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Boxscore Bits: April 13th, 2022

Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

A few thoughts on the games from Tuesday, April 12th:

Note: no chat from me today, but my regular season ones will start next Wednesday at 2pm CT!

FOR STARTERS

Tuesday Starters
# Name Team IP H R ER HR BB SO TBF ERA WHIP W vFA (pi) vSI (pi) SwStr%
1 Tylor Megill NYM 5.1 3 0 0 0 0 5 18 0.00 0.56 1 97 17%
2 Drew Smyly CHC 5 3 0 0 0 0 1 18 0.00 0.60 1 91.4 10%
3 Andrew Heaney LAD 4.1 3 1 0 0 0 5 18 0.00 0.69 0 91.6 24%
4 Nestor Cortes NYY 4.1 3 0 0 0 0 5 16 0.00 0.69 0 91.2 8%
5 Chris Archer MIN 4 2 0 0 0 0 3 14 0.00 0.50 0 93.8 8%
6 Patrick Sandoval LAA 4 3 1 0 0 3 6 18 0.00 1.50 0 93.9 93.7 17%
7 Luis Garcia HOU 4 2 0 0 0 2 1 16 0.00 1.00 0 94.6 6%
8 Jose Quintana PIT 5.1 5 1 1 1 2 3 20 1.69 1.31 0 91.5 92.4 13%
9 Madison Bumgarner ARI 5 5 1 1 1 2 2 23 1.80 1.40 0 90.9 7%
10 Jesús Luzardo MIA 5 2 1 1 0 1 12 18 1.80 0.60 0 97.9 97.9 20%
11 Zack Wheeler PHI 4.2 2 1 1 1 1 3 19 1.93 0.64 0 95.3 95 6%
12 Chad Kuhl COL 4.1 2 1 1 0 4 5 19 2.08 1.38 0 94.2 94.2 18%
13 Vince Velasquez CHW 4 2 1 1 1 3 2 17 2.25 1.25 0 93.6 92.5 8%
14 Tyler Mahle CIN 4 4 4 1 0 2 4 18 2.25 1.50 0 94.1 7%
15 Spenser Watkins BAL 3 4 4 1 0 2 1 16 3.00 2.00 0 93 2%
16 Matt Brash SEA 5.1 4 2 2 1 1 6 21 3.38 0.94 0 96.4 13%
17 Alex Cobb SFG 5 4 2 2 0 2 10 21 3.60 1.20 1 94.4 17%
18 Bryce Elder ATL 5.2 6 3 3 2 0 4 22 4.76 1.06 1 90.9 11%
19 Tyler Alexander DET 5.1 5 3 3 0 0 4 20 5.06 0.94 0 89.5 90 11%
20 Shane Bieber CLE 5.1 2 3 3 0 2 5 19 5.06 0.75 0 91.8 9%
21 Yusei Kikuchi TOR 3.1 5 3 2 1 2 2 16 5.40 2.10 0 95.4 7%
22 Rich Hill BOS 4.1 5 3 3 0 1 4 19 6.23 1.38 0 88.7 7%
23 Garrett Whitlock-RP BOS 4 0 0 0 0 1 2 13 0.00 0.25 1 95.6 10%
24 Eric Lauer MIL 4.1 3 4 3 1 2 5 19 6.23 1.15 0 94.4 7%
25 Martin Perez TEX 4 7 3 3 0 1 2 20 6.75 2.00 0 93.2 92.2 6%
26 Dakota Hudson STL 4 5 3 3 2 0 4 17 6.75 1.25 0 92.8 92.1 11%
27 Daniel Lynch KCR 5 9 6 6 3 1 7 25 10.80 2.00 0 94.1 92.7 15%
28 Tommy Romero TBR 1.2 2 3 3 1 5 1 11 16.20 4.20 0 90.9 5%
29 Patrick Corbin WSN 2.2 9 6 6 0 3 3 20 20.25 4.50 0 91.5 91.8 12%
30 Adam Oller OAK 1.1 5 5 5 2 3 3 12 33.75 6.00 0 94.5 13%
31 Yu Darvish SDP 1.2 8 9 9 1 2 2 15 48.60 6.00 0 94 92.6 12%

 

  • Just 4 SP wins and 1 extended RP win of note: Megill, Smyly, Cobb, Elder, and Whitlock.
  • Megill was brilliant again with even more velo (up .7 to 96.9) and near identical results, adding a third of an inning and losing a strikeout off his Opening Day appearance. He is a must-roster in all formats if he is somehow still available.
  • Smyly was pretty pedestrian at PIT, but if you streamed him, you were rewarded outside of just the 1 K. Quintana was pretty solid against his old team, as well. Both veteran lefties will have bout of streamer usefulness as long as they remain healthy. Smyly gets a trip to COL this weekend so no need to pick him up in daily leagues, but gets PIT against next week so consider him in FAAB this weekend while Q gets WAS on the weekend and rematches Smyly & the Cubs next week so he could be worth the pickup now in deep daily moves leagues.
  • Heaney was a popular sleeper, going around the 20th round in the Main Event, as many believed the Dodgers could be the team to maximize him. So far, so good. He led the day with a 24% SwStr rate and was excellent in the shortened outing. He gets CIN at home on the weekend and a trip to SD next week. He is rosterable in 12s or larger while at least worth a Watchlist inclusion in 10-team formats.
  • Nasty Nestor! Cortes didn’t get a ton of hype after an excellent 93 IP last year (2.90 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 21% K-BB), but the soft-tossing lefty got off to a strong start and his velo was up to a career-best 91.2 mph. There is some discrepancy on his SwStr because we are showing 8%, but I’m seeing 9 swinging strikes in 72 pitches, good for a 13% mark. With starts at BAL and v. CLE in his next two, I’m going for Cortes is just about any format right now.
  • Archer survived against the Dodgers, but I wouldn’t use this an impetus to scoop him everywhere. I’ve been a fan of his forever so I’m always keeping tabs on him in hopes of him recapturing his previous success. With a trip to KC coming up next week, I’d pick up Archer in deeper formats, but he is pretty far down the list of likely available guys for 10s and 12s.
  • The Sandoval-Luzardo game did NOT disappoint! I will say that the early game shadowing that had the pitchers in bright sun and then the shadow starting about 10-12 ft in front of them wreaked havoc on batters and maximized what these two were able to do. I’m not discounting their starts because of it, just pointing out that it likely garnered an extra K or two. Both are all formats gems, so check your waiver wire and make sure they are rostered. I still favor Sandoval over Luzardo, but they aren’t too far apart.
  • Seemed like L.Garcia was in cruise control a bit, pitching down the competition with a solid 4 IP. His velo was up 1.3 to 94.6 mph and I’m not worried about the modest numbers surrounding the scoreless appearance.
  • No was starting MadBum against HOU but he held his own. He has a 2-start setup next week at WAS and v. NYM. It’s very risky because of how reliant he is on the many batted balls he allows finding gloves. There aren’t many formats where I’d be considering him even with WAS on the slate.
  • I used to be a Kuhl fan when he was with PIT, hoping he could channel some of his sharp raw stuff into success, but it never really came together (4.44 ERA/1.42 WHIP) and he struggled to stay healthy as well. He survived 4 BB as his 18% SwStr was 3rd on the day, but of course he’s a Rockie so it will be very difficult to feel comfortable streaming him, even in a 2-step like next week (v. PHI, at DET). He is at least back on my Watchlist, though.
  • Speaking of guys I can’t quit no matter how many times I’m burned, Velasquez did enough to remain Watchlisted for me. He had 3 BB to just 2 Ks, but another discrepancy on SwStr (I’m efforting the reasoning behind these discrepancies, btw) where we have 8% to ESPN’s 11%. It’s a 2-pitch difference, but that’s the difference between average and below.
  • Mahle’s home woes weren’t in full effect here and he actually got a bit unlucky (though 3 of 4 R were unearned). I’m still not super confident using him at home against average or better offense, making him a tough start v. STL next week.
  • Brash had some of the most GIF-worthy pitches of the day, but that might have obscured the fact that he was blasted when they did make contact with a 71% HardHit rate (40% lg. avg). There is plenty of excitement and he is a must-roster in all 12s or deeper while being a bit more borderline in 10s depending on who you’re cutting and who else is available. He is behind Megill, Sandoval, Luzardo, and Cobb just from Tuesday’s slate of guys with a high probability of being available in 10s or smaller.
  • Speaking of Cobb, his velo was up nearly two ticks at 94.4 (+1.7), which he’d shown hints of in spring. He was really good last year and health has really been the only thing that slows him down. With some newfound strikeout stuff, he has all formats viability while healthy.
  • Elder was a 5th round pick in 2020 so last year was his pro debut and he enjoyed a strong 3-level campaign (A+/AA/AAA) and got an early call to the majors. He pitched well with a lead and the Braves trusted him to start the 6th which was encouraging even though he did start getting hit that 3rd time through w/HRs to Soto & Bell. This is why teams so often curb those outings at 5, but challenging Elder when they had the lead to do it (11-1) was good to see.
  • Bieber’s velo was up a little (+0.3) and he was clean through 5, but it all fell apart in the 6th. While he is coming off a major injury last year, there is still reason to believe this is just him tuning up on the job as opposed to indication of poor health. Either way, there is nothing actionable as I can’t imagine sitting him anywhere.
  • Hill was Hill, but I added Whitlock to our board because he is very interested. Whitlock followed Hill with 4 no-hit innings to secure the win. He has all-formats relevance because it seems that he will either be in this follower role which is ripe for wins potential or just outright starting when he is stretched enough to go 5+. They just paid him, they love him, and so do I!
  • Definitely wanted better out of streamer-types like Lauer and Hudson in good matchups. They remain streamers so if there is a better option, don’t hesitate to move on.
  • Kikuchi is in that same tier, though you weren’t necessarily starting him in Yankee Stadium. He is on the chopping block if the studs from Tuesday are available.
  • Brutal outing from Darvish. Just gotta eat this one, not much you can do.
  • Tough debuts from Oller and Romero as they both got in trouble early and often. Keep tabs on them in case they settle and shine some deep league viability, but they needn’t be rostered anywhere.

STOLEN BASES

NOTABLE CALLUPS

  • Nick Lodolo, P | CIN – He has allowed 3 through 3 innings of his debut on 5 H and 3 BB, but he does have 4 Ks… check that, he allowed a homer to Jose Ramirez literally as I was posting this so now it’s 5 ER through 3.7 IP. There is a lot of upside with Lodolo and a poor first outing will keep prices down in leagues where he is available. I’d consider him in 12s or deeper right now.

WTWT

Here is What To Watch Today for Wednesday, April 13th:

Getting this out a little later on a day when there are several day games so some of these starts have already begun


The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1039 – Early Intriguing Pitchers

4/12/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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PATREON

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

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Boxscore Bits: April 12th, 2022

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

A few thoughts on the games from Monday, April 11th.

FOR STARTERS

Monday Starters
Name Team IP H R ER HR BB SO TBF ERA WHIP W vFA (pi) vSI (pi) SwStr%
Taijuan Walker NYM 2 0 0 0 0 0 4 6 0.00 0.00 0 94.1 27%
Dylan Bundy MIN 5 1 0 0 0 1 2 18 0.00 0.40 1 90.5 91.1 9%
Paul Blackburn OAK 5 3 0 0 0 1 7 19 0.00 0.80 1 92.6 92.8 17%
Bruce Zimmermann BAL 4 3 0 0 0 2 4 17 0.00 1.25 0 91.1 6%
Alek Manoah TOR 6 1 0 0 0 4 7 23 0.00 0.83 1 94.5 94 14%
Michael Lorenzen LAA 6 2 1 1 1 0 7 20 1.50 0.33 1 96 94.9 15%
Matt Manning DET 6 1 1 1 1 0 2 19 1.50 0.17 0 94.3 94.4 6%
Josh Rogers WSN 5.1 2 1 1 0 2 3 20 1.69 0.75 1 90.4 89.9 7%
Nick Martinez SDP 5 5 1 1 0 1 6 21 1.80 1.20 0 92.4 15%
Michael Wacha BOS 4.1 2 1 1 0 3 4 18 2.08 1.15 0 93.6 14%
Taylor Hearn TEX 4 8 1 1 0 1 6 21 2.25 2.25 0 95.6 95.4 16%
Jameson Taillon NYY 5 5 2 2 1 0 6 20 3.60 1.00 0 93.7 94.1 17%
Alex Wood SFG 4.1 5 2 2 1 1 6 20 4.15 1.38 0 92.7 93.2 9%
Adrian Houser MIL 3.2 4 2 2 0 3 3 18 4.91 1.91 0 94.7 94 12%
Aaron Civale CLE 3.1 4 4 2 0 3 3 19 5.40 2.10 0 90.5 91.2 10%
Austin Gomber COL 4.2 4 3 3 0 2 4 20 5.79 1.29 0 90.9 12%
Chris Flexen 플렉센 SEA 4.1 5 3 3 0 3 3 20 6.23 1.85 0 92.7 9%
Elieser Hernandez MIA 4.2 5 4 4 2 3 6 21 7.71 1.71 0 91.6 8%
Carlos Hernández KCR 4.1 6 4 4 1 2 1 20 8.31 1.85 0 95.6 13%
Ranger Suárez PHI 2.2 5 3 3 0 1 1 16 10.13 2.25 0 93.6 92.5 8%
Luis Patiño TBR 0.2 1 1 1 0 0 0 3 13.50 1.50 0 95.6 8%
Huascar Ynoa ATL 3 7 5 5 1 2 4 18 15.00 3.00 0 96.5 13%

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Boxscore Bits: April 11th, 2022

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

A few thoughts on the games from Sunday, April 10th.

FOR STARTERS

Sunday Starters
Name Team IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA WHIP W vFA (pi) vSI (pi) SwStr%
Corey Kluber TBR 4.2 3 0 0 0 4 5 0.00 1.50 0 90.5 89.8 14%
Zach Eflin PHI 4 2 0 0 0 2 3 0.00 1.00 0 93.2 92.9 10%
Nabil Crismatt SDP 3 1 0 0 0 3 4 0.00 1.33 0 89.9 88.9 15%
Daulton Jefferies OAK 5 2 0 0 0 2 2 0.00 0.80 1 92.5 92.1 6%
Carlos Carrasco NYM 5.2 2 1 1 1 0 5 1.59 0.35 0 93.4 92.7 14%
Marcus Stroman CHC 5 2 1 1 1 3 3 1.80 1.00 0 93.9 92.9 6%
José Urquidy HOU 5 4 1 1 1 0 2 1.80 0.80 1 94.7 6%
Michael Kopech CHW 4 2 1 1 0 2 3 2.25 1.00 0 96.0 7%
Antonio Senzatela COL 3.1 9 4 1 0 1 0 2.70 3.00 0 94.1 3%
Erick Fedde WSN 5 5 2 2 1 2 5 3.60 1.40 0 92.9 14%
Cal Quantrill CLE 5 4 2 2 0 1 2 3.60 1.00 1 93.1 9%
Trevor Rogers MIA 5 6 3 2 0 1 3 3.60 1.40 0 94.8 7%
Jose Suarez LAA 4.1 2 2 2 0 4 2 4.15 1.38 0 92.8 92.4 11%
Anthony DeSclafani SFG 3.2 8 2 2 0 1 5 4.91 2.45 0 92.8 92.7 11%
Hunter Greene CIN 5 4 3 3 2 2 7 5.40 1.20 1 99.9 14%
Freddy Peralta MIL 4 3 3 3 1 4 6 6.75 1.75 0 93.6 13%
Bryse Wilson PIT 4 5 3 3 1 1 2 6.75 1.50 0 92.3 91.7 5%
Bailey Ober MIN 5 4 4 4 1 2 4 7.20 1.20 1 92.2 14%
Jordan Montgomery NYY 3.1 4 3 3 0 1 4 8.10 1.50 0 92.5 92.1 12%
Tanner Houck BOS 3.1 6 3 3 0 3 3 8.10 2.70 0 95.4 94.1 10%
Marco Gonzales SEA 2 6 6 2 3 2 1 9.00 4.00 0 89.1 5%
Tarik Skubal DET 4 7 5 4 0 1 3 9.00 2.00 0 94.2 95.3 10%
Julio Urías LAD 2 6 6 3 1 2 0 13.50 4.00 0 92.3 7%
Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 TOR 3.1 5 6 6 1 2 4 16.20 2.10 0 90.3 90.4 7%
Ian Anderson ATL 2.2 3 5 5 0 5 1 16.88 3.00 0 93.4 11%
Spencer Howard TEX 3 6 6 6 4 0 5 18.00 2.00 0 95.7 10%
Steven Matz STL 3 9 7 7 1 1 5 21.00 3.33 0 94.7 12%
Tyler Wells BAL 1.2 3 4 4 1 2 2 21.60 3.00 0 95.1 11%
Caleb Smith ARI 1 2 5 4 2 3 2 36.00 5.00 0 91.1 10%
Kris Bubic KCR 0.2 3 5 5 0 2 0 67.50 7.50 0 91.3 0%

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1037 – Opening Day Musings

4/8/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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PATREON

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

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Boxscore Bits – April 8th, 2022

A few thoughts on the games from Opening Day, April 7th.

Added after this went live: I’m going to play with some different formats over the next few days until I land on exactly what I want. I greatly appreciate the feedback already in the comments and would love more especially once you see the different formats that I try out!

MIL 4, CHC 5

  • Corbin Burnes wasn’t terribly sharp (5 IP-4 H-3 ER-1-HR-3 BB-4 K with the cutter just not looking like the 2021 iteration. It has just a 53% strike rate and 6% swinging strike rate, down from 72% and 17% last year.
  • Kyle Hendricks meanwhile was excellent (5.3 IP-5 H-1 ER-0 HR-3 BB-7 K) and his 17 swinging strikes (21%) was higher than anything he did in 2021 and highest of the day by 5 (Ohtani).
  • David Robertson (1 IP-1 H-0 ER-1 K) looked sharp while notching a save as the knuckle curve was in vintage form.
  • Rowan Wick (0.7 IP-2 H-1 ER)
  • Of course, Nico Hoerner hit the 1st homer of the 2022 season, his first since September 21st, 2019 (324 PA).
  • Ian Happ got off to a fast start, going 3-4 with 2 2B and 2 RBI.
  • Seiya Suzuki got on base three times in his MLB debut including a base hit (1-2, 2 BB, R, K).
  • Willy Adames, Andrew McCutchen, and Rowdy Tellez had 2 hits apiece.

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Paul Sporer’s 2022 Bold Predictions

Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

It’s Bold Prediction time. Here are mine!

Akil Baddoo goes for 30 HR and 30 SB

My love for the 23-year-old Rule 5 pick is well known, and I really think he could be this year’s Cedric Mullins in terms of a breakout 30-30 player, though he certainly didn’t come as cheaply as Mullins did a year ago. Baddoo started out hot last year (1.070 OPS after 2 weeks) but with a 44% K and 3% BB rate in April, it felt like a mirage. His improvements were evident over the remainder of the season with a 24% K and 11% BB rate from May 1st on. Upping his competence against lefties will be required (.523 OPS last year) for this to come through, though the AL Central features just three projected lefty starters so he might see a smaller starter/reliever split for his lefty plate appearances (78% v. SPs last year). Lefty SP count in the ALC matters because so many games come against the other four teams in your division.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1036 – Fireside Favorites

4/6/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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PATREON

  • Join our Patreon for live video feeds of each show

FIRESIDE CHAT

Fireside Favorites
TYPE DESCRIPTION PAUL NICK
ACE Top 20 SP Max Fried Lucas Giolito
BREAKOUT 21-50ish range Trevor Rogers Alek Manoah
BREAKOUT 51-75ish range José Urquidy Alex Cobb & Alex Wood
SLEEPER 76-100ish range Tylor Megill Jesús Luzardo
LOTTERY TICKET Outside Top 100 Reid Detmers Patrick Corbin
DEEEEP SLEEPER Off the Charts Kyle Wright Nick Martínez
PROSPECT In the Minors Max Meyer Grayson Rodriguez

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Paul Sporer’s Fantasy Baseball Chat – April 6th, 2022

Transcript is available!

1:28

Paul Sporer: Happy Opening Day Eve, y’all!!!

1:30

Jason: First, thank you so much for doing this. Really appreciate you! Secondly, who do you think has a better shot at everyday 1B at bats in KC this year, Pratto or Vinnie?

1:31

Paul Sporer: I really like Vinnie P, but I’d probably lean toward Pratto especially bc he’s on the 40

1:31

Georgia: You’re a Tigers fan, you concerned about Fulmer’s spring velocity?  Should I move on to another save spec quickly before he kills my ratios for a week or two?

1:33

Paul Sporer: Not particularly worried, no. They aren’t limiting him or showing any concern about his health due to it so I think it’s just spring ramp up

1:33

PNW: The Mariners Will Make The Playoffs… 1-10

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1035 – Spring Standouts: Hitters

4/5/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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PATREON

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

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