Paul Sporer’s 2022 Bold Predictions

Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

It’s Bold Prediction time. Here are mine!

Akil Baddoo goes for 30 HR and 30 SB

My love for the 23-year-old Rule 5 pick is well known, and I really think he could be this year’s Cedric Mullins in terms of a breakout 30-30 player, though he certainly didn’t come as cheaply as Mullins did a year ago. Baddoo started out hot last year (1.070 OPS after 2 weeks) but with a 44% K and 3% BB rate in April, it felt like a mirage. His improvements were evident over the remainder of the season with a 24% K and 11% BB rate from May 1st on. Upping his competence against lefties will be required (.523 OPS last year) for this to come through, though the AL Central features just three projected lefty starters so he might see a smaller starter/reliever split for his lefty plate appearances (78% v. SPs last year). Lefty SP count in the ALC matters because so many games come against the other four teams in your division.

The Tigers were tied for 7th in stolen bases last year with 88 and they seem perfectly comfortable letting Baddoo run. He got 22 attempts last year (18 SBs, 82% success). He ran 35 times per 600 PA in the minors at an 80% success rate so he wouldn’t have to be too far out of his established production to nab 30 SBs in 35 attempts and of course he could feasibly just get an extra 2-4 attempts and then his established 80-82% success would yield our goal. I think he’s a star in the making and I wasn’t shy about rostering him in my leagues:

Harrison Bader also goes for 30 HR and 30 SB

Why wasn’t Bader tabbed as a breakout sleeper in more spots? He almost feels like an obvious candidate, averaging 17 HR and 15 SB per 162 games since 2018 and coming off his best season yet. He cut his strikeout rate to a career-best 21% last year by being more aggressive. It did result in fewer walks (7% after 11% in 2019-20), but the trade off was worth it since it yielded more production. He had a sharp summer after returning from a fractured rib on July 1st, hitting .279/.330/.473 with 12 HR and 6 SB in his final 318 PA. And that included a hideous August when his BABIP sank to .214 and dragged his OPS to just .421 in 109 PA. He rallied with 7 HR in September and if he can build on that power profile with his already established premium speed (not just sprint speed, but also home-to-1st, which is more important for SB projection), we could see a special season.

Luke Voit hits 40 HR

Voit is the only guy I have more than Baddoo on my rosters and a lot of those shares were acquired when he was still in New York and his playing time was a bit dicey given some of their positional clutter:

While the price did rise once he was traded to San Diego, he still wasn’t cost prohibitive moving from an average draft position (ADP) of 262 at the NFBC to 211. That depressed price made me comfortable in stocking up even with health concerns surrounding the 31-year-old slugger – he has just one season north of 234 PA. His career high is 510 back in 2019. In 1133 PA as a Yankee, he hit 30 HR per 510 PA so 40 wouldn’t be too crazy, especially if he can stay healthy and accumulate 600+ PA.

LUKE VOIT!

Nathaniel Lowe is a top 8 1B

Lowe finished 18th at the position last year with 18 HR, 8 SB, .264 AVG, 75 R, and 72 RBI in 642 PA. I can’t guarantee another 8-for-8 performance on the bases, though he is a solid-average runner and the Rangers were 4th in SBs with 106 last year. The real growth will come in the power production numbers and improved lineup which will elevate the HR, R, and RBI. He is a slight lift adjustment from being a 25 HR hitter. Of the 62 batters to hit 25+ HR last year, none did so with a groundball rate at or above the 55% rate that Lowe posted last year. In fact, just two (Josh Bell and Juan Soto) eclipsed 50%. The pop is there with solid Barrel Rates (career 10%), Hard Hit rates (45%) and Max Exit Velos (114.8 mph) across his career and the heavy groundball lean is relatively new as he had just a 42% in 2019-20 so it wouldn’t be nuts to a sharp improvement this year.

Last year, the 8th ranked 1B was Joey Votto who had a .266 AVG, 36 HR, 99 RBI, 73 R, and 1 SB. That’s just for reference as there are many combinations to reach a particular ranking when you are dealing with five categories. I see something like a .275 AVG, 28 HR, 78 R, 97 RBI, and 6 SB season. If Semien, Seager, and Garver pop off the way they can, Lowe has a real shot at 100+ RBI!

Nathaniel’s brother, Josh Lowe gets 35 SB

I didn’t just make this one because they are brothers, I’m totally bought in on Josh as well. I had some concerns about playing time when they didn’t move an outfielder coming out of the lockout. I assumed they would find someone to take on Kevin Kiermaier’s contract by including something nice prospect-wise, but those attempts were futile, so it came down to Austin Meadows, who they moved to Detroit and installed Lowe in his place. He had an amazing 22 HR/26 SB season in 470 PA at Triple-A so I could’ve gone with a hot power/speed prediction him, but I’ll zero in on the speed. He stole 28 bases per 500 PA in the high minors (56 in 989 PA at AA/AAA) so he would certainly have to push his pace or find a way to get 600+ PA. The skills is there, though, and the Rays have the 4th-most SBs in baseball since 2018 (358).

Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 is a top 75 overall hitter

With Kim having triple eligibility, I didn’t want to focus on him finishing somewhere within just one of those positions and then I was just going to say he is an all-formats viable player, but that felt too nebulous, so I settled on top 75 hitter. For reference, Alex Verdugo, Willy Adames, Nicky Lopez, teammate Jake Cronenworth, Ty France, and Josh Bell were in the 75-80 range last year. None of those are great direct comps for Kim’s skillset, but it gives you a general idea of the level of production it takes to get there. I see Kim hitting .275 with 20 HR, 14 SB, 80 R, and 70 RBI. Kind of a diet-Jonathan India or Chris Taylor because while I think Kim can move up the lineup as he performs, I don’t think he will eclipse 90 R the way those two did last year. They finished 57th and 58th, respectively, so a lesser iteration of them can still land in the top 75 easily.

Giovanny Gallegos is a top 5 closer

Gallegos didn’t start closing until September but reeled 11 Saves in 12 chances. We know they Cards don’t plan for him to be the full-time closer, sometimes coming into a fireman situation to quell a 7th or 8th inning problem spot, but that is the case with damn near every closer save five or six so I’m not sure why it is used so harshly against Gallegos while being overlooked for guys around him. As a Cardinal, he has 2.74 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 170.7 innings with a 32% K rate. The Cards have averaged 48 SV per season in the last three full seasons and even if he gets just 55% of those, that’s 26. Pair that count with strong ratios (high-2.00s ERA/sub-1.00 WHIP) and a 30% K rate and that’s a top 5 closer! Think Emmanuel Clase (1.29 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 24 SV, 26% K) and Jordan Romano (2.14 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 23 SV, 34% K) from last year. They were the 5th and 6th ranked closers (5th & 7th among RPs with non-closer Collin McHugh slotting in between them).

José Urquidy posts a top 20 SP season

Health is 100% the key here. Urquidy’s 107 innings last year were a career high as a persistent shoulder issue has sidelined him with three different IL stints since 2020. He is coming into the season healthy and I’m taking a shot on him staying upright long enough to post 150-160 innings. In 177.7 career innings, he has a 3.55 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. His 21% K rate hasn’t been amazing in that time, but the 11% swinging strike rate is enough to push the strikeout rate into the mid-20%s. The blueprint is Chris Bassitt from last year. He posted a 3.15 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 25% K rate (10% SwStr) in 157.3 innings with a 12-4 record.

Sandy Alcantara wins the NL Cy Young

This is everything we look for in a budding superstar arm. He has proven he can take 30+ turns with essentially two 200+ IP seasons (197.3, 205.7). He has the premium velo with a career 96.6 mph fastball (up to 97.9 last year), his slider is emerging as a whiff pitch (career high 20% SwStr in ’21), and he’s trusting the changeup more which will also enhance his strikeouts (career high 23% usage in ’21). His strikeout rate hasn’t quite been in line with the quality of stuff, sitting at just 19% coming into 2021, but then he posted a 24% mark that included a 28% mark in the final 12 starts of the season. It’s all there. Sure, we had to pay for it in the fantasy market, but that’s because a breakout like this is obvious. He was SP22 last year and likely only finished that low because of 9 W. With many expecting him to build upon that, he went SP12 in the Main Event. He will pay that off with an NL Cy Young win in 2022.

I love Joe Ryan and have made that very clear, but felt a bit less bold about including him as he is already in Nick’s and Chad’s pieces. I have him down for 160 IP of a high-3.00s ERA, low-1.00s WHIP, and mid-20%s K rate. The bold prediction would be low-3.00s ERA, sub-1.00 WHIP, and 30%+ K rate. Call it an unofficial extra one!





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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ballfourmember
1 year ago

Very bold! love it.