Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – 1/20/21 by Paul Sporer January 20, 2021 Transcript is now available! 2:03 Paul Sporer: OK sorry about that, had some technical issues, think we’re good to go 2:07 Greg: What do you think about Dustin May this year? Is he locked into a rotation spot? 2:10 Paul Sporer: He’s got one right now, but normal Dodger shenanigans plus the short 2-mo. season tells me he won’t necessarily get 30+ starts. I’d tab him closer to 23-25. 2:10 Ryan: Are you on the Zac Plesac hype train? 2:11 Paul Sporer: I feel pretty good about him. I wrote some things about him here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2020-fastball-usage-decliners/ I’m not sure I’m going top 20 all the time, but I’m not too far off 2:11 Nick Burkett: I love all the SP’s the Marlins are rolling out, tell me I’m crazy. 2:12 Paul Sporer: You’re not, but I just worry about the rising ADPs on guys like Lopez, Sixto, and Alcantara, but I believe in the whole trio tbh 2:12 Jb: Who are the best 2:12 Paul Sporer: We are! 2:12 Henry: Bauer to the Dodgers pushes who out of their rotation? 2:12 Paul Sporer: The aforementioned May 2:12 AJ Deer: When are ATC projections going to be posted ??????? 2:12 Paul Sporer: Not sure, tbh. Would have to ask Ariel on that 2:13 Paul Sporer: I just got word that they’ll actually be going in tonight! 2:20 Donald: More likely to eclipse 450 ABs and 15 HRs: Yandy or Benintendi? 2:20 Paul Sporer: Beni! 2:21 Paul Sporer: I put the ! but I’m not that geeked about him tbh 2:26 Paul Sporer: Alright my sincere apologies, I had a deluge of things at once but y’all have my attention now 2:26 Guest: Thoughts on Rhys Hoskins in 2021? He was solid before getting hurt last year. How would you rank him against say.. Rizzo and Goldy? 2:32 Paul Sporer: Yeah he still had a strong 139 wRC+ so healthy Hoskins still rakes. I think I’d favor him over the other 2 because they’re more expensive while I see the trio as quite close. Rizzo & Goldy ADP’ing in the top 100 while Hoskins is in the 170s. Gimme the discount. 2:32 Steve: You think Kyle Tucker is for real? Some scouts hated his swing, but ZiPS and Steamer seem to like him… 2:33 Paul Sporer: I love Tucker. I think he’s a power-speed stud with 25/25 potential in a full season. He’ll have that full season opportunity this year and I’m excited for it 2:33 Tim: Best center fielder free agent 2:34 Paul Sporer: I’d say JBJ. Elite defense and an inconsistent bat, but we’ve seen flourishes multiple times 2:34 AGN: When the Brantley deal is official, which OF (or OFs) are the Jays trading? 2:36 Paul Sporer: Impossible to say. Gurriel and Teoscar have more value than Grichuk on the market, IMO. 2:36 Kelder23: Am I the only one worried about Darvish? Sooooo inconsistent in his career, and injuries, and 34…. 2:39 Paul Sporer: You’re probably not the only one, but I think your reasoning is flawed. He’s definitely not sooooo inconsistent. In fact, his injury riddled 2018 was the only thing close to a bad season and this new efficient approach that started in the 2019 2H has him pitching his best ball ever. Yes he’s older and has a history of injuries, but the health risk is inherent in pitching so it’s really about the age. As a multi-leaguer, I tend to look at players in terms of shares of them and while I wouldn’t stock up on Darvish, I’m certainly open to making him my ace in a league or two. 2:39 Kelder23: I am way down on Pete Alonso. I don’t think he’s as good as Dom Smith and they play the same position. He’s not in my top 100 and I’m worried he’s Chris Davis. Am I wrong? 2:41 Paul Sporer: The Chris Davis comp doesn’t really hold up, but I’m totally fine being worried about him and I loooove Dom Smith. My primary issue w/Alonso is his price. I just can’t be convinced to pay it given the aforementioned Hoskins going 100 picks later or even guys like Muncy, Olson, Rizzo, and Goldy going 30-40 picks later. Just no chance he’s on my teams. 2:41 Alan: Will Kirk displace Jansen as the Jays’ primary catcher? Thanks! 2:41 Paul Sporer: Only if they trade Jansen with an OF for some pitching. 2:41 Lebron James: What would you project for my batting avg if I played in mlb 2:42 Paul Sporer: Like just starting today w/no experience? Probably .150, which would actually be kind of impressive at his age outta nowhere 2:42 Jasper: Have your expectations for Musgrove increased after moving to an organization that appears to be a more competent in terms of pitching development? 2:43 Paul Sporer: I was already quite in on him and the new Pittsburgh regime had me more confident that Searage & Co. so I’d have still loved him w/PIT. I am more excited about him in SD, but the price is sooooaaarrriiinngggg 2:44 Yoan: Is this the year I really breakout or am I just OK at baseball? 2:45 Paul Sporer: Why wasn’t 2019 a real breakout? He had COVID and explained that it really stayed w/him even after he returned which helps explain his 2020. There was going to be regression regardless, particularly with his BABIP, but I believe in him as a stud 2:45 Michael Brantley: Am i in toronto or not? 2:45 Paul Sporer: Not yet 2:45 Jesse: Who’s the next Indians breakout SP? Civale? Quantrill? Allen? Someone nobody has ever heard of? 2:46 Paul Sporer: I was big on Civale in ’19 and remain so for ’20. Quantrill and McKenzie are firmly on my radar, too 2:46 Fred: Any chance Austin Riley out produces ADP 2:48 Paul Sporer: Definitely possible. He’s got some Adam Duvall-esque upside (he has 2 30-HR seasons on his ledger) and a strong 98 gms the last 2 years. I think .245-.250 w/30+ HR can be done and that would outperform his 200-something ADP 2:48 Billy Beane: Am I just wasting a golden opportunity to contend? Everyone one is getting better… except us. And next year we likely have to move on from Chapman, Olson, & Laureano…. 2:50 Paul Sporer: You don’t work there anymore and they had b2b 97-win seasons before a 36-win division title in the short season. Playoffs are hard. Winning it all is hard. Not sure what else ya want em to do besides become something they aren’t and start spending 2:56 Kate: Any concern over Musgrove’s job security in SD? Not necessarily this year, but next for dynasty? 2:56 Paul Sporer: Only if he regressed and was more of a 4/5 type this year, which I don’t expect. 2:57 bob blyhead: so Tony Gonsolin will not be in the rotation? what a waste 2:57 Paul Sporer: Not to start, but nobody uses just 5 starters outside of a random outlier here and there over the last several years and there’s no chance any team will this year coming off the two month season 3:00 Roy Hobbs: Why is MLB waiting so long to clearly state if there will be a DH or not in the NL? 3:00 Paul Sporer: I think they’re negotiating with the union to get something for it. Nothing easy in MLB for some reason 3:01 Guest: Wait, Billy Beane’s not with the A’s? Since when? 3:02 Paul Sporer: Turns out I jumped the gun. I thought this was a done deal, but I was wrong. Pardon me. https://www.insidehook.com/daily_brief/sports/oakland-billy-beane-as-f… 3:02 Padrinos: Trade Lamet for Pablo Lopez? 3:02 Paul Sporer: I’m not against that, but can you not get more given the Lamet hype train? 3:03 Paul Sporer: I guess the hype train tamped down w/the end of season injury 3:03 Ken: Any idea on when your SP rankings may be out and do you think the season will delay the start til summer? 3:03 Paul Sporer: Next update in early-Feb 3:05 Paul Sporer: OK y’all, sorry for the disjointed start but I gotta get going. There was some change in the coding of the chat, hence the issues. Back next week at the normal time (1pm CT) and we should be able to go beyond an hour!