Boxscore Bits: April 12th, 2022

A few thoughts on the games from Monday, April 11th.

FOR STARTERS

• There were only 5 SP wins: Manoah, Lorenzen, Bundy, J.Rogers, and Blackburn
• Patiño left his start after just 13 pitches with a strained oblique. He is likely headed to the IL and is a cut in 10s and 12s for sure and I wouldn’t be against it in 15s if you don’t have IL spots or only have a 1-2.
• Walker left his start after just 30 pitches with shoulder irritation. Manager Buck Showalter downplayed the injury, stay tuned for more news on Tuesday. Walker has been placed on the IL and is a cut across all formats if you need the IL spot.
• Bundy held SEA scoreless for 5 IP, but the 9% SwStr and 6% K-BB cut into the excitement a bit. I’m not picking him up anywhere based on this.
• Blackburn was given a four-run lead before he threw a single pitch and he came out firing. His velo was up 2 mph at 92.6 and he had the Rays flummoxed with 12 Swinging Strikes and 7 Ks. His curve & changeup were especially sharp and this start is enough to put Blackburn on my Watchlist. If he pitches well at TOR this weekend, he will be a FAAB target.
• Zimmermann’s scoreless appearance was more like Bundy’s than Blackburn’s. His velo was down and he wasn’t exactly dominating MIL, nothing to see here.
• Despite the walks, Manoah was sharp. He refused to give in and gave up just 1 H so the BB never came back to hurt him. His 7 Ks were tied for the most on the day with…
• Lorenzen, who was excellent in his return to starting. He went 6 strong, throwing five pitches consistently and completely dominating MIA. I’m a Lorenzen fan so I’m definitely rostering him where available and already have him in a few of my leagues (4-of-12 at NFBC). He has at HOU next Monday, so maybe roster & stash if you have a spot.
• A J.D. Martinez homer was the only blemish for Manning and he was in control throughout his 6 IP despite a lack of dominance (2 Ks, 6 Swinging Strikes). I’m intrigued enough for 12s and 15s, but still just Watchlisting in 10s.
• Martinez was great in his return from Japan, leaning on his cutter and changeup as his 39% Called Strike+Whiff rate (CSW%) was tops among those who made a full start (only Walker & Patiño were higher). Martinez has 12-tm viability and is at least worth watching in 10-teamers.
• Wacha wasn’t bad in his 4.3 IP, but he will likely throw fewer than 5 IP consistently which definitely curbs his upside for fantasy purposes.
• Hearn outpitched his 8 H allowed, notching 6 Ks thanks in large part to his 16% SwStr (t2nd among non-inj. SPs). I’m certainly intrigued by this outing and will be dialed into his against LAA this weekend and if he does well, I think he becomes 12- and 15-tm viable.
• Taillon went toe-to-toe with Manoah, with a 2-run HR to George Springer being the only blemish on his line. He is definitely a pickup for start at BAL this weekend in all formats and is a team streamer for me (meaning you just reserve him for the starts you don’t want instead of cutting him).
• Ynoa’s one bad inning tanked the outing (all 5 R in the 3rd inn.). I’m not cutting him yet, but he will be on the chopping block if there are another couple duds.
• Suárez’s 33-pitch 1st inning doomed the start, though I’m surprised he wasn’t allowed to finish the 3rd when lefty Luis Guillorme was due up when he got taken out. I’m holding onto him for a few more starts.
• Civale wasn’t great at KC, particularly with his velo down 1 mph and uncharacteristic poor control. I’m holding for now in deeper formats, but I’m open to cutting him for some of these guys in this list in 10s and 12s.
• C.Hernandez continued to struggle missing bats as a starter and has just a 16% K rate in 71 starter IP. I’m open to cutting him across the board, especially for multiple guys just in this list.
• E.Hernandez’s persistent home run issues (career 2.0 HR/9) came through in his season debut with a pair of longballs doing most of the damage. He should’ve been out of that inning with a clear strike to Max Stassi that was immediately followed by a Brandon Marsh 3-R HR, but he’s still a soft-tosser with a chronic HR issue (2.0 career HR/9). He isn’t a must-hold in any format short of NL-Only.

Elieser Hernandez and the #Marlins should have been out of the inning one batter before the Marsh home run. Pitch 6 to Stassi was called Ball 4 on a 3-2 count with two outs. pic.twitter.com/u3doWO8Yar

— Jordan McPherson (@J_McPherson1126) April 12, 2022

STANDOUT SLUGGERS

Jesús Sánchez clubbed a pair of homers for the Marlins as their lone runs in a 6-2 loss. The 24-year-old OF has game-changing power, but his ability to make consistent contact will determine his overall fantasy viability. Early on, his 24% K and 10% SwStr rates are encouraging in 17 PA. Strikeout rate is one of the first stats to stabilize which simply means that the sample in question has some merit, not that the player is now expected to maintain that skill going forward. That happens around 15-20 games with K rate (60 PA), so stay tuned to see if Sánchez can develop beyond the 31% career mark he has through 297 MLB PA. He has 12- and 15-team viability immediately but is likely only a reserve in 10-team formats that use 5 OF in the starting lineup.

Seth Brown and Chad Pinder each popped their 2nd HRs of the season for Oakland. Brown is someone I liked this draft season, particularly in Draft Champions formats (50-rd Draft & Hold), as I think there is 30 HR upside with a clear path to playing time. The question is the batting average and he’s an even bigger risk than Sánchez with a .227 mark in 410 career PA. His early 17% SwStr rate tells that 20% K rate is headed upward soon. If he can’t push the AVG north of .230, he is limited to deeper formats even with the premium power. Pinder has spent his career as a short-side platoon guy (.790 vL, .689 vR), yielding a league average output of 99 wRC+ in 1375 PA. He is more of a mid-20s HR guy if he is given 500+ PA for the first time in his career (370 PA in ’19 is his current career-high). His AVG should be better than Brown’s, but you’re trading some pop. Pinder is only a deep league consideration at this point.

STOLEN BASES

There were no combo meals yesterday (1+ HR and SB) so here’s a look at all the SB and CS from Monday with their season count:

SB

• Myles Straw 2
• Jorge Mateo 2
• Byron Buxton 1
• Shohei Ohtani 1
• Whit Merrifield 1
• Adalberto Mondesi 1
• Bobby Witt Jr. 1
• Julio Rodriguez 1
• Santiago Espinal 1
• Keston Hiura 1
• James McCann 1

CS

• Adolis García 1
• Yadiel Hernandez 1
• Tyler Wade 1

NOTABLE CALLUPS

None today (Tommy Romero is getting his official call, but I already discussed that yesterday)

WTWT

Here is What To Watch Today for Tuesday, April 12th:

• Garrett Whitlock is following Rich Hill. If he consistently follows Hill or someone else, he could be in a great position for wins with 3-4 inning outings.
• Matt Brash debuts for the Mariners after breaking camp and I can’t wait to see what he does v. a tough White Sox team.
• Can Tyler Mahle find some home success? (career 5.09 ERA)
• Vince Velasquez starts for CWS. I’ve been a fan for years (haven’t rostered him in years, but always follow him just in case), can Ethan Katz get another level out of him?
• Tommy Romero makes his MLB debut for the Rays.
• What does Tylor Megill do for an encore after that brilliant season debut?
• Zack Wheeler’s season debut was pushed back a bit, but he goes tonight v. the Mets.
• I’m not quitting Daniel Lynch after an ugly 68 IP last year, the Royals lefty still holds some appeal for me.
• A couple of intriguing mid-tier lefties battle in the Bronx: Yusei Kikuchi v. Nestor Cortes
• Another lefty-lefty battle has even more intrigue with sleeper standouts Patrick Sandoval & Jesús Luzardo dueling in LA.
• Can Andrew Heaney or Chris Archer recapture some of their early career magic in new homes?
• Why wasn’t Luis Garcia given more draft hype? I’ll be dialed in on the Astros righty tonight.
• Will Alex Cobb’s spring velo spike hold? He was touching 96-97 mph, though he only really needs 92-93 consistently to be successful.