James McCann’s Awful Start

James McCann was a prototypical backup catcher with a strong arm that earned him the nickname “McCannon” but had little else going on during his tenure with the Detroit Tigers (2014-18). He moved to the White Sox in 2019 and made the All-Star game on the back of a BABIP-fueled run that saw him hitting .319/.376/.514 through June with 9 HR and 4 SB. No one thought the .403 BABIP would hold and they were right as it sank to .314 from July 1st on yielding a .231/.285/.410 line.

His stock rose heading into 2020 just because he was an afterthought coming into 2019, but he still didn’t generate that much attention. This time he used a .425 BABIP in his first 17 games to post a .351/.424/.544 line with 3 HR in 66 PA. Regression hit hard in September with a .182 BABIP that dragged his line down to .200/.267/.525, but the power held with 4 more homers. All told, he had a .355 BABIP in 2019-20, 2nd to only Jorge Alfaro (.359) among catchers with at least 500 PA. In fact, McCann was 9th in all of baseball among the 226 hitters with at least 500 PA.

He started to gain some believers likely due to the power jump in 2020 (.247 ISO) so even if his AVG slid back as the BABIP regressed, his floor felt solid. When he signed a 4-year/$40-million-dollar deal to play with the loaded Mets lineup, he jumped a bit in ADP and found himself regularly going among the top 10 catchers this past spring. He is off to a horrific start with the worst wRC+ (47) among regulars on the team. In fact, only Albert Almora (-54 in 22 PA) is worse among the 14 players with at least 20 PA. What is going on and can this be salvaged?

PLATE SKILLS

McCann’s plate profile is virtually identical to what we have seen throughout his career. He had a 28% K rate and 7% BB rate in 2019-20, he is at 27%/8% so far this year, and his career marks are 26% and 6%, respectively. While the plate skills haven’t changed, that doesn’t mean they aren’t playing a role in his struggles.

The fact is that he was kind of outrunning his plate skills in the two good seasons (or season-plus since last year was literally 31 games for him) and this is just the bill coming due a bit. That said, it is hardly just the plate skills. They are simply playing a role and he might have been protected with a better floor if struck out less and walked more.

PITCHING APPROACH

I’m not going to complicate this: pitchers aren’t really attacking him that differently. Or better stated, there isn’t a pitch or two that pitchers are dialing up to expose McCann. He is getting more heaters – up 9 points to 63% – coming almost exclusively from his curveball volume (down 8 pts to 4%) but his performance by pitch type has been awful across the board. The rise in fastballs wasn’t because he had issues against them in 2019-20, but rather because they are working and pitchers don’t really have to get any deeper into their arsenal.

He had a .297/.370/.466 line against heat in 2019-20 and he is down to a remarkably bad .213/.294/.213 line so far this year. Off-speed and breaking stuff is no different. His sub-.300 OBP against it was a problem, but he still had a capable .253/.289/.482 line thanks to the power. He’s at .176/.200/.265 in 35 PA this year. The struggles feel more like McCann’s problem as opposed to something the opposition is doing to him.

BATTED BALL PROFILE

OK, let’s just get into it: his BABIP turned full pumpkin and sits at .273, down 82 points from the 2019-20 level. That is obviously a huge deal and a big reason why his production has absolutely cratered. A lot of folks were waiting for the shoe to drop here and it did in a big way. And yet, even with that, it’s hard to just say “well his BABIP regressed and he deserves this!” and just be done with it.

It’s not like the BABIP Collections Agency (the BCA… they’re well known in the baseball world) was just trying to track McCann down and get the would-be hits they were owed. If he were still hitting the ball like he did in 2019-20, the BABIP wouldn’t automatically dip to make up for lost time. He has seen his BABIP plunge because he is hitting differently and quite a bit worse than he did during the breakout period.

With Detroit, he had a 37% Hard Hit rate, 87.9 mph Exit Velocity, 6% Barrel Rate, 42% GB rate, and 10% HR/FB rate. Those figures jumped to 44% HH, 90.2 EV, 8% Barrel, 43% GB, and 20% HR/FB with the White Sox. He was riding an unsustainable BABIP, but it wasn’t necessarily blind luck as factors had changed to yield an improved performance.

He has dipped well below even his Detroit levels so far this year. His Hard-Hit rate is actually up a touch this year at 45%, but more than half his contact is on the ground (58%) so the 2% Barrel Rate stands out as a big problem. Only 6% of his flyballs have left the yard, too.

CONCLUSION

McCann’s breakout always felt suspect because of the high BABIP, but the added power gave it some legitimacy and when paired with the wasteland of the catching landscape in 2021, he felt somewhat safe to at least remain a viable C2. The disappearance of his power has made the expected drop in BABIP sting more.

He doesn’t have a strong enough track record to believe he has a good chance to come out of this with time and the already fragile plate skills paired with the sharp groundball increase don’t bode well for a return to anything resembling 2019-20. His stats thus far and the underlying skills make him an all formats cut for me. Replacements won’t be easy, but as the 53rd ranked Catcher on Razzball’s Player Rater, there has to be someone outperforming McCann.