Well, we got a season! It was only two months so it’s really hard to know exactly how much stock to put it into any of it, but here’s my first look. Obviously this is subject to change and will do so quite a bit as the offseason moves forward, but I feel pretty good about this initial look. I decided not to tier it yet as I’m just not feeling confident in the cutoffs, but rest assured that there are several globs once we get past the first 25 or so. I also just labeled pitchers with their current team, we’ll get into free agent stuff later in the offseason.

Let me know what you think in the comments! I’ll have more detailed ranks out shortly after the playoffs.

Note: Pearson, Richards, and Fiers added after initial post. Meanwhile, I had missed Hudson’s TJ. 

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Every year we get a group of players who emerge from being completely off the radar and turn into fantasy stars. This season might have added to that phenomenon by only being two months of action. After all, how often do we see one of these out of nowhere players have a fast start before tailing off as the six-month grind wears on? Plenty hold up and become something real, but many others fade. Well, no chance to fade with just two months so let’s take a look at this year’s Out of Nowhere All-Stars and assess their ’21 outlook, too.

Note: this is not a complete list, there are definitely more than eight candidates so feel free to include yours in the comments and I’ll give my thoughts on them in a response.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa | C, 3B – TEX

There’s one key letter that completely dictactes everything for IKF: C. His catcher-eligibility drove his fantasy interest this year and for me it was the fact that he wouldn’t have to catch much (turns out he hasn’t caught at all), though I did soft pedal on him a bit when we discussed him for summer drafts. Turns out I should’ve held firm in my love for non-catching catchers.

IKF has enjoyed a career year and while he only has an 88 wRC+, it comes with 3 HR and 8 SB which is enough to make him a top 10 catcher (7th on Razzball’s Player Rater). Unfortunately, he’ll lose the catcher eligibility for 2021 which severely curbs his outlook. He has been the 22nd best 3B and 21st best SS meaning he’s likely an AL only option.

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09/24/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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WEEKEND STREAMERS

Friday

• Taylor Clarke v. COL
• Kyle Wright v. BOS
• Jorge Lopez at TOR
• Chris Mazza at ATL
• Dylan Cease v. CHC
• Spencer Turnbull at KC
• Jose Urquidy at TEX
• Josh Lindblom 린드블럼 v. STL
• Eric Lauer v. STL
• Rick Porcello at WAS
• J.A. Happ v. MIA
• Vince Velasquez at TB
• Mitch Keller at CLE
• Yusei Kikuchi at OAK
• Tyler Anderson v. SD
• Jeff Samardzija v. SD
• Daniel Ponce de Leon v. MIL
• Kyle Cody v. HOU
• Taijuan Walker v. BAL

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It’s hard to really break up a 60-game season into pieces since the whole is a relatively small sample on its own. That said, Byron Buxton seemed to be getting off to his normal slow start with a .221/.225/.456 line through 21 games (a small sample, but 35% of this year’s season) and that was only buoyed by a 3-game homer streak in games 9 through 11 (.401 OPS before that). Again, that is a relatively small number of plate appearances (71), but it was fitting Buxton’s pattern so I know I had some confirmation bias around that time like “here we go again!”.

He then suffered a left shoulder injury (inflammation) that sent him to the IL for the fourth straight season and it was the same shoulder that he hurt in 2019 so the “here we go again” vibes kicked into overdrive at that point. After missing 11 games, he returned on September 1st and he’s been on fire since then with a .340/.353/.800 line with 7 HR, 13 RBI, and 8 R in 51 PA including hits in 12 of his 13 starts (there are two defensive replacement appearances in which he has 1 PA and went 0-for-1). The power surge is the most impressive part of the run with nine of his 17 hits going for extra bases highlighted the seven dingers.

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09/22/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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2021 OUTLOOK OF LATE ROUND PITCHING GEMS

• Corbin Burnes
• Dylan Bundy
• Marco Gonzales
• Zach Davies
• Aaron Civale

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09/18/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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BIGGEST K% IMPROVERS

• Jared Walsh
• Max Stassi
• Pat Valaika
• Rowdy Tellez
• Will Smith

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09/17/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Jared Walsh rips 6th HR in 7 gms
• Brady Singer dominant again
• Keegan Akin sharp
• Randy Dobnak optioned
• Byron Buxton 5 HR in L8 gms
• Teoscar Hernández returns

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09/15/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Josh Bell on fire (.333/.414/.600, 5 HR in last 70 PA)
• Dinelson Lamet insane again
• Pablo Lopez rebounds (7 IP/1 ER, 6 K)
• Will Smith quietly dominating (178 wRC+)

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