Most platforms have a feature where you can click something by the player’s name to put them on a virtual watchlist. It is smart to use this feature before the season starts because once it starts you be sorting by stats and you could miss out on someone you really want about to get a new role because you sorted by PA and he just didn’t show very high.

• Previous Watchlists

Brandon Belt used a trip to Coors (.400 AVG, 2 HR, 7 RBI) to garner some more attention and get himself on track.

SHALLOW LEAGUES (mixed leagues – 10 or fewer teams)

Willie Calhoun| UT, TEX

Is Calhoun finally breaking out? I guess 2019 was essentially a breakout (110 wRC+, 21 HR), but he’s hitting .328/.397/.492 so far this year with 3 HR and 7 RBI in 68 PA. The 26-year-old DH is playing almost daily since coming off the IL on April 17th with an occasional sit against a lefty, but otherwise he usually just moves down the lineup against southpaws. He is leading off against righties and part of this Rangers lineup that is shocking the league a bit with the 17th most runs (135) and 16th highest wRC+ (98).

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5/6/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• John Means Business (1:03)
• Christian Yelich back to IL after 1 day (9:58)
  • Tyrone Taylor’s upside (14:10)

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Aaron Civale is having a fantastic season thus far. Through six starts, he has a 3.20 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 39.3 innings. He has just an 18% strikeout rate and 10% K-BB rate, though, which is why he has a 4.42 SIERA. He isn’t missing bats all that well, but instead keeping the ball on the ground with a 54% GB rate that is 8th among starters. He has never been a strikeout stud, but he had a 21% mark coming into this year and with his depth of arsenal, there was reason to believe he could improve even more.

What happened to his strikeouts?

ARSENAL CHANGES

He has switched over from a changeup to a split-change and he’s using it more often, up 7 points to 16% usage. He has also used his slider more often, up 5 points to 14%, while his cutter usage is down 9 points to 20%. They are distinctly different pitches, too, with a 5-mph velocity split and very disparate usage profiles (sliders aren’t even thrown to lefties). He has also switched from a sinker to a four-seamer as his primary fastball.

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5/4/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Dustin May TJ (4:51)
  • Potential Replacements: Carlos Martínez, Logan Webb, Jon Gray, Tyler Anderson, Vince Velasquez, José Ureña (11:44)
• Luis Robert out for year (28:05)
  • Potential Replacements: Lorenzo Cain, Mike Tauchman, Amed Rosario, Harrison Bader, Sam Haggerty (29:46)
  • Difficulty of OF backfill (43:43)

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Looking at five big performances from unexpected sources to determine their staying power in the coming weeks and months.

Christian Arroyo | BOS, 2B

Arroyo has been a surprise standout for the Red Sox, hitting .302/.353/.413 in 69 PA and occasionally hitting atop the lineup. He was a top 100 prospect multiple times back when he was the Giants but has become a bit of journeyman since then moving from the San Francisco to Tampa Bay to Cleveland and finally to Boston. At the risk of being simplistic, the fast start seems almost entirely attributable to his .404 BABIP. There has been virtually zero power (.111 ISO) thanks to a massive groundball lean (62%).

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Most platforms have a feature where you can click something by the player’s name to put them on a virtual watchlist. It is smart to use this feature before the season starts because once it starts you be sorting by stats and you could miss out on someone you really want about to get a new role because you sorted by PA and he just didn’t show very high.

• Previous Watchlists

Last week I said when Jesús Aguilar “starts to hit homers, he will be an all-formats play for sure” and he promptly reeled off five dingers in his next six games, taking his OPS from .739 to .921 in the process.

SHALLOW LEAGUES (mixed leagues – 10 or fewer teams)

Tyler O’Neill | OF, STL

On fire since returning from the IL, O’Neill is a power/speed profile whose lofty strikeout rate (39% this year; 35% career) often curbs his overall fantasy viability. He had just a .143/.172/.286 line in eight games before hitting the IL but has surged with a .273/.304/.682 line in seven games since his groin injury healed.

He has 3 HR and 1 SB over that time (23 PA), though his palatable 26% K rate might be the most important number behind this run. He will likely never be an AVG asset because of his swing-and-miss tendencies, but if he can get back to last year’s 27% K/10% BB then we could finally see a true breakout (something like a .245 AVG with 30 HR and 15 SB).

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4/29/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Jazz Chisholm to IL (1:32)
• Marco Gonzales to IL (6:36)
• Ryan Weathers leaves early w/joint inflammation (9:55)
• Rowdy Tellez sent down (12:26)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s surge (17:35)

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Transcript is live!

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4/27/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Saves chatter (1:30)
  • Josh Staumont
• Anthony DeSclafani dominant (8:03)
  • Aaron Sanchez & Alex Wood rolling, too
• Austin Gomber decidedly not (24:00)
• Is Michael Kopech as SP a thing? (35:04)
• Shohei Ohtani w/another elite 2-way gm (40:27)

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As more batters push up past 60 PA, we have reached one of the first major stabilization points of the season with strikeouts. It doesn’t mean that we’re observing their true talent level after 60 PA, but rather that we may be experiencing a shift in that talent, so it is worth looking at some of the major outliers to see if they have made observable changes to fueling the improvement.

Omar Narváez, MIL | -20 pts to 11% in 65 PA

His 2020 collapse really felt like an outlier. He moved to the Brewers and while they seemed to do a great job at teaching him how to better catch, it came at the expense of his bat. Now it probably isn’t as simple as “he focused so much on defense that he let his hitting lag” and it probably has much more to do with it being a small 126 PA sample (60 wRC+, 31% K).

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