Author Archive: Paul Sporer

77-85 (4th in Division; 19th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 40 (21st)

RP Wins: 37 (12th)

Saves: 39 (17th)

1+ Save: 5 (Raisel Iglesias 34, Mike Mayers 2, Patrick Sandoval 1, Alex Claudio 1, Austin Warren 1)

100+ Ks: 3 (Shohei Ohtani 156, Andrew Heaney 116 [total: 150], Iglesias 103)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 3 (Jared Walsh .277, David Fletcher .262, Phil Gosselin .261)

65+ Runs: 3 (Ohtani 103, Fletcher 74, Walsh 70)

65+ RBI: 2 (Ohtani 100, Walsh 98)

10+ HRs: 5 (Ohtani 46, Walsh 29, Justin Upton 17, Max Stassi 13, Jack Mayfield 10)

5+ SBs: 5 (Ohtani 26, Fletcher 15, Brandon Marsh 6, Mayfield, José Iglesias 5)

BEST BUY: Shohei Ohtani

I realize it can be hard for a 1st rounder to be a Best Buy, but that just speaks to Ohtani’s greatness. Even in leagues where you have to pick hitter or pitcher at the beginning of the week, he is remarkably valuable as a superstar in both avenues. I tend to draft him as a hitter and spot him in at pitcher as needed and if I somehow wind up with an uber-loaded offense, then I have 100 ace-level innings at the ready.

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77-85 (4th in Division; 20th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 35 (24th)

RP Wins: 42 (9th)

Saves: 42 (12th)

1+ Save: 8 (Gregory Soto 18, Michael Fulmer 14, José Cisnero 4, Bryan Garcia 2, Kyle Funkhouser, Joe Jimenez, Daniel Norris, & Alex Lange 1)

100+ Ks: 2 (Tarik Skubal 164, Casey Mize 118)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 2 (Jonathan Schoop .278, Jeimer Candelario .271)

65+ Runs: 3 (Robbie Grossman 88, Schoop 85, Candelario 75)

65+ RBI: 4 (Schoop 84, Miguel Cabrera 75, Grossman & Candelario 67)

10+ HRs: 6 (Grossman 23, Schoop & Eric Haase 22, Candelario 16, Cabrera 15, Akil Baddoo 13)

5+ SBs: 7 (Grossman 20, Baddoo 18, Niko Goodrum 14, Willi Castro 9, Daz Cameron & Derek Hill 6, Victor Reyes 5)

BEST BUY: Jonathan Schoop

Schoop had a career year in 2017 when he hit 32 HR with 105 RBI and a .293 AVG and while he will likely never reach that high watermark again, he is a firm bet for 22-25 HR with 75-80 RBI and a .255-.270 AVG. He is also dual eligible for 2022, adding 1B to his normal 2B. If you play H2H or DFS, there is always a Schoopening or two every year when he is white-hot and pitchers just can’t get him out.

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74-87 (4th in Division; 21st in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 42 (15th)

RP Wins: 32 (21st)

Saves: 33 (26th)

1+ Save: 4 (Daniel Bard 20, Carlos Estévez 11, Robert Stephenson, Lucas Gilbreath 1)

100+ Ks: 5 (Germán Márquez 176, Jon Gray 157, Austin Gomber 113, Antonio Senzatela, Kyle Freeland 105)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 5 (Brendan Rodgers .284, C.J. Cron .281, Raimel Tapia .273, Charlie Blackmon .270)

65+ Runs: 6 (Trevor Story 88, Ryan McMahon 80, Blackmon 76, Cron 70, Tapia, Garrett Hampson 69)

65+ RBI: 4 (Cron 92, McMahon 86, Blackmon 78, Story 75)

10+ HRs: 9 (Cron 28, Story 24, McMahon 23, Elias Díaz 18, Rodgers 15, Sam Hilliard 14, Blackmon 13, Hampson 11, Dom Nuñez 10)

5+ SBs: 5 (Story, Tapia 20, Hampson 17, McMahon 6, Hilliard 5)

BEST BUY: C.J. Cron

For the first time since 2017, Cron won’t be changing teams. After five teams in five years (LAA, TBR, MIN, DET, COL), he finally found a team to appreciate his plus bat (career 113 wRC+; 119 since leaving LAA). Of course Colorado would sign the 32-year-old to a multi-year deal given their love of older players, but in this case I really don’t mind it as it’s an affordable $14.5 mil for the two years. He is a solid bet for .270/25/90 with some real upside thanks to his home park.

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74-88 (4th in Division; 22nd in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 41 (18th)

RP Wins: 33 (16th)

Saves: 37 (20th)

1+ Save: 8 (Scott Barlow 16, Greg Holland 8, Josh Staumont 5, Jake Brentz, Kyle Zimmer, Wade Davis 2, Richard Lovelady, Jesse Hahn 1)

100+ Ks: 4 (Mike Minor 149, Brady Singer 131, Brad Keller 120, Kris Bubic 114)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 4 (Nicky Lopez .300, Whit Merrifield .277, Andrew Benintendi .276, Salvador Perez .273)

65+ Runs: 4 (Merrifield 97, Perez 88, Lopez 78, Carlos Santana 66)

65+ RBI: 4 (Perez 121 [led MLB], Merrifield 74, Benintendi 73, Santana 69)

10+ HRs: 7 (Perez 48 [led MLB], Santana 19, Benintendi 17, Hunter Dozier 16, Jorge Soler 13, Michael A. Taylor 12, Merrifield 10)

5+ SBs: 7 (Merrifield 40 [led AL], Lopez 22, Adalberto Mondesi 15, Taylor 14, Benintendi, Jarrod Dyson 8, Dozier 5)

BEST BUY: Whit Merrifield

Merrifield’s already fragile power fell off the cliff with a .117 ISO (lowest since 2016) and just 10 HR despite playing all 162 games, but he swiped an AL-best 40 bases and scored 97 runs to maintain fantasy value. He maintained dual eligibility at 2B and OF, finishing 5th and 11th at those positions on the Auction Calculator, respectively. There may be a little hot potato effect that drops his draft price a bit as some may be afraid to hang on one year too long with Merrifield. But he still had an 87th percentile Sprint Speed and Whiff% while remaining a premium fielder (92nd percentile Outs Above Average at 2B).

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73-89 (5th in Division; 24th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 39 (22nd)

RP Wins: 34 (15th)

Saves: 42 (11th)

1+ Save: 7 (Alex Colomé 17, Hansel Robles 10, Taylor Rogers 9, Tyler Duffey 3, Jorge Alcala, Randy Dobnak, Ralph Garza Jr. 1)

100+ Ks: 2 (José Berríos 126 [total: 204], Kenta Maeda 113)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 3 (Nelson Cruz .294 in 346 PA [total: .265 in 584 PA], Luis Arraez .294, Jorge Polanco .269)

65+ Runs: 3 (Polanco 97, Josh Donaldson 73, Miguel Sanó 68)

65+ RBI: 3 (Polanco 98, Sano 75, Donaldson 72)

10+ HRs: 8 (Polanco 33, Sano 30, Donaldson 26, Cruz, Max Kepler, Byron Buxton 19, Ryan Jeffers 14, Mitch Garver 13)

5+ SBs: 4 (Polanco 11, Kepler, Nick Gordon 10, Buxton 9)

BEST BUY: Josh Donaldson

Donaldson’s age (36 next year) and robust injury history will keep his price more than reasonable for an easy 25/.240 with his 2019 (.259/37) still a legitimate upside if he can spike another healthy season.

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71-91 (4th in Division; 24th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 41 (19th)

RP Wins: 30 (23rd)

Saves: 40 (16th)

1+ Save: 12 (Craig Kimbrel 23, Rowan Wick 5, Codi Heuer, Adam Morgan 2, Adbert Alzolay, Alec Mills, Rex Brothers, Ryan Tepera, Keegan Thompson, Michael Rucker, Manuel Rodriguez, Kyle Ryan 1)

100+ Ks: 3 (Kyle Hendricks 131, Alzolay 128, Zach Davies 114)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 2 (Rafael Ortega .291, Kris Bryant .267)

65+ Runs: 0

65+ RBI: 2 (Ian Happ 66, Javier Báez 65)

10+ HRs: 9 (Patrick Wisdom 28, Happ 25, Baez 22, Willson Contreras 21, Bryant 18, Anthony Rizzo 14, Frank Schwindel 13, Joc Pederson, Ortega 11)

5+ SBs: 7 (Baez 13, Ortega 12, Happ 9, Matt Duffy 8, Contreras, Jason Heyward, Nico Hoerner 5)

BEST BUY: Willson Contreras

Quietly still finished as the 7th-best catcher and his bankability at such a shallow position alone earns him this slot. Well, that and a lack of other candidates. The 30-year-old backstop might not even make it through the winter as a Cub as he will be a free agent after the 2022 season and could net a substantial return.

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67-95 (4th in Division; 25th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 32 (27th)

RP Wins: 35 (14th)

Saves: 33 (25th)

1+ Save: 3 (Dylan Floro, Yimi García 15, Anthony Bender 3)

100+ Ks: 3 (Sandy Alcantara 201, Trevor Rogers 157, Pablo López 115)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 2 (Miguel Rojas .265, Jesús Aguilar .261)

65+ Runs: 2 (Jazz Chisholm Jr. 70, Rojas 66)

65+ RBI: 2 (Aguilar 93, Adam Duvall 68 [total: 113, led NL])

10+ HRs: 4 (Aguilar, Duvall 22, Chisholm 18, Jesús Sánchez 14)

5+ SBs: 8 (Chisholm 23, Starling Marte 22 [total: 47, led MLB], Rojas 13, Magneuris Sierra 11, Jorge Alfaro, Jon Berti 8, Duvall, Brian Anderson 5)

BEST BUY: Pablo López

I love the trio of potential aces they have in Miami, but I think Lopez is the best bang for your buck. Alcantara is awesome and the market knows it. Rogers finished nicely and it went a bit under the radar, but the market isn’t sleeping on him. I would likely pay for either at market price, but Lopez will likely dip a bit behind those two.

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Reviewing the Bold Predictions is always a fun time of the year. Sure, it’s great when you hit some homers, but I know a lot of you enjoy looking back at laughing at the huge misses.

Let’s see how I fared! (Here is the original piece if you would like to read the thought process behind these picks)

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Goes .300-35-100

Let’s cut to the chase: this is a loss. Gurriel Jr. went .276/.319/.466 with 21 HR and 84 RBI in 541 PA, so it’s pretty straightforward… however, I’d be remiss if I didn’t point out how he turned his season around after a hideous 33-game start. He had just a .492 OPS to that point, but if you jumped off at that point then you missed 108 games of .879 OPS with 19 HR and 74 RBI, which would’ve paced to 28/111. Astute readers will notice that even that pace would be a loss, too, but as someone who was heavily bought in on Gurriel Jr., I feel alright about how he saved the last 4+ months of his season.

0-for-1

—

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65-97 (5th in Division; 25th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 42 (17th)

RP Wins: 23 (2nd)

Saves: 36 (22nd)

1+ Save: 4 (Brad Hand 21, Kyle Finnegan 11, Tanner Rainey 3, Paolo Espino 1)

100+ Ks: 4 (Max Scherzer 147, Patrick Corbin 143, Erick Fedde 128, Joe Ross 109)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 5ish (Trea Turner .322, Juan Soto 313, Josh Harrison .294, Alcides Escobar .288 – in 349 PA, Josh Bell .261)

65+ Runs: 3 (Soto 111, Bell 75, Turner 66)

65+ RBI: 2 (Soto 95, Bell 88)

10+ HRs: 5 (Soto 29, Bell 27, Kyle Schwarber 25, Turner 18, Ryan Zimmerman 14)

5+ SBs: 4 (Turner 21, Soto 9, Victor Robles 8, Harrison 5)

BEST BUY: Lane Thomas

Thomas had a fantastic third of a season after being traded for Jon Lester. He posted a 127 wRC+ with 7 HR and 4 SB in 206 PA and should be in line for a full-time role with the Nationals in 2022. He is 26 with a collection of league average or better skills at the dish as well as plus speed and plus defense in the corners annnd a great opportunity at playing time. Soto is the only locked in outfielder for the Nats heading into 2022.Thomas is a bit platoon heavy favoring his work against lefties, but if he can maintain some at or better than the .715 OPS he had versus righties with Washington, then he can avoid a short-side platoon.

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10/18/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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