Author Archive

2021 Closer Tiers

Closers are a mess this year. Sure, that was probably last year’s intro (well, I didn’t do this article, but I definitely commented about how 2020’s pool was a mess, too) and 2019’s and perhaps even 2018’s as managers have become smarter with reliever usage meaning they will use their best guys in the highest leverage situations more often as opposed to just saving them for the ninth. This presents an interesting conundrum wherein I appreciate the usage on a baseball level because it is absolutely the right way to manage a bullpen, but I hate it from a fantasy perspective because it adds more uncertainty to an already volatile part of our game.

The Tampa Bay Rays are obviously the gold standard here. Is “gold standard” the right phrase for this? Do you want to be the gold standard for pissing off fantasy managers? Let’s be honest, they don’t care and they definitely shouldn’t, they are just trying to get wins. Anyway, the Rays have set the bar here and other teams are following suit because frankly it works. I don’t subscribe to the idea that literally anyone can close, but I also realize that many more relievers are cut out for it than the consensus believed 5+ years ago when many more teams had a locked in 9th-inning guy.

Nick Anderson has a case as the very best reliever in baseball and yet he notched just six saves in 2020 with Diego Castillo getting four and 10 other relievers getting 1-2. In 11 of his 19 appearances, the Rays deployed Anderson in the 7th or 8th inning with the remaining eight being in the 9th or later (didn’t pitch until the 10th in one game and actually took the loss). No other team is as extreme as Tampa Bay, but there are a few assumed closers heading into 2021 who could get the Anderson treatment and their ranking will reflect that.

Jump to any Tier:

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Thrifting with Prospects

Last week I did a podcast where I went thrift shopping with The BAT X to find some bargain players with strong projections, but this isn’t that. Maybe I could’ve come up with a different name to avoid the potential confusion, though this intro should suffice. What we are doing here today is checking out some prospects who have seen their prices plummet.

Oftentimes prospects are super hyped before they even step foot on a major league field as we can dream on them and wishcast them to be the next huge breakout from day 1. That love is fleeting, though, and when a prospect struggles upon arrival the fantasy community has been known to turn their back on them swiftly and severely. It’s on to the next one for so many which creates a buying opportunity if you still believe and you usually should as these prospects are rarely given a real sample of work before sinking down draft boards.

All five of these one-time mega prospects are going pick 250 or later and have fewer than 500 MLB plate appearances under their belt. They might not hold quite as much hype as they did at their peak while prospects, but there is still a lot of upside in all five bats.

Gavin Lux – 2B – LAD | 2021 ADP: 251 | Last Top 100 Rank: #2 (2020)

Lux has just 151 PA over the last two seasons, posting just a 76 wRC+ with 5 HR and 3 SB in that time. His ADP has dropped nearly 100 picks from last year due in part to the lack of instant success and the fact that he doesn’t have a clear hold on playing time heading into 2021. The continued presence of Chris Taylor and re-signing of Justin Turner leave Lux on the bench hoping for a super utility sort of role, though manager Dave Roberts brightened the outlook in early March with comments about his playing time:

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 900 – No NL DH, ST News, and AL West Closers

3/4/21

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

  • TGFBI update (0:00)
  • DH/expanded playoffs considered dead (15:55)
  • Framber Valdez finger issue – season-ending surgery? (18:10)
    • AAA season delayed a month

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 899 – TGFBI Kicks Off + AL Central Closers

3/2/21

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 898 – Thrift Shopping with The BAT X

3/1/21

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THRIFTING OPTIONS

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Tommy Edman’s Failed SB Attempts

Tommy Edman is fast.

Like, really fast.

He has been 97th and 95th percentile in Sprint Speed over his two MLB seasons. In that time, he has posted a healthy 77% SB success rate with 17 SBs in 22 attempts. But that rate took a big hit in 2020 as he was just 2-for-6 in the shortened season (15-for-16 in 2019). Before you hit the comments letting me know that Sprint Speed isn’t as well correlated to SBs as home-to-first time, I will point out that Edman did slip there from 4.12 to 4.20, but that’s still firmly a plus runner per Jeff’s chart in the linked article.

I found it so weird that such a speedy guy with sharp base running acumen (84% SB% in MiLB) had such a dreadful rate so I had to investigate the four times he was caught to see what happened. I do wonder how much of his 2020 numbers is holding down his SB projections for 2021 as virtually all systems have him with a teens total despite an obvious role and gobs of speed. So let’s see what happened.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 897 – Ohtani Throwing Smoke; AL East Closers

2/25/21

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

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2021 Re-Draft Top 25/Dynasty Top 200

Prospects have become increasingly key to winning re-draft fantasy leagues. They have always been major in-season acquisitions, but now they are more prevalent than ever at the draft table. With more fantasy managers knowing the prospects who are likely to make an impact in that season, the battle for their services has become much more fervent, leading some to just stash them for a month or two rather than take the chance of being able to pluck them off the wire once they are called up and risk losing them.

These rankings are now available on The Board on the 2021 Fantasy Rankings tab, where you can also see the Top 200 Dynasty Rankings!

The average draft position (ADP) data used is for 12-team NFBC Online Championship leagues that have a standard 23-man roster and 7-man bench with no IL spots.

Randy Arozarena | TB, OF | Top 100: 4; ADP: 58

Arozarena’s playoff run (10 HR, 1.273 OPS in 86 PA) is getting all the attention, but it is worth noting that he put together a great 1.022 OPS with 7 HR and 4 SB in his 76 PA during the regular season. Throw in a healthy set of projections that have him flirting with or putting up a 20/20 type season, and the 26-year old has surged into the top six rounds of most drafts, regardless of size. The surprising jump in power production did bring a hefty 29% K% in the regular season, though he trimmed it to 22% in the playoffs, and that rate seems more likely given his minor league track record. The power/speed production gives him a strong floor even if the strikeouts are more of a problem than anticipated. The price is high, but the upside is massive and at 26 years old, he is close to being a finished product.

Ian Anderson | ATL, SP | Top 100: 13; ADP: 104

It is hard to have a better debut than what Anderson managed in both the regular season and the playoffs. He steamrolled through six starts in the regular season with a 1.95 ERA and 1.08 WHIP across 32 IP only to then drop 16.7 innings of scoreless ball in the playoffs before the Dodgers finally clipped him for a pair of runs in the third inning of his Game 7 NLCS start. I am a sucker for a prospect arm with a strong changeup and Anderson’s is the best pitch in his arsenal. Eric graded it as a 70 while the fastball and curveball are both average or better, aided by a deceptive delivery that kept batters off balance. He is a key piece for the Braves and there is no reason to believe he won’t break camp with the club. Read the rest of this entry »


The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 895 – Rosy to OAK, JTR Kinda Broke, and KC No Longer a Joke?

2/18/21

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

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Paul Sporer’s Top 100 Outfielders

Outfield is one of those positions that always feels deep just because of the star power at the top, but of course leagues generally require 3-5 starting OFs plus the many multi-positional players plucked from the OF pool to play other positions.

I’ll have an update in early March to account for any moves, news, and/or injuries. Let me know what you think in the comments: how are you building your OF plan? do you stack a few early on or play the middle tiers? who is your sleeper at the position?

Other positions:

Here’s my list.

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