86-76 (3rd in Division; 13th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 57 (6th)

RP Wins: 29 (25th)

Saves: 39 (18th)

1+ Save: 5 (Lou Trivino 22, Jake Diekman 7, Andrew Chafin 5, Sergio Romo 3, Yusmeiro Petit 2)

100+ Ks: 5 (Frankie Montas 207, Sean Manaea 194, Chris Bassitt 159, Cole Irvin 125, James Kaprielian 123)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 2 (Tony Kemp .279, Matt Olson .271)

65+ Runs: 3 (Olson 101, Mark Canha 93, Matt Chapman 75)

65+ RBI: 3 (Olson 111, Chapman 72, Jed Lowrie 69)

10+ HRs: 8 (Olson 39, Chapman 27, Seth Brown 20, Canha, Sean Murphy 17, Lowrie, Ramón Laureano 14, Mitch Moreland 10)

5+ SBs: 5 (Starling Marte 25 [total: 47, led MLB], Canha, Laureano, Elvis Andrus 12, Kemp 8)

BEST BUY: Mark Canha

He is a free agent, but unless he signs before I finish these (and with a remaining team), then I won’t get to write him up.

Canha’s hip injury seemed to linger and really undercut his season as he posted just a .659 OPS with 6 HR and 5 SB in 300 PA after returning. Prior to that, he had an .826 OPS with 11 HR and 7 SB in 325 PA which was in line with the guy he had been in 2019-20 (.876 OPS in 740 PA). The sneaky speed has sustained his value and made him a very valuable player. He ranked 126th this past year even with the weak second half and yet he is being drafted at pick 276 so far. He will likely jump a bit when he signs, but that would be a round at most so there is room for the 33-year-old to regress some and still be a plus buy in the draft.

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Cedric Mullins was one of the best breakouts of 2021 with a 30 HR/30 SB season that came out of nowhere. But what comes next? There have been 11 seasons of at least 30/30 since 2011 featuring 10 players and Ryan Braun doing it back-to-back in 2011-12. We actually saw four in 2011 and then two in 2012 before a drought that José Ramírez and Mookie Betts ended in 2018.

Here are all 11:

I wanted to look at what these players did before and after their magical season to see if it might help us with our Mullins projection.

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83-79 (3rd in Division; 14th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 55 (8th)

RP Wins: 28 (27th)

Saves: 41 (14th)

1+ Save: 10 (Heath Hembree, Mychal Givens 8, Amir Garrett, Lucas Sims 7, Michael Lorenzen 4, Tejay Antone 3, Sean Doolittle, Brad Brach, Josh Osich, Michael Feliz 1)

100+ Ks: 4 (Tyler Mahle 210, Luis Castillo 192, Sonny Gray 155, Wade Miley 125)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 7 (Nick Castellanos .309, Jesse Winker .305, Tyler Stephenson .286, Tyler Naquin .270, Jonathan India .269, Joey Votto .266, Kyle Farmer .263)

65+ Runs: 5 (India 98, Castellanos 95, Winker 77, Votto 73, Eugenio Suárez 71)

65+ RBI: 6 (Castellanos 100, Votto 99, Suárez 79, Winker 71, Naquin 70, India 69)

10+ HRs: 9 (Votto 36, Castellanos 34, Suárez 31, Winker 24, India 21, Naquin 19, Farmer 16, Stephenson, Aristides Aquino 10)

5+ SBs: 2 (India 12, Naquin 5)

BEST BUY: Joey Votto

Votto spiked a huge season selling out for power and smashing 36 HR with a .938 OPS in 533 PA. He will be 38 years old next season which is what will keep his price in check and why he is their Best Buy. He is trending around pick-171 in early drafts and I suspect he will remain outside of the Top 150. Even if he doesn’t repeat 2021 – and I doubt he will – this profile feels like a relatively safe .250/30 at CI or UT.

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11/16/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Eduardo Rodriguez to DET (1:47)
• Noah Syndergaard to LAA (7:17)
• José Berríos extension with TOR (13:30)
• Seiya Suzuki announcement incoming (23:46)

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82-80 (2nd in Division; 15th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 40 (20th)

RP Wins: 42 (10th)

Saves: 36 (21st)

1+ Save: 7 (Héctor Neris 12, Ian Kennedy 10, José Alvarado 5, Ranger Suárez 4, Archie Bradley, Sam Coonrod 2, Connor Brogdon 1)

100+ Ks: 3 (Zack Wheeler 247, Aaron Nola 233, Suárez 107)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 4 (Bryce Harper .309, Jean Segura .290, J.T. Realmuto .263, Odúbel Herrera .260)

65+ Runs: 3 (Harper 101, Andrew McCutchen 78, Segura 76)

65+ RBI: 4 (Harper 84, McCutchen 80, Realmuto 73, Rhys Hoskins 71)

10+ HRs: 8 (Harper 35, McCutchen, Hoskins 27, Brad Miller 20, Realmuto 17, Segura 14, Herrera, Didi Gregorius 13)

5+ SBs: 6 (Harper, Realmuto 13, Segura 9, McCutchen, Herrera 6, Travis Jankowski 5)

BEST BUY: Aaron Nola

It was an inconsistent season for Nola as his core skills remained remarkably strong (25% K-BB, 5th in MLB), but managed just a 4.63 ERA due in large part to a 1.3 HR/9 and 8.2 H/9 in 180.7 IP. He isn’t some sneaky sleeper as even those who just look at surface stats will see a 1.13 WHIP and realize he is worth drafting, but I’ll take any sort of discount here and run with it!

Make no mistake, Bryce Harper is an excellent buy, too. I’m a long-time Harper stan even when he was foolishly being regarded as overrated. But I’d rather not use the obvious superstar in this field when possible.

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80-82 (2nd in Division; 16th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 48 (12th)

RP Wins: 32 (20th)

Saves: 39 (18th)

1+ Save: 5 (Emmanuel Clase 24, James Karinchak 11, Bryan Shaw 2, Nick Wittgren, Trevor Stephan 1)

100+ Ks: 4 (Triston McKenize 136, Shane Bieber 134, Cal Quantrill 121, Zach Plesac 100)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 3 (Amed Rosario .282, Harold Ramirez .268, José Ramírez .266)

65+ Runs: 2 (Ramírez 111, Rosario 77)

65+ RBI: 2 (Ramírez 103, Franmil Reyes 85)

10+ HRs: 6 (Ramírez 36, Reyes 30, César Hernández 18 [total: 21], Bobby Bradley 16, Rosario 11, Austin Hedges 10)

5+ SBs: 7 (Ramírez 27, Bradley Zimmer 15, Myles Straw, Rosario 13, Andrés Giménez 11, Eddie Rosario 9 [total: 11], Oscar Mercado 7)

BEST BUY: José Ramírez

I know it’s a bit boring to pick the 1st rounder of the team, but I also refuse to pretend that Ramirez isn’t the pick here. He is averaging 30 HR and 20 SB per 555 PA over the last five seasons with three of those seasons including 100+ runs and two of them with 100+ RBIs.

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11/10/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

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INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Andrew Heaney to LAD (8:00)
  • Dodgers 2022 staff
• A’s & Reds tearing down (15:19)
• Ty France to play 1B for SEA (21:51)
  • Evan White’s future

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79-83 (3rd in Division; 17th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 36 (23rd)

RP Wins: 22 (30th)

Saves: 43 (7th)

1+ Save: 5 (Mark Melancon 39, Ryan Weathers, Craig Stammen, Tim Hill, Miguel Diaz 1)

100+ Ks: 3 (Joe Musgrove 203, Yu Darvish 199, Blake Snell 170)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 4 (Fernando Tatis Jr. .282, Manny Machado .278, Eric Hosmer .269, Jake Cronenworth .266)

65+ Runs: 4 (Tatis Jr. 99, Cronenworth 94, Machado 92, Tommy Pham 74)

65+ RBI: 4 (Machado 106, Tatis Jr. 97, Cronenworth 71, Hosmer 65)

10+ HRs: 7 (Tatis Jr. 42, Machado 28, Cronenworth 21, Wil Myers 17, Pham, Trent Grisham 15, Hosmer 12)

5+ SBs: 10 (Tatis Jr. 25, Pham 14, Grisham 13, Machado 12, Jurickson Profar 10, Myers 8, Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 6, Hosmer, Jorge Mateo [total: 10], Adam Frazier 5)

BEST BUY: Trent Grisham

Grisham was having a brilliant season through June, pacing toward a 30 HR/20 SB campaign, but had a brutal summer with just 5 HR and 6 SB (in 10 tries) from July 1st on (308 PA). He suffered a pair of injuries early in the year (hamstring, heel), though I’m unsure how much they factored in considering he did his best work in the first half. The 25-year-old has solid plate skills, power, speed, and a guaranteed role. The rough second half will drop his price and I’m going to pounce. He still has the 30/20 upside and should give us at least a 20/15 season as long as he plays 140 games.

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77-85 (3rd in Division; 18th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 32 (26th)

RP Wins: 45 (5th)

Saves: 41 (13th)

1+ Save: 6 (Edwin Díaz 32, Trevor May 4, Jacob Barnes 2, Jeury Familia, Seth Lugo, Heath Hembree 1)

100+ Ks: 3 (Marcus Stroman 158, Taijuan Walker, Jacob deGrom 146)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 2 (Brandon Nimmo .292, Pete Alonso .262)

65+ Runs: 2 (Alonso 81, Francisco Lindor 73)

65+ RBI: 1 (Alonso 94)

10+ HRs: 7 (Alonso 37, Lindor 20, Jonathan Villar 18, Kevin Pillar 15, Michael Conforto 14, Dominic Smith 11, James McCann 10, Javier Báez 9 w/NYM [total: 22])

5+ SBs: 4 (Villar 14, Lindor 10, Nimmo, Báez 5 w/NYM [total: 18])

BEST BUY: Pete Alonso

Alonso is a steady premium power source. His rookie year will probably be the high-water mark of his career (.260-53-120), but he is a bankable 30 HR/90 RBI for 2022 and among a small handful of guys who you could reasonably project for 40 HR. He is almost boring at this point, but there is nothing wrong with boring, quality production.

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77-85 (4th in Division; 19th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 40 (21st)

RP Wins: 37 (12th)

Saves: 39 (17th)

1+ Save: 5 (Raisel Iglesias 34, Mike Mayers 2, Patrick Sandoval 1, Alex Claudio 1, Austin Warren 1)

100+ Ks: 3 (Shohei Ohtani 156, Andrew Heaney 116 [total: 150], Iglesias 103)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 3 (Jared Walsh .277, David Fletcher .262, Phil Gosselin .261)

65+ Runs: 3 (Ohtani 103, Fletcher 74, Walsh 70)

65+ RBI: 2 (Ohtani 100, Walsh 98)

10+ HRs: 5 (Ohtani 46, Walsh 29, Justin Upton 17, Max Stassi 13, Jack Mayfield 10)

5+ SBs: 5 (Ohtani 26, Fletcher 15, Brandon Marsh 6, Mayfield, José Iglesias 5)

BEST BUY: Shohei Ohtani

I realize it can be hard for a 1st rounder to be a Best Buy, but that just speaks to Ohtani’s greatness. Even in leagues where you have to pick hitter or pitcher at the beginning of the week, he is remarkably valuable as a superstar in both avenues. I tend to draft him as a hitter and spot him in at pitcher as needed and if I somehow wind up with an uber-loaded offense, then I have 100 ace-level innings at the ready.

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