Reviewing the Bold Predictions is always a fun time of the year. Sure, it’s great when you hit some homers, but I know a lot of you enjoy looking back at laughing at the huge misses.

Let’s see how I fared! (Here is the original piece if you would like to read the thought process behind these picks)

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Goes .300-35-100

Let’s cut to the chase: this is a loss. Gurriel Jr. went .276/.319/.466 with 21 HR and 84 RBI in 541 PA, so it’s pretty straightforward… however, I’d be remiss if I didn’t point out how he turned his season around after a hideous 33-game start. He had just a .492 OPS to that point, but if you jumped off at that point then you missed 108 games of .879 OPS with 19 HR and 74 RBI, which would’ve paced to 28/111. Astute readers will notice that even that pace would be a loss, too, but as someone who was heavily bought in on Gurriel Jr., I feel alright about how he saved the last 4+ months of his season.

0-for-1

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65-97 (5th in Division; 25th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 42 (17th)

RP Wins: 23 (2nd)

Saves: 36 (22nd)

1+ Save: 4 (Brad Hand 21, Kyle Finnegan 11, Tanner Rainey 3, Paolo Espino 1)

100+ Ks: 4 (Max Scherzer 147, Patrick Corbin 143, Erick Fedde 128, Joe Ross 109)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 5ish (Trea Turner .322, Juan Soto 313, Josh Harrison .294, Alcides Escobar .288 – in 349 PA, Josh Bell .261)

65+ Runs: 3 (Soto 111, Bell 75, Turner 66)

65+ RBI: 2 (Soto 95, Bell 88)

10+ HRs: 5 (Soto 29, Bell 27, Kyle Schwarber 25, Turner 18, Ryan Zimmerman 14)

5+ SBs: 4 (Turner 21, Soto 9, Victor Robles 8, Harrison 5)

BEST BUY: Lane Thomas

Thomas had a fantastic third of a season after being traded for Jon Lester. He posted a 127 wRC+ with 7 HR and 4 SB in 206 PA and should be in line for a full-time role with the Nationals in 2022. He is 26 with a collection of league average or better skills at the dish as well as plus speed and plus defense in the corners annnd a great opportunity at playing time. Soto is the only locked in outfielder for the Nats heading into 2022.Thomas is a bit platoon heavy favoring his work against lefties, but if he can maintain some at or better than the .715 OPS he had versus righties with Washington, then he can avoid a short-side platoon.

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10/18/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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TAKEAWAYS

• A general takeaway or two from the guys
  • Kameron Misner

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61-101 (5th in Division; 27th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 28 (29th)

RP Wins: 33 (17th)

Saves: 25 (29th)

1+ Save: 3 (Richard Rodríguez 14, Chris Stratton 8, David Bednar 3)

100+ Ks: 2 (JT Brubaker 129, Wil Crowe 111)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 2 (Adam Frazier .324 [w/PIT; he hit .305 altogether], Bryan Reynolds .302)

65+ Runs: 1 (Reynolds 93)

65+ RBI: 1 (Reynolds 90)

10+ HRs: 3 (Reynolds 24, Gregory Polanco 11, Colin Moran 10)

5+ SBs: 1 (Polanco 14)

BEST BUY: Bryan Reynolds

Nothing sneaky here, their best player is their best buy. His rough 2020 proved to be a small sample fluke and his 2021 (142 wRC+) picked up right where his 2019 breakout (130 wRC+) left off. He went 90/90 R/RBI on the Pirates for crying out loud! He has great plate skills, a high AVG floor, and above average power.

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60-102 (5th in Division; 28th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 33 (25th)

RP Wins: 27 (28th)

Saves: 31 (27th)

1+ Save: 5 (Ian Kennedy 16, Joe Barlow 11, Spencer Patton 2, Josh Sborz, Joely Rodriguez 1)

100+ Ks: 3 (Jordan Lyles 146, Dane Dunning 114, Kolby Allard 104)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 2 (Isiah Kiner-Falefa .271, Nathaniel Lowe .264)

65+ Runs: 3 (Adolis García 77, Lowe 75, Kiner-Falefa 74)

65+ RBI: 2 (García 90, Lowe 72)

10+ HRs: 6 (García 31, Joey Gallo 25, Lowe 18, DJ Peters 12, Nick Solak 11, Jonah Heim 10)

5+ SBs: 9 (Kiner-Falefa 20, García 16, Yonny Hernandez 11, Leody Taveras 10, Lowe 8, Solak, Charlie Culberson 7, Gallo 6, Brock Holt 5)

BEST BUY: Nathaniel Lowe

Lowe’s season was buoyed by an 8-for-8 effort on the bases and even with that he was just 20th at 1B. If the speed contributions are legitimate, he’s a mini-Goldschmidt coming into his own with a strong foundation. Even if it regresses, there is power and AVG upside that could yield a .280 AVG/30 HR season.

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10/12/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Jorge Soler has COVID

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52-110 (5th in Division; 29th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 30 (28th)

RP Wins: 22 (30th)

Saves: 22 (30th)

1+ Save: 8 (Joakim Soria, Tyler Clippard 6, Stefan Crichton 4, J.B. Wendelken 2, Noé Ramirez, Riley Smith, Sean Poppen, Chris Devenski 1)

100+ Ks: 4 (Zac Gallen 139, Merrill Kelly 켈리 130, Madison Bumgarner, Caleb Smith 124)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 3 (Ketel Marte .318, Pavin Smith .267, Josh Rojas .264)

65+ Runs: 2 (Rojas 69, Smith 68)

65+ RBI: 1 (Eduardo Escobar 65)

10+ HRs: 7 (Escobar 22, Marte 14, Carson Kelly 13, Smith, Rojas, Daulton Varsho 11, Christian Walker 10)

5+ SBs: 4 (Rojas 9, Nick Ahmed 7, Varsho 6, Locastro 5)

BEST BUY: Josh Rojas

Rojas looked like he was breaking out with an 81-game run from late-April to mid-August during which he hit .306/.384/.502 with 10 HR and 6 SB in 340 PA, but then finished with a .530 OPS in his last 149 PA leaving his full season line a bit underwhelming (102 wRC+). Power/speed bat with triple eligibility (2B/SS/OF) who won’t be super expensive and still carries some upside, even at age-28.

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52-110 (5th in Division; 30th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 24 (30th)

RP Wins: 28 (26th)

Saves: 26 (28th)

1+ Save: 6 (Cole Sulser, César Valdez 8, Tyler Wells 4, Dillon Tate 3, Paul Fry 2, Adam Plutko 1)

100+ Ks: 2 (John Means 134, Jorge López 112)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 1 (Cedric Mullins .291)

65+ Runs: 4 (Mullins 91, Ryan Mountcastle, Trey Mancini 77, Austin Hays 73)

65+ RBI: 3 (Mountcastle 89, Mancini, Hays 71)

10+ HRs: 8 (Mountcastle 33, Mullins 30, Hays 22, Mancini 21, Anthony Santander 18, DJ Stewart 12, Maikel Franco, Pedro Severino 11)

5+ SBs: 2 (Mullins 30, Jorge Mateo 5)

BEST BUY: Anthony Santander

Santander has been averaging about 30-100 over the last three seasons (33 HR/95 RBI per 162 gms since ’19), but he has struggled to stay on the field with just 93 and 110 games in his last two full seasons (2019 and 2021). He still hit the ball with authority this year despite the injuries that piled up (ankle, hamstring, knee). The skills are there for him, it is a matter of staying healthy and finally reaching that 500+ PA level.

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10/5/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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IN FOCUS: BREAKOUT BREAKDOWN SPs Pt. 1

• Robbie Ray (5:45)
• Carlos Rodón (19:44)
• Freddy Peralta (26:40)
  • Adbert Alzolay (33:48)
• Logan Webb (37:20)

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