Paul Sporer’s Fantasy Baseball Chat – April 6th, 2022

Paul Sporer: Happy Opening Day Eve, y’all!!!

Jason: First, thank you so much for doing this. Really appreciate you! Secondly, who do you think has a better shot at everyday 1B at bats in KC this year, Pratto or Vinnie?

Paul Sporer: I really like Vinnie P, but I’d probably lean toward Pratto especially bc he’s on the 40

Georgia: You’re a Tigers fan, you concerned about Fulmer’s spring velocity?  Should I move on to another save spec quickly before he kills my ratios for a week or two?

Paul Sporer: Not particularly worried, no. They aren’t limiting him or showing any concern about his health due to it so I think it’s just spring ramp up

PNW: The Mariners Will Make The Playoffs… 1-10

Paul Sporer: 7

pat burrell’s ghost: dear paul! this is my staff in a 12 team redraft 6×6 (+obp + holds) sp: bieber / ray / ohtani / gallen / severino / carrasco IL: sale / clevinger rp: kimbrel / jansen / graveman / lamet / s dominguez / j hicks IL: pomeranz / karinchak. once clevinger’s on the IL, i’m trying to pick between lodolo and gonsolin for the spot. i also have no idea if clevinger is even worth holding onto this year, feelings about him as a person aside. anyway: please, god, help: gonsolin or lodolo? (24 man rosters)

Paul Sporer: While I am excited about Lodolo making the team, I still prefer Gonsolin to him. I think Gonsolin gets back on track this year

pat burrell’s ghost: also happy opening day eve to you as well and thank you for your service

Paul Sporer:

Guest: The excitement is nauseating

Paul Sporer: Agreed. The butterflies of excitement get to be so much that I just start vomiting w/excitement

Forest: Is Stras worth a stash on 12 tm? Do you think he’s going to start the season on the IL?

Paul Sporer: He should start on the IL and I’d only stash him if I have 3+ IL spots

Jacob: Is the bullpen chart coming back and if so when can we expect to see it?

Paul Sporer: Yes, the Bullpen Report will be back this year. I don’t know 100%, but I’d think next week will see it get going. I will ask Jason for sure

Mike Clevinger: At what point in the season can I throw 6-7 innings per game?

Paul Sporer: Maaaaaaaybe in the summer?

Matt Chapman: Will my move to Toronto be as great as Donaldson’s and Semien’s?

Paul Sporer: Not quite as great but I’m very excited about him moving to Toronto

Adam: Thoughts on Aaron Ashby and Mackenzie Gore? Does it seem mostly likely that they both end up in a swing role splitting time as spot starter and multi inning reliever?

Paul Sporer: I definitely see Ashby starting in a relief role and being the first one once they need an SP, though he will likely be a 3-4 IP kinda guy to start. Gore should go to AAA w/the Manaea trade so he can stay on rotation, but if he maintains his spring gains, he will be up relatively soon

PNW: i think Dozier will surprise in KC

Paul Sporer: I can see that. If healthy, he should definitely improve upon his ugly ’21.

Tim: Dumb (but genuine!) question: With nothing but your fantasy managerial experience to rely on, how much worse would you be at running the Rockies than current management? COULD it be worse?

Paul Sporer: If it was JUUUST me, it’d probably be pretty bad despite the 1000s of ours I’ve put into Out of the Park Baseball & fantasy baseball, but I do think I could assemble a front office team that would make better decisions than a lot of the ones the recent COL regimes have

Kyle: Can you ask Justin to do a weekly chat on FG?

Paul Sporer: Stay tuned! Might not be the only added fantasy chat coming this season, but Justin will be joining the rotation!

Little Ricky: Jeremy Peña or Bryson Stott rest of season (6 cat obp)?

Paul Sporer: They are close, but w/the OBP added, I’m going to lean Stott.

Ken: Where are you at on Ha-Seong and Keston heading into this season? You grabbing either in 12-teamers?

Paul Sporer: I am taking Kim in 12-teamers but putting Hiura on the watchlist more so than adding him. I like that he hit well in spring, but it still came w/a 33% K rate so he didn’t really improve on his biggest issue

James: When is your best guess Grayson Rodriguez gets the mlb call? is he worth a stash in 12-15 team mixed roto?

Paul Sporer: I’m reluctant to stash him in a redraft as I don’t see him up until summer. He has amazing talent and could be a summer gem, but unless I had a specific minors spot or deep reserve roster, I don’t think it’s worth holding for 2+ mos.

Thunder Gun Express: If you were 2B/SS deprived, and had Manoah, Cole, Gausman, Urias, and Gray on your team, would any of those be enough for Semien?

Paul Sporer: The non-Cole/Urias ones are perfectly fair for Semien

John Spivey: What % of FAAB is Josh Lowe going to command tonight?

Paul Sporer: Depends on league size. 15-teamers, I’d think 15-20%. 10s/12s I’d be closer to 5-10% depending on need. I really like Lowe, but he has some big swing-and-miss that could keep his AVG very low

Trev: NFBC league, you putting Hunter Greene in for his Sunday start or a reliever like P. Johnson, who may or may not see a save opp.

Paul Sporer: Gimme the RP. I’ll sit on the sidelines for Greene against the Champs

Henry: Need to IL deGrom. Both are being hyped up, but would you rather scoop Luzardo or M. Keller in his place?

Paul Sporer: I’d go Luzardo right now. Really like the steps he has taken w/MIA to get back on track. Last year was just a lost season so I’m not throwing him out completely just based off one bad year

If you’re not first you’re last: Brash, Gonsolin or Detmers?

Paul Sporer: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-2022-sp-ranking-with-commen… reverse order of how you listed ’em, though in fairness that was before Brash broke camp so he & Gonso are closer to a coinflip. I’m a huge Detmers fan!

Chip: Ottoneu, thinking of trading a similarly priced Polanco for Clevinger. I have A TON of MI. Acceptable return?

Paul Sporer: It’s acceptable, but I’d really aim for someone currently healthy unless you’re just shooting for the big upside of what healthy Clev can deliver

Trevor: What are your expectations for Kirilloff in ’22?

Paul Sporer: So much hinges on how healthy that wrist is, but I like the projections of high-teens HRs with a good AVG

First Time Caller: 12 team head-to-head.  All other things equal, who would be your priority waiver pickup: J. Lowe, D. Castillo, N. Lodolo, R. Detmers

Paul Sporer: Detmers, Lowe, Castillo, Lodolo

Paul Sporer: That’s Diego Castillo from Pittsburgh, right? If it’s the Seattle RP, he’d go below Lodolo

Pan: What are your expectations on how long til Oneil Cruz makes the majors? Don’t worry not holding you to it. Just curious as I think your guess is better than mine.

Paul Sporer: I’d say about a month in AAA

Slapshot: Who do you feel more confident in replicating their spring stats come the regular season – Casey Mize or Jesus Luzardo?

Paul Sporer: In terms of the changes, I’d say Luzardo. I could see Mize adding Ks this year, but I wouldn’t necessarily bet on it. I do still rank him above Luzardo, though, in terms of overall output

Guest: Lynn

Paul Sporer: Lance

Cody: I have to drop one of late round fliers. Mitch Keller or Luis Patino?

Paul Sporer: I’m gonna actually say Patiño here bc I think he could be managed into 3-4 IP starts for a bit while I think Keller will be allowed to go 5-6 more consistently off rip

Rick: Drew Steckenrider, Rowan Wick, Domingo Acevedo – who has most saves, who has best year overall?

Paul Sporer: I think Steck will be the best by a good margin, espec. w/Giles already nicked up. I think they prefer Sewald in the fireman role so Steck will the majority of saves while others mix in. I took Acevedo in my Main Event w/my last pick, but I’ve already dropped him (for Kyle Wright) as I think Trivino gets some decent run to start the season after a strong spring

Michael: Tyler Mahle

Can I repeat as a top 30ish pitcher or is the park and team context too much to overcome?

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t quite tab him for Top 30 bc it puts SUCH a burden on road work given how bad he’s been throughout his career in Cincinnati (5.09 ERA, 1.40 WHIP in 221 IP).

Chip: What do you expect out of Steven Kwan this year? Will he hit the ground running?

Paul Sporer: I’m really intrigued by him. It’ll be mostly AVG, but there is some budding pop that could ensure he isn’t just “empty average”. There should be plenty of playing time in Cleveland, too

ROBOCOP: If CJ Abrams makes the opening day roster, where do you think the Pads bat him in the order and do you think he will play enough OF to earn eligibility?

Paul Sporer: I’d say bottom third. It’d probably take some time to get OF elig. as he will likely play SS/2B until Tatis returns and even then I think his OF time will be sporadic

Random: Is Sulser still a hold and see? Or drop and find any number of other/better options?

Paul Sporer: With Floro hurt right now, I’d wait & see a little bit and see what Miami does first

Colton Anderson: As an injury replacement for Sale, would you go Ober or Ryan if you had to choose?

Paul Sporer: I’m a Joe Ryan guy, though I freely acknowledge that the two aren’t terribly different

Jimbo: Perdomo or CJ Abrams break camp, and do they play?

Paul Sporer: I think Perdomo does and Abrams is still up in the air. I definitely don’t think either would be called up to sit on the bench, so if they break, they’ll play

Kyle: Diego Castillo or Will Smith? I’m not going to specify on either, I’m just going to have you rank every combination….

Paul Sporer: lololol Smith Castillo Castillo Smith

Paul Sporer: you figure it out now 🙂

Dan: Ian Happ had a really good 2nd half.  You think it continues and he gets over 30 homers?

Paul Sporer: I’m a long-time Happ fan and can def see 30 HRs if that elbow injury is cleared up and he stays healthy this year

Voto Weasley: Kim, Lux, or Peña

Paul Sporer: Kim/Peña/Lux … the talent of the 3 is pretty close so I just prefer the PT outlooks for the 1st two over Lux right now.

Guest: Is Freddy Peralta and m brantly for Lindor and j walsh in a 10 team keeper league fair?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I don’t have any issues w/that

Derp: How do you feel about KB at Coors this year?

Paul Sporer: VERY excited! I actually liked him even before the Colorado signing and realized I was higher than the market but then obviously that changed when he signed w/Colorado as everyone joined in. .300-30 incoming!

babblio ordonez: who do you like better as a bench/MI in an OBP league: nick senzel or brendan rodgers?

Paul Sporer: I prefer Rodgers even w/Senzel having speed upside. Both have battled health issues but I’ll favor Coors over the SBs from Senzel

Dan: Hey Paul — what are your thoughts on Josh Lowe in Tampa?  What does a final line look this year?  What about in future years?  Thanks!

Paul Sporer: There is some nice power-speed upside here, though it comes w/some major swing-and-miss so we have to temper expectations. Tab him for something like .230/15/15 w/upside to be a good bit better if he keeps the whiffs in check (24-26% would be OK, but he’s a risk for 30% range)

Scott: Start Kikuchi, Montgomery, or Tallion? pick 2

Paul Sporer: Gimme the 2 Yankees

Martin: I’m way more excited about Steven Kwan than everyone else I know and that’s usually a bad thing.

Paul Sporer: You’re not alone. Alex Chamberlain is a mega fan as are a few others in the fantasy community. I’m definitely excited to see how he does this year!

John: Who do you think will be the closers for Colorado and Baltimore this season?

Paul Sporer: Does it matter?

Paul Sporer: Just kidding, I know saves matter anywhere. I’d lean Bard in Colorado w/Colome & Estevez getting opps as well and Dillon Tate would be my pickup for Baltimore, though I’d probably rather try to Coors guys which is rare as I usually avoid Rockies closers like the plague

Don Von Handburger: Speaking of Colorado, is this the year your boy G-Hampson finally becomes a power/speed fantasy asset?

Paul Sporer: I’m actually off him these days. Just too much poor play (.680 career OPS despite half his gms in Colorado) and I’m just not sure the SBs are worth it. Still no guaranteed PT, either

Saul Pporer: What pick should Acuña come off the board in a points league? Assuming he’s back first week of May, he’s missing 20% of the fantasy regular season

Paul Sporer: He’s more of a 3rd rounder for me, but he never goes there

PNW: DO YOU BELIEVE Nick Gonzalez PADRES has pulled a Flexen/Kelly revamp

Paul Sporer: Nick Martinez you mean and yes I am intrigued by him for sure. He had an excellent spring, I’m excited by the new SD pitching coach, and I think he can be a fantasy relevant arm for sure

Greg from Toronto: does evan white (sea) have a future? is it in baseball?

Paul Sporer: yeah he’s going to get more than just 306 PA to show what he can do. he’s working back from a hernia surgery, but they will definitely give him more chances

Ari: How concerned are you about Barnes velocity drop?

Paul Sporer: I’m not much of a Barnes fan to start, but I will say that isn’t hasn’t necessarily changed my outlook as I was already ignoring him in drafts. I don’t get too hung up on spring velo changes unless they are corresponding injury concerns from the player/team. If they start missing their turns to pitch or going shorter than they were supposed to, then it becomes a worry

Guest: Did you have more fun filming Sandlot or Freaks and Geeks?

Paul Sporer: Definitely Sandlot, but both were great! Superbad was a lot of fun, too.

VinnieDaGooch: I need your final prediction on the Tigers’ win total this year

Paul Sporer: 83 not trying my hopes up toooo much this year so a winning season would be great IMO

Rank the Cs: Bart Zunino Diaz.  Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Big Diaz fan and given the price difference, I’d likely take Bart instead of Zunino despite him ranking a little lower for me https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-2022-catcher-rankings-with-…

Kev: any change in outlook for Austin Meadows after the trade to DET?

Paul Sporer: No change for me. He could get more PT vL and add some counting numbers, but likely at a cost to his AVG.

SMan: speculating on Merrill Kelly 켈리 after a lights out spring?

Paul Sporer: He was on my consideration list for a late SP pick, but I didn’t land on him anywhere.

Peter: Concern level re: julio urias velocity?

Paul Sporer: Low

Akil badoo: Jesus Sanchez or max Kepler or both??

Paul Sporer: I quite like both so if that’s an option, yes to both. And I literally have them back to back in my OF rankings so if it’s only one, it’s a coinflip

Tork Vader: I have Andres Gimenez as my starting SS in a 12 team until Tatis is back. Am I in trouble?

Paul Sporer: You’re no doubt weaker than the rest of the league, but there is some upside w/Giménez. Anyone on the wire?

Don Von Handburger: I am in the bargain bin when it comes to closers.  Should I drop Dillon Tate and add Daniel Bard?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I would

Steve: Is there any reason to avoid loading up on players from the same team? I have 3 marlins pitchers but that division makes me nervous

Paul Sporer: I’ve never been particularly concerned about it. If those are the best guys available to me, I’ll take em

Uncle Hulka: I think Robertson is gonna end up closing for the Cubs. Am I insane?

Paul Sporer: Not insane, no. He will need to regain his form a bit at age-37, but he looked sharp in spring & that job is open

Anthony: Who will be closing games in Miami by mid-season?

Paul Sporer: Dylan Floro

Saul P’porer: How worried should we be on Melancon’s ability to hold down a closing gig after his terrible spring?

Paul Sporer: Ian Kennedy wasn’t any better. Was Melancon bad in all 4 outings or was it 1 bad outing dragging down the whole line?

SMan: Buying into David Peralta swing change as a depth OF3-4 type in deeper Roto leagues? Debating Cano or Stott for last spot as well.

Paul Sporer: I’ve always been a Freight Train fan and we just discussed him on Tuesday’s pod based on his great spring numbers. I didn’t even realize it was fueled by some changes until someone mentioned it to Justin and I on Twitter so now I’m even more excited. I’m kinda bummed that info slipped my radar bc I’d have definitely made him a reserve OF priority. He was in my list of considerations, but I consistently wound up w/others

Akil badoo: Sir Anthony Dominguez in a league with saves and holds as cats is his upside worth dropping pierce Johnson for?

Paul Sporer: Excited by Dominguez’s return, but w/Holds counting, I don’t see too much difference b/w these two

vr: 12 team, keep 20, OBP & QS league: Laureano and Skubal for Gurriel and Mize — who says no?

Paul Sporer: Probably the person getting Laureano if they don’t want to wait a month on him. I know you didn’t put Jr. so I imagine it’s Yuli, but I do wanna say that if you just forgot the Jr. and it’s Lourdes, I greatly prefer that side. If it is indeed Yuli, I find it pretty even on talent, just have the hangup about Laureano’s missed time

Henry: Thank you for these chats! Are you more in on Jesus Luzardo or Mitch Keller given the gains both seem to have made this spring?

Paul Sporer: I know I answered a question regarding these two earlier but I posted this one just to highlight that they are essentially the main pitchers on this chat. There were several questions about both, often related to one another. I’m buying Luzardo a bit more based on his previous success and Miami’s SP development, but I’m excited by the potential breakout of both and definitely think they are both fantasy viable across most formats (10s would probably require a pretty deep reserve, but keep them watchlisted at the very least).

Shaggy: H. Greene or R. Detmers?

Paul Sporer: Detmers, I’m a really big fan of his!

Votto TikTok: Will you do the same dance tiktok as votto to celebrate the meadows acquisition?

Paul Sporer: My knees hurt just watching it, but it was super impressive by both him and the girl who was also doin the dance on the right, lol.

Paul Sporer: For the unaware:

 

Jordan Cicchelli

@jordancicchelli

 

guys wtf is joey votto doing

6 Apr 2022

BD: Love anybody who has opportunity now in Oakland? Tony Kemp? Kevin Smith? Neuse? Seth Brown? Anyone else who’s going to play a lot with the selloff?

Paul Sporer: You hit on all the ones I like most! Big Seth Breezy fan. Definitely has AVG downside, but I think he can hit 30 HR for sure. Smith can be a solid pwr/spd contributor in deeper formats. Neuse returns to OAK and should finally get a shot. Saw him rake at Fall League back in ’17 and have followed him since. He could become fantasy viable if he makes the most of this opportunity. And Kemp has been confounding for me. I *WANT* to be super excited based on those excellent plate skills last yr (more BB than K; 8 HR/SB in 397 PA). But he had like 3 barrels all year and I wonder if he might just be challenged a ton since he’s not a pwr threat and then that BB rate comes down. I think he’s a cheap double-double (10+ HR/SB) as a full-timer and could be a true fantasy gem if he runs wild & swipes 20

Jacob: Who is someone that looking back on it you wish you had more shares of?

Paul Sporer: Kemp if you can believe it! Like I said, I was confounded by him and ended up being too passive to get him in drafts bc I was like one foot in, one foot out.

Paul Sporer: Wish I’d have trusted my read on the Josh Lowe situation more, too. Scooped him in multiple Draft & Hold leagues, but tapped the brakes once my waiver lg drafts started up bc TB hadn’t cleared a spot for him. I was saying in winter that they’d find a way to trade KK’s contract to clear a spot for Lowe. The player was wrong, but they were clearly motivated to trade an OF so they didn’t just let Lowe AND Brujan both sit in AAA. I try not to take guys set for the IL or minors in those lgs bc in the NFBC we just get 7 reserves and those spots are precious so I laid off Lowe. He is available in a couple lgs, though, so I can remedy that via FAAB, albeit at a much higher cost than the mid-20s draft pick he’d have cost

Jacob: What’s your approach to early season trading? How do you appropriately react while trying to leverage people who over/underreact?

Paul Sporer: I usually wait 3-5 wks before really seeking trades unless situation requires otherwise. I usually identify some slow starts I’m 0% worried about and try to buy them at a discount while also being open to paying “full” price if the trade makes sense bc I do believe in them. I wouldn’t necessarily give a discount off a month of poor work if I believed in someone so I don’t expect my leaguemates to do so which is why I will still buy at market price if I can’t get the discount

Mike: Torkelson & Witt will be in FAAB this week. What % of FAAB would you allocate if trying to obtain one of them?

Paul Sporer: BTW, not going to ignore this in case the chatter isn’t here to add league settings. Assuming something like 12 tms and $0 bids are allowed, I’d be upwards of 50-60%. A full season of these guys could be huge and I’m willing to take the shot. If $0 bids aren’t allowed, I’d be a bit more cautious and be open to just not getting them. I can’t put myself in a position where I can’t replace injured guys in a 12-teamer. So if you spend 60% and can’t do $0 bids, you could be broke by July. Just can’t take 0s in a 12-teamer. Hard to anywhere, but it’ll kill ya in 10s and 12s.

Paul Sporer: how many tms and can you make $0 bids

Paul Sporer: please include league settings and $0 bid allowance when asking FAAB Qs, y’all!

Aaron: Art Warren or Robert Suarez? 12 team 5×5 h2h categories

Paul Sporer: Suarez for me

Lopez: Can Jorge Lopez actually get 25 saves on Baltimore? Was good as an RP last year

Paul Sporer: He could with the job all year by himself, but I doubt that happens. He and Tate aren’t terribly different, though

Guest: Saw Eno had Nestor Cortes ranked #160. Nothing to see here and trust the numbers from ’21?

Paul Sporer: 160?!

Paul Sporer: I couldn’t find it, sorry, that took forever lol

Paul Sporer: but damn that’s too low

Charles: How do you handle prospect research/tracking during the season? Are you looking at stats or just trusting the relevant experts to highlight the guys worthy of attention?

Paul Sporer: I check the box scores daily and watch 2 gms and Quick Pitch most nights. In the morning I watch the start(s) of relevant SP(s) I might’ve missed or the condensed gm. I listen to a good handful of pods and I end up doing a ton of general research just due to the pieces I write, as well, so that keeps me dialed in. It’s also my job so that REALLLYYY helps as I realize not everyone has that kind of time. When time is a major factor, I’d prioritize scanning the boxes daily over anything else. It allows you to see how guys are performing day-to-day and check in on lineup placement/bullpen usage. It will be the most bang for your buck by far. Obviously I advocate for podcasts as well. We will have 5 weekly episodes during the season this year!

Branwdo +/-: The Athletic – ENO SP Ranks: https://theathletic.com/3136219/2022/03/31/sarris-starting-pitching-ra…

Paul Sporer: Ty! I wonder why he’s SOOOO low. I get he doesn’t throw hard, but he had a strong 21% K-BB rate last year. I trust the 3.78 SIERA waaay more than the 2.90 ERA. I actually see him as more of a 4.20 ERA pitcher, but even that is better than 160!!

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get goin’! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!