As more batters push up past 60 PA, we have reached one of the first major stabilization points of the season with strikeouts. It doesn’t mean that we’re observing their true talent level after 60 PA, but rather that we may be experiencing a shift in that talent, so it is worth looking at some of the major outliers to see if they have made observable changes to fueling the improvement.

Omar Narváez, MIL | -20 pts to 11% in 65 PA

His 2020 collapse really felt like an outlier. He moved to the Brewers and while they seemed to do a great job at teaching him how to better catch, it came at the expense of his bat. Now it probably isn’t as simple as “he focused so much on defense that he let his hitting lag” and it probably has much more to do with it being a small 126 PA sample (60 wRC+, 31% K).

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Most platforms have a feature where you can click something by the player’s name to put them on a virtual watchlist. It is smart to use this feature before the season starts because once it starts you be sorting by stats and you could miss out on someone you really want about to get a new role because you sorted by PA and he just didn’t show very high.

This is starting to feel like a weekly thing…

• Previous Watchlists

None of last week’s write ups were standout performers.

SHALLOW LEAGUES (mixed leagues – 10 or fewer teams)

Jesús Aguilar | 1B, MIA

He is the full-time 1B for the Marlins and he’s walking more (15%) than he’s striking out (10%), but his power hasn’t come through yet (0 HR). If he can keep his AVG around its current .286 when he does start to hit homers, he will be an all-formats play for sure. Keep an eye on him.

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4/22/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Ke’Bryan Hayes reaggravates left wrist injury (2:21)
• Dinelson Lamet leaves his start w/forearm (5:40)
• Mike Soroka still not throwing (8:45)
• JJ Bleday might start in Triple-A (14:47)
• Domingo Germán called up to start (17:35)

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I wanted to dive in on the guys with the biggest swinging strike rate (SwStr%) gains in the early going (min. 10 IP). Where are they getting these new whiffs from, is the surge sustainable, and has it changed their fantasy outlook substantially?

Alex Cobb, LAA | +9 pts to 19%

Cobb’s fast start is tied directly to the return of his splitter aka The Thing. The 1.5 Pitch Value makes it the third best splitter in the league thus far (by results, Pitch Value doesn’t guarantee future success), behind only Kevin Gausman (4.1) and Aaron Civale (2.1). He showed some flashes of getting back on track last year, particularly with the splitter which earned a 2.6 Pitch Value.

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4/20/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Danny Duffy dominant in loss; ERA down to 0.50 (1:10)
• Keston Hiura hitting .128/.268/.234 (5:35)
• Mookie Betts hit in forearm; will be evaluated Tuesday (14:14)
• Kyle Lewis activated from IL (18:20)
• Rafael Montero notches save on Mon. (23:14)

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Pitch arsenals are always evolving and while we often discuss new pitches being featured by guys, the ones that fall by the wayside don’t get as much run. Let’s look at a handful of pitches that have either disappeared altogether or if they still throw it, it has experienced at least a 10-point drop.

FOUR SEAMERS

Dane Dunning, TEX | -21% to 0%

Dunning split his fastball usage between a four-seamer and sinker last year, but this year it has essentially been all sinkers (66%) and a couple of cutters (5%). The four-seamer generated a -2.3 Pitch Value/100 (PV/100) thrown last year while the sinker was at 3.4 so he got rid of the bad pitch and funneled into the one that was working. The results have remained solid with a 2.6 PV/100, good for 21st of the 129 pitchers with at least 10 innings so far. While we have seen many pitchers ditch their sinkers for more four-seamers, Dunning is going the other way and it is working for him.

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Most platforms have a feature where you can click something by the player’s name to put them on a virtual watchlist. It is smart to use this feature before the season starts because once it starts you be sorting by stats and you could miss out on someone you really want about to get a new role because you sorted by PA and he just didn’t show very high.

This is starting to feel like a weekly thing…

• Previous Watchlists

Jed Lowrie and Zach McKinstry were standouts from last week’s list.

SHALLOW LEAGUES (mixed leagues – 10 or fewer teams)

Adam Duvall | OF, MIA

We are jumping on the train here as his 3 HR and 8 RBI from Monday and Tuesday of this week certainly earned him some attention. Of course, that’s why he on the shallow league end because he is still widely available with just a 21% roster rate at ESPN. He’s a two-time 30 HR hitter with all the playing time he can handle. I feel like he is regularly slept on so I’m already rostering him in some deeper formats, but he’s creeping into shallow, 3-OF territory, too.

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4/15/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Carlos Rodón’s no-hitter (11:15)
• Corbin Burnes’ torrid start (19:10)
• Trevor Rogers’ torrid start (23:17)
  • Nick Neidert interest? (26:45)

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Podcast: Play in new window | Download

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Most platforms have a feature where you can click something by the player’s name to put them on a virtual watchlist. It is smart to use this feature before the season starts because once it starts you be sorting by stats and you could miss out on someone you really want about to get a new role because you sorted by PA and he just didn’t show very high.

I ran one of these before the season started and I think it is worth updating throughout the season.

• Previous Watchlists

Akil Baddoo and Julian Merryweather graduated off that first list into pickups in leagues beyond the group they were under (Deep for Baddoo, AL for Merryweather).

SHALLOW LEAGUES (mixed leagues – 10 or fewer teams)

Luis Arraez | 2B, MIN

When the Twins signed Andrelton Simmons despite still having Jorge Polanco, it was a hit to Arraez’s outlook, but then the team mentioned that he would be their super utilityman, working in both the infield and outfield. While he is a known AVG asset, it is kind of a light profile for shallower leagues with runs being the only other category he excels in besides the standout batting average.

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There’s this phenomenon in writing where you have an idea and you start putting together the piece. In the midst of writing it, you may take a random break and pop onto your Twitter feed. Whilst scanning said feed, you may run across an article posted with not only your exact premise, but damn near the same title, too. This is what Nick Pollack and Alex Fast at PitcherList have termed “Getting Sullivan’d” based on outstanding Fangraphs alumnus Jeff Sullivan.

Well, PitcherList got one back on Fangraphs:

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