Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – July 21st, 2021 by Paul Sporer July 21, 2021 New SP rankings are live and we talked about ’em! 1:29 Paul Sporer: Hello, everyone! Thanks for coming out. My new SP ranks are live so if you have any questions, it’s a great time ask – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-second-half-starting-pitche… (though it’s not a requirement to ask about them, we can still talk some hitters, strategy, or whatever baseball-related inquiry you have!) 1:32 tripps: Sean Manaea in the top 20? Is he a true stud? 1:34 Paul Sporer: I’m not gonna lie, it surprised me to put him that high, too, but as I analyzed everything, I realized he had to go up. He’s missing bats like he did back in that short 2019 sample. He doesn’t walk guys, either. And while he’s had some health issues, I think A’s are going to let him go a good bit. I can see some skips, but I doubt we see a full scale shutdown at any point 1:34 Ml: I know you mentioned Garcia may be swapped out for Javier. Where would Javier rank if he were currently in the rotation? 1:36 Paul Sporer: Pretty much the same spot, tbh. I see them very similarly 1:36 Wilson Betemit: In your 2H starter rankings, you mentioned some starters being shut down due to innings limits. Are there any you feel are more likely than others? Detroit announced plans to limit Mize/Manning/Skubal innings. Kaprielian just matched his professional high of 68 innings in a season. Taillon probably has a limit somewhere. Anyone else of note? 1:37 Paul Sporer: The young guys in particularly give me pause: Gilbert, Cease, Manoah, McClanahan, etc… The Milwaukee guys were said to get about +100 on their ’20 total and while they will massage it a bit, we’ve already started to see some pushbacks 1:38 Paul Sporer: I think Mize is cuttable in anything but AL-Only leagues given his limits right now and Skubal might not be far behind, though his K rate could still make him worth it in the 3-5 IP stints. I wish they’d give them an opener to at least give them some chances at wins for our fantasy purposes lol 1:38 Von Hayes: 1:39 Bobby: I see you left people on the IL off the list. But if deGrom or Carrasco are off the IL, where would they slot in the rankings? 1:41 Paul Sporer: deGrom is of course #1 and Carrasco probably top 60 1:41 Ml: Is Bassit sustainable into next season? 1:44 Paul Sporer: Yeah, I don’t think this is even that new. He has been a damn fine SP since ’19 now, amassing 332 IP of a 3.33 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 17% K-BB rate. I see him as a high-3.00s true talent but with some good fortune on the hit suppression, a friendly home park, and the sub-1.0 HR rates of the last 2 yrs, he can live in the low-to-mid 3.00s 1:44 Nick: I’m in between l.Webb and David price right now.. roto 12 teamer and struggling with era and whip 1:45 Paul Sporer: I’d go Webb. He’s a full on SP right now while Price is still building up and the Dodgers could kinda pull the rug out of from under him if … WHEN they go out and acquire some SPs. 1:45 Go Bears!: No Aaron Nola? He was the first pitcher we drafted way back in March…is he that hopeless now? 1:47 Paul Sporer: He returned from the IL after I made the list, my bad. He’s a top 25 arm 1:47 Peter: How close are Cease (#54) and Skubal (#52)? Who has more upside ROS? 1:47 Paul Sporer: Whattya mean how close are they? They’re 2 spots apart. Both are gonna run into IP limits so I don’t really see any major split between ’em 1:47 vr: Surprised you have Heaney so low. Touki, Ober, and Fleming are also surprising higher. What are your thoughts there. Heaney can still provide volume and Ks but the ratios are obviously unpredictable 1:48 Paul Sporer: I don’t mean this snarkily, but why? Heaney isn’t good. He’s a HR machine which consistently wrecks his ERA, his WHIP ranges from meh to bad, and all you get is Ks. I don’t see the appeal at all. 1:48 Jim: Of these guys in the 30s – Kikuchi, Musgrove, Manoah and Gray – which one would you give best chance to overachieve according to these ranking for ROS? Underachieve? 1:49 Paul Sporer: Gray over, Manoah under but only bc of IP limitations. On talent, Kikuchi 1:49 Me-Rod: you had E-Rod way down the rankings, you’re not buying his recent turnaround? 1:50 Paul Sporer: Not really. I could see him going up a tier if he stays hot over the next couple weeks, but he is who he is: a high-3.00s ERA, bad WHIP, decent Ks guy 1:50 Chris: Tarik Skubal reminds me a lot of a lefty Max Scherzer before his breakout. Am I being too optimistic? 1:51 Paul Sporer: Well ya, any time you tab someone with a #1 pitcher in baseball kind of upside, it’s remarkably optimistic. I love what Skubal has done this year and there’s definitely upside, but I rarely put someone down as a true ace projection 1:51 Peter: Can keep Freddy Peralta for a 21st. Is there a bat to target for that type of value? Assume acquired bat has no keeper value 12 team 5×5 roto 1:51 Paul Sporer: Top of the line. I’d settle for nothing less than a game-changing stud 1:51 Rachel: Still believe in Mahle? I’m not sure I want to start him regularly 1:54 Paul Sporer: The Ks keep his floor pretty high and I don’t think he’s really hurting that much that I’d bench him. Even over the L7 w/the 4.93 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, he has 54 Ks in 38.3 IP and no true meltdowns. I still really like him 1:54 Marnell: Would you start Gomber today? 1:55 Paul Sporer: No, not in Coors off the IL 1:55 Slapshot: Better FA option for getting saves for the rest of the year: Joakim Soria or Pete Fairbanks? Or wait til the trade deadline and see who moves teams before making any moves? 1:55 Paul Sporer: Fairbanks between the 2, but I’d wait to see how the dust settles on bullpens after the deadline 1:55 MF: Would you recommend selling Freddy Peralta given the impending innings limit? I know it is hard to say without league specifics but is Altuve fair value? 1:55 Paul Sporer: I did indeed recommend selling him! https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-955-fiv… 1:56 Jon Gray: Am I going to dealt at the deadline? Best bet on where I go and if I see a jump in value from the 62 spot? 1:57 Paul Sporer: It’d be truly insane if they didn’t deal him, so they probably won’t lol. No chance I can really guess where he’s going w/any measure of certainty that wouldn’t just be a blind guess. It’s a sellers market w/seemingly every contender needing SP, RP, or both, so they should have a lot of options. And yes I’d move him up instantly once out of Coors 1:57 Heathcliff Slocumb: Long term, a package of Thor + Urquidy puts you in the _______ range. 1:57 Paul Sporer: These questions are impossible, tbh. It really just depends on what your league market will bear. You should be asking for something pretty substantial for those 2 as keepers, though 1:57 Non-Pitcher Question: Brujan looks brutal so far, weak contact, no walks. No shade on his future, but do you see anything encouraging? Think he stays up? His hustle is good… 2:02 Paul Sporer: Yeah I’m a big Brujan fan and it’s been rough. 21 PA is literally meaningless in terms of talent assessment, but it could get him sent out, especially if they add some hitting at the deadline (Cruz would be a great fit). Kelenic and even Franco were pretty brutal 20-25 PA in, too. Brujan is a cut below them, but all 3 will be fine IMO 2:02 The Lawnmower Man: Kyle Gibson still pretty high. Is that because you trust him or because the Tiger lineup is just that ferocious that you give him a pass? 2:04 Paul Sporer: Even after the best team in the league rocked him twice, he still has a 2.86 ERA. He probably belongs in that Alcantara/Waino/Greinke area, especially if he’s traded since that home park is so favorable 2:04 King Cole: Has Cole figured out the lack of stickum? Obviously beast-mode lately, but that initial dip spooked me. 2:06 Paul Sporer: Spooked the whole baseball world, but it was a pretty sharp overreaction that gave way too much credit to sticky stuff. If it turned guys into the best pitcher in baseball, we’d have seen a lot more transformations. Cole is a stud and the only slight concern is the longball 2:06 Eyes on the Mize: I’ve heard that Mize will only be limited for maybe one more start, then Skubal will get limited and Mize stretched back out. Does that boost Mize up? 2:09 Paul Sporer: Yes, it will definitely push him back up and I didn’t realize the IP scale back was temporary – https://www.freep.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2021/07/03/detroit-tiger… — still a K liability, but if he can go 5+ regularly starting in the next week or two, he’ll jump into that Kyle Muller tier 2:09 Guest: Luis Patiño or Josiah Gray not top 120 rest of way, or even 3-4 weeks, for you? Eickoff is 110 and he was DFAed, plenty of other duds these guys should be rostered over. 2:10 Paul Sporer: Neither was in their rotation when the rankings were made while Eickhoff was (and he was 110 which is basically worthless, let’s be real). Patiño is interesting if he gets a legit spot, but Gray is a wildcard I’m not really betting on. The Dodgers will get arms at the deadline so I just don’t see a situation where Gray carves out a fantasy-relevant role 2:11 Chris: Do you see Ketel Marte getting any time at 2B in the second half (assuming health)? 2:13 Paul Sporer: Not impossible, just depends on Walker & Smith. If they want to play Walker, then Smith is OF and Marte can play 2B, but if they start sitting Walker when Marte returns & put Smith at 1B, then Marte is a primary OF 2:13 Taillon and FAAB: Hi Paul–My 13-team mixed league conducts FAAB bidding like a slow auction on the league message board. My 8-point bid for Jameson Taillon was just topped with 9. We started the season with 50 points, I come to the Taillon bidding with 16 left. I’m in 3rd place with a shot at improving…and my pitching is stronger than my offense. But I a) don’t see any potential impact bats coming up/available where I’d better spend my remaining FAAB (and those tend to be OF, where I’m good, rather than 1B/2B, where I could use help). b) have points I could gain or lock down with another strong arm, and c) see Taillon as the last reliable/upside arm left (won’t have enough FAAB for Sale when he returns, and the next good-ish arm available after JT is Kolby Allard–after that, steep dropoff). He’d be replacing a middle reliever, so that’s not an issue…I’m inclined to keep bidding, but also feel weird going a half season with just a few points left in FAAB. Thoughts? 2:15 Paul Sporer: (edited it for readability) It seems you’ve outlined the reasons to go for him pretty well but I’d cap around 11-12 so you have SOMETHING left to fill in injuries and such. Can you trade for pts? While there aren’t many obvious prospect bats on the horizon, someone will emerge that could fill your need and the trade deadline could also create opportunities for someone we didn’t see as a potential impact bat beforehand. That said, I’m not trying to talk you out of Taillon. He seems to fit your needs well and is worth going for in this instance. 2:21 Guest: I see you have Trevor Rogers at 12! On talent alone, I don’t disagree. But, the Marlins have said they’re going to start limiting him pretty strongly and have already begun to do so. He hasn’t gone 6 IP or gotten a W in over a month (6/15 @ STL was the last time he did either). Over his last 6 starts (24.2 IP), he has a 4.01 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP so he hasn’t exactly been stellar of late. Is ~60 IP RoS enough to keep him in the top 15 SP? 2:23 Paul Sporer: I believe they said ~175 IP so that leaves about 70 in the tank which I think can keep him top 15. 2.73 FIP in those last 5. I’m not too worried. 2:23 Mitt Face: Thanks for the list, and chat. I have very few moves left for the season, and am still carrying Pablo Lopez. Are you confident enough that Cristian Javier will rejoin the rotation, to pick him up to replace Pablo? There’s nobody on the wire that would come close to javier’s ranking (if he starts again). 2:25 Paul Sporer: I just can’t possibly envision a scenario where they keep Garcia in the rotation the rest of the way. There is a chance that Javier is bypassed and they go Greinke-McCullers-Framber-Odorizzi-Urquidy but Urq and Odo are health risks so I just feel really confident that Javier gets back in. I’d personally make the move for him and cut Lopez (as sad as that is… so bummed about his inj.) 2:25 Edwin Diaz: Should my owners be adding or trying to acquire a backup closer, just in case? 2:28 Paul Sporer: He was truly brilliant before this lull so unless it’s injury-related, I’m not particularly concerned. Stallings’ GS was about as lucky as it gets (though Diaz did load the bases so he’s not COMPLETELY absolved there). The vagaries of baseball can be such a bitch sometimes… one of the league’s best closers gets run over by the Pirates TWICE in separate series including one of the most insane HRs I’ve ever seen. It’s never a bad idea to have backup plans for SVs, but again, unless he’s hurt, I’m not sweating Diaz 2:28 Bobby: It is now the second half, how would you rank these players going forward. Suarez, Conforto, Bellinger, Rendon, Mondesi. 2:35 Paul Sporer: Man, this is a tough rank w/so much health uncertainty. Conforto, Bellinger, Suarez, Mondesi, Rendon 2:35 Will: Why is Eduardo Rodriguez so low? He has looked top 50 for a month now. 2:38 Paul Sporer: Wait, I think I answered about E-Rod already 2:38 Paul Sporer: ah yes, Ctrl-F E-Rod to find it 2:38 Paul Sporer: 2:38 K: Where would Strasburg fit on the list? Do you prefer Gonsolin or Strasburg for the remainder of the year? 2:39 Paul Sporer: I’m a long-term Stras fan, but I’m going Gonso. I know he got hit up on Monday, but I’m standing by him rest of way. Even when the Dodgers get some reinforcements at the deadline, I still think Gonso holds a role and does v well down the stretch 2:39 Rocket Roger: Hey Paul, love the Sleeper and the Bust. In a dynasty league, is there any hope long-term for Jorge Alfaro? Or is he a cut? 2:40 Paul Sporer: Thank you so much for listening! I think he’s cuttable for sure. Who are you considering scooping in his place? 2:40 Jon Gray: Dealt Trivino for Jon Gray in 5×5 Roto dynasty. Outside shot for a comeback but pretty much not competing this year. Seem fair? 2:40 Paul Sporer: Dig it! A semi-closer should always be dealt in dynasty, espec. for an SP who seems destined to finally get out of his awful home park 2:41 Darren: In a keeper league and considering trading Trevor Rogers and Adolis Garcia for an OF bat. What is a realistic return? Or is Garcia the real deal? 2:47 Paul Sporer: Again, I can’t really answer these questions w/any real value bc it entirely depends on your league, buuut I included this bc of the secondary Q re: Garcia. Even if you look at just his last 40 games (starting on June 1st) when he’s regressed, he still has a 25 HR/9 SB pace in that time. He’s not as good as his first 45 gms (58/22 pace) nor is he as bad as his last 40. He has legit pop, a good bit of speed, and thus I think he’s a reasonable 30/15 kind of guy, even if he hits somewhere around .240 AVG. If you’re moving him AND Rogers, you gotta get a massive return IMO 2:50 Chilly: Who do you like better out of Schoop, Dom Smith, Blackmon? Trying to pick a target from the possibly overperforming to the scary bad. Thanks! 2:54 Paul Sporer: I think Dom has the best chance at overperforming rest of season. Love what Schoop has done for my Tiges and they should definitely move him, but what if he gets traded into more of a part-time role? Blackmon’s K, BB skills have been fantastic, but his power is non-existent. 2:57 Edwin Diaz’s Statcast page: Just a note to go check Diaz’s Statcast page. His spin rate dropped off a cliff the day they started the actual ban and it has not come back. So it looks like he waited until they started actually checking. Just something to think about 2:58 Paul Sporer: But he still has a 33% K and 15% SwStr since the crackdown. The fluke grand slam is doing a lotttt of heavy lifting on his 7.59 ERA since the crackdown. Fair to keep tabs on the Statcast stuff, but I don’t think it’s a major issue for him 2:58 Edwin Diaz’s Statcast page: Late breaking news – Kirilloff to the IL for wrist surgery. 2:58 Kirilloff Off: Just read that Kirilloff is going to get wrist surgery, maybe done for season. Makes sense given Twins are out of it. Do you think he’s a keeper for 2022? 3:00 Paul Sporer: Son of a bitch! Really love Kirilloff, so this is a bummer. I’d need to know more specifics to determine his keeper value, but generally speaking, I’d like to acquire shares of him in keeper formats 3:00 Jay T: Is Votto underperforming his stat cast numbers because of his speed? rather, lack thereof 3:02 Paul Sporer: This can definitely happen w/older guys who are still ripping the ball, but end up turning 2Bs into 1Bs and even some 1Bs into outs (I remember this with Pujols when teams shift him deep in the hole at SS and are able to get him out at 1st on would-be 1Bs because he is SOOO slow) 3:04 Freddy Peralta: In dynasty, where do I fall in SP rankings for next season? Top 25? 3:04 Paul Sporer: Definitely top 25 for me 3:04 mplais: How long can Cole Irvin continue to dot up and outperform his peripherals 3:06 Paul Sporer: Love the super-sharp command and control, but I still see him as a 4.20-4.60 ERA type of guy. Hard to say how long he can keep outrunning the periphs, but he’s a must-start right now IMO 3:07 Branch: Do you think the fantasy community underrates Kyle Hendricks? He’s ranked 40th for you for the second half despite turning things around and having a history of strong ERAs and whips 3:12 Paul Sporer: He has definitely turned things around, but it’s still an 18% K rate during the run which is REALLY bad. I love the 2.48 ERA/1.07 WHIP over his L12 starts, but the 10 wins are a fluke and cannot continue at that rate espec. as they deal off pieces in the lineup and pen. Without a league-leading 12 Ws, he’s definitely more in the 40-45 range than the 31 rank he has thus far. So I don’t think I’m underrating him. Look at Sandy Alcantara for example. He also has strong a ERA/WHIP combo, but just 5 dubs and thus slots 52nd on the Razz Player Rater (type SP in the Pos field) https://razzball.com/playerrater/ 3:12 Matt: McClanahan has been kinda sneakily great of late (3.08 ERA/2.87 FIP, averaging 5.1 IP/start over his last 5 starts). Do you think the Rays’ decision to limit his innings early could actually mean that he could pitch more-or-less a regular SP workload for the remainder of the season? 3:17 Paul Sporer: I’m a huge McClanahan fan, but don’t forget they also have to leave some gas in the tank for October so I just don’t see how he can get a full SP workload rest of way. There’s about 13 starts left on the schedule for Rays SPs (67 gms left) so 5 per is 65 IP which would double his season total and set a new pro high (120.7 in ’19) and that’s before any playoffs which are essentially a 1.5-2x tax per IP in terms of judging workloads. I think he’s got closer to 40-45 IP left so they can save some juice for the playoffs and not hinder him for ’22 and beyond 3:17 Kirilloff Off: Thanks for the extra long chat, BTW. Very helpful stuff! 3:17 Paul Sporer: Thanks, I appreciate y’all hangin out! 3:17 Brujan: Brujan optioned… 3:20 Paul Sporer: Figured it was coming after a brutal start and Margot nearing a rehab. Brujan was worth a gamble bc of his upside, but he joins the list of prospects to come out of the gates stumbling. I’m not worried about him long-term and would even try to buy at a discount in dynasty/keeper lgs 3:20 Ton: Where would you have ranked Manoah if healthy 3:21 Paul Sporer: I did rank him bc he’s due back so quickly. It was in the opening notes and he’s ranked 36th 3:21 Brujan: This is the sign of a nice long chat: kid was striking out in the bigs when it started and down in the minors before it ended. Well done! 3:21 Paul Sporer: lol 3:21 brad: Is Buehler so low due to worries about innings? 3:24 Paul Sporer: Is 9 so low? I could see a pushback or two but I don’t have any major concerns about Buehler. I quite like him, I guess I just liked those ahead of him a bit more 3:24 Ton: Out of your rankings, who is the best trade target aka buy low among the top 10-20 guys? 3:25 Paul Sporer: I’d try to target guys who I don’t think will be held back IP-wise… Lance Lynn, Max Scherzer, Yu Darvish 3:26 Brujan: I’ve got Brujan in an al only keeper for $11. Only 3 man bench, though. Should I hold? In first right now but taking some hits. 3:26 Paul Sporer: $11 isn’t super keepable. I can’t imagine he’d cost MUCH more than that even with a guaranteed role heading into ’22 3:26 JND: 12 team dynasty league competing for the ‘chip. 5×5 roto (OBP not avg) – is Hiura cuttable at this point? what is a realistic return? 3:31 Paul Sporer: Oh yes, for sure. I was cutting him a while ago, tbh 3:31 Joe: I saw that you have Darvish ranked high for ROS any concerns about spin rate? 3:32 Paul Sporer: Not really, no. 3:33 Guest: any concerns with kelenic? or is the gap between major and minor league pitching that significant? 3:33 Paul Sporer: Not really, no. 3:34 Paul Sporer: OK I just wanted to do that gag of answering the same way twice. But no, even w/the struggles again this 2nd time around, he’s fine. MLB is tough! 3:37 SPRanks: Stripling started poorly this year then heated up nicely, but now has 12 R, 8 H and 4 walks over the last 4 innings. Any worry he’s turning back into a pumpkin? Are these last starts baked into your rankings? 3:41 Paul Sporer: He made a mechanical change in late-May that delivered big dividends up until these last 2 starts. There is a chance that he’s lost his way w/the changes, but getting worked by TB and BOS isn’t crazy to me, especially Boston. Definitely giving him another start and if he settles at NYM this weekend, I think he’ll be fine 3:42 Phil: You seem high on Gonsolin. He didn’t look sharp last outing vs. SF. Any reason for a relatively high rank? Was also going to ask about Cease being lower than I would think but sounds like there is an innings limit concern 3:49 Paul Sporer: Yeah 1 start isn’t deterring me from Gonsolin. The Giants are 5th in wOBA against righties and tied for the 2nd-highest walk rate. I think Gonso will be a full-time starter the rest of way for LAD – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-956-six… … as for Cease, yes I’m worried about his IP. I could see him and Kopech trading roles down the stretch 3:49 SPRanks: I’m a bit surprised to see Cobb in the 70s, even though his estimators say that he’s been quite unlucky so far. Are you buying ROS? 3:49 Paul Sporer: Are you thinking it’s too high or too low? 3:49 High Houck: You’ve got Houck pretty high given the uncertainty of his starting and so-so numbers during AAA rehab. Is he someone you’ll trust immediately, even against a decent offence? 3:52 Paul Sporer: Discussed him deeper on the pod – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-956-six… Unless he just flops, I really think he has a full-time SP role the rest of the way. Richards has no business in the rotation at this point and I’m not sure Perez does either, tbh 3:52 Logan Gilbert: Dipoto said on podcast when Gilbert was called up that with the late start + the 6 man rotation they wouldn’t have to shut him down at any point. Just pointing this out because I keep seeing people concerned he’ll stop pitching. 3:56 Paul Sporer: I’m not necessarily worried he’s going to be fully shutdown, but the 6-man will cut into his workload and I could still see a pushback or two even w/the 6-man. The fact that they’re sort in contention helps for sure, but there’s also no guarantee he stays pitching this well the rest of the way. All that led me to my 42 ranking. I could see someone wanting him in that 29-40 tier, but I don’t want to get too drunk on this run and just think he’s beyond reproach from here on out. Bottom line: I’m a fan, but there are some light concerns that kept me from pushing him top 35 3:57 Cheez: Who’d you want in a keeper league – Bellinger or Buehler? 3:57 Paul Sporer: Always the hitter when it’s close like that, even given Bellinger’s health issues 3:57 Dr Pelotas: Non SP question but I’m a world of SS hurt. 10-teamer. Who do I cut out of London, Gleyber and Franco. Need to weather an IL storm and having all 3 is a drain. Thinking Lindoewon’t 3:57 Paul Sporer: London = Lindor? 3:58 Paul Sporer: He’s going to be out for a good while IMO so while Torres has been brutal, I’d still hold the healthy dud over the injured one 3:58 Guest: Paul, how do you deal with a season where everything goes wrong? In a 6 player keeper I’ve already traded all my useable assets for injured stars who will come back next year. At this point my team is comically bad. It’s tough to maintain any interest when you have no chance at the playoffs. How do you keep it interesting in a down year? 3:59 Paul Sporer: You’ve done the #1 thing, which is trade useful pieces for keepable players. Best you can do from there is just respect the rest of the lg and make sure you have a full lineup and play out the string. Sometimes shit just goes completely against you and there’s nothing you can do 3:59 We Stan Jarren Duran: Thoughts on Wisdom the rest of the way assuming they deal Bryant? 4:04 Paul Sporer: He’ll likely become a true full-time player (though he’s been playing a good bit already). He is a pretty straightforward all-or-nothing power hitter. The AVG will continue to slide but the power is legit. .230 AVG/12-15 HR 4:04 Mooseknuckle Curves: Patino tomorrow. Could he be a 2H stud? 4:09 Paul Sporer: Yes, it’s certainly possible. I’ll be updating the ranks on Patreon tomorrow and he’ll be included, probably around 75-80. He threw 80 and 90 pitches in his last 2 AAA starts so he’s stretched out. There’s major upside here, a definite pickup in pretty much all leagues where he’s available 4:10 Chamaco: Gonsolin – it hasn’t been one start where he hasn’t looked sharp, it has been pretty much all of him. He is running up high pitch counts, walking a lot of guys, and his slider just isn’t there. Looks like a different pitcher than last year – wonder if he is still hurt… 4:13 Paul Sporer: I really don’t see it that way. He had the 8 BB in his first two starts and then put together a 1.80 ERA/0.95 WHIP with 22 K and 7 BB in 20 IP with 16 pitches per inning before the dud v. SF. He was tracking very well and then a great offense pushed him off the track a bit. I’m not that worried and still see real upside with him 4:14 robertobeers: Where are we at with Jeff McNeil in 12tm mixed? 4:19 Paul Sporer: (sorry my sister called me… one sec) 4:23 Paul Sporer: He’s not a must-keep in 12-teamers given his awful power. Looks he was a product of the 2019 superball w/that power surge as he’s been a complete dud since. Justin and I have this saying about some guys in 10 or 12 teamers where they belong on A roster, but maybe not YOUR roster. A team in need of AVG can find a spot for McNeil, but if AVG is a strength and you need pop, he’s a cut. 4:23 DH: If Grandal is close to returning within the next two weeks, trade away Haase or IKF? 4:29 Paul Sporer: IKF would probably draw more bc of his speed, but that’s ALL he’s doing. He’s been brutal for a while now (.246/.280/.315, 1 HR, 18 RBI, 26 R, 10 SB in his last 275 PA). I know the SBs will still rank him pretty highly among Cs, but he’s not good 4:29 What Happ-ened?: No JA Happ in the rankings. Seems intentional, but asking for a friend. 4:29 Paul Sporer: I had him 116 but ended up removing him bc I’m never starting him in any format 4:30 Vince: 12-team H2H Roto, need to make a trade for power. Can you list in order — with any comments — MOST DROPPABLE from my roster Ryu, Eduardo Rodriguez, Kikuchi, Framber Valdez, McClanahan, Manoa, Cavan Biggio. Thanks 4:30 Paul Sporer: New SP ranks hot off the press https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-second-half-starting-pitche… 4:32 Paul Sporer: I just saw Biggio was included, but I’d find an SP to cut first given your power need. He has a .211 ISO since returning w/4 HR in 108 PA (24 full season pace) 4:32 Nate: Think there’s a power breakout coming at some point for Ke’Bryan Hayes? I’m sure his wrist issues sapped a lot of it when he came back…debating making an aggressive buy low bid in a keeper league though 4:33 Paul Sporer: Oh yeah, I definitely see power upside in Hayes’ future. Not necessarily this year, but in the coming seasons for sure 4:33 lunch angle: Robbie Ray finding the strike zone at last has been a revelation. F-strike% up five points over career, Zone% up four points over career. But how much can we trust him to keep up this level of control? 4:36 Paul Sporer: I took a while to buy in bc he had a 2.4 HR/9 thru May so I figured the lowered BB rate was just bc he was filling the zone, but it’s down to 0.97 since June 1st and he’s continued to have an excellent BB rate. There’s nothing to suggest he’s in danger of turning into a pumpkin so I’m trusting him quite a bit at this point 4:37 SaltyD: Caught up a couple weeks ago on some of the pods – the one in June with Justin still confident in the universal DH was comedy gold! 4:37 Paul Sporer: I think he’s still holding Seth Beer in an NL Only juuuust in case they make the move at the trade deadline lol 4:37 Tyger: What are your thoughts on Derek Hill? Shouldn’t he start every day the rest of the season and steal 20 bases? 4:43 Paul Sporer: Shoooould get pretty close to full-time burn once Robbie Grossman is traded (or I guess IF since they could keep him, but they really should deal him IMO) and he could be a nice SB source. He has gone 6/7 in SBs so far so there’s major upside but I doubt he maintains a 17% BB rate 4:43 zurzles: Is the power coming for Ke’Bryan Hayes or is this who he is? 4:43 Paul Sporer: Not even sure you have to scroll up to see that I just answered that exact Q, lol 4:43 Jose: Is there anymore upside to Dylan Carlson this year and next or is what we see what we are going to get? 4:45 Paul Sporer: I still love Carlson and absolutely think he’s more than just a league average hitter. He might just linger around average this year, but long-term I’m quite bullish. 4:46 Paul Sporer: OK we finally got a marathon chat on the books! I appreciate y’all for hanging out so long. Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch tomorrow & Friday and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!