Author Archive

The Case For Alex Bregman

Alex Sonty wrote the against case for Alex Bregman that you can find here.

Now I want to be clear that I’m not directly disputing everything Sonty said and making the case that Bregman is definitely going to hit another 40+ HR. I do, however, think he is more than a 25 HR hitter and someone worth targeting this year at a discounted price after his underwhelming 2020-21. One major point of contention that Sonty and others bring up is that Bregman’s 2019 was a luck-fueled home run barrage based on the otherwise mediocre underlying power metrics.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1012 – Players Who Benefit from the NL DH

2/11/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

PATREON

NL DH CANDIDATES

  • Atlanta (3:20)
  • New York (10:22)
  • Philadelphia (25:30)
  • Washington (28:35)
  • Miami (32:08)
  • St. Louis (39:01)
  • Milwaukee (46:05)

Read the rest of this entry »


Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – February 9th, 2022

Transcript is available!!

1:12

Paul Sporer: Welcome to my chat, pardon my tardiness!

1:15

Broseph: 14-team OBP league that uses TB/BB instead of HRs:
Juan Soto (cost: $5, $10, $15 then FA) has been floated for my Luis Robert ($2, $5, $10, $15, then FA) and Eloy Jimenez ($2, $5, $10, $15, then FA). I’m torn but seems like a possibly great deal for the format.

1:16

Paul Sporer: Oooh that’s a really interesting deal. I could definitely get down with going for Soto!

1:18

A Tribe Called Kipnis: After Bieber, in what order do you want to own the Cleveland starters Civale, McKenzie, Plesac, and Quantrill (in deep AL only leagues)?

1:20

Paul Sporer: I love Civale, but also have interest in McKenzie and Quantrill. Keep a close eye on Cody Morris in deep leagues, too.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1011 – SPs Who Could Make The Leap

2/8/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

PATREON

OPENING TANGENT

SP LEAPERS

Read the rest of this entry »


The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1007 – Live from PitchCon Fireside Chat w/Nick Pollack & Jake Ciely

2/7/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

PATREON

  • Join our Patreon for live video feeds of each show

FIRESIDE CHAT LIVE FROM PITCHCON

Read the rest of this entry »


5 Players I’m Removing from My Draft Board

A strategy we are hearing more and more about in the fantasy community is paring down your draft board by not just highlighting your targets, but actively removing players you won’t draft. Sure, everyone has a price you would likely pay, but if you won’t even pay the max pick price on someone, you can safely remove them from your sheet. A lot of this comes down to your team building and how different players fit into it.

Do you just take “the value” on someone who fell two rounds past ADP even though it doesn’t fit your team, or do you stick with the plan? And I put value in quotes as it can be a bit of a fugazi because if you aren’t putting together a cohesive squad, what good is this perceived value? In recent years, I have read and listened to fantasy managers discuss this process, so I have started doing it myself. Here are some early round guys that just don’t fit what I am trying to do in 2022:

Salvador Perez | C, KC, 35 ADP

Last year was awesome but I just can’t pay this price. I don’t even think I’d pay his max pick of 55 at this point. He will remain a power force behind the dish, but even as a high-volume catcher, there is no shot he is logging another 665 PA. The projections are very robust, ranging from 34 to 40 HR, but that seems really aggressive. Johnny Bench and Mike Piazza are the only catchers with multiple 40+ HR seasons and I don’t see Perez joining them.

(Edit: 1st version said 30+ HR seasons… pardon the typo. There are several Cs w/2+ 30-HR seasons.)

Read the rest of this entry »


The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1009 – 8 Players Who Could Make “The Leap” in 2022

2/8/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

PATREON

LEAPERS

Read the rest of this entry »


2022 Sporer Sleepers Vol. 2

What are sleepers? Do they even really exist anymore in the information age? The term is definitely bastardized to the point where you might come across a “sleeper list” that is littered with picks inside the top 150. It could just be semantics of defining “sleepers”, but guys taken that high just don’t qualify.

For me, sleepers don’t start until player 300 in 15-team leagues (~200 for 10-teamers, ~240 for 12-teamers). There isn’t a perfect cutoff, but it is fair to tab anyone going after the 20th round as a “sleeper”. We saw the likes of Tyler O’Neill (303 ADP last year), Logan Webb (322), Cedric Mullins (348), and Emmanuel Clase (399) among the major sleeper hits last year.

I’m using the NFBC ADP and putting a start date of 1/1/22 for this first version of Sleepers.

Previous Versions:

Pavin Smith | Arizona Diamondbacks, 1B-OF | 369 ADP

I understand why one might just pass over Smith in their analysis for fantasy outfielders (or first basemen). Nothing about his 96 wRC+, 11 HR debut jumps off the page as must-buy. I’m betting on the contact and plate skills profiles. His 19% K rate was a good bit better than average (23%), but I don’t even think we have seen the best he can do there. He had just a 7% swinging strike rate, 17th-best in the league and well below the 11% league average.

Read the rest of this entry »


Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – February 2nd, 2022

2-2-22… at 2pm ET! Too perfect! Transcript is below, thanks for coming out!!

Read the rest of this entry »


The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1008 – Potential Fades via The BATX

2/1/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

PATREON

BAT X FADES

Read the rest of this entry »