, but I’m open to starting him anywhere
13 Max Meyer MIA at ATL x x 57 5.68 1.42 11% 17th ATL is still a scary offense despite their brutal start, but Meyer also has major upside so I’m OK to go at ATL while they’re down
14 Nick Martinez CIN at MIL x x 142 3.10 1.03 17% 7th A 3-run 6th inning (incl. 2-run HR v. Chapman) spoiled his season debut; 5 K/1 BB was nice, though
15 Zack Littell TBR at TEX x x 156 3.63 1.25 17% 24th Smoking COL at home doesn’t greatly change his outlook, but TEX is sputtering so I don’t hate a stream here
16 Tyler Mahle TEX v TBR x 12 4.97 1.42 11% 29th Maybe the spring concerns had merit? Brutal 4 BB limited him to fewer than 2 IP in season debut
17 Jesús Luzardo PHI v LAD x 66 5.00 1.25 13% 2nd I know he was brilliant at WSN, but let’s be very careful v. LAD
18 Mitch Keller PIT v NYY x 178 4.25 1.30 15% 1st I don’t have any issue sitting him, even at home
19 Walker Buehler BOS v STL 75 5.38 1.55 10% 15th Not cutting off 1 start, but the debut was rooough and I’d like to see something before diving in
20 Jonathan Cannon CHW at DET 124 4.49 1.33 10% 22nd
21 Osvaldo Bido ATH at COL 63 3.41 1.09 14% 16th
22 Ryan Feltner COL v ATH 162 4.49 1.34 12% 23rd
23 Jake Irvin WSN v ARI 187 4.41 1.20 14% 3rd
24 Erick Fedde STL at BOS 177 3.30 1.16 14% 6th
25 Randy Vásquez SDP at CHC 98 4.87 1.51 8% 14th
26 Dean Kremer BAL at KCR 129 4.10 1.24 13% 13th
27 Tyler Alexander MIL v CIN 107 5.10 1.24 15% 22nd
28 Luis F. Castillo SEA at SFG #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 25th
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1396 – Unsettled Closer Situations

4/2/25

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

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Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – April 2nd, 2025

Transcript is now available, thanks for coming out!

1:03

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!!!

1:03

Theodore: ROS would you add Hicks over Roupp or Mize?

1:03

Paul Sporer: I would not. I’m not a big Hicks-as-SP fan. Great start yesterday and there will be gems, but he started brilliantly last yr, too… I just don’t trust him

1:03

Mike: Who do you like, if anyone, to add as a potential closer in Detroit?

1:04

Paul Sporer: I don’t mind going for Kahnle or Brieske, just gotta know there isn’t a lockdown A-guy right now and likely won’t be under Hinch

1:04

Guest: Hi Paul, Toglia or J Walker in a roto league?

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Starting Pitcher Chart – April 2nd, 2025

Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Daily SP Chart archive

Welcome back to the Daily SP Chart! The chart includes their performance for 2024 until we get some actual data for this year (I changed over in late-April last year), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (not a perfect solution as teams change in the offseason, but better than using just a few days of data from this year), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

It’s a very straightforward Wednesday with 6 of my Top 10 and 20 of the 30 landing in my Top 60 pitchers. Let me know if you have any questions or comments below! I stay on top of the comments so in a case like Monday where Thomas Harrington was called up, I’ll definitely get in there and give my thoughts if someone asks about them.

Starter Notes April 2, 2025
RK PITCHER GAME 10 12 15+ IP ERA WHIP K-BB 2024 wOBA RK
1 Tarik Skubal DET at SEA x x x 192 2.39 0.92 26% 24th
2 Paul Skenes PIT at TBR x x x 133 1.96 0.95 27% 29th
3 Zack Wheeler PHI v COL x x x 200 2.57 0.96 22% 16th
4 Garrett Crochet BOS at BAL x x x 146 3.58 1.07 30% 7th
5 Cole Ragans KCR at MIL x x x 186 3.14 1.14 20% 13th
6 Blake Snell LAD v ATL x x x 104 3.12 1.05 24% 4th
7 Framber Valdez HOU v SFG x x x 176 2.91 1.11 16% 9th
8 Dylan Cease SDP v CLE x x x 189 3.47 1.07 21% 26th
9 Pablo López MIN at CHW x x x 185 4.08 1.19 20% 30th
10 Luis Castillo SEA v DET x x x 175 3.64 1.17 18% 22nd
11 Zac Gallen ARI at NYY x x x 148 3.65 1.26 16% 1st
12 Hunter Greene CIN v TEX x x x 150 2.75 1.02 18% 24th
13 Sonny Gray STL v LAA x x x 166 3.84 1.09 24% 27th
14 Freddy Peralta MIL v KCR x x x 173 3.68 1.21 18% 13th
15 Ryan Pepiot TBR v PIT x x x 130 3.60 1.15 17% 28th
16 MacKenzie Gore WSN at TOR x x x 166 3.90 1.42 16% 28th
17 Zach Eflin BAL v BOS x x x 165 3.59 1.15 16% 6th
18 Clay Holmes NYM at MIA x x x 63 3.14 1.30 17% 21st
19 Yusei Kikuchi LAA at STL x x x 175 4.05 1.20 22% 23rd
20 Carlos Rodón NYY v ARI x x x 175 3.96 1.22 19% 1st
21 Jeffrey Springs ATH v CHC x x 33 3.27 1.36 18% 16th
22 Jameson Taillon CHC at ATH x x 165 3.27 1.13 14% 23rd
23 Sean Burke CHW v MIN x x 19 1.42 1.00 20% 10th
24 Landen Roupp SFG at HOU x x 50 3.58 1.37 10% 8th
25 Jack Leiter TEX at CIN x 35 8.83 1.71 8% 19th
26 Ben Lively CLE at SDP 151 3.81 1.25 11% 4th
27 Easton Lucas TOR v WSN 11 10.80 2.23 2% 26th
28 Kyle Freeland COL at PHI 113 5.24 1.41 12% 3rd
29 Bryce Elder ATL at LAD 49 6.52 1.63 13% 2nd
30 Connor Gillispie MIA v NYM 8 2.25 1.13 9% 11th
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

Starting Pitcher Chart – April 1st, 2025

Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Daily SP Chart archive

Welcome back to the Daily SP Chart! The chart includes their performance for 2024 until we get some actual data for this year (I changed over in late-April last year), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (not a perfect solution as teams change in the offseason, but better than using just a few days of data from this year), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Let me know if you have any questions or comments below!

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Starting Pitcher Chart – March 31st, 2025

Mike Watters-Imagn Images

Daily SP Chart archive

Welcome back to the Daily SP Chart! I figure the first weekend was pretty straightforward which is why I didn’t fire it up on Thursday. Now that we’re in the swing of things, it’s time to get it going again.

The chart includes their performance for 2024 until we get some actual data for this year (I changed over in late-April last year), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (not a perfect solution as teams change in the offseason, but better than using just a few days of data from this year), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

The 2-Start chart is a Monday feature ranking the expected 2-start pitchers. For now, the data is for 2024 until we start getting to 4-5 starts for guys. I am a bit riskier early in the season when it comes to 2-start guys. It does a bit more pressure on the ratios if you eat too many blowups, but we’ve got 6 months to work and ratios can move a lot all year long. And it’s not like I’m just frivolously starting any 2-start arm, either, just that I’ll take on some tougher starts to get the potential gem against one of the worst teams in the league.

Let me know if you have any questions or comments below!

 

Starter Notes March 31, 2025
RK PITCHER GAME 10 12 15+ IP ERA WHIP K-BB wOBA RK 2024 NOTE
1 Tyler Glasnow LAD v ATL x x x 134 3.49 0.95 25% 17th
2 Cristopher Sánchez PHI v COL x x x 181 3.32 1.24 14% 21st
3 Drew Rasmussen TBR v PIT x x x 28 2.83 1.08 25% 28th
4 David Peterson NYM at MIA x x x 121 2.90 1.29 11% 29th I’ll take on a lot of tough starts to get at MIA and D Pete’s v TOR this wknd isn’t close to the riskiest
5 Jackson Jobe DET at SEA x x x 4 0.00 0.50 6% 18th Diving in headfirst with one of the best pitching prospects in baseball
6 Ronel Blanco HOU v SFG x x x 167 2.80 1.09 14% 25th
7 Kris Bubic KCR at MIL x x x 30 2.67 1.02 28% 13th I’m in on the Bubic hype train this year
8 Ben Brown CHC at ATH x x x 55 3.58 1.08 20% 23rd Him securing the rotation spot snuck up on me but I’m excited to see what he can do; easily running him here, interested in the 2-step
9 Chris Paddack MIN at CHW x x x 88 4.99 1.39 15% 30th Still allowed 2.0 HR9 in ST, but 23% K-BB and 14% SwStr, too; not a slamdunk for 2-step w/v HOU
10 Bowden Francis TOR v WSN x x 103 3.30 0.93 17% 20th Will be watching to see if he can sustain a consistently low BABIP or if he can’t, does he have the skills to survive?
11 Kumar Rocker TEX at CIN x x 11 3.86 1.54 15% 19th Not a great landing spot for his debut, but I think I take it on to get the 2-step v. TBR this wknd
12 Brady Singer CIN v TEX x x 179 3.71 1.27 15% 24th
13 Cade Povich BAL v BOS x x 79 5.20 1.43 10% 11th Strong spring earned him a spot, but the heat gets turned up immediately w/BOS & at KCR to start the season
14 Emerson Hancock SEA v DET x x 60 4.75 1.34 8% 22nd Super boring, but neither DET or at SFG completely scare me so might be worth the spin, mostly in deep lgs, though
15 Tyler Anderson LAA at STL x x 179 3.81 1.29 9% 23rd Definitely more of a deep league play but it’s not a terrible 2-step w/CLE on Sunday
16 Grant Holmes ATL at LAD x 68 3.56 1.19 20% 2nd It’s probably prudent to sit him here despite how much I love him for the year… I would start him in a weekly to get MIA this wknd
17 Michael Soroka WSN at TOR x 79 4.74 1.38 12% 12th Big start here to see where he’s at after 2 good, 2 bad starts in ST w/his last 2 being the duds; mega dud here would raise some alarm bells
18 Miles Mikolas STL v LAA x 171 5.35 1.28 13% 27th
19 Kyle Hart SDP v CLE x 0 0.00 0.00 0% 8th
20 Jordan Hicks SFG at HOU 109 4.10 1.45 10% 8th I just don’t want to deal w/the headache of Hicks as an SP
21 Sean Newcomb BOS at BAL 10 6.30 1.70 -2% 7th I gotta see something before I jump on board here
22 Luis L. Ortiz CLE at SDP 135 3.32 1.11 12% 4th Brutal spring included 15% BB and 1.5 HR9
23 Carmen Mlodzinski PIT at TBR 50 3.38 1.18 13% 29th
24 Cal Quantrill MIA v NYM 148 4.98 1.52 6% 11th
25 Martín Pérez CHW v MIN 135 4.53 1.48 10% 12th
26 Germán Márquez COL at PHI 4 6.75 2.25 -5% 9th
27 Joey Estes ATH v CHC 127 5.01 1.23 12% 14th
28 Elvin Rodriguez MIL v KCR 0 0.00 0.00 0% 13th
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

 

2-Start Chart for the Week of Mar. 31st
RANK PITCHER TYPE MATCHUPS IP ERA WHIP K-BB Pitch+
1 Corbin Burnes 1 at NYY/at WSN 194.1 2.92 1.10 17% 106
2 Tyler Glasnow 1 ATL/at PHI 134 3.49 0.95 25% 102
3 Cristopher Sánchez 2 COL/LAD 181.2 3.32 1.24 14% 103
4 Drew Rasmussen 2 PIT/at TEX 28.2 2.83 1.08 25% 102
5 Jackson Jobe 2 at SEA/CHW 4 0.00 0.50 6% 97
6 Ronel Blanco 2 SFG/at MIN 167.1 2.80 1.09 14% 103
7 Kris Bubic 3 at MIL/BAL 30.1 2.67 1.02 28% 115
8 David Peterson 3 at MIA/TOR 121 2.90 1.29 11% 98
9 Grant Holmes 3 at LAD/MIA 68.1 3.56 1.19 20% 99
10 Brady Singer 3 TEX/at MIL 179.2 3.71 1.27 15% 99
11 Bowden Francis 4 WSN/at NYM 103.2 3.30 0.93 17% 102
12 Ben Brown 4 at ATH/SDP 55.1 3.58 1.08 20% 93
13 Kumar Rocker 4 at CIN/TBR 11.2 3.86 1.54 15% 104
14 Michael Soroka 4 at TOR/ARI 79.2 4.74 1.38 12% 91
15 Will Warren 4 ARI/at PIT 22.2 10.32 1.90 17% 103
16 Cade Povich 4 BOS/at KCR 79.2 5.20 1.43 10% 98
17 Emerson Hancock 4 DET/at SFG 60.2 4.75 1.34 8% 101
18 Germán Márquez 5 at PHI/ATH 4 6.75 2.25 -5% 96
19 Tyler Anderson 5 at STL/CLE 179.1 3.81 1.29 9% 98
20 Chris Paddack 5 at CHW/HOU 88.1 4.99 1.39 15% 113
21 Kyle Hart 5 CLE/at CHC 0 0.00 0.00 0%
22 Sean Newcomb 5 at BAL/STL 10 6.30 1.70 -2% 82
23 Luis L. Ortiz 5 at SDP/at LAA 135.2 3.32 1.11 12% 100
24 Miles Mikolas 5 LAA/at BOS 171.2 5.35 1.28 13% 108
25 Jordan Hicks 6 at HOU/SEA 109.2 4.10 1.45 10% 94
26 Martín Pérez 5 MIN/at DET 135 4.53 1.48 10% 104
27 Cal Quantrill 6 NYM/at ATL 148.1 4.98 1.52 6% 97
28 Joey Estes 6 CHC/at COL 127.2 5.01 1.23 12% 107
TYPE Key:
1 – Auto-Start | 2 – All Formats | 3 – Most Formats | 4 – Some Formats | 5 – YOLO | 6 – Hard Pass

The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1394 – Opening Day: Closer Crashouts

3/28/25

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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PATREON

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SMALL SAMPLE THEATER

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