In a recent episode of the podcast, I spoke with Alex Fast about some potential breakout starting pitchers at different levels and I really enjoyed that so I want to do the same for hitting. Today, we are going to identify some players who be the next Top 75 players. Just to give you an idea of that range, hitters like Pete Alonso and Adam Duvall were just inside in the Top 75 while Eric Hosmer and Kevin Pillar were juuust outside. So these are solid fantasy contributors for sure.

Sean Murphy, C | 205 ADP, 280 Player Rater

Murphy has been strong in two small MLB samples, totaling exactly 200 PA of a 132 wRC+ with 11 HR. The 27% K rate is born of no plan at the dish or a stark inability to make contact meaning there could be some improvement there, pushing his .237 AVG northward. The power will drive this profile and be a huge factor in whether or not he can reach this level while he also needs to be much closer to his MiLB .267 AVG, too.

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11/12/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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2021 2B PREVIEW

On the Rise

• Jake Cronenworth (5:00)
• Dylan Moore (13:17)
• Tommy Edman (24:12)
• Nick Madrigal (31:00)
• Nick Solak (37:50)
• Gavin Lux (42:00)
• Andrés Giménez (47:37)
• Garrett Hampson (52:12)
• Ty France (55:55)

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11/11/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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2021 BREAKOUT STARTERS

Top 50 (Overall player, not SP) Going Pick 90-150 (5:00)

• Paul: Pablo López
• Alex: Lance McCullers Jr.

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11/10/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Managerial news

2021 2B Preview

Stars

• Ozzie Albies
• DJ LeMahieu
• Whit Merrifield

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The 60-game season fostered a lot of unexpected stat lines. Of course, the standard six-month seasons deliver them, too, but obviously the smaller sample breeds more volatility so let’s take a look at four big risers and see if we want to buy in for 2021.

Alex Dickerson, OF SFG | .298/.371/.576, 10 HR, 27 RBI, 28 R, 0 SB in 170 PA

Let’s get this out of the way immediately. He did get 30% of his home runs in one beautiful night at Coors Field, but that alone didn’t sustain his line. In his final 66 PA after the 3-homer game, he hit .356/.424/.627 with 3 HR, 7 RBI, and 12 R. He did have a meager .694 OPS in the run up to that career night, but a .231 BABIP was doing some heavy lifting there as he was still pacing toward a useful 22 HR/76 RBI full season.

His massive platoon split tempers the fantasy upside. He has a .278/.348/.514 line with 24 HR, 81 RBI, 84 R, and 4 SB in 551 PA v. righties while posting just a .687 OPS in 102 PA v. lefties. This will likely keep him relegated to a platoon role with guys like Austin Slater and Darin Ruf 러프 filling in for Dickerson against lefties. As such, it makes Dickerson a deeper league option.

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10/29/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Kolten Wong Non-Tendered

2021 1B Preview

Superstars

• Cody Bellinger
• Freddie Freeman

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I love shopping in the middle and late rounds for pitching. It’s not that I won’t buy studs, I love doing that, too, but finding gems who greatly overperform their draft slot can be instrumental to winnings leagues. I’ve already started analyzing the pitching pool thanks to Justin’s #TooEarlyMocks and here’s a handful of guys I’ll be eyeing as later pickups, especially in any winter drafts I do as they’re all priced to buy right now.

John Means | Baltimore Orioles

Velocity gains didn’t net early results as he managed just a 10.13 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in first four starts. Excellent changeup from 2019 wasn’t there but he regained the feel and put up a 2.73 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over the final six starts (33 IP). The changeup had a 4.2 pitch value during that run and he maintained the velo boost. The home runs are still concerning with a 2.5 rate in 2020 and 1.6 for his career. If he can start keeping the ball in the yard more often, there’s some low-3.00s ERA potential here especially if the new velo and strikeout rate maintain.

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10/27/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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2021 TOO EARLY MOCKS

The Closing Pool

• Josh Hader & Liam Hendriks only top 100s
• Who’s reliable beyond that?
• Changing of the guard
• Up and Comers

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10/22/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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2021 TOO EARLY MOCK HITTERS

The Catching Pool

Catchers Discussed: J.T. Realmuto, Salvador Perez, Christian Vazquez, Gary Sánchez, Austin Nola, Sean Murphy, Daulton Varsho, James McCann, Mitch Garver, Max Stassi, Joey Bart, Danny Jansen, Tyler Stephenson, Omar Narváez

Where is Hitter X Goin?

• Yordan Alvarez 88
• Kyle Lewis 103
• Randy Arozarena 111
• Alec Bohm 119
• Dylan Carlson 162
• Wander Franco 176
• Gavin Lux 192
• Jo Adell 199

Favorite Post-200 Hitters

• Cedric Mullins
• Ke’Bryan Hayes
• Ty France
• Kolten Wong
• Carter Kieboom
• Evan White
• Cesar Hernandez
• Elvis Andrus

—

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Approximately 91 minutes of joyous analysis.

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Justin is running his annual Too Early Mocks and the wonderful Smada has once again compiled the average draft data for our perusal. Check out my 11 interesting pitching prices, too.

Christian Yelich 10.9 ADP – I was very interested in seeing how much the superstar would fall on the heels of a disappointing 2020 and unfortunately the market hasn’t overreacted as I’d have loved to catch a huge discount. Instead, he was still a firm 1st rounder ranging from pick 7 to 13 (these were 15-team leagues) and with good reason. It’s not at all unreasonable to suggest he’d have worked through his issues versus righties (1.068 OPS vL) in a full season as his .213 BABIP would’ve likely worked its way back to his career .354 while the 11-point jump in strikeout came in lieu of lower swinging strike and O-swing rates. I’m happily buying, even at this price.

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